Musk Tweets – Tesla Production Hits 7,000 In 7 Days, Model 3 Reaches 5,000

AWD Tesla Model 3 being built in a tent

JUL 1 2018 BY ERIC LOVEDAY 139

The ramp is real folks.

And the shorts should take notice.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk just took to Twitter moments ago to let the world know that the automaker had achieved two production records.

  • 7,000 in 7 days
  • 5,000 Model 3 in a week

This doesn’t suggest that Tesla will continue at a pace of 5,000 Model 3s per week though. Special circumstances existed to make this achievement possible.

Word has it that it was all hands on deck to make this possible. Additional employees were called in, called back, transferred to the factory from the headquarters, pulled in from SolarCity and so on. Basically, Tesla pushed itself to its very limit to achieve this feat, so don’t expect it to be repeated in the next 7 days too.

The 7,000 in 7 days referred to by Musk is combined production of the Model S, Model X and Model 3.

Separately, the 5,000 in a week run-rate for the Model 3 was confirmed by a Tweet (the original has since been deleted and the user account erased).

That surely calls for a celebration for the Tesla team.

It’s taken quite awhile for Tesla to increase production of the Model 3, but now it seems the automaker continually ups the output month after month by a rather significant amount, meaning 10,000 per week might not be that far off.

Looking forward, InsideEVs will report on sales, including those of the Model 3 and the Model S and X, in just a few days. Surely this will be an interesting sales report this time around. The production hits a record high, but will sales peak too?

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139 Comments on "Musk Tweets – Tesla Production Hits 7,000 In 7 Days, Model 3 Reaches 5,000"

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John

Right on! Congrats Tesla, keep hitting your goals, the majority of folks are behind you 100%!

Terawatt

What is actually the point of doing this? Clearly when Musk said the goal was to achieve a production rate of 5000 per week by the end of June, he was talking about the REAL capability of Tesla to mass manufacture the Model 3. It isn’t really relevant what they can do for a single week by pulling out all the stops – what is relevant is what Tesla can do week after week, month after month, without measures that are only possible to maintain a short time.

If you think about it, what this story actually means is that Tesla once again failed to meet their actual target. By how much we can’t know. We only know Tesla doesn’t want us to know.

I hate dishonest smoke and mirrors shows. Really want Tesla to succeed with the ramp up. And not even blaming them for needing time to do so. But I really hate the deceitful, snake-oil tactics they employ.

This is the final straw for me. I’m getting the KONA.

Edinho

Sorry. That’s not correct. A goal is a goal. Achieving 5k in 1 Week, even if Tesla cannot achieve in the next week, will make things easier to more ramp up. It’s will allow knowledge e motivational strengh too.

magama52

Yes, the KONA makes a lot of sense. Fully loaded gas KONA is $29680 (web site) the EV model est. at $39000. $10000. more for same car if first time EV built has no growing pains.

This is one of the problems all this manufactures have, Tesla is not their main competitor across the street, is their same gas models parked next to the EV’s for a lot less money. To a regular customer it makes no sense to pay more and the salesperson and dealer is happy to make the sale that has more commission on it and a lot more maintenance income coming to the dealer’s shop.

Vexar

Correct that to “it makes no sense to a regular, American customer.” I don’t care what brand BEV you’ve bought, You are saving $1500-$2500 a year in petrol and fluid costs, and transmissions, plus brake wear is reduced. TCO means nothing to the typical, American buyer. What’s the dealer lie? “$10,000 sure buys a lot of gas.” At this point, my comment would end nicely with Mister G.’s signature line.

magama52

“$10,000 sure buys a lot of gas. Great line!!! Forgot about that one, probably car sales first line in class 101 sales course. Thats why education on BEV’s is so important to the general public from us, cause these car companies and dealers especially, are sure not going to on all the benefits.

Counterpoint

Based on 15,000 miles driven a year for 12 years, average comparison fuel economy of 27 mpg for the gas car and reported electric efficiency of the Tesla Model 3 of 237 Wh/mi, as well as 2.75/gal gas price and 10.54 cents/kWh electric price, the break-even price difference is more like $13,000-14,000. But there definitely IS a price difference at which it does not make economic sense to buy an electric car. Someone who is looking at a $25,000 Camry is not going to be better off in any way economically if they buy a $40,000 Bolt or $50,000 Model 3. Although they’re getting more affordable, 200+ mile range electric cars are still for the rich right now.

xm

Buyer’s of Tesla’s are coming out of BMW, MB and Audi’s, and their fuel economy, if they ever check is more like 13 mpg. Because they use the accelerator and burn more gas than the fleet average driver of a Camry. I doubt even in the real world if Camry drivers are getting 27 mpg, probably real world 21 mpg.

xm

If a Camry get’s EPA 27, that’s the top end of the bell curve. And requires very moderate driving to hit that number.

