Tesla Q1 Production Soars To New High Of 34,494 – 9,766 Model 3

Blue Tesla Model 3

APR 3 2018 BY ERIC LOVEDAY 124

Tesla Model 3 production hit 9,766 units in the first quarter of 2018.

Tesla just reported Q1 2018 production figures. The automaker states:

“Q1 production totaled 34,494 vehicles, a 40% increase from Q4 and by far the most productive quarter in Tesla history. 24,728 were Model S and Model X, and 9,766 were Model 3. The Model 3 output increased exponentially, representing a fourfold increase over last quarter.”

Related – Tesla Posts Q4 Earnings, Record Revenue On Record Deliveries

Lumping together Model S and Model X means we’re left without a break down this time.

Production Pump – Tesla Sends Memo To Workers – Get Model 3 Production To 300 Per Day

The majority of Tesla’s release rightfully focuses on the Model 3 though. According to Tesla:

The Model 3 output increased exponentially, representing a fourfold increase over last quarter. This is the fastest growth of any automotive company in the modern era. If this rate of growth continues, it will exceed even that of Ford and the Model T.

We were able to double the weekly Model 3 production rate during the quarter by rapidly addressing production and supply chain bottlenecks, including several short factory shutdowns to upgrade equipment.

In the past seven days, Tesla produced 2,020 Model 3 vehicles. In the next seven days, we expect to produce 2,000 Model S and X vehicles and 2,000 Model 3 vehicles. It is a testament to the ability of the Tesla production team that Model 3 volume now exceeds Model S and Model X combined. What took our team five years for S/X, took only nine months for Model 3.

Tesla adds that it expects Model 3 production to hit 5,000 units per week “in about three months,” so maybe July then.

RELATED – MONTHLY PLUG-IN SALES SCORECARD

The automaker has once again stated that:

“Tesla does not require an equity or debt raise this year, apart from standard credit lines.”

Lastly, Tesla adds a few specific Model 3 notes, including a mention of reservations:

The quality of Model 3 coming out of production is at the highest level we have seen across all our products. This is reflected in the overwhelming delight experienced by our customers with their Model 3’s. Our initial customer satisfaction score for Model 3 quality is above 93%, which is the highest score in Tesla’s history.

Net Model 3 reservations remained stable through Q1. The reasons for order cancellation are almost entirely due to delays in production in general and delays in availability of certain planned options, particularly dual motor AWD and the smaller battery pack.

Tesla press release below:

Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

PALO ALTO, Calif., April 03, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Q1 production totaled 34,494 vehicles, a 40% increase from Q4 and by far the most productive quarter in Tesla history. 24,728 were Model S and Model X, and 9,766 were Model 3. The Model 3 output increased exponentially, representing a fourfold increase over last quarter. This is the fastest growth of any automotive company in the modern era. If this rate of growth continues, it will exceed even that of Ford and the Model T.

We were able to double the weekly Model 3 production rate during the quarter by rapidly addressing production and supply chain bottlenecks, including several short factory shutdowns to upgrade equipment.

In the past seven days, Tesla produced 2,020 Model 3 vehicles. In the next seven days, we expect to produce 2,000 Model S and X vehicles and 2,000 Model 3 vehicles. It is a testament to the ability of the Tesla production team that Model 3 volume now exceeds Model S and Model X combined. What took our team five years for S/X, took only nine months for Model 3.

Given the progress made thus far and upcoming actions for further capacity improvement, we expect that the Model 3 production rate will climb rapidly through Q2. Tesla continues to target a production rate of approximately 5,000 units per week in about three months, laying the groundwork for Q3 to have the long-sought ideal combination of high volume, good gross margin and strong positive operating cash flow. As a result, Tesla does not require an equity or debt raise this year, apart from standard credit lines.

Q1 deliveries totaled 29,980 vehicles, of which 11,730 were Model S, 10,070 were Model X, and 8,180 were Model 3. Net orders for Model S and X were at an all-time Q1 record, and demand remains very strong. Model S and X customer vehicles in transit were high. 4,060 Model S and X vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of Q1, which was 68% higher than at the end of Q4 2017. An additional 2,040 Model 3 vehicles were also in transit to customers. These vehicles will be delivered in early Q2 2018, which keeps us on track for our full-year 2018 Model S and X delivery guidance.

Finally, we would like to share two additional points about Model 3:

The quality of Model 3 coming out of production is at the highest level we have seen across all our products. This is reflected in the overwhelming delight experienced by our customers with their Model 3’s. Our initial customer satisfaction score for Model 3 quality is above 93%, which is the highest score in Tesla’s history.
Net Model 3 reservations remained stable through Q1. The reasons for order cancellation are almost entirely due to delays in production in general and delays in availability of certain planned options, particularly dual motor AWD and the smaller battery pack. As described above, owner happiness with the product is extremely high.
We would like to thank our customers, suppliers and investors for their continued patience and belief in Tesla.

Our delivery count should be viewed as slightly conservative, as we only count a car as delivered if it is transferred to the customer and all paperwork is correct. Final numbers could vary by up to 0.5%. Tesla vehicle deliveries represent only one measure of the company’s financial performance and should not be relied on as an indicator of quarterly financial results, which depend on a variety of factors, including the cost of sales, foreign exchange movements and mix of directly leased vehicles.

