U.S. Plug-In Electric Car Market Shows Signs Of S-Curve Takeoff

Tesla Model 3

DEC 16 2018 BY MARK KANE 204

Market share will grow by a few percent annually

The monthly and quarterly sales reports are burdened with seasonal events, which means that a better way to evaluate the progress of the plug-in car market would be a rolling 12-month chart.

Here is such a graph for the U.S., which seems to finally enter the most dynamic phase of growth on the typical S-curve of the diffusion of innovations.

Despite the initial bumps, the real growth is just happening, started by the Tesla Model 3. Tesla Model 3 will not be enough to keep the market expanding, so all hope is that there will be more volume models within 1-2 years.

In the past 12-months, almost 340,000 plug-in electric cars were sold in the U.S. The current pace already exceeds 500,000 sales per year in a country with over one million plug-ins.

At such a pace, we expect 5% market share (up from 3% today and 2% average for 12-months) within 12-18 months.

Categories: Sales

Tags: , , ,

Leave a Reply

204 Comments on "U.S. Plug-In Electric Car Market Shows Signs Of S-Curve Takeoff"

newest oldest most voted

Well it’s all been Model 3 so far, take them out of the mix and the rolling average would roll over. I think the Model 3 will continue to be the story for the next 3 years, as nothing in any volumes, seems to be coming along, and even some falling by the wayside as the Chevy Volt has done.

Yup. It’s S curve for Tesla 3. But I’m not sure what will happen with tax credit expiry for Tesla and GM. Will the enthusiasm shift to others for those who can’t afford $7.5K extra? Or what will happen if the orange poo decide to kill the tax credit for everyone?

Our president is definitely in bed with the fossil fuel industry more often than his wife. Don’t forget, the purchase price doesn’t change, it is the tax returns that kick the money back. I would like to see the sales curve broken down by manufacturer.

I was at dinner last night, and at the table next to mine, someone was saying to his group that at some point, when people buy enough electric cars, the electric grid will fail. Who makes up these lies? They aren’t even that good! Every utility pole to every residence has 200 amp service. The capacity is there.

Grid concern came about due to rolling black outs in peak summer days with high electric use. If one considers every gasser as EV overnight without any change to the grid, it will be overwhelming.

But what they don’t realize is that it will be gradual uptake of EV. Grid will adapt to such change as they have in the past. In fact, charging EV under grid control like with smart thermostats could smooth out the power fluctuations and make the grid more reliable with more EV.

Every time there’s a blackout Tesla sells more Solar and Battery Storage units.

California of all states should heavily utilize solar power.

Which does not help the on-demand need of power.

Storage.

Too expensive, and not good enough during national emergency.

Vehicle to Grid can solve that problem. My Tesla can easily power my house for 5 days if allowed.

Storage can come in many forms, doesn’t have to be batteries.

where did I say batteries?
I said too expensive.
Go with hydro and you get the far left fighting that.
Go with air, and you have LIMITED locations.
Batteries work great for locations where electricity price difference make it possible.

Batteries are expensive. But there are many other ways of storing energy that are much cheaper. They need some time to be developed and will come when the market asks for them.

wind, solar array output usually is strongest when demand is high, and it falls to nothing at night when use is lowest. It isn’t a perfect match, but it is pretty close. Solar is getting more cost effective but nukes and wind are still better green sources of power.
And solar still isn’t the best renewable for California, wind power is still better. Which is probably not a coincidence given your moniker…

wind’s strong time is actually around 0300-0500. IOW, middle of the night.
Solar, we all know is day time.
While I support all forms of clean energy (including nukes and wind), my login was actually from our sailboat that we raced. Windbourne took a number of trophies including against a gentleman that won multiple golds in multiple years (though in different class).

“wind’s strong time…” being at night is correct, but wind blows somewhere all the time, day or night. I just wish we could time travel and buy the cheaper solar arrays that will probably start arriving in 3 or 4 years.
Green power should come from a wide variety of complementary sources, nukes, hydro, wind and solar, because each has its own strengths and weaknesses. Sounds like we agree on that.
I used to own an 8 meter S2 way back in the day. Good fun. Never raced though.

Nice on the S2. I assume on Mich? Racing is a kick. I esp loved frostbite series. Just to stay warm and not have the water on your turn to ice, you have to keep moving. Loads of work/fun. Great when you win; sux when you lose.

Yeah, we have 10KW of solar on our house, wife drives the Tesla model S, and we have added extra insulation. I am slowly adding aerogel based windows on north side of home and will switch to geothermal HVAC when prices come down.

In America, we really do have a wide degree of possible clean energy, and yet, the dems are forcing us down the path of just wind/solar which is just plain stupid. In fact, NASA has already said that we should be adding loads of geo-thermal energy around yellow stone to build back up the crust. In light of how thin it is now, and very possibly could be set off with large bombs, we NEED things like Nuke power.
The good place to put those nukes are about 100 miles inland from ocean and then use the water from the ocean for cooling AND desalinated drinking.

I calculated this. Typical car 12000 miles a year, 1000 miles a month, 33 miles a day. EV gives 4 miles a kWh. For two cars it is 16 kWh per night. 8 hours to charge two cars, you are at 2 kW. What is 2 kW? Electric cook top coils 2 kW, toaster ovens, microwaves 1.5 kW. Baseboard heaters 2 to 4 kW. Ceramic portable heaters 2 kW. Typical A/C unit 2 kW.

What if ALL the homes in the neighborhood charge their cars simultaneously? Don’t they already run their A/C simultaneously, for extended periods of time? The grid has plenty of capacity to handle this.

Yes you would think power companies would love this; it increases demand at the time of day when they usually waste a bunch of money just idling power plants. The blackouts happen during the afternoon when it’s hot and everyone has AC on as well as everything else, not at night when only the AC is running.