SparkEV BoltEV

Only the stupid compare gasser MSRP to EV MSRP. With gov’t subsidy, that $40K Bolt is actually $30K in CA. With “typical” sale price of about $34K from trucar, Bolt can be had for about $24K after subsidy. With good sale price of $30K (current best sale price that includes CA rebate), Bolt can be as low as $22.5K.

Dan F.

In the SF bay area (where I live and EVs, PHEVs, and other “greenish” cars are popular) the cheapest (for now) is about $.13/kwh with time of use metering charging 11 pm to 7 am at home. Then you pay +/- $.40/kwh during the daytime peak if you have time of use.

Charging at home with standard (tiered price) service you will pay $.30 to $.40 per kwh. Supercharger costs +$.20/kwh and other charging stations are higher (up to $.50/kwh) if you do the arithmetic. Their prices are opaque because they mostly charge NOT by $/kwh delivered but by the amount of time you are connected and the real charging rate varies and is rarely, if ever, as high as the nominal capacity of the charger.

Prsnep

You are speculating here. Let us not get carried away.

Steve Townsend

$10,000 buys a lot of buggy whips, too.

Dan F.

Electricity is NOT FREE. Savings depend on what electricity costs you and what gas car was the alternative.

Benz

Why would you care if Tesla does or does not produce 5,000 copies of the Tesla Model 3 per week?

You should only be interested in them producing and delivering YOUR Tesla Model 3 (in case you would have reserved/ordered a Tesla Model 3), right?

Anyway, a Hyundai Kona EV is a good choise as well.

Why not a Chevrolet Bolt EV?

Ed

Lol so in protest at Tesla having made 5000 model 3s in a week, you decide to get a car that Hyundai have announced they aim to produce 18,600 of this year. Perhaps there is some logic there but I fail to see it.

Benz

Perhaps you just might want to wait another month or two before actually ordering that Hyundai Kona EV, because Tesla might well be able to achieve that 5,000 per week production rate on a sustainable basis sometime in Q3 2018.

John

Or, you’ve waited this long, just wait a little longer and get a Tesla. Take it from me, you will want the Tesla.

Or don’t take it from me and don’t buy a Tesla. Either way, it doesn’t matter to folks like me who are super-stoked to drive a Tesla.

Prad Bitt

I’d bet he never intended to buy a Tesla.

Elooney Muskey

Well said Terawatt!
* The quality will be worse than what it was already. Using anyone and everyone with no basic training and taking short cuts, just to meet this bogus 5k/week is going to cost a lot for customers and for Tesla. Think “expensive, hasty steps”. If Elon was planning for these for 2 years, why fly in equipment so late?
* This email could be another lie. When the guy setting the goal is also the judge, anything is possible.
* Unclear what state these are coming out. Lots of Model 3 quality issues when Tesla had 10% more workers and was producing at 1000 cars a week. What can we expect for the quality of last week’s production?
* Don’t forget the worker exploitation in that greenhouse tent when outside temps are at 90+ degrees.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Gee, Terrawatt earned an “attaboy” from a serial Tesla basher.

Isn’t that special.

Viking79

My guess is you have to wait longer for a Kona EV in the US than a Model 3. The Model 3 has more cars made in a week than Hyundai/Kia imports BEVs all year.

Robert Weekley

Who ARE You? What Factory have You worked in that had no hard goals?

If they made 5,000, they made 5,000! If it takes them until end of July to do it without extra help, so be it! Not a real problem!

Why not buy that Kina EV now, and still help Elon with his goal to make All Transportation non ICE?😀

Pushmi-Pullyu

But they won’t do it again as soon as the end of July. Maybe, just maybe, by the end of August, but I certainly wouldn’t hold my breath about that either. Transferring workers from HQ and from SolarCity to act as temp workers on the production line, just so Elon can tout that “magic” 5000/week number… now that is absurd.

It hasn’t been that long ago that Elon suggested that Tesla would be moving more towards steady production, suggesting the company would be abandoning this fits-and-starts, binging-and-purging approach to production.

Instead, it appears the binging and the purging has only gotten worse. 🙁

antrik

How do you know when they will reach sustained 5000/week?

Just_Chris

I don’t think what Tesla are doing is dishonest. What they are demonstrating is the capacity of their current manufacturing facilities. This shows what they can do but they can’t maintain it because their suppliers can’t keep up and because they don’t have enough staff. This behaviour is perfectly normal for manufacturers who are rapidly expanding. The M3 parts and raw materials suppliers now have advanced warning and some level of confidence that Tesla are ready to up production. This is a milestone nothing more. If you want to know how many cars Tesla will make next month it is fairly meaningless.

Enthusiast

This is not true. It is not normal practice to bring in assemblers from other facilities and do an all out push to meet silly timeline. The only reason Tesla felt the need to do this is because Elon is always guaranteeing things he has no need to guarantee. Companies that actually know how to manufacture actually care about sustainable rates at projected/planned costs. Assembly line headcount is an important factor of that so throwing a bunch of additional heads into the process doesn’t tell you anything meaningful. Auto station capacity is easy to calculate and verify without doing this. Now if the wanted to see if they could hit an uptime goal during an accelerated run that might have some merit but I highly doubt that was the goal.