33 photos
2. Tesla Model 3
Range: 310 miles; 136/123 mpg-e. Still maintaining a long waiting list as production ramps up slowly, the new compact Tesla Model 3 sedan is a smaller and cheaper, but no less stylish, alternative, to the fledgling automaker’s popular Model S. This estimate is for a Model 3 with the “optional” (at $9,000) long-range battery, which is as of this writing still the only configuration available. The standard battery, which is expected to become available later in 2018, is estimated to run for 220 miles on a charge. Tesla Model 3 charge port (U.S.) Tesla Model 3 front seats Tesla Model 3 at Atascadero, CA Supercharging station (via Mark F!) Tesla Model 3 at Atascadero, CA Supercharging station (via Mark F!) Tesla Model 3 Tesla Model 3 Tesla Model 3 The Tesla Model 3 is not hiding anymore! Tesla Model 3 (Image Credit: Tom Moloughney/InsideEVs) Tesla Model 3 Inside the Tesla Model 3 Tesla Model 3 rear seats Tesla Model 3 Road Trip arrives in Tallahassee Tesla Model 3 charges in Tallahassee, trunk open.

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124 Comments on "Tesla Q1 Production Soars To New High Of 34,494 – 9,766 Model 3"

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scottf200
Guest
scottf200

Re: “What took our team five years for S/X, took only nine months for Model 3.”
I wonder how the Model Y (smaller SUV/CUV) will turn out.

Tesla Investors
Guest

ROTFLOL! What was Tesla’s employee count 5 years ago?
Didn’t Tesla just move its MOdel S&X workes to the Molde 3 lines to help out reach the 2k a week burst rate?
ROTFLOL. Elon will compare anything to boost the SP! But I’m liking it.

Robert Weekley
Guest

Hopefully, as you roll on the floor you don’t get splinters! 😀😳😛

floydboy
Guest
floydboy

ROTFLOL! I guess he’s rolling on the lemons, trying to make lemonade!

ziv
Guest
ziv

3820 3’s delivered? Nice. I was going to be happy if they got anything over 3000.
The S and X figures look really high, are they worldwide delivery figures?
This isn’t the easiest release to figure out.

Benz
Guest
Benz

Yes, worldwide

James
Guest
James

Yes, and 21,800 vs 25,000 in Q1 2017 is reeaally high

ziv
Guest
ziv

IEVs has Tesla’s total US deliveries in Q1 of 2017 at 10,400. Did Tesla really make 14,600 ex-US deliveries in Q1 2017?

James
Guest
James
Ziv
Guest
Ziv

Interesting, thanks for the link! But total deliveries for Q1 2018 was 29,980, not 21,800. The 3 isn’t a zero sum factor.
I understand your point that S and X deliveries are down, but given that there is only once assembly line, there is no way that ramping up 3 production isn’t going to slow S and X production for a while. We will see going forward, both next quarter and the one following, if S and X numbers recover a bit.

Alex
Guest
Alex

Deliveries of Model S/X are short by some 3300 compared to Q1 17. If you assume an average price of them compared to a M3 of factor two, 8000 M3 means that overall revenues from automotive sales are basically flat. Probably costs are not flat…

Pushmi-Pullyu
Guest
Pushmi-Pullyu

Ziv said:

“…given that there is only once assembly line, there is no way that ramping up 3 production isn’t going to slow S and X production for a while”

Only one assembly line? Not for years now. There may be places where the two lines join into one, where it makes sense to do that, but certainly much or most of the production is split between two lines.

From Sep 2014: “Tesla’s 2nd Production Line Capable Of Pumping Out 3,000 Tesla Per Week”

https://insideevs.com/teslas-2nd-production-line-capable-pumping-3000-tesla-per-week/

ziv
Guest
ziv

Interesting. I didn’t know there was more than one line. Makes sense though.

Nix
Guest
Nix

The big problem was that they had to take assembly line workers off the S/X line, and put them on the Model 3 line.

scottf200
Guest
scottf200

Using InsideEVs Jan/Feb TM3 numbers I get:
5406 (Mar) = 9766 (Q1) – 1875 (Jan) – 2485 (Feb)

Then again 9766 were probably worldwide.

fasterthanonecanimagine
Guest
fasterthanonecanimagine

9766 = production# not delivery#
Model 3: worldwide = USA

scottf200
Guest
scottf200

Re: Q1 deliveries totaled 29,980 vehicles, of which 11,730 were Model S, 10,070 were Model X, and 8,180 were Model 3 — via http://ir.tesla.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=1062670

** revised with delivery numbers **
Using InsideEVs Jan/Feb TM3 numbers I get:
3820 (Mar) = 8180 (Q1) – 1875 (Jan) – 2485 (Feb)

Steven Loveday
Admin

Yes, this is correct. Sorting Model S and X numbers is a whole other story!

Benz
Guest
Benz

Tesla Model 3 US deliveries in Q1 2018 are more than 8,000.

Tesla Model 3 US deliveries in Q2 2018 will be more than 24,000.

rad
Guest
rad

Guessing at 7000, 8000, 9000 for April, May and June would be 24,000. That would top any other model for the entire year of 2017 in just one quarter. Not bad for a startup.

Counter-Strike Cat
Guest
Counter-Strike Cat

10 years “startup”

Get Real
Guest
Get Real

And Counter Strike Cat is 10 years a TROLL!

Robert Weekley
Guest

Startups are defined in part, as smallee than competition, and also as growing rapidly! Not just as only opened the doors yesterday!

wavelet
Guest
wavelet

What (-:
No it wouldn’t. The Leaf sold 46K worldwide in 2017, a lot more than 24K. Not to mention the top 5 selling EVs in China sold >25K each in 2017.
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/01/29/2017-china-electric-car-sales-blow-world-water-baic-ec-series-superstar/

Tesla’s plan of record was 500K units this year (CY2018), globally, total for all models.
It doesn’t look like they’ll reach 100K of S/X sales (they also failed their goal last year), and it’s looking very borderline whether they’ll do 150K Model 3’s this year (to so so they need >4K average every week starting last week, and they’re only at 2K/wk).
I think 200K units in 2018 is a realistic goal, with 250K a stretch goal… I wish them luck — they’re gonna need it. They’re no also on record saying they’ll need still more loans (“credit line” is a fancy name for a loan), so debt will continue to mount.