Not only do the power companies love it, but the EIA studies (multiple) showed that this will lower the COSTS of electricity/grid. Of course, lowering costs does not not mean lowering price. 🙂

Which EVSE is 2kW? I know 1kW/1.44kW L1, 3.3/6.6/7.2 kW L2. I don’t know of any 2kW units. In fact, most EVSE I know are 6kW+ units.

As for grid handling it if everyone switch to EV today, yeah, the rolling black outs in summer must be because people are not using enough electricity. *rolls eyes*

All level one charging is done at 1.4kW.

How many many charge at 1.4kW? Almost everyone charge at 6.6kW, few 3.3kW, I know of no one who use 1.4kW.

At our house we draw just over 10kw every night from 10 pm to roughly 2-3 am. Our usage cent from 300kwh per month to 1000 kWh per month by adding two ev’s. The grid can absorb a lot of night time charging, but that will mostly be non renewable. The real problem will be people who want to fast charge during peak hours.

If ALL gassers convert to EV, industry will draw just as much power at night to charge their EV as they did during the day to power their other stuff.

Most Volt owners charge at night at 12 amps/240 volts. Heck, some of us don’t even bother to re-set to 12 amps and charge at 8 amps/240 volts. So 2880 watts or 1,920 watts. I think about 60% of Volt owners use the level 1 charge cord if memory serves. And the Volt is the best selling electric vehicle ever in the USA.
The downside to BEV energy demand is early evening when we all get home we all tend to plug in and start charging immediately, which is while the AC units are still working full blast and pegging the electricity demand curve.
On a tangent: If we could make air conditioning even more energy efficient, it would make present electrical generation facilities more able to cope with peak electricity demand. But that would take years to achieve… End of mental ramble…

“On a tangent: If we could make air conditioning even more energy efficient, it would make present electrical generation facilities more able to cope with peak electricity demand.”

Hence why we need geo-thermal HVAC, along with pushing ppl to charging during off-peak time.

Sadly, so many ppl here do not realize that electrical prices can and will go up if we put higher demands on during the current highest demands.

BoltEV – do you really believe that? The rolling blackouts generally happen because of simultaneous peak electricity use. EVs don’t all charge at full rate when the temp is 99%ile.
It doesn’t matter if your EVSE is 6 kw or 10 kw. Not everyone plugs in at the same time.
Now – we do need to smarten up about things. We can’t have everyone get home at 6-7pm and plug their cars in. Especially if they change their thermostats and start cooking. But this is such an easy fix. It is just TOU. Economically incentivize people to charge after 9 pm. But you also can’t do everyone at exactly 9 pm. But again – not a hard problem to solve.
I suspect we will have grid controlled charging — and you will override when needed. You will be limited on your overrides or pay a hefty fine.
The other thing we will need is chargers at work as solar gets bigger. Again grid controlled. Sunny mild day and everyone leaves work with a full charge. Cloudy day predicted – charge more overnight. Super hot day predicted – charge more overnight.

Yes, current grid can’t handle about double the peak load. People and/or grid operators have to finagle things to accommodate EV, and even that’s not clear if the grid can handle it if everyone switching to EV tonight with no change in grid.

The EIA studies in America shows that the grid can handle at MOST 25% of our road vehicles during the daytime. We need 75% of vehicle charging to be at night.
But all of those studies show that during daytime charging, the real problem instantaneous demand can be a real issue. Trucks will take 1+MW. And if Germany pushes .5MW on cars, grid costs will go through roof as it gets redesigned.

That study presumed no battery buffering at chargers. But Tesla has been testing using batteries in between the rid and superchargers for about 5 years now. It greatly reduces peak demand, which is all that matters when calculating grid capacity.

Not study, but multiple studies.

again, for those of you modding me down, the studies are spot on. That is why I have posted over and over about the nightmare that hybrids and low MPC vehicles will cause us. One of the biggest issues, is that these will raise the PRICE of electricity if done too much in the daytime.
What 2 of the studies missed (I did not read the other 3), are the idiots pushing for 300-500 KW chargers. If German legacy makers push these through with .5MW chargers, our electricity costs are going to go up. The reason is that daytime electricity IS maxed out, esp. in the summers.

“grid costs will go through roof as it gets redesigned.” But luckily the power companies will be thrilled to do so with their new windfall of profits from selling tons of extra electricity.

All a utility needs is to offer a Night Time Discount to charge, and you’re get EV charge shifting to nighttime in the same time it takes Superman to jump to the top of the tallest skyscraper in Gotham City.

Night time or daytime? Surely with abundant solar electricity the best time to charge in the future will be midday while parked at work etc?

Flexibility is what we need. Weather forecasts and fluctuating charging costs.
Fun fact – in winter in NC, 1-4 pm is off peak.

From your “analysis” it would seem that No Utility would ever sign up ANY Commercial Business, the grid is so fragile.

I’m guessing your dead wrong.

not me.
EIA.
ANd I will trust their studies over ppl like you.

EIA statistics have had very poor prediction value since they were created.

I agree that EIA PREDICTIVE stats on future fuel usage is really bad. If they were believed, we would never have wind/solar.

However, studies are different than predictions.

I am a EV supporter but dude, seriously? The grid has plenty of capacity to handle total conversion to EVs without massive expansion? In many areas the grid is marginal as it is now. For example people will still run their A/C simultaneously for extended periods of time during hot weather AND charge their EVs at the same time. Serious upgrade is needed and hopefully it will precede the EV revolution by a step or two.

Every ‘calculation’ in the ‘oh nothing must change because its scary’ fails to account for the electricity used in providing gas electric and diesel.

Avoided electricity is about 40% of the electricity a bev would use for equivalent car.

Read the study skeptically if you can’t find where they bias the calcs I will.

Have you ever heard of TOU?
I had TOU at my last house (because of a solar rebate) and I charged only during off peak. Now I don’t, so I charge whenever I want. I could be changed back in a NY minute.
Every EV has a timer because of this anticipated eventuality (and reality in CA).

