U.S. Plug-In Electric Car Market Shows Signs Of S-Curve Takeoff
Market share will grow by a few percent annually
The monthly and quarterly sales reports are burdened with seasonal events, which means that a better way to evaluate the progress of the plug-in car market would be a rolling 12-month chart.
Here is such a graph for the U.S., which seems to finally enter the most dynamic phase of growth on the typical S-curve of the diffusion of innovations.
Despite the initial bumps, the real growth is just happening, started by the Tesla Model 3. Tesla Model 3 will not be enough to keep the market expanding, so all hope is that there will be more volume models within 1-2 years.
In the past 12-months, almost 340,000 plug-in electric cars were sold in the U.S. The current pace already exceeds 500,000 sales per year in a country with over one million plug-ins.
At such a pace, we expect 5% market share (up from 3% today and 2% average for 12-months) within 12-18 months.