Tom
Guest
Tom

Good news for model 3. Still slower than Nissan Leaf in March though

Vexar
Guest
Vexar

Nissan has been making the Leaf for a while, though. Yes, it is a new model version, but it isn’t like they made a completely different car last time, the styling was updated. You can’t say that about the Model S/ X to the Model III; they aren’t as compatible a build process as old Leaf versus new Leaf.

It is also worth pointing out that Tesla is building the Model III differently. I hope for a refresh on both of the older models this year, perhaps to take advantage of what they have learned in how to build the Model III.

Is anyone wondering whether InsideEVs will score the Tesla Semi builds? I mean, we’re not seeing even quarterly figures on the BYD, ProTerra, or NewFlyer buses.

Robert Weekley
Guest

InsideEVs seems focused on cars only! Maybe another player in EV News will track buses and trucks!

Pushmi-Pullyu
Guest
Pushmi-Pullyu

My guess is that IEVs will make an exception and track Tesla Semi Truck production simply because there’s so much interest in that.

Contrariwise, I don’t see a lot of comments about the Nissan e-NV200 commercial delivery van!

Tech01x
Guest
Tech01x

Leaf is basically the same car with a facelift built on the same production lines. The Model 3 is a new production line with new production techniques to Tesla. So the bring up is different. But just like the Bolt, there was a time in 2017 that the Bolt had higher volumes and then the Model 3 surpassed it. In Q2, the Model 3 will surpass the Leaf.

Besides, why would anyone take a chance on the high cell degradation and poor DCFC of a 2018 Leaf? Wait for the 2019’s with LG cells at least. The Bolt is a much better buy in 2018, especially if GM can sort out their pack problems and drive unit problems.

Tom
Guest
Tom

Just pointing out that the Tesla cultists 6 months ago were saying the Leaf would bomb and by this point Tesla would be making infinity model 3s per week. Worldwide in Feb Nissan delivered 6300 Leafs. Every indication is huge upswing in Europe in March add the extra 1000 increase in US and you are at 9000 in March. Every reason to believe Leaf will be at or above 10000 every month after that. And it still has a 50/50 shot at beating model 3 for full year 2018. Big numbers from 3 and leaf both this year

Brian
Guest
Brian

Nissan makes the Leaf on multiple continents and factories. Stay away from cults.

William
Guest
William

“Stay away from Cults”? Is that advise from a former Cult member, or from a Civil Servant first responder?
The St. Elon ordained, are just dying to know!

Pushmi-Pullyu
Guest
Pushmi-Pullyu

“Tom” revived his anti-Tesla FUD campaign:

“Just pointing out that the Tesla cultists 6 months ago were saying… by this point Tesla would be making infinity model 3s per week.”

Dude, exaggerating as wildly as that isn’t the way to convince people you’re right.

And late last week, just a few days ago, some Tesla Hater cultists were claiming Tesla’s stock price had collapsed and the company would soon be bankrupt. How did that work out, again? Hmmmm?
😆 😆 😆

Go Tesla!

Brian
Guest
Brian

I think you can lease a Leaf but not a M3. They’re a ton of Leaf2 driving around Atlanta this year but I wonder how many are purchased vs leased.

Ziv
Guest
Ziv

No wonder Musk was happy to make an April Fools joke about bankruptcy. These numbers aren’t perfect but they are really good. If he is finally right about production growth, the next quarter is going to be a ton of fun to watch.

tech_guy
Guest
tech_guy

So, after 9 months of sales, they still make fewer M3 than MS, for a car that should be sooo much easier to make?? You call that progress?

MS and MX sales are down YoY. Growth is dead. The rich guys who want one already have one.

M3 will never sell more than 100k per year.

Ziv
Guest
Ziv

“That word doesn’t mean what you think it means!”
“Progress” is indeed what is happening, and it is a good thing.
Tesla is building more 3’s every month and in so doing they may limit for a time the amount of S and X’s that can be built at Fremont. But they will progressively build more 3’s and eventually the S and X production will recover. This “progress” thing you speak of works in their favor, and in favor of people who want to see BEV’s succeed.
Or, they may have saturated the market for $70,000 to $110,000 electric cars and will only be able to sell 20,000 S and X’s per quarter worldwide, but I would bet a bit more than a beer that their quarterly sales for the S and X are more than 24k going forward.
But realistically, either result works for me, because the 3 is going to be their big seller.
And if the 3 only sells 100,000 worldwide a year in its first full calendar year that will still be a huge success. I suspect 2019 will see them selling much more than that, but stuff happens.

ROFLOL
Guest
ROFLOL

True, all the rich guys who wanted an S-Class or a 7-series already have one too, nobody is buying them anymore. Oh wait….ROFLOL

David Beall
Guest

Why embarass you self in perpuity. If you have stupid thoughts, best to stay silent. But I guess that would explain why you will never be the boss

Viktor
Guest
Viktor

Lets read what Tesla have write and not only look at numbers for the hole quarter.

“Net orders for Model S and X were at an all-time Q1 record, and demand remains very strong.”

“In the past seven days, Tesla produced 2,020 Model 3 vehicles. In the next seven days, we expect to produce 2,000 Model S and X vehicles and 2,000 Model 3 vehicles. It is a testament to the ability of the Tesla production team that Model 3 volume now exceeds Model S and Model X combined. What took our team five years for S/X, took only nine months for Model 3.”

So in nine month they passed Model S and X combine with Model 3 and they had the best first quarter ever then you look at Model S and X orders.

