Study Says Daimler Will Overtake Tesla In EV Rank – Model 3 Issues Cited For Fall

JUL 15 2018 BY VANJA KLJAIC 225

German car makers could catch up to Tesla in just a few years

The current state of affairs at the German car industry giants – Daimler AG, BMW AG and Volkswagen AG – sort of resembles that first day of boot camp when the hardened drill sergeant comes into the dorm room at 4 in the morning and pulls off the fire alarm. In a nutshell, everybody’s scrambling and for the most part, look like headless chickens trying to make themselves look useful. However, according to Bloomberg, just like the marine recruits, after a few months of proper testing and training, the German car industry is set to reinvent itself as an electric vehicle powerhouse.

According to a consultancy’s ranking of electric automakers, Daimler AG, BMW AG, and Volkswagen AG might soon close by or surpass Tesla in the EV market. The ranking comes from PA Consulting, a consultancy specializing in management consulting, technology and innovation. Their ranking system factors in the strategy, battery technology, culture, supplier networks, partnerships and financial performance into an overall score. While this couldn’t be farther from reality (with the current state of affairs), the sheer might – engineering, design, production and financial aspects of the car industry. With that in mind, the German car makers are on a path to might swivel the odds in their favor within the next few years.

According to the forecast set by consultancy, Tesla is to remain the king of the castle to at least 2021. This is the time when the traditional rivals are set to flood the market with a variety of fully electric models, giving Tesla a run for their money. The forecast doesn’t go easy on Tesla, as it weighs down the California based automaker with a fall to seventh place. The pecking order in 2021 should see Daimler firmly at the helm. The Stuttgart based vehicle industry giant is then closely followed by BMW, the Renault Nissan Mitsubishi alliance and finally, the dieselgate struck, but clearly not that hurt – Volkswagen – filling the list’s last top spot before Tesla.

BMW Concept iX3

“Achieving CO2 targets and improving e-mobility performance go hand in hand,” Thomas Göttle, head of PA Consulting’s automotive business, said in a statement. “For the manufacturers, however, this also involves a great need for action in terms of organization and personnel.”

For Tesla, the highly-touted production issues, matched with an uncertain profit outlook, all played a major key in the lower ranking for the U.S carmaker, according to PA Consulting. However, there’s a long way to go until 2021, and Tesla Motors may well turn the tide. Their production woes are slowly becoming less of a burden, new markets are emerging for the electric car maker and overall, the demand for electric cars is ever growing.

Looks like we’ll find out in 2021 if this prediction turns out to be accurate.

Categories: BMW, Daimler, Mercedes, Tesla

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225 Comments on "Study Says Daimler Will Overtake Tesla In EV Rank – Model 3 Issues Cited For Fall"

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Toyota passing Tesla in less than 3 years? Not a chance. Last year they only had 4 people working in their new EV division.

I think this report is for the European market only and not worldwide. I think the analysis may be sound given how much commotion there is on the subject in Germany. However, their time table is pretty far off I think. For European sales, I would expect the ranking to look something like this, but much closer to 2025, or even later. 2021 is way too soon IMO, but I could be wrong.

Tesla kicked the german automakers square in the nuts. Europe is starting plans to mandate EV adoption. The giant has been awakened I believe, so the report is likely correct accept in the prediction of time.

Given that BYD and BAIC are not at the top in 2019 it cannot be worldwide…

I am not sure that it is. Daimler themselves say about 15-25% by 2025, not 2021 (and they also point out that this is contingent on infrastructure and demand, both of which they seem to imply are not in their control). Currently, Daimler produce about 2 million cars. Even with a growth rate of 10.7% (2017 revenue growth) all the way to 2025, 25% of their cars would be slightly over 1 million EVs. The idea that Tesla couldn’t achieve this or better by 2025 seems plucked from the sky. Also, 25% (the high assumption) of about 2 million vehicles is about 500k. Since their aim is 15-25% by 2025, the assumption should be that in 2021 they would not have reached this yet. Let’s be generous and say they reach 15% by 2021 (a stretch), that would be just under 500k EVs accounting for revenue growth. The goal Tesla has set should reach close to this number in 2019 so it would seem that in terms of production capacity, the accuracy of this report hinges mostly on the hope that Tesla do not hit above 500k vehicles in 2019-2021. However, 10k per week Model 3s + 100k other vehicles… Read more »

Two issues one is that 10k per week does not translate to 500K per year. There will always be shut downs for maintenance re-designs etc.
Secondly as pointed out above this is for the European market

And this is exactly why articles should print such specifics in the title;), I don’t think a single article regarding the study did this and this particular one doesn’t mention the EU market at all as far as I can see. The Bloomberg article, the original media story I think, doesn’t mention anything about the European market either. European markets are not the only markets and therefore in the grand scheme of things the conclusion is not as relevant. Also, if I am not mistaken, 10k is the average production target just like 5k is also an average production target. So an average production of 10k per week, assuming they can hit this, is indeed about 500k vehicles per year. My personal expectation is for about 400-500k total in 2019 but that would still be similar to the rosy Daimler target extrapolation I posted above for 2021, 2 years later. A more relevant title should read something like this:

Legacy Automakers could potentially overtake Tesla in the EU market within a few years

Even then, based on my first comment, this would be a stretch in my opinion.

That being said, for the German/EU car manufacturers, if they focused most of their production/sales efforts on the EU, they could probably overtake Tesla in 2021 in that particular market. In terms of worldwide production/sales though, I don’t see this happening by 2021. Most likely, they will look to match Tesla output by 2025 (I’m guessing that’s their target for EV-ICEV overall profit parity). After that, everyone will probably grow along similar lines, assuming the heavy transition costs and material supply issues don’t bankrupt/seriously impair a few of them along the way.

That’s assuming Tesla doesn’t keep growing at it’s present rate…and there’s no reason to believe it won’t. Elon has also mentioned a small car, and there’s the Model Y, the pickup, the semi etc.

Without shutdowns, 10k per week is 521,785. Before this year, Tesla usually had two one-week shutdowns a year so 500,000 is likely an estimate including shutdowns.

Personally, I think Tesla is going to have a hard time selling 500K Model 3s per year worldwide in the long term. There just won’t be sustained demand for a small sedan like that. Once the mountain of pre-orders are finally through, I would be shocked if the Model 3 can consistently sell more than 300k units annually. The Mercedes C-Class with its many variants doesn’t even sell 500k units annually and it can be sold globally with no infrastructure challenges. The Model Y could likely sustain 500K units annually, but that will necessarily cut into the Model 3 even further. Tesla has major advantages in the EV market, don’t get me wrong, but there are headwinds they have to face.

Agreed. The Model Y is the only way they can sustain 500k units/year once the first mover advantage is gone. The market for mid-to-high priced sedans is limited, and it’s not growing. The Y has much more potential than the 3.

As long as the Model 3 is the only EV competing in this class, it has potential to take a larger portion of the market in this class than any of the legacy makers. So for the next few years, I don’t think 500,000 per year is unreasonable.

“… report is for the European market”

If that is true, that’d be a a pretty glaring omission in the article.

No Toyota can come close to trying to pass a Tesla while accelerating so that’s never happening

That’s all it takes to pass Tesla.

What does this remind me of (thunk thunk thunk)…. oh yeah… all the trash talking they do before a WWE match!

If VW/Mercedes produced an actual car for each of their press releases they would be much farther ahead. Their sales are so pitiful they don’t even fall into the compliance camp.

Well, the difference is I suspect the Germans actually like to do the beta testing themselves and not leave it to the paying consumer. This means the car takes longer to get to market. Don’t worry, they have been shamed and they’re coming.

So weird that none of them can match Tesla in customer satisfaction, which subsumes all other ratings.

They’ve been developing their EV’s for over a decade now and have already released several that people seem to disregard (including the SLS and R8) because they don’t have a Tesla badge on the front. They’ve been doing their research and development and when the time is right, the price is right and the production is optimized they’ll release EV’s en masse. At a guess this will start by 2020 and by 2025 the majority of all OEM manufacturers will offer an EV in ever chassis. The car industry isn’t the old lumbering giant people like to make them out to be, they’re a 120 year old industry with lots of expertise and shouldn’t be dismissed so easily.

SLS?
R8?
What exactly are you smoking.

Mercedes offered an EV SLS in 2013. It had 740bhp/lbft and could do 2 laps of the Nurburgring without any issues.

Audi developed two stages of fully production ready R8 e-tron’s but the market wasn’t there and the cost’s unjustifiable.

Plenty of information is available out there about these cars.

None of these were sold for human-money, and less then 100 of each was produced. It was a proof of technologi – as in at any cost.

Real world car buyers don’t give a flying fig about Nürburgring lap times. If you want a ridiculously expensive prototype or hand-built race track car, then buy one… if you can afford it.