David, That is really the important part.
We NEED to have transportation done at off-hours (which BTW, is not necessarily night-time).
BUT, the problem comes in, with these super chargers adding huge amounts during peak time. 6 x 450 kw is a LOT OF ENERGY/POWER. Germany, and in general, the CCS ppl, are building our superchargers in the cities, rather than BETWEEN the cities. It is BETWEEN that is needed.

“We NEED to have transportation done at off-hours (which BTW, is not necessarily night-time).”

I believe the “off-hours” are now during the day in California because they have so much solar.

Don’t burden people with math and facts. The earth will clearly explode if we all have EVs and all turn them on at once.
/s

I did the math, every car instantly changing to EVs would only increase demand about 20%. Sure , it will peak higher but not much.

Average energy for passenger cars, maybe. But peak power (not energy) demand, will be far higher without smart EVSE. 6.6kW EVSE is probably the highest power “appliance” you have at home.

It would probably be a good idea to put batteries in homes then as well. Tesla says you can have up to 10 Powerwall unit’s in one home, that’s 135kWh of energy storage. 70kW peak load capability and 50 continuous(more than any reasonable home will ever need).
Now, if you combine this with a 24kW solar array, you will be able to provide electric power to even a large home(3200ft^2), and be able to charge tow EV’s(assuming you drive 100 miles per day and get 4 miles/kWh, will consume 25kWh to charge, times 2 EV’s is 50kWh).

In fact a setup like that(135kWh battery, 25kW solar array, 9.6kW EVSE), if you live in a sunny area, you could even disconnect from the grid entirely. Since Powerwall can operate as an island, and run your house during a power outage, that’s as simple as shutting off the main breaker coming from the power grid.

IMO once batteries become cheaper and last a bit longer, that might just be the norm for all of these huge houses(McMansions). Why connect to the grid when solar+battery can handle any kind of power consumption you can think of?

No, my heat pumps aux heater is 7.7kwh. hot water heater is up there to.

Good for you. My biggest user is 1 kW AC unit. Most houses have nat gas for heating. That means for most people, 6.6kW (or even 1.4kW L1) is by far the heaviest user of electricity.

Aux electric heat is higher (10kw). Dryer, oven and hot water heater are all 4-5 kw so pretty darn close. My 2 a/c units were 7kw together – but strictly speaking less than 6 each.

Most houses have nat gas for heating and cooking. If you remove heat / cook, 6.6 kW EVSE is roughly double the largest appliance (single A/C unit) they have.

actually, no. It depends on where you live. For example, back east, most homes use oil for heat. Get south of NY, and it is mostly Electricity for heat AND cooking.

I said most, not minor parts of NY, but most of US / world.

Wrong. Germany is pushing 450 KW stations. So, assume just 6 stations at 1 location. That is just under 3 MW. You realize that most small towns in America use 2-3 MW. Right?

And then add in 1MW stations for truckers.

Tesla thought it through with 120 KW.
Germany and their allies, like ford, are being idiots.

Hmm, that 450kW per stall, only needs to be maintained for 15 minutes to charge even a large EV. So for 6 stalls that 3MW(which is assuming *all* stalls are in use at once) also only needs to be maintained for 15 minutes. Now, for 3MW for 15 minutes is 750kWh, so you need a battery that can store at least 750kWh, and be able to discharge at 4C. Charging can take 1 hour. 1 hour to charge a 750kWh battery means the peak load on the grid is only 750kW. A single Tesla Powerpack stores 210kWh. So 4 of them can store 840kWh. That should be enough to run the stations. It get’s even better than this. You could use 6 batteries to have 1.26MWh, and then you can run the stations *and* help balance the power grid(when there is excess power on coming onto the grid, you charge the batteries. When the grid needs extra power, you discharge the batteries and send power back to the grid). Also, back to the chargers, you can also go the EVgo Baker, CA route. Put up a 25kW solar array, and that drops your peak daytime loads by an additional 25kW,… Read more »

So, not only are you not an engineer, but you do not own a tesla since you do not not understand that those stalls will be busy, esp. during the highest time of electrical demand.

1. its 350kW, not 450KW
2. whats the difference? 35 charging at 120kW or 12 at 350kW? When you charge the same amount of cars, of course you need the same amount of energy, but when you have more power at one stall, you need less stalls->exactly the same amount of power is necessary.
3. Germany has around 20GW of gas-fired power plants as a never-used backup
4. Germanys grid is much more evolved than that of other countries like that old grid in the US and is currently expanded

i see the word, that begins with an i sitting at another desk, than you think

https://insideevs.com/fastcharge-now-evaluating-450-kw-charging/
https://www.theverge.com/2018/12/14/18140868/fastcharge-porsche-bmw-450kw-electric-vehicle-charging-station

That 20 GW will not help you out when you get hit with 2-4 cars pulling in at same time and increasing to 1.5-2 MW. That is why batteries help to deal with sudden power demands.

That ‘old’ grid of US, is 8 (or is it 10) different grids and are in differing capabilities.

Catch up with the times.

Those rolling blackouts were 100% manufactured.

Below is an excerpt from Wikipedia on the topic.

California had an installed generating capacity of 45 GW. At the time of the blackouts, demand was 28 GW. A demand supply gap was created by energy companies, mainly Enron, to create an artificial shortage.

CA WAS manufactured. None of the rest were (which were mostly 60’s and 70’s).
The only reason why we do not suffer blackouts now, is that our economy has not been growing, so electricity use has not either.
BUT, switching transportation over, WILL make that happen.

“…someone was saying to his group that at some point, when people buy enough electric cars, the electric grid will fail. Who makes up these lies?”

They probably originate at some Big Oil propaganda mill — the so-called “think tanks” — but they are eagerly spread by those who post anti-Tesla pravduh to social media.