Nix
Guest
Nix

They took workers off the S and moved them to building 3’s

S and X wait now 6 months

Robert Weekley
Guest

And waiting for the S & X, if that helps them ramp up the Model 3, But they are Still producing the S/X at 2,000 per week, or a 2nd year at ~100,000+, is a bad thing, HOW?

Especially, if such delays help them be in a better production and delivery position, and cross the US Sales number of 200,000 on July 1st, instead of June 21st! That would be the best way to finish the year for them, at a high volume of Model S & Model X, AND Model 3 Production, Sales, and Deliveries!

Robert Weekley
Guest

“M3 will never sell more than 100k per year.” Yup! Sure! People are going to wait 3-4 years to complete their Orders for their long awaited Model 3’s! Yup! Sure!

If your memory was informed better, you would remember folks like you sayin ‘Tesla will never sell more than those 12,000 Model S Reservations!’, & also ‘Tesla will Never sell more than those 20,000 Model X Reservations!’.

So, just remember this, when the First Model S was revealed, there was No Supercharger Network of some about 10,000 locations worldwide! There were also still, in 2012, when they delivered their first Model S, not more than an initial 8 Supercharger Locations when they were started! Plus, there was no Tesla Destination Charging Network, and A LOT LESS J1772 L2 or similar charging points available! Also, Tesla did not have the CHAdeMO adapter available!

All these items are a highly relevant factor in the purchase decision making process!

Jeff Songster
Guest
Jeff Songster

++1
Superchargers are a massive asset… ( after 4 years of living with Nissan LEAF or second best at having a charger net…) I got a Model X… and the prices of the Model X and S could both get lower as time goes on and battery and assembly costs get further optimized. Love the updating, evolving auto and the SC Network. AutoPilot is awesome, even in Beta… better than Caddy’s soon to be unsupported toy. (how many do they have to sell to keep updating the road info via their co. versus an adaptive, smart system) Just accumulated more shares… ready for the long haul to success.

Get Real
Guest
Get Real

Notice how tech-guy troll and other trolls continously try and spin their way out of the reality that Tesla is quickly building a monster brand that will dominate the upscale EV market that is sure to grow much faster then the LICE business which will instead contract.

Pushmi-Pullyu
Guest
Pushmi-Pullyu

“If your memory was informed better, you would remember folks like you sayin ‘Tesla will never sell more than those 12,000 Model S Reservations!’, & also ‘Tesla will Never sell more than those 20,000 Model X Reservations!’.”

Yes indeed, and thanks for reminding us!

We really ought to put together a “Top 10” list of the most stupid predictions from Tesla bashers.

That one, “Tesla will never sell more than 100,000 Model 3’s per year”, certainly deserves a place on that list!

Pushmi-Pullyu
Guest
Pushmi-Pullyu

tech_guy said:

“M3 will never sell more than 100k per year.”

Well, you’ve got maybe 8 or 9 months to work on recipes of the crow you’re gonna have to eat. 🙂

Go Tesla!

CDAVIS
Guest
CDAVIS

From article: “Tesla Q1 Production Soars To New High ”
——————-

I’m not surprised by this and expect this Tesla Model 3 upward sales trend to continue based on my recent Tesla Model 3 experience:

I’m an existing Model S owner that last Saturday took delivery of a silver Model 3 as a 2nd family car. At delivery we closely inspect our new Model 3 and tried hard to find something to nit-pick at but the car was flawless in every way. Great delivery experience!

Th Sevice Center guy that did our took delivery told us our car was the 7th Model 3 delivered just that day and that they had delivered over 40 last two weeks… and just received another 20 that day into inventory for delivery. So for sure Model 3 deliveries are cranking up big time on the USA East Coast!

Vexar
Guest
Vexar

Congratulations on your Model III, that’s excellent news! Hope to see you at the Superchargers some day.

pjwood1
Guest
pjwood1

Love silver. I’d say my #1 choice in pics, and that was reaffirmed in flesh, in Cambridge, last Sunday. Would you have been on this part of the “East coast”?

CDAVIS
Guest
CDAVIS

@pjwood1, Further down the East Coast… Florida.

Nix
Guest
Nix

Congrats!

Nelson
Guest
Nelson

Get ready to hear vague EV unveiling news from the incumbents.

NPNS! SBF!
Volt#671 + BoltEV + Model 3 (soon)

Ziv
Guest
Ziv

Yep, these numbers are going to motivate GM to finally deliver a slightly roomier EREV off the Volt platform and a much more attractive CUV off the Bolt platform. And then add ACC and faster charging as an option for both of them.

WadeTyhon
Guest
WadeTyhon

Probably this month! 😉 New Velite model will be shown. Likely a wagon or hatchback.

It will be the first new GM PHEV and EV announcement will be shown for China. Hopefully a new US announcement soon as well.

Ziv
Guest
Ziv

Nice looking car, but the back seat looked super cramped height-wise in the early photos of the prototype. Have they gotten a more realistic roof line yet?

Ziv
Guest
Ziv

This is the most recent one I can find, it is better than the early prototype but still pretty tight for the back seat. Cool looking car, though.
http://gmauthority.com/blog/2018/04/buick-teases-velite-6-plug-in-hybrid-ev-for-china/

WadeTyhon
Guest
WadeTyhon

Yep! I think this is going to be a China-only vehicle. GM cannot sell the Bolt in China profitably because of the country’s protectionist policies. That’s where this vehicle comes in. It is supposed to launch by the end of the year.