These days, such cars have no impact on what an auto maker actually mass produces. The days when race car designs, such as disc brakes, would “trickle down” into production cars, is long gone.

I AM aware of those cars. Their combined relevance was and still is ZERO.

Comparing hand built cars that were only made in the hundreds to a bass produced car…

“They’ve been doing their research and development and when the time is right, the price is right and the production is optimized they’ll release EV’s en masse.”

Only if they are going to “release” them without a battery pack!

So far, most legacy auto makers have shown no interest in even making plans for building out their own battery cell supply, let alone take steps to put such plans into action! Daimler is among those ostriches with their heads in the sand when it comes to battery supply.

Why, exactly, would a legacy automaker vertically integrate all of a sudden to make battery cells? That doesn’t fit their model at all. The auto industry has, and will continue to rely on Tier 1 suppliers for much of what goes into vehicles. This is a brilliant structure that has allowed cars to get to never before seen levels of quality and low cost. If the LG Chems, Samsungs, CATLs, etc of the world are already spending billions on cell development and production, why would car makers double the effort? Daimler already has multiple battery pack factories with more on the way, let a supplier handle cell production. It will decrease the cost long-term.

Considering how unreliable German cars are, I doubt that they will be better than anything Tesla offers.

Telsa has the highest warranty costs of any car brand in the industry and is consistently among the least reliable overall. German ICE cars are more reliable than Teslas now and an ICE car is light years more complex. I believe that Tesla has everything they need to get their quality in order (the Model S is finally average after 6 years, for example), but it’s going to take them time. I give the Germans an advantage here.

I’m pretty sure I have seen mentions that the Model S has had above average reliability rating for quite a while now…

BYD makes a lot of electric vehicles. They should at least be on the 2019 list in a serious analysis right?

“For Tesla, the highly-touted production issues, matched with an uncertain profit outlook, all played a major key in the lower ranking for the U.S carmaker, according to PA Consulting.”

If Tesla’s production issues are so severe, how are they number one through 2020? I’d like to see this report with some numbers on production unless they just assume Tesla (and BYD) go bankrupt.

I suspect this report is for the European market only. Notice GM isn’t even on the list

GM – #10
Ford – #12
FCA – #13
They are just too low to be mentioned.

Not really an objective report.

GM will never be on this list.

Kind of reminds me when tech giant Microsoft entered the smartphone market in full force. Analytics were soon to predict the demise of iPhone and Android phones. They had though simply tossed aside the power of consumer mindshare, overlooking that Microsoft had failed miserably in that regard. Today Tesla is the name of the game whenever people think of electric cars, and that’s going to stay well beyond 2021. That’s the kind of mindshare other companies envies. A lot.

I think that’s a good point. Plus, Tesla is taking market share from these companies today with the Model S, X and 3 so they can’t just count on their innate awesomeness to bury Tesla. They’ve been competing all along. If all those car companies suddenly create vehicles that are such a huge leap forward beyond Tesla all at once to the point that Tesla can’t even respond, that would be one heck of a line up. That would be really exciting actually. Every car with hyper charging, 0-60 in 1.5 s, 500 miles+ of flight range, self-driving, and self-aware? That’s the future we deserve.

I think this report is using a methodology that ranks companies based on their view of profitability so it might not be capturing all the factors involved.

Or they “leapfrog” Tesla in the things most car buyers care most about – cost and vehicle type.

Tesla say the Model 3 is likely to be the cheapest vehicle they make for the foreseeable future. The European market is dominated by small hatchbacks and small SUV’s in the £10-25k range. Tesla just aren’t planning to compete in that area and it’s completely different to their business model (high margin more expensive vehicles).

Tesla is not really going to be competing against Ford, VW, Renault or Toyota, they’re competing against BMW, Mercedes and Porsche, who themselves have loyal following and brand cache. Which would you buy if you had £40k+ to spend on a vehicle, a BEV Tesla or an BEV Porsche?

“Which would you buy if you had £40k+ to spend on a vehicle, a BEV Tesla or an BEV Porsche?”

I wouldn’t buy anything from VW personally, but I’m pretty sure Tesla outsells Porsche as of this quarter, making them the underdog in whatever far-flung future contains a 40k all-electric Porsche.

The difference is their isn’t a big difference between ICE and EV’s to the average person. For manufacturing its just a change in power plant.

That really shows a huge lack of understanding.

How embarrassing!

Not really. Most manufacturers develop their platforms now to take ICE and EV. A lot of chassis out there already have the capability, whether being used or not, and the vast majority of manufacturers are doing it for future platforms as a future proofing exercise.

That exact recycling of platforms, and failing to have a dedicated EV clean sheet design, is exactly what seems to be holding back many car makers from really being as competitive as they could be. All the little sacrifices required to have a single chassis work for both ICE and EV all add up little by little.

Yeah, we just saw the battery placement in the Toyota Prius Prime.
Incredibly bad design.

Most? They only I heard of betting their future on such a poor compromise are BMW and Volvo…

(Though Volvo might actually be developing a dedicated platform for their Polestar brand? The announcements are not really clear on that…)

“Not really. Most manufacturers develop their platforms now to take ICE and EV.”

You’ve got that exactly backwards. Trying to shoehorn a EV powertrain into a car designed to be an ICEV is precisely what is holding back legacy auto makers from being able to compete with Tesla. Well, that and a lack of battery cell supply which they control.

Compelling EVs are designed and built as EVs from the ground up. The Model S, the Model X, the Model 3, the I-Pace, the Leaf… none of these was built on an ICEV platform.

Changing powerplant, redesigning chassis, redesigning crumple zones, redesigning wiring harness, redesigning frunk-cabin-trunk spaces, and lots of minor adjustments.
Headlights, license plate and 1 or 2 other important parts can stay the same.
GM found out while three months into Bolt design, for the others it is a lesson they will learn early next decade.

It is a painful, hard lesson that will cost them billions.

Wow. Just wow.

It actually reminds me of when Blackberry was considered the unstoppable king of next generation mobile phones.

That being said, think about how obsolete your Model X will be in a few years. (You know, that one manufactured by the same “Blackberry” company that you gave your money to).

It will still drive, but yes, the X it will be obsolete among those that want the latest and greatest. That’s why it’s leased. There’s no reason to take downside risk on a car that expensive.

Still pushing the lie, eh?

And furthermore, there is no risk on a new Model S or X at this point. Latest studies showed a mere 8% average battery degradation of Tesla batteries at 160,000 miles. A new S or X will last 10 years, no probs. And the longer you own a vehicle, the less you lose. That is, if you’re all about saving money, which evidently you aren’t if you carry endless lease payments on luxury SUV’s. Oh, and Tesla does over the air software updates to their entire stable of cars, as long has the hardware is on board. So Tesla’s likely currently have the longest tech ownership legs.

The BlackBerry of EVs would be the Prius and/or the Leaf.

Tesla is the one selling the iPhones, as demand for the Model 3 shows!

Go Tesla!

The Blackberry was the phone for those with button fetishes, just like the German EV’s.

Wow. What a poor analogy.

Buttons vs. no-buttons is not the point of the analogy. The point is that the market is nascent and things can change rapidly when it comes to new technologies.

In this “study” corporations are rewarded for not introducing new technologies.

This but the other way round. Tesla is still a niche product. Outside of car enthusiast and tech enthusiast circles most people don’t care too much. They don’t want an EV, they just want a car which may end up being an EV. People who have had Audi’s and Merc’s for the last 10 years who have been very happy with them are more likely to go EV if the next A4/C class/3 series has the option, than to completely change brand to Tesla. To normal people Tesla will never have the brand cache of a premium German manufacturer.

In the US, BMW 3-series sold 3,551 units in June and Tesla is selling about 6,000 Model 3’s per month and growing. Isn’t BMW the one who needs to convert Tesla buyers, not the other way around? In fact, the Model 3 is outselling every single vehicle BMW sells in the US. The Audi A4 is similarly just at 3,894 sales in June in the US and its their best-selling sedan.

I know it’s a big worldwide market, but if the Model 3 competes anything like that elsewhere, then they aren’t the ones who need to worry.

Aw that’s cute.

BMW sold 129,000 3 series last year in Europe alone. That’s not including the 4 series.

Believe it or not but the U.S isn’t BMW’s only market.

“Aw that’s cute.

BMW sold 129,000 3 series last year in Europe alone”

So 2,475 per week in their home market? That *is* cute.

By the way, sales of the 3 series are down considerably year over year.

But BMW has more than 3 cars in their line up, not just the 3 series. They also sold 65,000 4 series in Europe on the same platform. 195,000 combined in a shrinking class in Europe alone isn’t to be sniffed at.

They did sell nearly 2.5 million cars last year worldwide, or as Tesla cultist’s like to call it, circa 48,000 cars per week.