That particular bit of anti-EV pravduh has been around awhile. See:

https://www.plugincars.com/ev-haters-guide-hating-electric-cars-107560.html

While some of that DOES come from the haters, we WILL have issues in about 4-6 years. The reason is that so many ppl here refuse to address it.
Not much different than what we see in our roads today.

“Our president is definitely in bed with the fossil fuel industry more often than his wife.”
Comedy Gold.

All policy dictated by highest bidder.
Even this inhuman and immoral child separation policy, paid for by the Retention Center Industry. The quality of Republican “leadership” has dropped into the gutter.
Trump will never make America great again if he determines policy by corporate bribe/campaign contributions.

But, a big thanks to the US Supreme Court which has allowed this type of policy decision making thru Citizens United where Corporatists have more Legal Means to Control the government Against the People.

This is the wrong forum for this discussion but since you brought it up, the US is 2 or 3 Democratic Administrations away from becoming a Third World country. Good luck.

What country is it that you reside in?

my friend, mr trump just blew up the deficit back into trillion dollar range without taking us to war. if we’re on our way to the third world (usually people that say this, havent actually visited third world)

then mr trump is the conductor/train engineer and plowing ahead at full steam! also see for instance family in top jobs… that’s usually a poor-country/dictator thing to do.

also, mr website admin, i autocomplete the form it tell me i didnt type an “@” in email. this is a bug. gl fixing it.

I don’t know. The economy tends to do better under a Dem president. Under Reagan and Bush we had marginal growth and a major stock market crash. Under Clinton we had steady growth which ended with a surplus when he left office. Bush W trashed the economy and blew up the deficit. We ended up with the worst crash since the 1920’s. Then we had record growth under Obama. Trump inherited a great economy which he is doing everything to destroy. Stupid tariffs and tax cuts are not helping. We’ll see what happens. Maybe Trump will buck the trend of Repub Presidents trashing the economy.

Yes, ‘big money’ ‘gathers’ a lot of wealth from the middle class during crises.
My guess is that the 1% will make all of us go though the next crisis very soon, to steal some more.

Every Republican president since Reagan has had a recession.
They’re doing something wrong. Again policy decisions don’t belong under Corporate Control.

Norway isn’t a third world country by a long shot.

Democratic?
Considering that the lack of maintenance comes from the GOP, I would say no.

I would say that EV’s are a boon to grid operators. Most EV charging is done at night when generation and distribution capacity is under utilized. This allows a higher capacity utilization factor that provides for profits and necessary grid modernization.

Bingo. It should also enable utilities to add more nuclear, and drop the expensive nat. gas peaking plants.

Solar & Storage already cheaper than natural gas.
Nuclear is a very expensive energy source, although cleaner as long as you don’t get a catastrophic event. Which will also be a regional catastrophic economic event, causing a local depression as it would kill all local business.

Nuclear killed itself with massive cost overruns.
There’s no excuse for concrete and steel structures to be so massively over budget. There will never be another nuclear fiasco financed in America if the tax payer get’s wind of it first.

Also, it costs just as much to decommission a nuclear facility as to build it.
Let that scary thought sink in. Massive cost overruns on both ends coming out of taxpayer pocket.

And still not long term storage of waste product.
Fukushima was “storing” their extra waste on the roof.

They are building two massive reactors in Georgia as we speak, can’t you use Google before you post? It does not cost as much to decommission as to build, all those costs are figured into the cost of electricity, they produce massive amounts 24/7 for 60 to 80 years, with out Carbon Dioxide,but personally ,I do not favor those huge plants and want the new type like the NuScale 45MW in group of 13 can be trucked to the job site, and work well with wind and solar.
As long as people do not care about the environment,sure use natural gas and coal, but if you want a low Carbon future we should use advanced nuclear that works well with wind and solar.

Those plants in Georgia don’t counter his point at all. They are years late and horrifically over budget.

Don’t forget what is coming with SMR. NuScale really should be replacing coal and nat gas plants TODAY.

We need more and faster R&D being done on reactors in the 50-500 mW region.

Yes. It’s a lie.

In 2016 the total US consumption of electricity was 4,137.1 terawatt-hours (TWh)

U.S. DOT estimates about 3.2 trillion miles driven in 2016.

Say average 3 miles per kWh.

If all 3.2 trillion vehicle miles were converted to electric it would take an extra 1066 TWh

So it would take about 25% more electricity.

But this won’t happen overnight. Even the most optimistic scenario say 100% new sales are EVs by 2030 and maybe 2040 to retire the remaining ICE fleet.

Therefore United States has only 22 years to increase electricity generation by 25%.

So about 1% per year. Hardly a catastrophe in the making.

Yet AC in summer result in blackouts. Instead of energy, talk about power, because that’s what matters. 6.6kW probably more than doubles typical peak power usage at home. If every ICE becomes EV overnight, we’re talking easily double the demand on grid.

What utility has consistent summer power blackouts caused by AC usage?

I think some Californians still think Enron is in charge of CA electric grid. Times have changed people! I had one blackout in the past 10 years here in SoCal and it was for half day in winter due to a transformer.

Apparently, you don’t live in SoCal. There were rolling blackouts this past summer.

JB Pro 40 EVSE monitors the grid and will stop charging during peak demand saving it’s owners money and peak demand load.

Blackouts are a result of poor planning and/or a lack of proper investment in infrastructure by humans… which is just another way of saying poor planning.

The EV revolution isn’t going to cause poor planning to happen; neither is it going to stop it from happening.

“Blackouts are a result of poor planning”

Actually in California they were the result of illegal manipulation and they were planned. See The Enron chapter.