Here in the US, the first Buick EV will likely be more crossover-like and should be announced this year as well.

ziv
Guest
ziv

Too bad. A more attractive option to the Bolt and Volt would be welcome in the states. A lot of drivers like their cars to look good, not just work good. My Volt is a solid performer, but she will never win the Miss Virginia tiara.
😉

Get Real
Guest
Get Real

Ziv really gets it,

The best thing about Tesla’s success is that is disrupting the laggards and forcing them to start building real EV programs that produce compelling EVs or face losing out on the future.

bro1999
Guest

“The Model 3 output increased exponentially, representing a fourfold increase over last quarter. This is the fastest growth of any automotive company in the modern era. If this rate of growth continues, it will exceed even that of Ford and the Model T.”

Is anyone else chuckling at the flowery wording of that statement? It reads just like something the Trump administration would put out about something being the best ever, never seen before in history. Lol

And of course the Q1 production (despite numerous flawed units still being delivered; see Car & Driver’s Model 3 review) is quite impressive compared to other EV offerings. Though their ~10k 3’s produced Q1 is a far, far cry from the 200k goal Elon initially gave for 2017.

ROFLOL
Guest
ROFLOL

What do you know, Troll1999 showed up to rain as much on Tesla’s parade as possible. These Tesla hate cultists are nothing if not predictable!

ROFLOL!

JP
Guest
JP

Surprise, GM fanboy bro1999 freaking out that the Model 3 is crushing the Bolt, just as everyone knew would happen.

Nix
Guest
Nix

Lol!!!! Sorry you can’t deal with yet another Tesla record US sales victory

Get Real
Guest
Get Real

You have to admit, Mental MadBro is consistent…AT BEING WRONG!

Pushmi-Pullyu
Guest
Pushmi-Pullyu

bro1999 continued his mad Tesla bashing campaign:

“Is anyone else chuckling at the flowery wording of that statement?”

No, but right now I’m certainly chucking at your increasingly obvious and sweaty desperation in trying to deny that Tesla is growing strong!
😀 😀 😀

Go Tesla!

Nate
Guest
Nate

Question for those tracking the tax credit. What is your prediction for when Tesla hits 200000 U.S deliveries? Thx.

Benz
Guest
Benz

Most certainly before July 2018.

Dan
Guest
Dan

Doubtless they will manage this (remember, it’s deliveries, not production) so that #200,000 does NOT come before July 1. Then they will have two full quarters to go as fast as they can with the full tax credit.

Then they might start selling base model cars.

Ziv
Guest
Ziv

Mine was July 2nd. Now I think they would have to send a ton of cars overseas in the next 3 months to keep 200k deliveries in July. It all comes down to next months US deliveries number.
If they do push sales overseas and start sending 3’s to Canada, I will still bet July 2nd we will see deliveries for Q2 falling just short of pushing Tesla over 200k deliveries for the US.

Alex MacKinnon
Guest
Alex MacKinnon

I can confirm, people in Canada are now getting deliveries quite quickly. I’d imagine the take on all wheel drive is higher here than in the US though.

ffbj
Guest
ffbj

It is, but they are not getting those delivered yet, as they are not in production. They will deliver RWD to Canada to put off the 200k delivered in the U.S. until the 2nd quarter ends, though most Canadian orders are for AWD naturally.

ziv
Guest
ziv

ffbj, that method of delaying has been what I thought Tesla was going to us to keep the #200k from selling in June. But it is going to take pushing a lot of Teslas overseas/to Canada to keep 200k from happening in June. I hope they are able to do so without taking a hit on their profitability.

WadeTyhon
Guest
WadeTyhon

Yes, unless Tesla announces that European deliveries will begin by the end of the quarter, there is no way 200k will be hit in Q3.

And I don’t see how they could possibly ramp up European deliveries that quickly considering Canadian delivery estimates have all been 4-8 weeks.

Robert Weekley
Guest

Mexico, is Also another Option for easily pushing some nearby sales off the Inventory pile! Probably could take a few Weeks woth of current format Model 3 Production their, too!

Pushmi-Pullyu
Guest
Pushmi-Pullyu

I seriously doubt that there are enough sales of Tesla cars in Mexico to have a significant impact. There’s only one Tesla store in the entire country.

https://electrek.co/2016/07/10/tesla-open-first-store-mexico-palacio-hierro/

Texas Leaf
Guest
Texas Leaf

Tesla was at 169,451 at the beginning of March and were only average about 4,000 sales per month for 2018. Tesla might hit the 200,000 mark in three months.

Ziv
Guest
Ziv

I thought they were at approximately 165,000 after the March numbers were added in. But I wouldn’t bet much more than a beer on that. I still haven’t seen a break down on how many of the 11,730 S deliveries or the 10,070 X deliveries were made in the US and how many were abroad.

Ziv
Guest
Ziv

Arghh… That should have read “after the February numbers were added in”.
Sorry.

Rich
Guest
Rich

End of Mar. 2018, I have Tesla sitting at 178,761
USA sales (using IEVs data). With average Q2 sales for Model S & X and flat production on the Model 3, I’ve got them putting ~22K out the door. I don’t believe Model 3 production will stay flat in Q2. If they’re going to avoid hitting 200K in Q2, they’ll have to redirect a larger number of vehicles overseas. Hopefully, they’ll take this course of action and have 2 full quarters remaining for the full tax credit. *fingers crossed*

Pushmi-Pullyu
Guest
Pushmi-Pullyu

“Question for those tracking the tax credit. What is your prediction for when Tesla hits 200000 U.S deliveries? Thx.”

Almost certainly sometime in the 2nd quarter this year. The exact date doesn’t matter, only the quarter during which that milestone is crossed. So all of Tesla’s cars should be available for the full tax refund through the end of this year, and the refund will almost certainly drop to half starting Jan 1 next year (2019).