Dan F.

If sales of the Ioniq EV tell us anything, don’t hold your breath on the Kona. Plus you may need to live in L.A. to buy one when they do become available.

Dave_the_braver

Congrats Tesla!

Pushmi-Pullyu

Go Tesla!

TSLA shorters lost ~$2 billion in June alone. I wonder how much they’ll lose in July?
😀 😀 😀

* * * * *

“Word has it that it was all hands on deck to make this possible. Additional employees were called in, called back, transferred… Basically, Tesla pushed itself to its very limit to achieve this feat, so don’t expect it to be repeated in the next 7 days too.”

Yeah, the discrepancy between Tesla demonstrating what it can achieve over a very few days by pulling out all the stops, at the end of a quarter, vs. what they actually do achieve per week in the month following, is perhaps growing greater every time. And thus what Elon or Tesla claims about its short-term run rate is less and less meaningful. 🙁

It’s becoming more of a stunt than an actual achievement.

Magnus H

“It’s becoming more of a stunt than an actual achievement.” Sometimes, but not often, I agree with you. I expect it will take some time before thay are up to 20K in a single month.

TeslaPlease

Had Tesla achieved a stabilized steady state of Model 3 production of 4200/week on average over the quarter, the unquestioned praise would be warranted.

Tesla’s (Elon’s) tactics warrant an asterisk and ask for supporting data for the numbers he has tweeted. The financial folks see this ruse for what it is and I suspect will discount his claims appropriately. He has all his senior leadership on NDA and staff are threatened with termination for speaking about negative news.

Got a story that help lifts the stock price? Leak it to electrek.

Nix

BishPlease — You mean how Elon “leaked” it to electrek via a very public twitter post? LOL!!!

But why wouldn’t Tesla break good Tesla news to electrek first? It is like GM, Chrysler, and Ford stories appearing first on Detroit News. Why wouldn’t the news go to where the readers are?

You act like there is some obligation to put out all news through official press release. There isn’t. Staged “leaked” so-called “spy photos” happen all the time from the major car makers.

Electrek’s readership is HEAVILY Tesla-focused. The same way the Detroit News is heavily focused on Ford, Chrysler, and GM, and everything else is stuck under “foreign”. If some other website wants to out-Tesla electrek, they certainly can try to appeal to elektrek’s audience and try to win them over if they want in order to win Tesla story scoops. It is a free world.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Yup. Once again, Tesla bashers are trying to portray something which is normal for the auto industry — heck, in this case normal for just about every organization — as somehow being strange or bad just because Tesla is doing it.

Yeah, when Tesla wants to leak good news, they do it to a friendly media outlet (like Evannex)… just like every other organization does. Why wouldn’t they? Does anyone honestly think that a company would go out of its way to seek out a hostile news outlet to leak good news?

Sometimes it’s downright weird what kind of bull pucky Tesla bashers seem to think people will swallow!
🙄

Terawatt

Yes. And Tesla’s dishonest snake oil tactics have bothered me for a while. Also the complete lack of any skeptical criticism in this blog in stories like this one. It’s pointed out that the tweet and the headline doesn’t mean Tesla can produce at this rate (leaving us to winder what it *does* mean) which is better than if they didn’t, but really the story should be about what the state of affairs actually is more than what Musk tweets, especially since what he tweets is designed to convey a completely misleading impression. Why else should Tesla use SpaceX folk to build Model 3, if it is not to *seem* to reach their much publicised goal of 5000/week?

The real story here is Tesla again failed to meet their own target, and didn’t want anyone to know by how much.

Sharpe

Tesla met its goal and made it brilliantly. I understand your epic suffering but have no pity. Shorts and skeptics were warned.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“Yes… the complete lack of any skeptical criticism in this blog in stories like this one. It’s pointed out that the tweet and the headline doesn’t mean Tesla can produce at this rate…”

1. Dude, don’t twist my words while pretending to agree with me. That’s not what I said.

2. This article’s 3rd and 4th paragraphs are entirely about “skeptical criticism” of the 5000/week claim, so your complaint here isn’t merely biased, it’s factually incorrect.

3. This website is not a blog. Look up the definition of the word “blog” if you don’t actually know what it means. A blog, like a diary or a first-person narrative, is written from a single person’s viewpoint. (#GrammarNazi)

antrik

Where did you read anything about SpaceX employees?

Vexar

They have to deliver on what they promised they said they would do before their shareholders, and this is what they did. The Sprung-built GA4 did double their production rate from last quarter. We know they are getting incremental improvements in their run rates every time there’s a shutdown. All they have to do to double again is repeat this configuration with the same labor quality in their Germany factory. Considering BMW & the VW Group have said they are shedding workers due to the introduction of EVs into their own future viability, let’s hope that the same folks find themselves working for an American (OK, South-African) boss before the snow falls.

