The 12-month rolling average as of the end of Q1 was at roughly 600,000 EVs annually.

The first quarter of 2021 was Tesla's best quarter ever - both in terms of EV production and delivery volume. The final sales numbers are in line with the preliminary numbers (the production numbers have not changed).

Let's take a look at the details and then check out the outlook.

Quarterly results

  • Total production: 180,338 (up 75.6% year-over-year)
    • Model 3/Y production: 180,338 (up 107% year-over-year)
    • Model S/X production: 0 (down 100% year-over-year)
  • Total deliveries: 184,877 (up 109% year-over-year)
    • Model 3/Y deliveries: 182,847 (up 140% year-over-year)
    • Model S/X deliveries: 2,030 (down 83% year-over-year)
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As we can see in Tesla's official report, despite the production being at an all-time high, the global vehicle inventory (days of supply) is actually at a very low level of just 8 days! That's lower than in the previous periods and a clear sign that there is tremendous demand for Tesla cars.

Tesla Model S/X/3/Y Deliveries (quarterly) – through Q1 2021

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Another look:

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The 12-month rolling deliveries are now at almost 600,000:

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Deliveries by model

Sales of 3/Y increased by 140% year-over-year, and according to Tesla's report, the Model 3 is the top in its segment, while the Model Y is poised to be the best selling car of any kind at some point in the future.

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The Model S/X deliveries only include the outgoing version as production of the new, refreshed S/X was at 0. According to Tesla, "First deliveries of the new Model S should start very shortly."

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Forecast

Tesla expects that the long-term average annual growth of vehicle deliveries will be at around 50%:

"We plan to grow our manufacturing capacity as quickly as possible. Over a multi-year horizon, we expect to achieve 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries. In some years we may grow faster, which we expect to be the case in 2021. The rate of growth will depend on our equipment capacity, operational efficiency and capacity and stability of the supply chain."

Taking into consideration the record Q1 2021 results as well as a very low vehicle inventory (days of supply), we guess that the year 2021 will bring a significantly higher growth rate than the long-term 50% average.

The company should be able to not only exceed 800,000 units in 2021 (roughly four times the Q1 result), but maybe even reach 1,000,000. That would be the first time in history when a single brand sold 1 million all-electric cars in a year.

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