Someone out there
Guest
Someone out there

Still nowhere near enough. Moody’s latest rating was based on the premise of Tesla sustainably making at least 2500 model 3’s per week at the end of Q1 at a 25% margin, as promised by Elon.
Expect another downgrade. The bond market is definitely off the table, the rating is in loan shark territory already and it’s getting worse.

The “we don’t need to raise any more money” song and dance we’ve heard before. Elon said that already in 2012 and he restated it just before the model 3 and then proceeded to raise money 3 times for the model 3 ramp. I don’t believe a word of it.

Ziv
Guest
Ziv

And yet Tesla is back off its floor of 244 and trading at 261 now. Tesla is making mistakes, but they build great cars in an ever growing amount.
Musk talks too much but his company does deliver, albeit generally months late. Customer satisfaction on the 3 at delivery is higher than it is on the S or the X. So they aren’t cutting corners to build production.
They probably will need to another round of bond sales, but though they may need to pay a higher yield, they won’t have trouble finding buyers.

ziv
Guest
ziv

And trading at 271 at 2pm. It would seem that the shorters failed and that Tesla is going to recover most of its lost value.

Nix
Guest
Nix

Sounds like shorter exiting fast

EVShopper
Guest
EVShopper

Tesla’s 2017 Q4 guidance was 25% margin at 5,000/wk by end of Q2 2018 (not 2,500/wk). They fell a little short of the 2.500/wk by end of Q1, but still showing good progress.

CDAVIS
Guest
CDAVIS

@Someone-out-here said: “Still nowhere near enough…”
————-

Lol…. perhaps not for you but certainly enough to have suddenly caused many TSLA shorts to seek nearest exit.

DJ
Guest
DJ

Why wouldn’t they? They’re probably living off champagne and caviar these days thanks to the boatload of $ they made over the past week.

I mean seriously, does anyone here not wish they started shorting TSLA a month ago?

CDAVIS
Guest
CDAVIS

Reality is most of the TSLA short positions that are now trade existing are mostly trade positions out-of-the-money… so no profits for them… they see a temporary window of *some* squeez relief and even they recognize the writing on the wall likely indicates a tighter squeeze ahead… so they have decided it’s better to leave the table today with two fingers missing than leave tomorrow with five missing.

CDAVIS
Guest
CDAVIS

typo: “trade existing ” should read “trade exiting”

Nix
Guest
Nix

Everybody who jumped on the TSLA shorter bandwagon back when TSLA was at $170/share are STILL heavily underwater, and the only champagne they are drinking is the stuff they made in their own bathtub.

Talking about winnings right now is like the guy who loses 100K playing poker, but brags about the $20K pot he won….

Pushmi-Pullyu
Guest
Pushmi-Pullyu

DJ continued his Tesla bashing:

“…does anyone here not wish they started shorting TSLA a month ago?”

Since Tesla’s stock is highly volatile, then of course anybody can, with benefit of hindsight, point to when they should have made a “short” investment. Duh.

But most Tesla shorters don’t seem to have done that well, have they? Nix said some weeks ago that Tesla shorters had already lost billions of dollars this year alone! Anyone who bought into a short investment just a bit over a year ago would still be underwater, not to mention almost certainly losing money on multiple short squeezes in the meantime!

I know all that and I’m not even an investor. How about you, DJ? How much money have you lost shorting TSLA?

😆 😆 😆

Ah, schadenfreude…

ffbj
Guest
ffbj

They just got an upgrade from Jefferies. Constant harping about them going bankrupt is tedious and also wrong, but don’t let that stop you. It hasn’t so far.

pjwood1
Guest
pjwood1

I just read what Someone out there said, and bought more.

Robert Weekley
Guest

Per “at the end of Q1 at a 25% margin, as promised by Elon.”, Elon promised the Model 3 to be going Profitable after they reach 5,000 per week, which means, it will become Profitable in Q3, as ‘Promised’, and the 2,500 per week was not a promise, for March 31st, but an Outline of Expectations, same as June 30th, at 5,000 Model 3’s Produced by end of Q2.

My Company President Cannot Promise what I will Complete on one shift, from day to day, let alone over a 3-6 month time frame! How do you expect Elon to ‘Promise’ at Tesla? All he can do is set goals, guidance, targets, and provide the needed support, within his means, to help the workers get it done! Not Everything is going to be within his personal control!

Nix
Guest
Nix

Keep your money in a nice safe children’s savings account if you don’t know the difference between “promise” and “guidance” (best estimate based upon knowledge at the time, tempered by a long list of potential risks that are known and listed right in their SEC reports).

Get Real
Guest
Get Real

LMFAO, The real “song and dance” that we have heard repeatedly is your loser predictions that Tesla is going bankwupt which was just throughly disproved in a Big Way.

Pushmi-Pullyu
Guest
Pushmi-Pullyu

“Expect another downgrade. The bond market is definitely off the table, the rating is in loan shark territory already and it’s getting worse.”

Hmm, what we can expect is more irrelevant FUD from Tesla Hater cultists like you.

The last bond issuance by Tesla was oversubscribed by — what was it that Nix reported? 10 to 1? Gosh, how terrible it would be if that were to drop to only 5 to 1 or *GASP* only 3 to 1!
/snark

There’s no reason for EV fans to care what happens to the rating of Tesla’s “junk bonds”. We care about the cars Tesla is making, how fast the company is growing, and how that is affecting the market for EVs. Not the market for so-called junk bonds!

