US Plug-In Electric Car Sales Charted: November 2018

DEC 14 2018 BY MARK KANE 14

No record in volume, but we do see a record in market share.

Just a few hundred sales short of a new all-time record for plug-in electric car sales the in U.S. last month. IEVs data shows 44,148 sales in November, which is 157% more than a year ago! The highest result was in September – 44,589.

Now we are in December, which means all hands on board to achieve 50,000 sales in a single month for the very first time. Fingers crossed.

November bring us one important record as the market share increased to 3.16% (compared to nearly 3.1% in September).

U.S. Plug-In Car Sales – November 2018

Total sales during the first 11 months of 2018 stand at 312,877 at an average market share of 2.0%. It’s the first time in the U.S. that we’ve crossed 300,000 in a single year and maintained 2% average (almost doubled from 2017).

Tesla Model 3 totally dominated 2018 sales and was the first electric car to ever reach more than 100,000 sales in a year.

From such a perspective, almost all of the other cars look like compliance EVs, despite some of them once being market leaders.

The Tesla Model 3 currently represents almost 37% of the total U.S. plug-in electric car market and together with Model S/X, Tesla takes over 50% share (in the 11-month period thus far in 2018).

The LOL chart below, shows that Model 3 is just one month from becoming #3 in cumulative sales, ahead of the Nissan LEAF. Tesla Model X on the other hand successfully overtook the Ford Fusion Energi (61,752 to 60,243).

Finally, here is the presentation of the automakers closest to losing the federal tax credit (Tesla already entered the countdown for the phase-out of the federal tax credit).

GM sold its 200,000th plug-in in November, but maybe just like in the case of Tesla, the federal tax credit counter will reach 200,000th a month later in December. Reaching 200,000 in early January would be more favorable than in late December, because it enables receipt of the full $7,500 tax credit for 3 more months (compared to just a few days).

Categories: Sales, Tesla

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14 Comments on "US Plug-In Electric Car Sales Charted: November 2018"

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Great charts! Thanks very much. Interested to see what 2019 will bring. I expect market share growth will be less dramatic with model 3 about to start exporting but no shortage of new models coming. Exciting times for EV fans!

The Model 3 is definitely the first car to break out of the low volume curiosity level of production. I think VW will follow with some models in a few years that do as well, but might be a while. It took Tesla 8 years to break US cumulative sales of 200,000, and in 6 more months they flew past 300,000.

I think 2019 will be relatively quiet as you say, continued sales of Model 3 (maybe less steep in 2019 vs 2H2018), a few other low volume models. 2020 to 2025 will be a wild ride I think, huge change in the market barring any major global shakeup.

however if Tesla maintains 5k model 3’s sold in the US every week in 2019, that would be 260k for the year, possibly double if not more than 2018 in the US. that could push total plug-in sales to 7-10% market share. we are at the bottom of the S curve, 2018 was a break out year but 2019 will be a game changer with the $35k model 3

Do Not Read Between The Lines

Woo, the LOL Chart!
Thank you.

Chevy Volt, still number 1 for total plug in sales in the US. And it is a dead man walking due to GM’s lack of vision…
And 2 months out of the last 3 see plug ins over 3% of the US Light Duty Vehicle sales, nice! I have a feeling December is going to go out with a bang!

The Volt sells when you can get it for a lot off MSRP then add on tax incentives. Otherwise it doesn’t sell well. It is a great commuter car, but too small and not very practical for anything else.

People don’t understand PHEVs, this is apparent on FB posts whenever a company like Honda or GM promote them. Clarity PHEV for example: “47 mile range, that is terrible, hardly get me down my driveway”. They assume that the vehicle either won’t drive more than that, or that it is useless that the vehicle only has 47 mile electric range even though they could drive 90% all electric on that. They don’t understand that a vast majority of driving is done within 20 miles of their house, so 47 mile electric range will cover all but long trips.

The second argument is it will raise electric bill. I say, yes, my Clarity raised my electric bill $50 a month and lowered my gas bill $300 a month vs my van. They usually don’t post again after that. I will clarify that at 11 cents per kWh it is half as expensive as driving the same car on gas.

The ads mention gas as well. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=r55cPjTMoDM

This is so true. People still just don’t understand PHEVs which is really sad. A PHEV can massively slash your gasoline consumption if it covers most or all of your commute. But people just don’t get it.

And though the Volt will go away, we really need to see more PHEVs in the form of larger cars. But the drop in oil price is probably gonna slow everything down again.

I tell people that I pay around $20 a month for electricity plus about $2 a month for gasoline to fuel my car, for a total fuel bill of $22 a month. That way they know that I have a gas genset and can drive all day when I want to. Most people are dumbstruck, they pay more than that every week for gasoline.

Which month will Model 3’s US deliveries exceed those of Model S? This December, or does it wait for January next year? Or will it take even longer than that? How much of a hit will the Model 3 take in January?

And will Model S overtake the Volt while the Volt is still in production, or will it have to wait until it’s discontinued?

The Model 3 will pass the Leaf in December, and if Model 3 deliveries hit 30K, it will pass the Model S in December too. The Volt probably until January.

Imagine what the graph would be if we had that Rivian pickup truck and SUV, Tesla Model Y and a decent economy car for $20K, with 200 miles of range.

(60 * $145) = $8700
60 kWh is about the minimum you would need to get 200 miles of AER and $145 per kWh (including pack management system) is about as cheap as you can see a pack selling next year, so $20,000 is a bridge too far, for now.

Model-3 is coming close to Leaf in US sales, hopefully in Dec, they will overtake Leaf.
Thanks for these charts.