Tesla To Increase EV Sales By 50% A Year On Average, More In 2021

In 2021 sales are expected to grow faster than 50% year-over-year, so we guess that at least 800,000 sales are expected this year.

By: Mark Kane

Jan 28, 2021 at 8:39am ET

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Q4 2020 was Tesla's best quarter in terms of electric car production and deliveries by a huge margin, allowing it to close the year 2020 with half a million units sold.

As usual, the final delivery numbers are slightly higher than the preliminary numbers (the production numbers have not changed).

Let's take a look at the results in Q4 2020 and 2020, before we jump into the forecast for 2021.

Results (quarterly and year-to-date)

Production

Total: 179,757 (up 71% year-over-year) and 509,737 YTD (up 40%)
- Model 3/Y: 163,660 (up 88%) and 454,932 YTD (up 50%)
- Model S/X: 16,097 (up 10%) and 54,805 YTD (down 13%)

Deliveries

Total: 180,667 (up 61% year-over-year) 499,647 YTD (up 36%)
- Model 3/Y: 161,701 (up 75%) and 442,562 YTD (up 47%)
- Model S/X: 18,966 (down 3%) and 57,085 YTD (down 15%)

Tesla Model S/X/3/Y Deliveries (quarterly) – through Q4 2020

The 12-month rolling deliveries are now at almost 500,000.

Deliveries by model

Sales of 3/Y grew significantly, although S/X still slides down (it might change, thanks to the recently announced S/X refresh).

Forecast

Tesla announced that it simplifies its approach to guidance for 2021. The only number is the long-term average annual growth of vehicle deliveries of 50%.

"We are planning to grow our manufacturing capacity as quickly as possible. Over a multi-year horizon, we expect to achieve 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries. In some years we may grow faster, which we expect to be the case in 2021. The rate of growth will depend on our equipment capacity, operational efficiency and capacity and stability of the supply chain."

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Assuming almost 500,000 in 2020, the base case scenario for 2021 would be 750,000. Then it should increase to 1.125 million in 2022, close to 1.7 million in 2023 and 2.5 million in 2024.

Because 2021 is expected to be better than average, it might be somewhere between 800,000 and 1,000,000, we guess.