Here are the important numbers:

Tesla’s global automobile sales totals:
2012: 2650
2013: 22,300
2014: 31,655 (+41.95%)
2015: 50,580 (+59.8%)
2016: 76,230 (+50.7%)
2017: 101,312 (+32.9%)

But for anyone who actually cares about demand for Tesla’s bonds, here’s a Jan 2018 Bloomberg article:

“Tesla Sells $546 Million of Bonds as Buyers Can’t Get Enough”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-31/when-it-comes-to-tesla-car-bonds-buyers-simply-can-t-get-enough

Go Tesla!

Adam
Guest
Adam

Well, Model 3 news appears to be a BFD.

3,820/month has only been beaten a handful of times and by no one not named Tesla, according to InsideEVs guesstimates (Model X in Dec-16, Model S in Mar-16, Dec-16, and Dec-17).

DJ
Guest
DJ

Maybe you’ve heard of the Leaf? It’s the best selling EV in the world and the Renault-Nissan-(and now Mitsu) alliance has more EVs on the road than anyone else (although I suspect some China manufacturers are catching up rapidly!)

https://insideevs.com/nissan-leaf-sales-heads-10000-a-month-over-100000-a-year/

Sure it’s battery sucks in any climate that gets over 90 degrees but it’s priced right!

William
Guest
William

That 90 degree climate threshold ( for daytime average temperatures ), is probably the most accurate description and consideration, for any year non-active TMS Nissan Leaf.

wavelet
Guest
wavelet

Another cult member that thinks Tesla is the world’s only EV maker?
5 EV models sold >3818 units this past December in China. None of their manufacturers was called “Tesla”.
The top seller sold 3x that 3818 number.

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/01/29/2017-china-electric-car-sales-blow-world-water-baic-ec-series-superstar/

Oh, and just in case anyone thinks it was a one-month fluke, nope: 4 models sold >3818 in November, the leading one 4x that number.
https://cleantechnica.com/2017/12/24/baic-blowout-november-16000-sales-china-electric-car-sales-report/
…And October also had several models >4K
https://cleantechnica.com/2017/11/21/baic-ec-series-scores-11000-sales-october-china-electric-car-sales-report/

Rich
Guest
Rich

I’ve been out of it for a while. Jumping back in to see where Tesla’s quarterly sales are at. Looks like Tesla will cross the 200K USA sales in Q2 2018 resulting in the full tax credit phasing out at the end of Q3 2018. The 50% tax credit will run through Q4 2018, phasing out at the end of Q1 2019.

ziv
Guest
ziv

This will give the Bolt and the Volt a temporary tail wind, but it is too bad that GM doesn’t have more attractive alternatives to the M3.

Rich
Guest
Rich

+1 It’s a shame GM isn’t positioned better, but not surprising.
At this point, I’d be happy with a 240 mile range Kia Niro EV.

Jeff Songster
Guest
Jeff Songster

Hard to say if they ship most of the Model S and X cars to Europe, Canada or China they can forstall it somewhat while ticking off some US consumers… They have admitted that they are managing the number to get maximum remaining use of the credits.

Pushmi-Pullyu
Guest
Pushmi-Pullyu

I think you got that info from a very bad source. There is pretty much nothing Tesla can do to change the fact that it’s going to cross the 200,000 milestone in the 2nd quarter this year, unless it starts shipping a lopsided majority of its cars overseas. Obviously that’s not going to happen.

The reason Tesla is now selling some cars in Canada is to extend the demand for the current rather limited number of option choices for the TM3, not because it’s trying to delay crossing the 200,000 milestone for U.S. sales.

See InsideEVs Forum discussion here:

https://insideevsforum.com/community/index.php?threads/model-3-production-ramping-up.404/page-7#post-8751

DJ
Guest
DJ

Not gonna lie, I thought it was going to be higher than that with all the puff pieces about increased VINs and everything.

Here’s to hoping they can even keep building 2k a week.

Rich
Guest
Rich

I’m a pre-reveal reservation holder. I just now received my email offering the opportunity to order a 1st prod run $49K RWD Tesla. Hahaha. I was excited for a min. as I’ve indicated AWD for my Model 3 … but nope, total let down.

Mister G
Guest
Mister G

ATTENTION MODEL 3 RESERVATION HOLDERS
If you reserved before 4/3/16 and are non-tesla owners PLEASE CANCEL TODAY I’M TIRED OF WAITING LOL

Robert Weekley
Guest

NOT Cancelled! NOT Cancelling! Just awaiting info on Dual Motor, in Canada, & Hoping for Towing Specs of 2,000 Lbs or 2,500 Lbs!

wavelet
Guest
wavelet

The current Model 3 can’t officially tow a trailer or accommodate a hitch, per the PDF user manual.
There were rumors the later AWD and/or air suspension model might do so, but it’s anybody’s guess if or when.
(This isn’t a Tesla-only issue — no EV is officially capable of towing a trailer, except the Model X and Outlander. The Ioniq has a bicycle-only official solution in Germany.)

I expect if all you want is a tow bar for bicycles, that will be doable — there’s 3d-party solutions for other vehicles that officially don’t tow, like the Bolt.

James
Guest
James

Seeing a lot more 3’s around Santa Cruz now. Gone to charge my car on a public charger twice in two days and there was a different 3 at the same charger on both occasions. I’m also really impressed by the dedication of the Tesla employees to get it done. The guy who sold us our car two weeks ago in San Jose was helping out at the delivery center in Fremont, and even though it was a pretty high-stress environment at the end of a Saturday before Easter, every employee was awesome. Buying the car, start to finish, was WAY less stressful than buying from a normal car dealer. In fact, it was pretty fun.

