With over 6 months of time still, March 2020 sounds reasonable.
According to Teslas in Shanghai, the customer deliveries of the Shanghai-built Tesla Model 3 ordered today are now expected in March 2020.
Tesla recently showed its pre-production Model 3, assembled at the Gigafactory 3. While it is a tremendous achievement, taking into consideration that there was no sign of a plant on the plot nine months ago, real production is still a ways off.
The series production of customer cars should start in late 2019.
"Current Shanghai built Model 3s have estimated delivery in March 2020. The order book is is growing fast."
Currently, Tesla accepts orders for the base Model 3 from GF3 at around 10% lower price than from California.
If the rumors about the price increase are true (due to weaker yuan and later because of upcoming higher import duty), the difference might increase to 20% or more we guess. Having a plant in China will help Tesla to offer affordable electric cars in challenging conditions.
Tesla offer in China:
- Standard Range Plus (RWD) made-in-China - ¥328,000 (≈$45,866)
- Standard Range Plus (RWD made-in-USA - ¥363,900 (≈$50,886)
- Long Range (AWD) - ¥439,900 (≈$61,513)
- Performance Long Range (AWD) - ¥509,900 (≈$71,302)