My theory is that they can sustain 4400 a week on Model III production with assigned staff right now.

Pushmi-Pullyu

A very reasoned and thoughtful response to my comment, thanks!

4400 a week? Well, I personally would guess closer to 4000 or even a bit less, but let’s hope you’re right!

pjwood1

Over making even, say, 750 in a day, 5,000 in a week is a sign that this steady scale isn’t far away.

antrik

Actually, a huge discrepancy between Q1 exit rate -> Q2 steady rate has been mostly avoided, unlike Q4 -> Q1 — so the trend at least seems positive.

Benz

Tesla Model 3 deliveries in the second half of 2018 will increase substantially.

Maybe even reaching an annual total of 120,000 in 2018?

That would be awesome.

Terawatt

Apparently not. 5000 per week average for the second half yields 130k (26 weeks), but it seems they are pretty far off still. Far enough to pull this BS rather than reveal what their real production capability currently is, anyway.

I actually fell for the smoke show once again and thought they would manage 5000 by the end of H1. In no way was I certain, and by now I know not to trust anything they say. But the growth seemed to be good in the quartetly average numbers, which are harder to manipulate than a single week.

I won’t do any business with these scoundrels. Sure the incumbent car companies, like most corporations, aren’t exactly inspiring. But compared to Tesla they are incredibly honest and reliable.

Benz

120,000 in 2018 may indeed be a bit too optimistic.

Does 100,000 in 2018 sound more realistic to you?

Sharpe

Tesla will make 250 000+ cars this year. More than Porsche. Model 3 will be in top-10 bestselling cars list in the USA.

Benz

The numbers that I mentioned (120,000 and 100,000) are for just the Tesla Model 3.

That total of 250,000 probably is the total of S+X+3, right?

Might that just be a very optimistic scenario? Maybe just a bit too optimistic?

Sharpe

Yes, 250K is for all three Tesla models. And this is very realistic scenario.

Benz

It will be awesome if they can manage to produce and deliver that many cars in 2018. That will be an extremely good Q3 and Q4. Much to look forward to. Anyway, we will see what happens.

Dave Martin

Made me laugh. Honest like the German Diesel auto manufacturers?

Mister G

VW has hit a low point and are out of ideas lol VW’s latest advertising campaign is interior lighting that changes colors LOL CONNECT THE DOTS ON CLEAN AIR WAKE UP FOLKS thanks co2.earth

arne-nl

Dunno, but did you read Benz’s comment correctly? He was talking about 120 k for the whole year. They’ve built ~40 k in the first half and only need 80k in the second half. That’s an average of ~3k/week. Very likely to happen.

Don Zenga

Congratulations Team Tesla.

So 7,000 in 7 days means 5,000 in 5 work days and for Model-3.
5,000 in 7 days translates to roughly 700 / day which is 3,500 / work week. It’s great.

They don’t need to work 7 days/week from now on. Just 5 days / week will do. This will help them in churning out many vehicles to achieve the profitability.

Next news to look for is the sales.

Terawatt

Gee I wonder why Tesla’s weekly average over a quarter is always much lower than the previous peak production in a week..?

I don’t even mind their inability to ramp up fast. It may well be for very good reasons. Manufacturers usually take a while to ramp up, and it’s often the second model year that really gets going (and has the chinks worked out, e.g. suspension tuning). What I cannot stand and is now so fed up with that I no longer want a Tesla is the disrespect for honesty and decency, the snake oil tactics, the constant deception, the lack of transparency, and the stream of BS emanating from Musk. In a way he is the opposite of Trump (intelligence, knowledge, sophistication), but in MORAL terms they are equivalent. Whatever works best for themselves is their mantra. I won’t be a part of it.

Pushmi-Pullyu

You are of course entitled to your opinions, Terrawatt, but your attitude that Tesla’s hype is actually more important than its very real accomplishments has never, ever made any sense to me.

antrik

“Gee I wonder why Tesla’s weekly average over a quarter is always much lower than the previous peak production in a week..?”

Except it isn’t. Q1 exit rate: 2020 per week; Q2 average: 2380 per week. Oops.