Terminaltrip421
Guest
Terminaltrip421

I’m not saying they can’t or won’t increase production but save for the last 7 day push they’re averaging 2800 a month which would be 34000 for the year. If you think they’re going to more than triple that you have more faith than I understand

terminaltrip421
Guest
terminaltrip421

given the last seven day push of 2k means they were averaging only 644 a week prior. they managed to more than triple production for one week only. see you in three months perhaps for more forced transparency,

Nix
Guest
Nix

Your math error is in ASSuming that they had no down time for the line, when in fact they have been very open about the fact that they have stopped the line multiple times for downtime. Averaging in those downtimes ASSumes that they would need the same number of downtimes going forward, which is false. It is purely a ramp-up delay.

Elon explained that the ramp up would not be linear way nearly a full year ago, so it isn’t like this is some new concept.

Robert Weekley
Guest

Please keep up: Tesla has an already Tested Battery Module Assembly Line, coming in March 2018, that alone can produce 2,500 packs per week! As that will be setup in April, 2018, there will be som increase in April, and quite likely a big jump in May!

June may see anywhere from 4,000 to 5,000 per week production!

Gearhead
Guest
Gearhead

In the 60’s and 70’s the Detroit 3 cranked out big numbers of cars so poorly put together they almost produced themselves out of existence. Lesson learned; NEVER chase volume if it compromises quality. Car and Driver loved the 3 but knocked build quality and NVH. Not good in the long run.

Nix
Guest
Nix

Are you incapable of reading the part of the story where it talks about how they greatly improved quality? Which of course they announced that they were going to do a couple of months ago, when they announced they were slowing down their original ramp-up plan IN ORDER TO FOCUS ON QUALITY.

You clearly haven’t been paying attention if you think Tesla quality at all resembles old Big 3 junk. Do you think Detroit’s quality problems were just the petty minor panel gap and minor paint flaws? You obviously never owned a 1970’s Detroit junker that couldn’t make it to 80K miles without some sort of major component rebuild.

Pushmi-Pullyu
Guest
Pushmi-Pullyu

Thank you!

Trying to equate the sometimes yes, sometimes no, minor panel gap imperfections in Tesla’s cars with the systemic, deep problem with low quality in American cars of the 1970s, deliberate “planned obsolescence”…

WOW! Just wow. Even for those Tesla cars which have, perhaps, two or three millimeters of variance in one or more panel gaps (even worse is pretty common, as you can easily see during a stroll through any large parking lot), that isn’t going to cause the car to fall apart in just a few years!

Let’s be very clear: There is a very large difference between minor fit-and-finish issues, and basic build quality! Confusing the two isn’t at all helpful.

Another Euro point of view
Guest
Another Euro point of view
29’980 deliveries against 25’000 deliveries for Q1 2017, that is a 20% increase year on year. Not bad but still not justifying the stratospheric stock price. Now I am sure that many resources were allocated to M3 and that we will likely see a sharp improvement for Q3. Now I have a problem with those M3 production figures in the way that is Elon said back in January (or was it end Dec. ?) that they were currently producing the M3 at a rate of 1’000 per week. If that was true then production figures for whole of Q1 just don’t add up. I mean if that was true we should have expected total production of AT LEAST 15k Model 3 for the full quarter (since March was supposed to be a sharp improvement on Jan. & Feb.). This bring us back to a problem Tesla has in the person of Elon Musk that may become critical as time passes. It is not the only problem but one of the problems. The other problems are (for the main ones), how many of those 400k reversations were for the $27.5k Model 3 ? ($35k less $7.5k incentive), is Tesla making profits… Read more »
Nix
Guest
Nix
“Not bad but still not justifying the stratospheric stock price.” TSLA isn’t priced on what happened in prior quarters. If you are attempting to price ANY high growth company on prior quarter results, like they are some 100 year old stagnant company, you’ve already failed at basic investing. EVERY single stock purchase is a bet on the future of the company. If you’ve been betting based only on looking in the rear view mirror, you’ve already lost. “is Tesla making profits at all on the Model 3 when ALL costs are included ? ” Don’t tell my you are doing the same stupid math that led to idiots saying each Volt cost GM $100K to build, because they didn’t understand that car companies assign up-front costs to the entire generation/run of the model. Third-party estimates conservatively price the revenues for the current M3 generation to be 80 Billion to 120 Billion dollars. “how many of those 400k reversations were for the $27.5k Model 3” We actually know from a HUGE sample size of reservation holders, that the vast, vast majority of buyers expect to spend additional money on options. This is all detailed at model 3 info. But you know… Read more »
Pushmi-Pullyu
Guest
Pushmi-Pullyu

Another Euro FUDster said:

“…is Tesla making profits at all on the Model 3 when ALL costs are included ?”

Asking that about any car is a loaded question, since new car models don’t generally make an overall profit until the second year of production. You probably know that already; asking that is just part of your Tesla bashing agenda, innit?

“…Tesla will likely remain a good brand name bought for pennies by another car manufacturer.”

In the unlikely event that you actually believe that FUD, then better go waste even more of your money buying more Tesla “shorts”. We Tesla fans really appreciate how demand for Tesla stock by shorters has significantly inflated Tesla’s stock price, which makes it far easier for Tesla to borrow the money it needs to grow rapidly… while also taking more money away from y’all with every short squeeze. So thanks for your support!

😀 😀 😀

Go Tesla!

Get Real
Guest
Get Real

Another Euro POS is just another troll/account who can’t see the first for the trees ( and who proudly drives a clean diesel).

Even after the latest debacle of the “Tesla is about to go bankwupt” chicken little trolls like:
ClownCIE, trollftf, Mental MadBro, WillTroll, dan with a very little d, Some clueless Troll way Out There,

All of them just embarrassing themselves with their troll fest statements this weekend, you would think they would grow up and learn a little that Tesla is here to stay as the now dominant EV brand and will continue to heavily disrupt the laggards which is a good thing for consumers and the planet.