Did you write the study in this article? Just curious. You seem to be commenting on everything and you seem emotionally invested. I’m sorry, I got caught up in that for a second.

Yes, BMW sells more vehicles than Tesla. I’m also aware that it sells in more markets than the US and has more models. I think you were originally saying that a future electric 3 series would outsell Tesla because of loyalty to the 3 series and I’m just pointing out that the 3 series is itself not competing well with the Model 3 today so brand loyalty might not apply. For whatever reason, the Model 3 seems to be a bigger hit than the 3 series where they compete.

Also, the Model 3 is a bigger hit than the 4 series which it also competes with the Model 3. Also noteworthy is that the Model 3 is only offered in up-optioned versions so there is more potential for sales growth.

I think we can at least conclude that Tesla is able to compete so BMW will have to more than show up.

Nope, nothing to do with me. I’m not particularly a big fan of BMW either.

I wouldn’t say I was emotionally invested, but I’ve been a huge car enthusiast since a very early age and currently work in an EV department of a company within the auto industry, so i get pretty excited when it comes to cars, EV’s especially.

I often have access to insider information and data that people on here make statements to the contrary. Often I’ll keep my mouth closed but sometimes I feel the need to speak up. The whole misconception that the auto industry is this big lumbering old legacy giant couldn’t be further from the truth.

I don’t think that’s what they are either, but it’s essentially the argument used here. That they will win based purely on how big they are and on loyalty.

So why is the Model 3 outselling the combined 3+4 Series already in the US though? Are Americans not loyal to BMW? It seems to buck the premise of your argument regardless of 2017 European sales.

Most populations are patriotic towards their own country. Tesla being form the US and touted as purely a US product is always going to sell well over there. They also have the monopoly in the EV market right now. If you want to buy a 300 mile plus, full size EV you pretty much only have Tesla to choose from.

Let’s give it another 5 years and see where they stand. I can only see US sales going up, but the US market has always had completely different values to the European and Asian markets and Tesla may not transfer so well to them, especially when local OEM’s begin mass EV production. Chevrolet/Cadillac/GM have tried to crack the EU market three times in the last four decades and failed miserably every time. Tesla will do better, but how well compared to traditional OEM’s I couldn’t say.

My prediction is that Tesla maintain a niche market in Europe, I think they’re too late to market for China and again will maintain a small niche market but ultimately they will maintain a large presence in the US and that will become the primary market.

So by that virtue, isn’t BMW a niche player in the US?

Having a very quick look through sales numbers suggests they sold 305,000 cars last year in the US, which isn’t insignificant but isn’t a huge amount in the grand scheme of things. That’s around 15% of total sales, so they have larger markets. I imagine it’s similar to what Tesla sales will be like in Europe.

I think Toyota and Honda created upmarket cars that took share from BWM and Audi.

Sorry, you edited your answer mid reply so I didn’t get it all.

I was only using the 3 series as an example. A huge amount of ex 3 series owners have begun to migrate to faux SUV’s now anyway, hence the dying category.

I’m not going to argue that Tesla can compete because they already are, albeit only in one sector. What I’m trying to say is that if Tesla sells 500,000 cars per year BMW only needs to convert 20% of sales to match Tesla’s EV sales rate. We know those number’s are likely to change but the point still stands. Daimler and VAG sells vastly more cars than BMW so it transfers even more so to them.

My issue isn’t with Tesla, it’s with the people who look at this study and say it’s not possible because they only see the market today and can’t grasp what it may be in 3 years time. If the big OEM’s put their minds to it, it is absolutely possible, especially in Europe and similar markets.

Sorry for the edit. I’m curious about something you just said. If BMW converts 20% of their cars, why would that change their competive situation? That would leave them in the same place or worse wouldn’t it? Tesla isn’t specifically competing with their electric vehicles. Does BMW make better electrics than their combustion vehicles? Are they cheaper? How can they guarantee that customers will snatch them up at the same rate? Has any electric conversion ever sold well?

This study is about EV market share, not overall market share. BMW has the advantage of not necessarily having to attract new customers, but only having to convince previous ones to go EV when the next generation of their favored model comes along. A conversion rate of 20% would see them selling 500,000 EV’s world wide. We don’t really know what BMW EV’s will be like yet, as they’ve only released the i3 so far, but for a first gen compact EV I don’t think it was the worst EV produced so far. Nobody knows what they will cost yet, as they are yet to be released. Nobody can guarantee the rate at which a vehicle will be bought in the future. That’s impossible. No electric conversion has sold well, mainly because no serious one has been offered yet, but partly because there hasn’t been much infrastructure to support them yet. When their EV’s do come they won’t be conversions, but based upon a chassis optimized for both EV and ICE. I’m not sure why you’re so worried about BMW, maybe because they’re as you say a niche in the US and an easy target, but I did mention Mercedes… Read more »
This study is not even about market-share. It is about e-mobility something performance. The mistake made by most legacy carmakers is designing a platform “optimized” for all powertrains. It is by definition impossible to optimize for all possible use cases. Making it suitable for all involves many compromises. And a compromised platform is not optimized. Sorry for the word play. When the legacy carmakers present their BEV those cars will be great cars without a doubt. But will they be competitive with the Tesla offerings? The first to show its colors was the Jaguar I-Pace. Many gearheads writing reviews have called it the best EV ever made. But it uses a 90kWh battery for a range the competition needs a 60kWh or smaller battery for. It is also 50% more expensive than a comparable Model 3. It is a SUV, and that is an advantage. But in 2 years the Model Y will be produced in 20 times the volume of the I-Pace and likely be better at about half the price. OK, Jaguar is a small boutique carmaker. Let us look at the Audi e-tron we will see next year. Also 50% more expensive than the comparable offering from… Read more »
Can you tell me where the production capacity to build over 400,000 vehicles for just Europe is going to come from? It’s just not going to happen, even by their own admittance. Their plan is to build two more manufacturing plants – one in Europe, one in China – and have them starting to operate in around 2021 (assuming no delays in planning/building). As you can see with the ramp up of Model 3’s it’s going to take a year or two to start producing in any number (Tesla say 3- 5 years to full production in the announced Chinese factory) even after the factory is built. Production capacity is by far Tesla’s biggest problem at the moment. They are going to have to expand significantly to really compete (sales wise) with the larger established manufacturers. Perhaps in 10 years, but 3-5 years? No chance. It’s second only to model range, which isn’t going to change much in the near future either. The next “mainstream” vehicle is likely to be the Model Y, which would take them up to five (the Roadster 2 being four presumably). Another 2-3 years before the “Pickup”, which won’t be sold in Europe if it’s… Read more »

“My issue isn’t with Tesla, it’s with the people who look at this study and say it’s not possible because they only see the market today and can’t grasp what it may be in 3 years time. If the big OEM’s put their minds to it, it is absolutely possible…”

A lot of things are possible; that doesn’t mean they are likely to happen.

In every disruptive tech revolution, some of the market leaders with the old tech fail and go out of business. In every disruptive tech revolution, some of the market leaders when things have settled back out are new players.

That doesn’t prove Tesla will become a world automotive market leader, and it doesn’t prove Daimler will fail. But the odds are that is exactly what will happen.

You fail to understand the increasingly bad market position that Daimler and other legacy automakers find themselves. Look at The Innovator’s Dilemma:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Innovator%27s_Dilemma

No! Not within 3 years.

“But BMW has more than 3 cars in their line up, not just the 3 series. They also sold 65,000 4 series in Europe on the same platform.”

Tesla started selling cars in 2008. Only 10 years later, Tesla is rapidly accelerating their pace of growth.

How many German auto makers were selling as many cars as Tesla did last year, only 9 years after they sold their first car? Hmmm?

You Tesla Hater cultists keep moving the goal posts on what qualifies as a level of production worthy of praise. In a few years, you’ll be trying to move the goal posts back back past your own end zone!

Go Tesla!

And it took them only 90 years to get there.

(They did not make cars before 1928)

Yeah, but Model 3 hasn’t been introduced there yet. BMW has less than 1 year to lead sales worldwide.

I’m not sure about BMW at this time, but it really appears that Mercedes and VW are planning on converting some of those Tesla buyers back and in Europe anyhow, I expect them to be quite successful.

Europeans are very nationalistic when they buy cars. Germans much prefer to buy German cars to any other and even in European countries that have no car manufacturing, they prefer to buy European brands over non European. I think once the germans actually field a viable competitor to the Tesla line up, Tesla sales will fall there. I expect that to be happening very soon.

North America and China are another story. There it’s not so clear.

Will this still be true though if Tesla opens a Gigafactory in Germany?…

Volkswagen appears to be realistic about the future of automobiles, and is investing billions to ensure its near-term battery cell supply. Daimler and the other German auto makers… not so much.