I think the 7 day week is also for the Model 3 to reach 5,000. Which is about 714 for a 24 hour production day(2 twelve hour shifts) for Model 3. About 121 seconds for each Model 3. I am also wondering how they intend to reach 10,000 weekly unless they create a separate production line and hire additional staff, or the line will need to move a bit faster. More like a Model 3 every 60 seconds still running two 12 hour shifts. When Ford talks about producing a new F-150 ever 53 seconds with two 8 hour shifts, that’s about 1,086 units within 16 hours. The biggest difference between the two is that Tesla has to build highly complex battery packs for each vehicle, while Ford just has to bolt on a fuel tank. Even though the F-150 has thousands of more parts to install than the Model 3, the Model 3 has more technology to install. Then there is the fact that Ford has more than 100 years of experience building cars on a production line, while Tesla has about 7 years. So with a 93-year head start, Ford has little to boast about. But the response… Read more »
HH
“The biggest difference between the two is that Tesla has to build highly complex battery packs for each vehicle, while Ford just has to bolt on a fuel tank.” I still remember reading a while back (before the Tesla ramp problems) that EVs would crush ICE because they are so much easier to manufacture given that a battery + electric motor is so much easier than an ICE. And of course that statement is still true. A battery + electric motors *is* much simpler than an ICE. In order to Ford to produce one F-150 every 53 seconds, they also have to build one ICE for the F-150 every 53 seconds. They seem to be managing that just fine. The battery Tesla puts in isn’t more complex. There are other issues around batteries, sure, but production complexity isn’t one of them. Overall, I just find it a bit funny that something that was originally touted as an *advantage* for Tesla, is now used as an excuse for a lower production rate. And Tesla has 10+ years of production experience for battery packs. In today’s fast moving times, this certainly should be enough. Doesn’t matter if Ford has 10 years experience… Read more »
Will

Putting my $1000 down towards the reservation this week. I didn’t want lose money if early hell flounder the company and lose my money

GE

I just configured my Blue Model 3 Long Range on Friday. Delivery is projected between 9/19-11/19 here in Maryland. My reservation was made in mid-December ’16.

GE

I meant 9/18 – 11/18.

Terawatt

> This doesn’t suggest that Tesla will continue at a pace of 5,000 Model 3s per week though

Well, then what’s the big deal?!?

Why is it that Musk always gives everyone little tidbits that sound good, but never gives the
ACTUALLY RELEVANT information..? Except for the absolute minimum that is required by law. And why is it you give headlines like this to such soundbites, adding caveats like this?

On Tuesday we get the June production/ delivery numbers. I’m guessing they’ve managed maybe 2,500/week – about 10,700 for the month. That’s a step forward. Hurrah. But it’s 2500, not 5000, regardless what the peak was.

If Tesla didn’t do anything special to achieve misleading, short-term unsustainable gains, the peaks would actually be relevant, because 5000 in one week now would mean we should expect more next month, not less. If the average turns out as low as I’m guessing, only half of the peak, THAT ought to be the headline.

Doggydogworld

We won’t get June production numbers. Tesla will release Q2 production and delivery numbers. InsideEVs will estimate June sales.

This is a milestone so congrats to the workers who made it happen. It buys them time to fix the underlying problems with the automated assembly lines.

Djoni

Did you just wake up in the real world Tera?

In every news, speech, article, comment, there’s alway’s 90-95% bias or more, so don’t expect anyone to tell you everything you want to know.
You need to listen to many, many source and one or more that you don’t appreciate to have a seemingfull opinion about what is going on.

Just saying!

Still happy that Tesla did those number, and I’m happy that you choose a Kona, because it look like a good choice.
But how much will you have to wait to get it?

Sharpe

Kona EV is a nice car, but Tesla makes more Models 3 in a single month than Hyundai will make Konas in 2018.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Did you just wake up in the real world Tera?

No, I’m pretty sure he’s still firmly inside his bubble, constantly outraged that not everything that gets done is being done exactly as it would if he was in charge.
🙄

Darth

All companies only report what is required by law. To be more transparent would be a competitive disadvantage. No one wants to give their competitors any more information than they have to.

I don’t see tesla behaving any worse than any other company. VW? GM? Both lied and deceived customers and governments.

Nix

It does seem very contradictory that so many people complain about Tesla being 2 quarters late on hitting a production goal, when a company like GM has gone every year since 2012 and never hit their 2012 Volt/Ampera production goal of 60K cars/year. You would think that hitting production goals late would be better than never hitting them at all.

Yes, Companies report what they are required by SEC regulations, and then on top of that they report whatever they believe will make their company look competitive to investors and nothing more that they don’t want to report. Which is exactly what they are allowed to do by law.

Nix

No company is actually required under SEC regulations to provide ANY production numbers for any product in any time frame.

Thanks for playing. Enjoy your Kona. Good Day. Bye-bye.

floydboy

For the bashers……RUH ROH!

William

@ floydboy,
Careful with that Axe, Eugene

Garrity

The production numbers are trending upwards. You can extrapolate yourself where they are heading.

What will be interesting is the vehicles in transit number. I happen to live next to a lot that Tesla uses to store their cars and there are multiple reports of other full lots and expected July deliveries I’m assuming it was done to forestall the 200k sold to prolong the tax credit

Nix

Tesla has a planned plateau of 5K/week while they stabilize and re-plan what production line changes are required for 10K/week. Once they study and replan, they will then push higher past 5K.

So production growth this quarter can’t be directly extrapolated to next quarter. That would be overly optimistic.