As someone who had an energy monitor on my house for 5 years with 2 EVs for much of that time, you are strictly speaking correct. But that is irrelevant.
20 cars on a street are not plugged in at the same time or drawing power at the same time. So the transformer will not see that peak.
Please look at the electricity use at 5 pm in the summer and then compare to 10 pm. The difference is more than double. We currently probably use 20% of our capacity on the average night. So even if we tripled that, it is not a problem.
Factories don’t use power at 10pm. Stores are not open at 10pm so their lights are off. A/C is not needed at stores and factories at 10pm. People don’t shower at 10 pm so their hot water heaters aren’t running. But 12 pm – all the lights, computers and TVs are shut down. Oh yeah – and even the residential a/c is off.

Again, this thread is assuming everyone convert to EV overnight. Then grid won’t be able to handle it.

As for factories shutting off, they will charge their EV during that time. Demand from them will be roughly the same if not more when you consider their EV will be huge battery trucks and other heavy equipment.

Thanks Scott nice information.

Minus the 40% of ev demand by not providing gas and diesel.

“So about 1% per year. Hardly a catastrophe in the making.”

Thanks for that reality check! (And thumbs-up)

Actually, if the 300-450 kw chargers happen for cars, it WILL cause grid issues. Even the semi-truck 1MW chargers are a serious issue.

Since the west is killing off nuke power plants, it will likely cause power companies to reopen coal plants. That is a big reason why china is adding mostly coal instead of nuke/renewable. By end of 2020, china will add another 250 GW to their current 1.1+ TW

Again. You’ve never heard of commercial demand for electric power?
This is a small commercial project for your local utility.
They DO IT ALL THE TIME.

We needs to shut down all the high-rises and colleges in America if the local utility can’t handle the demand for new construction.

Nonsense. Nothing is going to bring back burning coal. Many coal-fired power plants have been converted to burn natural gas. If more of that needs to be done, then it will be. In fact, it’s already happening.

Something often overlooked here is how much electricity it takes to make gasoline. There are many variables and it is difficult to generalize, but making gasoline takes a lot of electricity for sure. Obviously, when that gas is not manufactures, the kWh’s become available for other uses, like charging EV’s

This page suggests 6kwh to make a gallon of gas. You could drive an EV 18 miles on the energy it takes to make one gallon of gas, if correct. I know nothing about the credibility of the site.

https://greentransportation.info/energy-transportation/gasoline-costs-6kwh.html

Where exactly does that electricity come from? Is is spread all over the US, or is it mostly located in places like LA, Houston, Oklahoma, Carolina’s? And will the oil companies simply shut down the refineries, and stop using electricity, or will they simply keep pumping oil and shift gas/diesel to other nations/fracture higher chains and make cheaper plastic?

Most in refining, but substantial in pumps for pipelines and gas pumps.

oil will get cheaper but you see some producers suffer when prices get too low. i think oil will go on fire-sale as big oil companies see their customers buy electric. then it will become super-expensive for all the folks that still fly airplanes or heat with diesel like in the northeast.

Some mine operators are switching to electric vehicles and solar installed locally at the mining site.

Have no idea where I am in curve or income, but would have bought with or without rebate.

Do Not Read Between The Lines

Nobody’s matching the overall Model 3 offer, which is including performance, AWD and 300 mile range, as well as having more volume available. You can’t really say what would happen without it, because it’s such a gorilla in the market and so must affect other sales.

Consider any EV as a gasser and compare to similar priced gasser. Model 3 comes out competitive, so does Bolt on sale (~$25K post subsidy) against Focus ST, GTI, etc. Can’t say the same for most others.

So is the Leaf….if you ever bothered to look.

but you can’t take it to the cottages north of toronto… maybe this kona tho.

And if you look, Leaf accelerates like Fit, not Bolt. Heck, Leaf is even slower than SparkEV.

It already is impacting markets. The fact that ice sedan sales are way off, but M3 continues to grow, shows it is not sedan sales, but ice sales.

It’s sedan buyers moving to CUVs. Look at the numbers.

Ford CEO “Everyone is seeing a drop in car sales”. That would be wrong, everyone but Tesla is seeing a drop in car sales.

Secondly, the CUV increase is not making the lost numbers of car sales.
The Tesla Effect has started. I’m waiting for a lower price point for the Model 3 or for a lease offer myself.

Leasing is very popular in the North-East USA.

Do you have any evidence for the second paragraph over the entire industry? Sedan sales have been falling for five years now, the direction has little to do with the Model 3.

Perhaps you’re confusing a ramp up and sating of back ordered demand for for actual real time demand?

As an example BMW are on track to sell MORE vehicles this year than last year in the US – their sedan sales have fallen again (as they have since around 2014), but their CUV sales are up YOY. Audi are on track to sell more cars in the US than they ever have.

http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/bmw/
http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/Audi/

Why does my comment need moderation. Is leasing a bad word?

Hopefully, they kill subsidy. If not, then it should be changed to time base.

For the person that modded me down on the subsidy, what I wrote is exactly what Elon wants.

Right because it makes his cars less competitive.

time based would make sense, why reward laggards and punish pioneers with a sales limit, make it apply to entire market by sales or time instead.

Far better is kill the subsidy and instead raise the gas/diesel taxes to where they support road, dam, and bridge maintenance.

i am poor. but when vw sells entry level ice at 10,000 and nissan the same with versa, … it is a very big ask to say but “gas-savings!”

True – but that be logical and reasonable. And we are talking about the federal govt.

Likely Tesla can introduce new models with lower starting prices as they continue to ramp up production over next two years. Tax credit is probably less of a influence on the consumer’s decision at this point.

Elon has said repeatedly that he doesn’t want Tesla to build an inexpensive car. He wants to keep the Tesla cachet. But I would bet dollars to doughnuts that eventually Tesla forms a Scion-like production team that builds electric cars at one of the Tesla factories but that carries a cheaper nameplate and has a base model that costs less than $30,000.

The Model Y is next with big volume.
Then the Pickup.

Model Y will be big. I expect the Pickup is going to be about as popular as the Model S.