VW appears to be going down the path of survival for the market disruption of the EV revolution. The other German auto makers are soon going to find themselves in an increasingly desperate financial situation. Some of them are going to fail in the next 10-20 years. Daimler may or may not be one of them, but at the moment it doesn’t look too good for them. Their window for turning things around is closing fast.

VW isn’t exactly investing those billions; they just signed contract for future supply. You have no way of knowing that Daimler and other makers haven’t signed similar contracts, just not making big PR announcements about it…

The only countries in the EU which have nationalistic tendencies are Germany and France. The other parts of EU don’t care. Just give us a good car. Traditionally, US made MEH cars (bad reliability, design not suited for the European markets). Tesla is another thing for us. It’s like Nokia vs iPhone. The iPhone won because of the technology no matter how nationalistic the Finns were. Just look at the i-Pace and the e-Tron. Besides the drivetrain there’s really nothing in those that scream 21th century.

Tesla fits this “US made MEH cars (bad reliability, design not suited for the European markets)” cliché 100%. Reliability and service is horrible and car size makes it unfit to navigate or park on narrow streets of historic cities, and depending on country has potential to trigger luxury/weight taxes and special high power car insurance rates.

It is sold to European enthusiast market as the only game in town of such kind. As all the automakers who have much better clue what the local market wants are hurrying up with their new similar toys, Tesla has little chance, you don’t need studies to know it.

Contrary to popular belief, Nokia mostly lost market share to Android, not Apple. Outside of North America — where Nokia was never strong to begin with — and a few other select markets, Apple doesn’t even come close to the market share Nokia used to have.

Also, if you check actual market shares, you will see that the Finns were clinging to Nokia right up to the point where it was officially taken over by Microsoft. (Even though effectively it has been a Microsoft front for quite a while before that…)

The 3-Series is 8 years old. Cars don’t sell as well as they age, it’s a simple fact. The Model S is no longer selling like it used to either. A brand new 3-Series is coming out in the fall (with an EV version). That will be the one to watch.

Also, it’s worth noting that if somebody wants a BMW for less than $60k, they can choose a 2, 3, 4, 5, X1, X3, or X4. Likewise, if they are just looking for a luxury vehicle under $60k they can choose the same assortment from almost any other competitor. If someone wants a premium EV for under $70k they have one option: Model 3. Early sales numbers are going to be extremely skewed towards the Model 3 because early adopters are buying it because it is an EV, not because it is the best car for the money.

I live in Norway and here now it’s quite the opposite. Electrification has really upset sales, and old brand loyalties mean little. New ties are being forged. German automakers are perhaps coming up with some right models in the nick of time, but they’ve already lost a lot of sales at the high end to Tesla and now Jaguar (who would have thought). EVs are truly disrupting market shares. On the other hand impact in other countries will be less I’m sure.

“To normal people Tesla will never have the brand cache of a premium German manufacturer.”

Is that why Tesla tops the Consumer Reports list for customer satisfaction, year after year? Looks to me like it’s the German auto makers who need to catch up with Tesla, not vice versa! 😀

BTW — You mean “cachet”, not “cache”.
#GrammarNazi

Studies show that among younger people, Tesla *already* has a stronger brand than the legacy makers.

Utter bs! I owned 4 BMWs in the last 12 years and I can tell you this: I don’t miss BMW at all after driving Model 3. The car is absolutely great machine. It’s dynamic driving is just like BMW 3/4 series and blows away Audi, Mercedes in the same class A3/4, C300.

I used to love my German cars (Audi and Porsche), but the thought of going back to them now feels like I’m getting sucked in to a deep dark pit.

Many Americans, especially at the top of the market, dislike domestic cars. I don’t agree with their sentiment, but anti-American feelings among US car consumers is a reality. Given the opportunity, I think they’d choose a Mercedes EV over a Tesla just based on it being German.

I’m pretty sure most don’t dislike domestic cars in general, but rather the offerings of the “traditional” domestic brands. Tesla is not really in the same boat.

I think it’s a really good idea to reward fraud.

What a joke. So Tesla falls to last place in a few short years when not a single one of these companies makes a competitive ev.
Worthless drivel.

True dat. But these guys will sell lots of these “independent studies” to the German cos. to distribute to their investors and stock analysts. And who is going to remember this in 3 years? Or 3 months for that matter.

Right, but I could give useful information for much less. Or any number of people could. But, if I was a boss and I paid for this garbage, in two years when it came a cropper, I would demand my money back. I certainly would remember paying the money for this forgettable study.

Well no, none of these companies makes a competitive EV right now, but that’s not what this study is about….. It’s a study into what MIGHT happen by 2021 (it’s 2018 atm).

Analytics will surely always be willing to cater for their customers, although doing them a disservice. It must be almost impossible to predict anything for certain concerning a rapidly evolving technology. Drivel it is.

At this point for Tesla to be successful after 2025 I think they need to change a few things. They can only play the tech industry approach for so long, this is the car industry and Tesla isn’t a start up company anymore. The biggest change I would make is Elon Musk. He’s an incredibly intelligent visionary who is great at developing new products and ideas, but at this point for sustainability it’s time to bring in some experienced people who have done this before to run the production side and keep Musk as an adviser. This would also give him more time to work on his other world changing products.

Obviously some people are going to have a hissyfit now because they’ll perceive this as a negative attack on their great almighty leader despite me not actually saying anything negative. The auto industry has had 120 years to perfect what it does now with over 100 years of mass production. Musk thought he knew better and it’s not worked out that way. Sometimes you have to accept that you don’t always know better.

We’re just gobsmacked by your arrogance that you believe yourself capable of making intelligent decisions about this.

I’m not really making any decisions here. I’m not in charge of anything. I’m not sure what gave you that idea. I’m just giving an experienced opinion, there’s as much chance that I’m right as I am wrong, we’ll find out in the future.

But instead of trying to question my intelligence please feel free to try to debate why you think I may be wrong, that would be much more constructive. I personally think his work at Tesla is mostly done and it’s time for him to apply his mind to other projects that can further the human race, EV adoption isn’t the only problem we face right now….

If you actually wanted a serious debate, perhaps you should have refrained from inflammatory wording.

“We’re just gobsmacked by your arrogance…”

No, just you. I’m impressed by his perception and judgement, and his ability to express his ideas concisely and succinctly.

I’m thinking that removing and replacing the face that everyone associates to the massive brand that is Tesla based on mixing things up would be ridiculous. Until Elon runs the ship onto the rocks, I’d say there’s no reason to replace him. His successes FAR outweigh his failures, and until that pendulum shifts, I don’t see the reason in arbitrarily replacing him.

And while you don’t like being categorized wrongly as negatively attacking, don’t flip around and do the same to the opposite views vis-a-vis calling him our “great almighty leader.” He’s a man to me, and I like his cars, period. Same goes for many others who drive Teslas. While some may worship at his feet on the extreme, the opposite of the spectrum despise him for merely existing at this point. The majority of us dismiss both.

Have an awesome Sunday!

Thank you for a level headed response. I see the Tesla cultists who blindly follow Musk and get upset at any criticism to be just as bad as the people who blindly spew hate at anything Tesla related. I’m not trying to make a false equivalency, but those people are just as dangerous as each other. I apologize if I come across as attacking people who fall into neither of those groups.

I don’t think he should be replaced as such, but I think it would be in the companies interests to let him take a step back and let more experienced people get more involved in the production process.

For the record, I’d like to say that I greatly admire Musk and his many achievements and likewise I cannot deny the success of Tesla so far, but I believe it’s not always wise to base your future decisions on the past. Tesla is in the big leagues now and they might have to start making adjustments to keep ahead.

Right on Dave100e- now THIS is the kind of discussion I wish we still had here! It’s baffling to me to see anyone thumbs you down, but in light of the majority of discourse here any more, I’m honestly not very surprised. You make some valid points, refreshing to have courteous perspectives.

Dave, the reason you and others get insulted on a regular basis is because you and others are unable/unwilling to simply admit when you’ve gotten it wrong in the face of being shown the actual facts. That is not rational conversation.

So let me give you a chance to correct your incorrect assumptions in your post, and we’ll see if you can earn your way into rational conversation.

You state that “it’s time to bring in some experienced people who have done this before to run the production side”. This statement (the core of your post) is based upon a false assumption that Tesla has not already brought in experienced people to run production. That falsehood undermines your entire post.

If you wish to join in on rational discussion, please post a list of at least 3 people or companies Tesla has brought in from outside who are experienced in production/manufacturing, and correct your erroneous assumption.