But yes, the trend line is definitely VERY clear now. So extrapolating this 5K number to the end of the year would be equally inaccurate as applying the same growth rate until the end of the year. That would be too pessimistic. It will be somewhere in between.

floydboy

Now, simply a matter of tweaking and solidifying those gains, then begin moving the ball again. On to the next phase of ‘Operation Burning Shorts’!

William

@ floydboy,

The upcoming meeting, between 20k Boring Co. (not a) flamethrowers, and the pair of flame retardant “Shorts”, that Jim Chanos is currently wearing, should adequately activate the ceiling sprinkler system, in a rapid response!

Benz

Even if it’s only for one week, that is better than not having achieved it at all.

It’s just another step in the right direction.

The weekly production numbers will keep increasing gradually.

And that is good.

Loek

A friend is picking up his M3 tomorrow after confirm on Wednesday night, within five days. Makes me think sales will be very low for June since they were holding back a lot of cars for June. Guessing it is about credits.

Benz

Soon we will learn more about that.

Benz

I think that the Conference Call in August will be very interesting.

I hope that at least one of the analysts will ask Elon Musk during the Conference Call if Tesla was able to produce at least 20,000 Tesla Model 3 cars in July 2018.

Nix

Even if they are anywhere in the upper teens in July it will be a massive victory. If so, I don’t think we will have to wait for someone to ask. It will be towards the top of the investor overview letter that goes out with the earnings filings.

arne-nl

According to the Bloomberg tracker, they produced ~8k in June.

Benz

That may indicate that they might have managed to delay the delivery of the 200,000th Tesla in the US to the first week of July 2018.

ffbj

Congratulations, but to continue production levels at those numbers, which will now be the rallying cry of the shorts, and I suspect they will be doing a lot of that, they are going to need a bigger tent. (That’s a joke son).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTwnwbG9YLE

gagaga

noboby bothers about the one question I am really interested in: what does all this production hell mess mean for the margins? Will Tesla ever be profitable ?
At the end of the day, THATS the question.
My guess: no. They are far too deep in the red, to reach profitability with a relatively cheap model 3.

Sharpe

The Tesla shorts arguments are desperate to the level of absurdity. Model 3 is not cheap, neither relatively nor absolutely.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Bizarre to see this comment get 7 down votes. It’s absolutely correct and very on target.

Anyone who thinks Tesla can’t reach profitability by selling a less expensive car at much higher volumes, knows nothing at all about profitability, or profit margin, or the economy of scale, or volume sales.

Doggydogworld

Even with the extra labor and related costs they can profit at 5000/week selling LR-AWD and Performance versions. They have to get the lines fixed for SR to be profitable, though.

Dave S.

Be careful with number 5,000.
https://youtu.be/kvW_PDkElho

TM

Good they hit 5K per week going full bore, but it will take some work to maintain that number without breaking a sweat or needing execs to sleep on the factory floor.

Look at Bloomberg – they show a fall off in M3 production the following weeks.

They are learning where the bottlenecks are to making 5k/week become easy.

When Musk says something will happen by a certain time, it just means that they are striving for that target, and may or may not hit it. Most of the time they don’t hit it by the target date, but eventually hit it.

Here, they need to actually hit some numbers so they don’t run out of cash, but it looks like they are close enough and that will not be a problem.

TM
Nix

Bloomberg makes it very clear that their methodology isn’t at all designed to be accurate on a week-by-week basis. Their methodology by design is only accurate to estimate a long term total over a number of weeks. They also make it clear that they don’t even try to correct their numbers on a weekly basis, even when they know they are wrong (like when Tesla shut down their factory for a week to upgrade the line.) Instead they allow their algorithm to self-correct over the long-term, even when they know that will mean that individual week’s numbers will be inaccurate.

If you are using Bloomberg’s numbers to try and accurately gauge weekly numbers, you are using the wrong weapon for the job. That would be like using a 12-gauge shotgun to hunt hummingbirds.

Robert Weekley

Humming dust? (After a direct hit)

Pushmi-Pullyu

Humming mist, or humming salsa. (EWWWW!)

Ocean Railroader

If they are making between 5,000 and 7,000 cars a week that is more cars that go to a lot of gas stations in a day.

So if you look at one way enough EV’s are hitting the road in one week to offset the gas use of one gas station.

But if you factor in one car getting 25 miles a gallon and driving for 150,000 miles that would offset 6,000 gallons of future gasoline demand. So times that by 5,000 that is 30,000,000 gallons of future fuel demand a week.

John

Who originally set the goal of 5,000 cars per week? Wasn’t it Tesla? What is the significance of 5,000 cars per week again? An arbitrary number? So if a company sets an arbitrary goal for itself, and doesn’t meet that goal, what does that mean again? Maybe a temporary dip in the stock price?

Kinda like Steph Curry predicting he’s gonna drop 10 threes in a game and only hits 8? Doesn’t really mean much, right?

At the end of the day, Tesla still exists, still makes cars, still moves forward. They evolve, set new goals, deal with production issues, stock issues, lawsuits, failures, successes, bulls, bears, giraffes, elephants, etc. And they move forward. Just like they have since they started..