Are you kidding? Probably right in Europe but in USA about 80% of new light vehicle sales are pick-up trucks or large truck-like SUVs. Yes Rivian will be swamped with orders and won’t be able to manufacturer enough for years. Unfortunately when the new Tesla pickup arrives it will be aimed at the same high end market as the Rivian, and it will do well too, but when the low price version comes out it will make Model 3 sales look insignificant.

never thought of the pick-up type to be the ecological type. why not just buy a ford with a bigger engine if you have money for rivian? remember the roll coal guys? they weren’t modding mustangs!

The Coal Rolling guys are a small minority though. Most people have trucks because then need something with those capacities (most trucks are still bought by contractors for example).

Make a reasonable ranged electric full size with standard truck capacities (towing and payload), for a REASONABLE price (averaging around ~$40) and it will sell bucket loads.

Sure. If Tesla can pull a 400 mile Truck out of the bag for $30-40k then it will be big. If it’s $100k like the Model X and the Rivian it’s not going to sell anywhere near as many.

Rivian will likely make an impact.

Rivian will likely take the top 1% of the market.
Tesla will likely takes the top 2%-25% of the market.

Rivian will likely not have any significant impact because of very low production, at least thru 2020. It will be interesting to see if they can ramp up production rapidly. I will hope so, but realistically I doubt any new EV startup is going to be able to ramp up production as fast as Tesla, which is the 600-lb gorilla in the room that’s gobbling up much if not most of the investor money that’s available to fledgling EV auto makers.

Tesla has had a very difficult time in succeeding as a new brand in the highly competitive U.S. new car market. And now that Tesla is expanding its market rapidly, that’s going to be even more competitive for newer EV makers.

Don’t get me wrong; I certainly hope Rivian succeeds and gives Tesla some real competition. But most startups fail. Tesla beat the odds, but that doesn’t give other EV startups better odds.

“Tesla, which is the 600-lb gorilla in the room that’s gobbling up much if not most of the investor money that’s available to fledgling EV auto makers.”

There is a really good chance this is incorrect. Tesla has proven that EVs can compete in most markets, and they have largely validated the business model as possible. There is a lot of money to made and Rivian has targeted segments without much announced movement currently.

To be clear, I am only disputing the idea that Tesla is gobbling up the available money.

Rivian doesn’t need to produce in large numbers if it’s starting price is $80,000.
They will be creaming the crop of pickup sales and profits, though.
This will take away the most profitable, fully optioned pickup sales away from GM and Ford. That in and of itself will have an effect on the market.

Yes, the Y next ,but they haven’t even picked a place to build it, three years to get big production numbers, people can buy that Hundai today.

People could lease that hyundai today, would be the better plan.
Even better make it a 2 year lease.

Too bad Tesla is a luxury brand and the cheapest car sells for $46000.

Nissan should have put 60kwh leaf in the market in 2018.

Tesla will be at 35K shortly. When it does, leaf, BMW i3, etc are in trouble.

No, Toyota and Honda are in trouble. It is ICEs that will die, other EVs will prosper.

The BMW i3 is a niche market where the buyer understands it’s a pocket rocket great for city/suburban commute. It’s apparently rare in America to pick the right car for the job it does 99% of the time.

60kwh Leaf will not be cooled.

But strange how people assume people won’t understand the radically lower running costs.

Nope. Add in MY in 2019/20. Tesla will have at least 1/year by 2021. Legacy makers will have 6-12 that are real ones, by 2022. By real ones, I’m not talking about the 20k POS they sell for 30-40k today.

The only car company planning to invest the necessary billions is VW.
So, Audi and VW may give them some competition.
That’s it.

Nope. VW is simply continuing with 10B / year for 5 years. The fact that they BS with the numbers shows even they do not believe it.

i agree. let’s see their battery factory first. i do feel bad for these manufacturing jobs, if their union’s right about less assembly-hours. vw does employ some of the most people per production it seems. will those greasemonkeys all turn into app-developers?

Well, if it isn’t VW and Audi, then it’s nobody.
That’s a shock.

There is 60,000 Chrysler Pacifica phevs to go. Nissan 60kwhr leaf.
& increased production stateside of the bolt now batteries are produced locally.

Ravian vehicles and MY will all add to this over the next 2=3 years.
Likewise, add Porsche in there on 2020.

Rivians production forecast is 50,000 vehicles by 2025. Companies like Hyundai, Jaguar and Audi are going to be producing more.

Lack of products hurts adoption more than anything. I gave Nissan 100 dollars to reserve a leaf back in ‘10, but I opted out when I realized the range wasn’t 100 miles. We bought a volt instead. Now we have an ELR. My wife is ready for an all electric vehicle, but I’d like to replace our cx-5. Still nothing in that price range with awd and the crossover form that I like. So I’ll continue to wait. I’m sure the model y will tick these boxes, but I do have concerns about Tesla servicing all these cars.

The BMW i3 leases better than a Bolt, and is a very fun drive. 150 miles of range, and if you need it a REX option, also a Sport option.

The Model 3 and the i3 are the only serious driver cars out there.

We drove an i3 rex and a bolt. It’s not a good replacement for a small cuv. We get so much utility out of our CX-5 I can’t replace it with something smaller. We have a grandson in an infant car seat. Putting that into the i3 or even the bolt isn’t going to work. I like the higher hip point of a CUV which is a selling point that isn’t discussed enough. My mother has a difficult time with entry and exit into a car. I wish the Rav 4 was available as a 40 mile PHEV.

The ELR is a car we’ll hang onto for a while. Driving it is like dating the prettiest girl in school. Everywhere we go people can’t help but stare. It was a huge hit at the drive electric event. In a sea of leafs, bolts, and Teslas plenty of people wanted to see it.

The ELR is an excellent car. No question.
The i3 may not meet your current needs, but, I’m talking about the general market.
The i3 does have the higher seating, and exit and entry ease of a CUV. Unless you and your wife are very tall, there should be sufficient room for an infant car seat in the i3. It fits 4 adults pretty well.