I don’t spend every living moment of my life hoovering up information about Tesla, but okay, I’ll give it a go…. First and most obviously we have Panasonic, who are not only a Battery supplier but there to assist and advise. The battery production issues are well documented so I won’t go on about that too much as I believe a lot of the issues are dealt with now. I know they have Musk and his “experts” running around like headless chickens trying to solve problems when their interns are casually fixing them for them. That’s not necessarily an inherent fault with Tesla though, that happens in all industries when management reach a point where they can’t see the wood for the tree’s. I’m not from the US, so I don’t know who the board of directors/advisers are, they’re not significant names to me so I don’t remember them, but I believe one of them is his brother and they are from industries such as media and food but not so much motor vehicles or specialists in mass production. I’m sorry I can’t answer your question more detailed than that, I see that its not a great answer but as… Read more »

Dave, it is OK for you to simply say “I don’t know” instead of making snide comments about those of us who have simply read the stories here on insideev’s and know Tesla has ALREADY hired “experienced people who have done this before to run the production side”.

You also lose points for trying to drag in new BS to try and change the topic to cover for the fact that you simply don’t know about the people experienced in running production that Tesla has already brought into Tesla.

In fact, Tesla hired Audi’s A4 head of production to head the Model 3, so they are already doing what you say they should do:

https://insideevs.com/tesla-hires-audi-production-exec-to-oversee-ramp-of-model-3/

Here is what he had to say about Tesla: “The cars we build are about seven years beyond everything I’ve seen before”

A simple, “Oh, thanks, I didn’t know Tesla had already done what I was calling for” is all you need to say.

The Toyota Fremont factory did final assembly of parts produced elsewhere.
Tesla bought an empty building, not a stopped car factory they could restart.
Tesla is far more vertically integrated. No comparison there.

Tesla hired top manufactory managers from both Audi and Daimler.
The problem was a complete new product on a complete new line with a complete new workforce in half the time any sane person would have thought was over ambitious.
They are still a year ahead of the original schedule. The one all experienced outside advisors said was impossible for Tesla to realize.

Lack of experience in all parts of the organization were an important reason for the many problems.
Lack of knowledge about how it ought to be doen freed them to open new avenues.

It might sound strange, but what frightens me is how much Tesla has learned of the Model 3 problems. I would like to see Daimler, VW, RNM-Alliance and GM to be leaders beside Tesla. But Tesla is accelerating and I don’t know what is coming.

“Tesla bought an empty building, not a stopped car factory they could restart.”

That’s at least a fairly strong exaggeration, if not simply incorrect. Tesla’s Fremont assembly plant, formerly the NUMMI assembly plant, had much of the factory equipment still in place and more or less in working order when Tesla took possession.

From Wikipedia:

NUMMI auctioned off the press lines, robots and other equipment to Toyota’s other US factories while Tesla purchased over $17 million of manufacturing equipment and spare parts in 2011, at significant discounts compared to new equipment…

Various parts of the NUMMI plant were planned to be modified to support Tesla vehicle production. For example, the passenger vehicle paint equipment was to be extensively modified…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Factory#Background

Nix said:

“You state that ‘it’s time to bring in some experienced people who have done this before to run the production side’. This statement (the core of your post) is based upon a false assumption that Tesla has not already brought in experienced people to run production. That falsehood undermines your entire post.”

The problem isn’t that Tesla hasn’t hired people with experience building automobiles or installing production lines. The problem is that Elon thinks he knows more than everybody else put together, and insists on trying to micromanage everything instead of delegating responsibility. That approach to being a general manager is increasingly less and less appropriate as Tesla continues to grow in size.

(continued…)

(continued from above)

Case in point: The failure of the automated Model 3 battery pack assembly line at Gigafactory 1. We saw a report that there was disagreement between Tesla’s engineers and those who built the automation machines, as to how the line should be set up and operated.

Do you really think that this would have happened if everybody at Tesla wasn’t required to toe the line of Elon’s vision for automating absolutely every process? Surely there were many engineers at Tesla who had serious questions about setting up a production line in a manner which had never been tried before, based on Elon’s abstract ideas about using the “laws of physics” to make automation run faster.

If Elon had properly delegated the task of designing and installing the Model 3 battery pack production line to those with experience at such things, then the odds are very good that things would have gone much smoother.

Getting rid of the visionary leader sure worked well for Apple.

Tesla isn’t Apple. And a light industry manufacturer making consumer electronic devices is a very different business than a heavy industry manufacturer making automobiles.

By 2025 the energy part of Tesla (storage and generation) might be larger than the automotive part. The third part of the company, energy and mobility as a service, could be even the biggest part. I personally don’t belief in all these “as a service” endeavors. What Tesla is not, is a normal car company. It is a tech company that also makes cars. In a recent interview Elon admitted that they tried things that were not possible. The interviewer asked Elon why they did not listen to all the experienced carmakers who told them so. Well, said Elon, they always tell us that what we are going to do is not possible. If we had listened to them, Tesla would not exist. I think this is an example of a broken clock that is right, two times each day. Tesla makes many mistakes, but I have not seen them make the same mistake twice. If they continue executing the current plans, just as effectively as the Model 3 ramp, they will pass BMW in 2022/23 and Daimler in 2024/25. Of course many things can happen between now and the middle of the next decade. but that prediction is based… Read more »

You’ve said it very well, sir! I’ve said very similar things more than once, but you put it better than I ever did.

And I’ve earned the right to say that, because I certainly praise Tesla to high heaven often enough. 🙂

“it’s time to bring in some experienced people”

Not necessary. Tesla’s don’t have a combustion engine and don’t need cheating software.

I wish the people who don’t even drive EV stop writing stupid articles like Bloomberg. There’s no way in hell “luxury” CCS cars are going to sell when they must wait an hour or two at DCFC for free charging Leaf, i3, Bolt. Just the other day, there were 6 free chargers (4 Maven Bolts, 2 new Leaf) waiting at 2 handle site. Yeah, wait would’ve been well over 2 hours since each insist on full hour after being tapered to hell, because it’s free and my time is worthless to them.

Now if I paid Mercedes money to wait 2+ hours to charge at DCFC even once, I’d return the car and ask for my money back. There’s no way people who buy “luxury” are going to put up with such crap.

Free charging SUCKS!!!!!

They need to have a more cohesive system for dealing with the sorts of problems that arise from their charging methodology.

With Tesla, charging network is not about generating profits through charging EV, but about supporting their car sales. Tesla has vested interest in keeping their charging network to operate smoothly. If that means kicking out / limiting free charging abusers, they will do so as we’ve seen.

But with CCS and independent operators, they are about profit from charging alone. That means they’ll sell out to highest “we offer free charging” bidder like Nissan, BMW, Maven, damn the user experience. As such, CCS are doomed to people who will put up with 2+ hour waits from time to time. Frankly, I’m having second thoughts on BoltEV, might get rid of it sooner than I hoped, and I’m not even a luxury car buyer.

It doesn’t suck with the Supercharging network. Because Tesla has done what I’ve continually pointed out- MULTIPLE stalls to handle the traffic. Plus, by charging so much faster, Superchargers free up so much faster.

Tesla has it figured out. And what’s funny, is the ICE manufacturers that attempt to compete with them don’t simply mimic their success- they try and find the cheap ways around it, which there aren’t any.

Free charging makes Superchargers suck, too. That’s why Tesla limited Supercharger to S/X who were unusually high free charger to keep good user experience for everyone. Unless there are infinite handles and infinite sites, unchecked free charging will make everyone miserable. Did I mention,

Free charging SUCKS!!!!!!!!

“Yeah, I heard you the first time.”

Although I don’t quite understand, “who were unusually high free charger to keep good experience for everyone.” Nor do I understand infinite handles or sites. I don’t know what a ‘handle’ is, but if you mean chargers, you don’t need infinite amounts. You only need enough to keep waits to a minimum, if at all.

For my second time, free charging doesn’t suck. Unless you own a Tesla and have formed that opinion for yourself somehow, you should just take my word for it.

Apparently you have hard time extrapolating data that CCS clogging due to free chargers or you believe there’s magic in them Teslas. Tesla free charging is “working” because they are managing them and not allowing abusers. If Tesla allowed unlimited free charging for all their cars, you can betcha that Superchargers, no matter how numerous, will be hopeless clogged like with CCS.

You don’t have to drive Tesla to know basic economics. If you’re new to Tesla, I suggest you study what they do to those who overuse free supercharging. Once again,

Free charging SUCKS!!!!!!!!!!

I love my free charging. Tesla does some common sense fining for staying at a stall when done. I have never waited to charge.
I rarely go get free electrons. Why bother? – Assuming an average 70 kw charging – that is like $7 an hour, not counting getting to the charger. I would assume that everyone driving a Tesla values their time more than $7 an hour. It just isn’t worth it.
Hey – I use free chargers at work all the time because I am cheap. And whenever a spot is open – but then it is not a special trip and it is a parking space I was going to anyway.