Robert Weekley

Elon announced that Goal, at the July 28th, 2017 Model 3 Delivery Party, when the delivered the first 28 Model 3’s!

At least one reason, was the $49,000 min current cost x 5,000 per week = $245 Million per week in potential revenue, as those cars are delivered!

That helps generate more revenue than expenses! $64,000 to $78,000 for the Performance Model 3 in Q3, increases that potential quite a bit!

Particularly, as these revenues are added to the More Expensive Model S & Model X, with average prices that might be closer to $125,000 each, x 2,000 = another $250 Million per week!

So, 5,000 Model 3’s produced, plus 2,000 Model S & X, stands to generate them about $500 Million in Revenue per Week, as the cars are sold and delivered!

That makes it easier to overcome their R & D, SG & A, Expenses, AND cover some CAPEX costs needed to buy all those Robots, and get ready to Expand the GF1 to 2/3rds its Final Size, too!

Ron M

Tesla is the clear leader in Electric Vehicle Production and sales in the US. Tesla will probably be the leader in Electric Vehicle production and sales in the world by the end of the year.

yo

I don’t think Tesla is going to make it to num1 in sales worldwide…
BAIC sold 24,000 of their EC series last month and 28,000 total BEVs with new models just coming out and sales of them increasing too…
BYD also and finally has their new models with new batteries coming out too…

Bestsellingcarsblog.com/2018/06/china-may-2018-new-energy-13-chinese-models-in-top-15/

antrik

That was probably a one-time peak though: for some reason, apparently they sold off a lot of cars that had been delivered to dealerships over the past months… Wholesale number for May was “only” 12,600 EC-Series. ( http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2018/06/china-may-2018.html )

Robert

Great and all my best to the company and man that have changed the automotive landscape and will make our cities cleaner.

The number is, by the way, hugely more than the total capacity of VW group in producing plugin hybrids.

Don Zenga

Whatever the deniers would like to say, mainstream media now says that ‘Tesla has met the target’
Let see what the wall street has to say tomorrow.

Yes, they may will hit 5,000 this week because of Independence Day Holiday.
Happy Independence Day folks, celebrate the Freedom from Oil also for Tesla’s sake.

From next week, they may reduce to 6 days / week from 7 days.
Don’t crib, because this is the norm in Japan/Korea even now.

Shaun

There might be a better chance of Tesla sustaining this rate than previous quarters. A report from Reuters this week claimed they weren’t yet close to the daily production numbers at the middle of the week to reach 5k. If true, that means that the bulk of that 5k was produced very late in the week and the daily production numbers far exceeded what was needed for the goal, so a steady daily production dialed back from that could equal the around 700 per day needed to make 5k per week. We shall see in the coming weeks if this is the case.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Or maybe it means that the report from Reuters you reference was written by someone who is entirely clueless about Tesla. Sadly, that seems to be pretty commonplace in stories published outside the EV community.

Shaun

The story had Freemont employees as a source.

ffbj

Edmunds compares the Bolt, the Leaf, and the Model 3:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Er1eM4cRO8

Btw, to whom it may concern. It’s comparable not compairable. Arghh. Like par in Golf not pair, as in get a…

MM

Since when has “they can’t make them fast enough” been a bad thing?

Pushmi-Pullyu

Since Tesla bashing by FUDsters became “a thing”.

Nix

This upcoming week is a holiday week. It wouldn’t be realistic to expect Tesla to hit the same number during a holiday week as this week.

bro1999

Hey, congrats Elon! I didn’t think Tesla could do it. Though of course corners were cut to finally hit a goal on time. 300 fewer welds per car certainly helps speed up production.
https://www.theverge.com/2018/6/30/17520832/tesla-model-3-manufacturing-changes-tent-robots-welds

Nix

LOL!! Concern troll is So Concerned!! with Tesla initially OVER welding, and then eliminating redundant welds as they fine tune production.

Sadly, you are too ignorant to know that eliminating redundant welds as products mature is STANDARD for the automotive industry, and has been part of tightening up robotic welding in automotive manufacturing for two decades.

GM actually was at the forefront of reducing redundant welds by leveraging NDT/NDE and welding robots dating back to the early 1990’s. But I’m sure when GM reduces redundant welds for decades you have nothing to say. Only when Tesla does it do you get So Concerned!! Oh my!!

antrik

FWIW, the NYT article this is based on ( https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/30/business/tesla-factory-musk.html ) had this to say:

“It’s unusual to be doing that at this point in time when the car is already launched,” said Mr. Harbour, a veteran manufacturing expert who has visited most of the world’s major auto plants. “Normally you’d make changes like that in the prototype stage.”

Nix

All you have done is confirm that it is normal and customary for every company to eliminate redundant welds, and it has nothing to do with “cutting corners” like bro8008 claimed.

antrik

Yes and no. According to this article, it is perfectly normal to do this sort of thing, but only in pre-production… Doing it during normal production is apparently highly unusual.