Yet the ELR has an even Bigger Problem for Back Seat: The Entry, and the Head Room for Adults!

The I3 remains a pure POS like leaf, bolt, etc.

LOL.

oops. I commented in here already.

Why? I put my M3 in for service back in July, in Sunnyvale, the middle of Silicon Valley. They were clearly busy but got the job done. They actually LOOKED at and evaluated the issue, using car logs. Contrast that with my GM service visit which was the typical “its not doing that now, so we can’t help you” in response to a charging issue. And for a bonus, they managed to lose part of the car in the process (a fuse panel door).

Most of the “knocks” I have heard against Tesla are of the “they seem very busy” type posts. Did you expect them to be sleeping at their desks there?

Yes, I’m sure by the time the model y is being produced in volume the viability of Tesla will be understood. My biggest gripe in general is that more than 10 years after the volt concept hit the stage in LA we still don’t have much choice. I understand why, but I don’t have to like it.

Tesla service isn’t anything to be concerned about. Scanning through “Tesla Service” news over the past year, it looks like there were a lot of stories about repairs taking forever up until about three months ago. Seems like those stories promptly stopped once Musk said the company was opening their own dedicated body shops. There’s only been a single story about repairs taking awhile in the last month.

Given anything negative about Tesla is put through an insane loud speaker, it suggests that problem has been dealt with.

On the plus: Consumer Reports set Tesla Model 3 and BMW i3 as : RECOMMENDED for 2019.

I hope you’re right! 🙂 It does seem like “no news is good news” applies to the EV industry, too.

Relax about servicing. They are building more and faster. Once M3 is in full swing, Tesla will have a number of service stations around their area.

Model3 Owned- Niro EV TBD -Past-500e and Spark EV,

New quality products came online/available this past year beyond the daily 2+2 commuter car — Outlander, Pacifica, Niro are prime examples. PHEV will continue to bridge the gap until a proper charging infrastructure is in place for both urban and distance travel folk

It’s all the announcements of new plug-in EVs coming in 2020-2022 which have convinced me that the S-curve of adoption during a disruptive tech revolution has finally taken off. Of course, the question there is volume. This article claims “Market share will grow by a few percent annually”, but I question growth is going to be that rapid for the next couple of years, at least. There are reports of battery makers building new factories and producing more EV batteries per year, but not nearly enough to see the market grow that fast… yet. Let’s remember that the bottom end of the S-curve (where we are currently) shows accelerating exponential growth. I expect it will take at least a few more years until we actually see market share growing at “a few percent” every year.

https://carteblancheleeway.files.wordpress.com/2010/04/s-curve.gif

How do you put images in here?

[IMG] http link to your image [/IMG]
You have to store your image on the internet with tinypic or imagur, then you put the link in between.
https://www.wikihow.com/Upload-Images-in-BBCode

If you don’t Buy Innovation, you won’t get Innovation.
Thank you California Buyers for making this market.

Your welcome, proud early adopter of a 2012 Volt, 2017 Bolt and now a 2018 Model 3!

https://d2t6ms4cjod3h9.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/111-78.png

2018 will have 3 months in which the monthly Plug-In sales number will have been more than 40,000 each (September, November and December).

How many months will there be in 2019 in which the monthly Plug-In sales number will be more than 40,000 each?

How about 6?

I’ll really consider the electric car revolution as having taken off when InsideEVs stops conflating cars with plugs with EVs in general. If it has a tailpipe, its NOT an EV.

The growth is entirely due to cars without tailpipe.

The Tesla Model 3.

Mainly, yes, but also other BEV to minor degree.

Tesla, not just Model 3.

Not every state is California.
I consider the Prius Prime an EV. And the drivers who buy it use it’s 20 miles of range every day making it an EV with a gas engine backup.

I’ve leased the BMW i3 REX and I’ve needed the additional range of the gas engine 1 time per year. So sue me for that additional burn of 2 gallons, that fails your “definition”.

Yet, a Bolt may have done just fine for you, and it has no “Trapped” doors in back!

If you can live with the Bolt I’m happy for you.
But, plastic interior, poor seat design, torsion beam “suspension”. I’m too old for that “suspension”.

But, also, realistically, I don’t need the range of the Bolt. I’m quite happy with 4X my daily commute in battery capacity. I don’t get range anxiety. But, I do fill up the battery when it drops below 40%. That’s my trigger to charge.

Spoken as one who does not have, or has even seen in person, a Bolt. I can tell because you are just echoing nonsense you saw on the web.

I’ve been trying to persuade InsideEVs to graph BEVs and PHEVs separately. At least now they identify BEVs in the Plug-in Sales Scorecard with a battery symbol. Maybe starting 2019 they will split the bars with two colors etc.https://insideevsforum.com/community/index.php?attachments/bevsales-png.1503

You mean: If it has a tailpipe, it’s not a BEV.

Thank goodness InsideEVs covers all types of PEVs — plug-in EVs — and not just BEVs. The EV market needs a broader range of EVs. Shrinking the market to cater only to “EV purists” would be several giant steps backward.

No, I mean if it has a tailpipe it is not an EV. EV = Electric Vehicle. No, not Partial, Hybrid, Kinda, Plugs in, sort kinda. EV. Get it? ****E******FORKING*****V.

I could ALMOST accept a seriues hybrid like I3 as an EV. After all, it really does run most of the time on electric.
BUT, Scott has this right. If it has a tailpipe, it is NOT an EV. It remains a Friging ICE vehicle.

I agree about EV definition. However, car makers do not. At least so far.

How do you put images in here?