One would think almost everyone value their time more than $7/hr, but that isn’t the case based on CCS/Chademo free chargers. People sit there for the whole hour even after charge has tapered to 3 kW (out of 50 kW). Since Tesla 3 pricing is roughly BMW i3 price, unlimited free charging on Tesla 3 will have people sitting in their cars at supercharger for hour or more. All Tesla owners should be glad that Tesla stopped free charging, because

Free charging SUCKS!!!!!!!!!!

SparkEV, you must not have any clue to the MASSIVE differences between CCS/Chademo chargers and Superchargers. CCS are typically 1-4 stalls, max and charge at about 36-60 kw, while Supercharger speed is 60-120 kw, or, TWICE as fast. Supercharging locations are typically 3 stalls minimum, but usually more than that, up to 40 stalls (Kettleman City). It’s not even close. If the Supercharging network was CCS in it’s current form, we wouldn’t even be having this discussion. But it’s not. Not only do Supercharging stations turn around twice as fast as CCS, they have 3-4 times as many stalls, which makes the turnover even faster.

If you’re basing all free charging on CCS, no wonder you think it sucks. Because (again, for the third time) free Supercharging doesn’t suck. Sounds like you should pick up a Tesla..

Again, you are unable to extrapolate the data. Tesla effectively sold over 500k plus cars, well over 10 times CCS cars. So if you want to have just as much clogging as CCS with free chargers, each Tesla site should have at least 20 handles and sites as closely spaced as CCS. And if you want to reduce (not eliminate) clogging with 500K Teslas, you need 6 times that based on CCS free chargers, which is 120 handles per site. Good luck with that.

If you think Tesla spend less time at Supercharger due to higher peak power, you are clueless about charging. People don’t charge just to 25% when Tesla power begins to drop. They stay far longer (some well over 80%) when the power has tapered significantly, even less than 48kW that SparkEV charges at 80%. That takes 45 minutes, even longer than free charging Leaf and three times as long as typical SparkEV.

If you think free charging is so wonderful, you are clueless. Even Tesla recognizes that free charging doesn’t work and do not offer free charging anymore, nor do they offer pre-paid option. That’s because Tesla recognizes that

Free charging SUCKS!!!!!!

I’m well aware of what taper is regarding battery charging. You can spin it however you want, I judge Superchargers with my eyes and my experience. I just used one today in Truckee that has 8 stalls, and there were 2 of us there this morning at 9 am. Tesla owners tell you that Superchargers work. And the vast majority of charging done at Superchargers is FREE. It’s no longer free because it isn’t sustainable financially for Tesla. But for the time being, it works, everyone gets along at the Superchargers, turnover rate for vehicles is quick, most owners only use them in order to travel long distance and not for daily use. You can simply choose to ignore me and my experience on the topic, feel free. As far as continuing to debate someone with their mind obviously permanently made up, you can count me out at this point.

Enjoy not using Superchargers, have a good day now.

Are you suggesting that going to charge my luxury Dalimer EV in 2021, at my local Walmart here in the US, on the EVgo CCS charging network, will absolutely “SUCK”?

The trash strewn Walmart congested parking lot “Luxury” charging experience, is where I plan to stand out with my cool Euro EV!

Funny. 🙂

Actually some Walmart parking lots are covered with solar canopy, so it feels pretty good charging under them. But I doubt many “luxury” drivers feel the same way, especially if they see people fighting and what not.

A link to the “report” would be useful (unless it’s a paywall report). That said, most of the competitors listed as beating Tesla could do so – if they actually committed to EV’s in large numbers. By 2021 Tesla will have two mass production models (3 & Y), two face-lift premium priced cars (S & X) and one Hypercar (2020 Roadster) for a combined 1.7 M cars per year (GF3 should be nearly completed and cranking out 500,000 cars just for China).

Funny how the other automakers give no sales guidance, only vague release dates. It is expected that the EV industry will face ongoing battery constraints until at least 2022.

I think the vague release dates are because they’re not sure when products will be suitably developed and ready for market and the vague figures are because truly nobody really knows how well EV’s will sell at first. The next 10 years in the auto industry is a complete unknown for everyone, including Tesla.

It is not a complete unknown to everybody. Tesla is pretty sure they can’t scale fast enough to satisfy demand until at least 2025. Unless they get a lot of help from the legacy carmakers, making high volumes of BEV, that situation can continue for a few more years.
The big unknown is the supply curve of the equation, the demand curve is a classic s-curve can be known within acceptable margins.

You have to pay for the report. PA Consulting is in the business to sell reports like this to companies like MB and BMW, and to parts suppliers and investors who think they can gain insights by reading the report.

This teaser is the sales pitch for selling the report. Even if Insideev’s purchased the report, they likely would be restricted in what they could reprint publicly. I run into that more often than you might think, where I would LIKE to cut and paste stuff onto insideev’s, but I can’t.

Precisely.

“if they actually committed to EV’s in large numbers”?
Ummm… BMW signed a 5 billion Euro contract for batteries last week and VW signed a 20+ billion dollar contract for batteries a couple of months ago… I think that qualifies as a commitment to a large number of EVs…
Mercedes is making everything a BEV from their Smart cars to their Buses and Semis…

A significant part of those batteries are for hybrid cars, not EV.

A €5B battery contract is for 400k – 700k vehicles. Over how many years should these cars be build?
The VW contracts, $45B worth between now and 2025 is for less vehicles than RNM-Alliance or Tesla intend to build between now and 2022.

But never the less both claim this as proof of their leadership, clearly oblivious of what is happening outside their own company.

Tesla will have some 10-15% market share, just like the iPhone, whose marketing they are following.

It would be great. It would mean about 10M EV will be sold in 2021. Too bad, it will not be true.

This PA Consulting Group EV forecast serves as a huge disservice to the traditional car makers because it further contributes towards the false narrative that Tesla is not able to compete against the establish car makers. The traditional car makers are big time underestimating the growing Tesla competitive threat that will likely challenge the very survival of some of those car makers on that ranking list. The German brands dealer franchise owners in North America are already starting to feel the Tesla effect especially BMW.

Three years from now Telsa will likely still be # 1 on that list and the traditional car makers will still be then taking about how they will have Tesla killers going into production in just a few years and how soon those EVs will have access to convenient and reliable fast charge network.

Meanwhile Tesla will continue to innovate at a rapid rate and continue to build out its fast charge network.

Either that, or none of the companies on the list will be on top. The top company could be a consolidated BYD with many other regional Chinese EV companies who merge and then go global in sales. There is a reason why the Chinese Gov’t is FORCING consolidation in their EV industry.

@Nix said: “…The top company could be a consolidated BYD…”
————

For “global” EV sales BYD is already #1 due to high number of China sales. For North America and Western Europe BYD will likely struggle to get traction for a long while… marginal quality & little innovation… but cheap.

Yes, BYD is already #1, but I would not dismiss their ability to move into US and EU markets so quickly. GM is already selling a Chinese built PHEV in the US. Partnerships could go a long way towards breaking the global market wide open for them.

Having seen some of the more recent BYD’s, I’m not so sure I would agree with quality and innovation being a problem by the 2020’s. The latest BYD’s aren’t like the E6 they started building a decade ago.

Besides, there are a ton of cars sold in the US and Europe that match the description of “marginal quality” and “little innovation”. If US/EU companies and US/EU governments want to be leaders in their own EV industry in their own nations, they need to pay attention to the leaps and bounds Chinese EV makers have been making, and the push that the Chinese gov’t has been putting behind EV’s.

For us, the consummer, it can only benefit to be more builders in the electric race, and in one of them can make a good car with 500 km range for 5000 euro…. it is the best outcomme.
They can be each year another one of them on the lead for what i am consorned, just to make good cars for few money

That would be excellent news for Tesla! Because the only way those other car makers can grow their EV sales numbers that fast would be to offer EV versions of their gas cars that crush their gas cars in every way, eating hard into the ICE market share. The more people buy, own, and love EV’s that are better than the ICE cars that are available, the bigger the pool of buyers Tesla has to sell to. A rising tide of EV sales rises all boats, and a being in the top 10 of a very large market is much better than being at the top of a very small market. Tesla can still rapidly gain TOTAL sales, even if they no longer sweep the #1, #2, and #3 top sales slots like currently on the Plug-in Sales Scorecard. Tesla was never going to replace every ICE car sale for every company all by itself, and never expected to. Elon has been clear from the beginning that one of his goals at Tesla was to prove that EV’s can be the superior car to ICE cars in the same class, period. And that building cars that accomplish this would move… Read more »

All good points, but zero chance, purely because of battery availability, that anyone will be beating Tesla to the No 1 spot by 2021. 2025, maybe.

Well, three years seems to be enough to build and ramp a battery factory… They would have to make the commitment *now*, though.

In 3 years.
ROFL.

Bla bla bla.

Thats why „consulting“ has a bad taste.

