US: Order Backlog For Tesla Model Y LR Is Full For 2021

Estimated delivery time (new orders) for base versions of all Tesla cars in the U.S. is now 2022.

By: Mark Kane

Aug 16, 2021 at 7:04am ET

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The Long Range version of the Tesla Model Y recently has joined the Model 3 SR+, Model S, and Model X with an estimated delivery time (for new orders in the U.S.) in 2022.

The Model Y Long Range is now expected in January 2022, just like the Model 3 Standard Range Plus. Both the Model S and Model X Long Range versions are also expected in 2022.

It means that the order backlog for base versions of all Tesla cars in the U.S. is full by the end of 2021. As we are in the middle of August 2021, the order backlog is 4.5+ months long.

Model S/Model X Plaid versions ordered today are also expected in 2022, but the customers still have an option to get the Model 3 Long Range (in November) and Model 3/Model Y Performance versions in 2021.

The Model 3/Model Y Performance is actually available within several weeks, which suggest that Tesla allocated some reserve for those more expensive and higher-margin versions. Those were also the cars that haven't experienced repeated price increases earlier this year.

Estimated delivery time (new orders):

Tesla Model 3:

Standard Range Plus: January 2022 (previously 8–14 weeks)
Long Range: November (no change)
Performance: 5–7 weeks (previously 4–7 weeks)

Tesla Model S:

Long Range: March–April, 2022 (no change)
Plaid: January–February, 2022 (no change)

Tesla Model X:

Long Range: March–April, 2022 (no change)
Plaid: March–April, 2022 (no change)

Tesla Model Y:

Long Range: January 2022 (previously December)
Performance: 5–7 weeks (no change)

The changes of estimated delivery dates to 2022 indicate a much higher demand than supply, but it's impossible to know whether the supply is seriously affected by the production constraints (semiconductor shortage or other bottlenecks) or is mostly demand related.

What do you think?

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It appears that at this point of the year, Tesla can focus on the year 2022 as everything that leaves the production lines will be sold anyway.

The two upcoming products—Semi and Cybertruck—are also expected in 2022. The Semi was officially postponed to 2022 in July, and a similar fate for the Tesla Cybertruck was quietly announced in August.