As I said before, but was shot down, by 2022-3, the new sales market will be over 50%, if not over 75%, EVs. Few will want ICE, in particular, because resale is a disaster already on those. The problem is that because legacy car makers are years, if not a decade behind, car sales in the west will plummet. Rich to middle clasd ppl will wait to buy an EV. The lower middle to poor, will wait to buy the cheap used POS ICE vehicles from the rich. In the next 3-4 years, we will see western sales go below 1/2 of today’s. In china, it will still go up, and ICE will remain the norm.

I think your numbers are a little aggressive but I agree ice sales may plummet before enough EVs are available. Personally I’m already in this category holding onto a 12 year old ice I want to sell but no reasonable priced ev ready yet. I’ll stretch it a couple more years until an ev is avavible. For sure I won’t buy another ICE.

ICE sales have already dropped, with people waiting for that perfect or perfectly priced EV.
CUV / SUV sales have not made up for the numbers drop.

economy is petal to the metal to a cliff…
Thank putin’s pal
car sales have long been a leading indicator.

Tesla car sales have not dropped.
EV car sales have not dropped.

There’s the other side of the coin.
Tesla car sales look like the economy will roar.

You can not trust car sales for the economy, esp. since it is a late indicator.
Before 9/11, I used to use aircraft loads, and business land-lines as economic indicators. The loads were probably the BEST indicator. Then came 9.11.
After that, the best that I found was restaurants and how much and where ppl are eating. when economy is dropping, so is amount of food. when ppl are getting lower paying jobs, then they tend towards fast food (though having kids seem to play in that as well).
These are forward indicators. I used to ask all of the restaurants that I ate at, how business was doing compared to last year. Some managers were ansty about answering that, until I explained the indicator. Then I got told.

What I find interesting is anybody saying numbers are aggressive. We have been pushing multiple EVs since 2010. Add in the fact that GM started in 1986 working on this. In fact, EVs go all the way back to 1800s. Battery storage, combined with a developed charging network, is what makes this possible. Elon now adding ccs to Tesla stations will give Europe the same coverage that Tesla gave America.

But think about this. Where EV development 4-5 years ago? End of 2013,2014?
280 superchargers in the entire world at end of 2014. How many now in mid Dec, 2018? 1404+. How many will there be in another 4 years? I’m guessing 5000+.
Battery prices in another 5 years? What was it in 2013? More than double today’s.

This is why in 4-5 years (2022/3), my numbers will not only not be aggressive, but I was purposely being conservative.

Which manufacturers are going to be making those 40 million EV’s a year in 3 years time?

Tesla will have around 1 Million by that time, VW are talking about having a similar number again. Where are the other 38 Million vehicles coming from?

Even with a collapse in car sales numbers, the likes we haven’t seen before, there would still need to be another 10-15 million new EV’s being built. So far, there is no indication from any manufacturer that this sort of number is remotely achievable.

?????
where do you get 40 million EVs from?
Right now, America has 17 million cars/trucks. I have said numerous times that trucks should be excluded from these numbers. As such, it is something like 12-4 million sales. I believe that US car/SUV sales in 3-4 years time will be around 6-7 million. Of that, more than 1/2 of it will be EVs. And tesla will be over 1M, just in America.

“U.S. Plug-In Electric Car Market Shows Signs Of S-Curve Takeoff”

https://d2t6ms4cjod3h9.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/111-78.png

Well, we can clearly see that the blue bars are getting taller. So yes, things are progressing in the right direction. But I wouldn’t yet want to call it a “sign of S-curve take-off”. For that to happen, the blue bars must keep getting taller in the next few years.

In which year will we see that the monthly Plug-In sales of the month January in the US will be more than 100,000?

Will that happen in 2025?

2021

More than 100,000 Plug-In sales in the US in January 2021?

Wow

And how many will there be in January 2019?

My money is on the first 100,000+ Plug in US sales in a single month is December of 2020. If the Kona arrived in larger numbers/sooner and GM wanted to sell the Bolt in large numbers by making it look sharper and charge faster, it could have been December of 2019.

I believe that I am being conservative. I suspect (hope?) that you will win.
BUT, I wish that we were NOT doing plug-in, but real EVs. The idea of equating a parallel hybrid with EV is just plain wrong.

@ Ziv

The highest monthly Plug-In sales numbers in the US in a year have always been achieved in the month of December.

Therefore, December 2020 is much more likely to be the first month in which the monthly Plug-In sales number in the US will reach that 100,000 milestone.

Perhaps I should not have limited my initial question to the month of January.

Jan, 2019? I am guessing around 30-35K. I think that it will drop for a bit.
However, by end of 2019, the feds will either re-do the tax break to time based, OR will drop it.,

@ Windbourne

January 2019 will be more than 20,000 and less than 30,000.

Other than the Model-3 sales increase and Jaguar I-Pace, we are not going to see any increase in US plugin sales.
All those Hyundai entrants are compliance cars.
But in China, we will see a big increase in plugin sales.

$35000 Model 3 will be available in 3 years.
A 3 yr old $46000 Model 3 will be selling for $35000.

Yes, and these used vehicles with have more options and more range.

Translation: They will be the better buy.
Tesla may not need to sell a base $35,000 if they start a lease program.

So many comments and yet, so few real thoughts in them. Some of you really play with numbers, but you simply pull them out of the air. HERE: https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/?page=us_energy_home If you read the first couple of paragraphs, you will see that electricity is 38% of our energy, with 29% being transportation. Of that transportation, nearly all is road based. rail, air, and water occupy a small amount. In fact, I would guess that these chew up a bit more energy than what the EV had at this time. So, such, it is probably fair to say that switching road transportation to electric would add 29% to the 38, or we would have 67% of our energy from electricity. That is a NEAR doubling of electricity. Can our grid handle it? According to multiple studies, the grid (save in the North west) will handle it fine if max 25% of the transportation charges in the daytime. The problem becomes the utilities. The studies showed that if less than 15% is charged, we will not need to change any power plants. Problem is, that we had more nuke plants AND base-load. Now, if we charge in the daytime, we will likely need… Read more »