Moderators, are you aware? There is no issue with upvotes, but when click on downvote, 1,2, or 3 upvotes miraculesly instantly appear. Every time. Hopefully, it is only a glitch.

It works fine on you…
What you probably see is the refreshing.

That means that other people have downvoted a comment between the time your browser loaded the page, and when you clicked the downvote. It does happen with upvotes too.

It happens because the page doesn’t update the thumbs numbers live each time somebody thumbs something. But it does update to the latest totals when you thumb something up or down.

It must be a glitch. It should reset on refresh. It is working fine here upon several tests in multiple articles.

Ya, sure.

Vanja, a table with rankings is pretty meaningless without explaining how the ranking is derived… Quick googling seems to imply that this is some kind of point system, rather than unit or money terms, but no details are given. Do you know anything about the metrics used?

Doesn’t that just make you want to buy the report to find out? *grin*

Giving only partial information is one of the ways consultants can tease the contents of their reports publicly in a press release/sales pitch while holding back any real information only to paid customers. Nothing anybody can do about it.

But these conclusions are so ridiculous that it only gives insiders a good laugh.

They might still be willing to shell out the peanuts, just to make sure there isn’t some valuable insight hidden among the trash… Or at least to get a better idea what kind of erroneous assumptions analysts make about the EV market.

“Doesn’t that just make you want to buy the report to find out? *grin*”
(-;
During the Internet gold rush period of 1999-2000 I worked for a VC, where we shelled out $100Ks/year for reports by “experts”. We very quickly found out that in disruptive tech and rapidly changing new markets, none of the “experts” has any idea, and their predictions tend to be wrong by orders of magnitude. There’s simply nothing to base the forecasts on. We very quickly stopped spending a cent on that stuff.
More seriously, there is something that can be done about content-free reports: Not giving them free PR by mentioning them here.
It’s different when a report publishes a public free summary that contains real data, in order to promote some readers’ buying the report for the details — that’s a fair exchange. But this “report” is pure BS. Ditto for everything done by Navigant.

Reading this future prediction reminded me of something I watched recently. I was watching some past TEDs from 2011 and in one the speaker was really excited of the huge commitments the germans (VW and BMW) took and how many new long range ev will supposedly be on the roads by 2015. We are in 2018 and all we got is a decade of broken promises and some poor excuses of evs. These supposed high tech top manufacturers somehow got their ass kicked by GM and Tesla in the race of first long range reliable evs… but hey, it will be different this time. Talk about over promising and under delivering.

Thank you!

Sometimes I find it appalling just how short the memories seem to be, for those who predict the EV market. There is no acknowledgment at all of just how abysmal nearly all of the professional market forecasters have been, regarding how the EV market has developed… or hasn’t.

I see a lot of ‘this EV is going to beat that EV’ stuff here. What are these legacy manufacturers going to do about EVs beating out their ICE offerings and that effect on their overall sales?

Does PA(Predictably Anti-Tesla) Consulting think that Tesla will stop growing or lose the Gigafactory battery advantage or both?
Maybe they have current overall earnings, as opposed to likely future earnings, far more heavily weighted.

“According to the forecast set by consultancy, Tesla is to remain the king of the castle to at least 2021.”

No. The article shows Tesla as No. 7 EV mfg by 2021. Did the writer of the article not even look at his source or what he posted?

And hard to see anyone coming close to Tesla’s likely 1,000,000 a year EV sales by 2021.

Just around the corner!

Checking this morning, Tesla has now 1,323 Supercharge sites with over 10,000 actual charging stations around THE WORLD. Good luck to the legacy companies trying to equal that since: 1. Tesla has also priority location agreements for double that number of charge stations; 2. Tesla has already worked on their contracts with utility providers to support THOSE charging stations (the actual power to support a quick/Super charger station is MUCH more than a simple neighborhood transformer); and 3. Tesla OWNERS are amazing EVangelists promoting ALL of Tesla’s values and features…and that cadre is growing every week by leaps with the deliveries of the Model 3.

As a Ph.D. in psychology research, it is easy to skew the results of a study/survey to satisfy one’s sponsors by simply NOT ASKING THE EMBARASSING QUESTIONS. Yes, there will be MORE COMPETITION, and more options in the marketplace, which is good for the consumer. But until the legacy car companies provide a real, powerful, national, charging infrastructure, Tesla will continue to dominate this evolving market.

Sorry “Big Guys, you are a bit too late and you are still MISSING THE BOAT as to what makes an EV functional and valued.

At around 2021 – 2022 I expect Tesla to overtake BMW, both in vehicles sold and total revenue.
It could become 2023 if the Model Y and/or the Tesla Pick-Up experience the same problematic ramp as the Model 3.

But Tesla overtaking BMW with the current corporate strategies is unavoidable.
The only non-Chinese competitor to Tesla is the RNM-Alliance.
They might have the same volume of BEV sold, but Tesla will have a higher revenue.

I’m not so sure. Future plans announced for RNM are rather depressing. They don’t seem any more ambitious than most other legacy makers — perhaps less than some…

“Will Overtake”
“could catch up to”
“is set to”
“might soon close by or surpass”
“on a path to might swivel the odds in their favor”
“set to flood the market”
“should see”

Haha

Good to see that somebody is counting the “weasel words”! 😀

Tesla is so far ahead of the competition that it’s going to take many years for them to just catch up with where Tesla is today. As of today none of the competition on the list has an EV offering over 200 miles on sales anywhere in the world. No competition for Model S, none for Model X and none for Model 3. ZERO. Then there is the global Supercharger network that is expanding daily. With Model 3, Tesla has moved from a low volume premium EV manufacturer to a high volume EV manufacturer. Just this year alone with one manufacturing plant in the US, Tesla should produce about 250k EVs, with 2019 offering up to 500k…just in the US. Then there is the new China plant coming up with a 500k capacity as well. The difference is that the other auto-manufacturers talk about what they are ‘going’ to do and could do, while Tesla is actually doing it. Another big benefit for Tesla is that they don’t have ICE investments to split their focus when launching EVs. No need to try and protect the investments of their own competing ICE vehicles with a new EV model. I also think… Read more »

Why is VW on the list?
Because they are currently the 5th biggest selling BEV/PHEV car company in the world right NOW and just surpassed Nissan in May…
VW sells a whole lot more eGolfs and PHEVs in the EU than in their 4th most important market which would be the US…
VWs BEV flood gates will start opening next year in China where they are the number 1 brand and are mandated to sell a whole lot of BEVs in 2019…

https://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2018/06/global-top-10-may-2018.html

BEVs are simple compared to ICE and Tesla is ahead per say but not by years…
I am a TESLA FAN but not a fanboy and the reality is that cash is king in the real world and in the auto world you can add production capacity to that fact (Tesla is short on both)…
Tesla would have to increase their 2017 production capacity by 100 to catch the capacity of GM, Toyota, VW, or the Renault/Nissan/Mitsiu alliance…
That is why the legacy auto makers WILL surpass Tesla at some point in the future be it 2019 or 2021…
Tesla is awesome but thinking they will not be overtaken is living in fantasy land…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_manufacturers_by_motor_vehicle_production

If someone else is ahead of you by several years, and you are still struggling to get your fat rear moving, might it be out of line to assume that in a few years, the situation will be the same? Or worse?

The fat rears of legacy auto makers started moving 3 to 5 (average time 5 years from paper to production with out cutting corners) years ago and next year will begins their real offerings…
Does the past dictate the future? So it will never change?

Yes, the big manufacturers finally separated their fat asses from the chair they were sitting 10 years ago and moved to another chair, one that looks different but serves the same purpose…. maximize profits from ice. Stop drinking the cool aid.

Nah, next year — just like this one — will only bring a select few new models, that have been in the works for a while as low-priority projects, until recent events raised their profile. Going by current announcements, we won’t see more than one or two EVs per brand until about 2021; that’s when we should finally see new EV models showing up in earnest. Surely not a coincidence that it’s 5 years after 2016, when the Model 3 reservations made waves…

Sure, but PA Consulting isn’t going to get companies like Daimler to pay them big bucks for their market forecast by pointing out the reality! They have to rig the report to paint a rosy picture for the company or companies to whom they’re trying to sell their fish wrapping paper.

In the real world, if you want to see which auto makers are serious about building plug-in EVs in large numbers in the near future — and which are not — then just count the ones which have invested billions of dollars ensuring near-future supply of battery cells.

Daimler? Not so much!

2021 is 3 years away; by then Tesla will have SEXY, semi, a truck and a china plant.
… so far those companies don’t have EV cars and don’t have demand.

Pretty much every BEV model sold in the EU has a wait time measured in multiple months be it Tesla, VW, BMW, Nissan/Renault, Hyundai, KIa… no demand?

As in other world affairs EU doesn’t count

Be interesting to see who payed for this forecast. Seems like in addition to concept car vaporware the Germans are adding forecasts to convince the public they’re in the game.

Remember that all those manufacturers still need to grapple with the conundrum of eating into their ICE ranges and the impact that will have on profits as well as the lower revenue from spare parts and servicing.

Another Euro point of view

This study is silly but the most entertaining was not in the article but in the comments section. A silly study most likely made to please people who ordered it nevertheless triggered 130 comments mainly because it non validly puts into question the Tesla narrative, this (I never understood) never fails to put many EV “enthusiasts” (…) in melt down/panic mode. EV sites will be a much better place when each of the EV manufacturers will hardly hold more than 3% of the market. Right now it is still in circus mode with tents, “pedo divers” & fans clapping.

@Another Euro point of view said: “…A silly study most likely made to please people who ordered it nevertheless triggered 130 comments…”
—————-

Most Tesla fans hope that a robust competitive EV market eventually emerges which not if but when does come to fruition would mean that Tesla was successful in their primary mission to spark other car makers to offer compelling EV offerings. Tesla fans are also not shy to defend Tesla when Tesla naysayers try to paint Tesla as a failing enterprise unable to compete against the established car makers.

I don’t know of a single Tesla fan that desires to see only Tesla successful in the EV space… not even Tesla desires that.

I don’t see meltdown/panic. I see a lot of people seeing how silly the study is, and feeling compelled to express their opinion. That’s what people do.

Another Euro point of view

Maybe I saw too much into it but still 160+ comments about an article for a non event such as this study is an awful lot and that tells something.

It’s not a meltdown, it’s frustration. Same crap, same promises, different day, same result. I reached the conclusion that only ev trolls brag about the “extensive” ev collection we can choose from these days.

“…never fails to put many EV “enthusiasts” (…) in melt down/panic mode.”

Dude, when everyone else is reacting very differently than you are, then maybe the problem isn’t the attitude of everyone else. Maybe the problem is your attitude. Ever consider that? 😀

* * * * *

This isn’t really relevant, but it reminds me of this parody:

“If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs, it’s just possible you haven’t grasped the situation.” — Jean Kerr

Another Euro point of view

All I am expecting is a little more self confidence, this article should have got 10 comments max. I mean there are so many of those “studies”, 95% of them are worthless.

No one cares about the study, dude. It’s just a future prediction and unless they have a crystal ball it means it’s just a guess. What people are barking at here is the slow response from your beloved manufacturer when it comes to ev production and promotion. Maybe BMW doesn’t deserve to be in the same discussion with VW and Benz but they could have done more. I guess lobbying to keep the pollution standards low is cheaper and more convenient.

Another Euro point of view

About those manufacturers slow response let’s hope that Tesla starts making profits as from now as an incentive for other car manufacturers to accelerate the transition. Also a new car development program takes about five year so we might soon be in a situation where a new EV is launched every 3 months (I would say as from mid 2019).

Who paid for this “study”? Let me guess — Daimler paid for it, right?

When it comes to ramping up EV production, most of the legacy auto makers are ignoring the elephant in the room, and that is battery supply. VW has at least committed some billions of dollars to ensuring future supply, but so far only Tesla and BYD have actually committed the money and resources to actually build out battery cell supply that they control.

It’s “Put up or shut up” time. If legacy auto makers like Daimler are not willing to put up the money and resources to build high-capacity battery cell factories which are controlled by the auto maker, and not controlled by battery suppliers, then they should shut up about any plans to build EVs in high volume.

Let’s take a look at the historical record. Nissan used to own their battery supply — whole lot of good did it do them. BYD owns their battery supply — they hit a serious snag when sales of their no longer competitive passenger BEV models collapsed over the past years or two. Tesla cooperates with Panasonic, but makes sure to keep them at arms length, so as not to become too dependent.

So much for the value of owning battery supply.

Any company that wants to catch Tesla now… can sign up to an alliance with Tesla, Buy into the Supercharger Network, and buy powertrains from Tesla. They could be in the EV leadership position top 5 right away. But so far as I can see, none of these are even serious yet… could have been for the last 10 years but chose to sleep instead. So… next few years… we’ll see but I seriously doubt it.

Another Euro point of view
I believe that a few years (3 for ex.) from now will just witness an amplification of what we see now, that is: 1/ Now in the US, Tesla is at the top, I take it that within 3 years it will remain that way but with sales a little more spread out in between manufacturers as opposed to what we see now when Model 3 is still going through backlog list. Car manufacturers have little incentive to crack the US market, it is shrinking in relative importance, gas is cheap, litigation risk is extremely high and Tesla very well established. 2/ In China Tesla models taken individually are barely making it in the top twenty (see EV sales blog charts), I do not expect this to change as China EV market is exploding in a price range too low for Tesla to compete. Thus I expect Tesla market share to continue to decrease with a little slow down when Model 3 is introduced but accelerating again after a while. 3/ In Europe we will see the current trend continuing that is Tesla’s market share slowly shrinking despite number of total cars sold increasing. I am quite confident of this… Read more »

Tesla’s share is falling in a growing market, as more people are willing to buy budget EVs. However, with the Model 3 being fairly close in price (once the base model becomes available), I’m not sure this trend will continue the same way.

When this happens Elon has succeeded in his mission to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport. Either he ‘wins’ with Tesla or ‘wins’ by achieving is mission.

The ICE Competition Hates Tesla Because They are Now Forced into building EV’s . People Love EV’s More & More Creating a Demand for EV’s As People Realize EV’s are So Much Better than ICE Cars . So…, It’s Not “ICE” Business as Usual Anymore And They Gotta Change Because Of What Tesla Initiated . This Leaves The ICE Giants No Choice , ICE Giants are Building EV’s in Spite of Tesla . They Are Full Of Hate for Tesla Because of This . They Put Down, Pick apart, and Criticize Tesla Every Chance They Get , …………. An Infant Company Is Showing The OLD PRO’s How It’s Done !

I’d upvote this comment if it wasn’t for the annoying pointless capitalisation.

I don’t know that we can predict who will be the leader in electric cars 5 years from now. But, I do agree that if the big boys wake up and decide they want to own the EV space, they will. We’re talking about real manufacturing behemoths. Tesla would have no chance and would become a niche EV player.

Will that happen? Who knows. But, it looks like the German bear has been poked and is beginning to wake.

They’d have to wake up real fast though, to scale production faster then Tesla does. So far, the announcements made even by the most optimistic of legacy makers do not seem to suggest that…

VW will beat Tesla? That’s a good one. The only way that could happen is if Tesla goes out of business.

with the big model 3 backlog, that seem impossible for now.

Lol, PA consulting?
Where are they based?
Who hired them for the study?
What conclusions might they gave been paid to reach?

Volvo’s global sales in 2017 we’re only 571K, as far as I know they have no pure BEVs and very limited PHEV sales today. Can’t see how they are sitting at 6th today and would be positioned to be 5th in 2021. Guess I just don’t understand the European market well enough….

Actually they have pretty strong PHEV sales. In many of the PHEV-heavy markets in parts of Europe, they are among the top players.

Of course, like most PHEV variants of ICE models, they are just out for incentives, and aren’t very convincing as actual EVs…

Musk wants to be called the Battery Guy, not car guy. Who ever makes the better battery and can produce them on a massive scale in a gigafactory will do well. Most of the other car manufacturers are depending on an outside party to make their batteries.

Agree but I would also add Autopilot + FSD. I Think these will be the key differentiators between brands. More than half of Tesla’s engineers are SW engineers and German and Japanese aren’t really that great at SW so I’d say Tesla is sitting pretty.

None of the legacy makers are good at software, no matter their origin. They are investing in autonomy quite heavily nowadays, though…

Thee is no, like NO way, that eg. Volvo will overtake Tesla within 3 years.

What is this „study“?
Fantasy hour? High tech wanking?

These things always make me laugh. I am supposed to believe that in 3-4 years all these car companies are supposed to go from nearly nothing to market leading EV sales. They might actually sell some, but these Titanic-like behemoths do not turn that quickly. Regardless of their claims, they all fail to regard Tesla’s future products and production capacity. I am certain, that if Tesla released a new Pickup by next summer, that Ford would just curl up and die. I fail to see any indication that these companies are actually deliverying on their exagerated claims. Volkswagen has many new and interesting ideas that are supposed to come, but no until after 2020. Ford like GM thinks that they only need to really worry about selling cars in China.

Summary: – Lots of big talk – no production to show for it – Telsa will not stand still for the next three to four years,

Amazing if they could pull it off but new report shows 30% profitibility on Model 3. Betting against Tesla would be like betting against Apple and for Blackberry.

That’s easy to predict because Tesla will cease to exist in about a year.

If it is true Tesla is losing money on every Model 3, how can they stay in business?

Yeah, if it was true… But it isn’t.