I’m not saying it’s a bad thing, though 🙂

Sharpe

300 less weld points are not worse, and 300 more weld points would be not better. Welding optimization is normal.

Recoil

Hey bro we get that your mad they achieved another milestone and the fact once they get that going at a steady rate they will make as many model 3 in three weeks as the bolt will sell in an entire year.

Shaun

I can’t believe this site actually employs you as a writer. What a joke lol.

Dave Martin

Good job, Tesla! Now the analysts can start arguing about this statement from the email Elon sent to Tesla employees: “What’s more, with the widespread productivity gains throughout Tesla and the new production lines spooling up, we are on track to reach 6K/week for Model 3 next month.”

Scott Franco

That production is “intense”. Sorry, just had to.

Benz

The situation at the Tesla factory is that it’s very much jammed.

That makes me think.

Wouldn’t it have been better if Tesla would have had decided (when they were still busy designing the Tesla Model 3) to produce the Tesla Model 3 at a completely new factory?

Possibly a completely new factory near the Gigafactory in Nevada?

Years ago they already knew that they would have to be producing the Tesla Model 3 at a rate of 10,000 per week.

A jammed situation is not preferable when you want to do mass production. To NOT be factory space limited is very important. On the contrary, having extra (unused) free space right next to the factory is very important, in case you would want to expand the production capacity in the (near) future.

I’m glad that they will be doing it all differently when they will start production of the Tesla Model Y.

Decisions always have implications in the (near) future.

Doggydogworld

They’re jammed because they had to add two new general assembly lines they never planned on needing.

Benz

I suggest that you read my post again.

Another Euro point of view

As always with Musk it is a bit hard to filter the exact relevant information. He had no choice but to announce that otherwise a further downgrade of Tesla bonds by Moody’s would have been very likely and that Tesla can’t afford. Now even if steady rate is only 3’500 cars per week that is still a lot of EVs per month, combined with Model S & X more than any other EV manufacturer and that’s what matters at the end of the day. What will really matter is the number of Model 3 that will be sold in July now that they are not limited by the 200k number. My guess is 12k-15k range.

bro1999

Seems pretty clear Tesla was sandbagging deliveries in June so they did not eclipse the 200k barrier till July, where they will have full 6 months before the $7,500 tax credit starts phasing out.
Also seems clear GM is doing a similar thing with their EVs, as Volt and Bolt production has been pretty modest so far this year, with production for other markets (like South Korea) being cranked out. GM probably wants to keep the credit alive until next January, when they will likely unveil some of their next gen BEVs. I’m also pretty sure lots of work is going on behind the scenes by GM and others to try and get the credit extended/renewed.

Doggydogworld

Moody’s ratting doesn’t matter much at this point since they can’t sell bonds right now anyway. They need 5000/week to get cash flowing and to fulfill supplier contracts.

bro1999

Actually I retract my congrats. Looks like Tesla fell just short. The broken promise production goal streak continues!
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-model3-exclusive/exclusive-tesla-hits-model-3-manufacturing-milestone-hours-after-deadline-factory-sources-idUSKBN1JR1WX?il=0

Viking79

That means their rate was probably closer to 6000/week at the end of the 7 day period.

Don Zenga

If Tesla can maintain 5,000 / week of Model-3/S/X combined, that will translate to 250,000 / year and that’s a lot.
I think only a maximum of 200,000 Pontiac-Vibe / Toyota-Matrix were made in that Fremont plant at it’s peak.

Converting a plant of 200,000 / year of ICEs to 250,000 / year of EVs is great achievement.
It will be better if Tesla can take over one of the idled plants of other automakers and start producing over there.

Or just takeover any idled plant of any other products and use it for auto manufacturing.

bro1999

So even though Tesla didn’t quite hit 5k/week, (let’s say 4,9xx), that means we can expect right around 20k Model 3’s produced in July, correct TSLA fans? Because the nearly 5k/week production the last week of June is repeatable and wasn’t just a temporary surge done by the company cutting as many corners as possible to hit a self-assessed deadline to help boost the stock?
And anything short of 20k Model 3’s produced in July would be a disappointment?

ffbj

Yes, what a bitter disappointment. I wonder how will the stock react. I’m going to go out a limb and say it will jump up again, and perhaps finally the shorts will just quietly fade into a distant memory.

antrik

How about you actually read the comment you are trolling? He said 5000 per week of 3/S/X *combined*.

Doggydogworld

That plant made a little over 400k cars at its peak.

David Green

And that was without 2 dozen tents all around…. But Tesla is smarter, better… haha!

Mister G

GO TESLA GO DESTROY DIRTY GAS GUZZLERS AND DIESELS LOL CONNECT THE DOTS ON CLEAN AIR WAKE UP FOLKS thanks co2.earth

CCIE

Thirty….Five…..Thousand…..Dollars…..???

Did I miss those important words? Because, flogging the horse to reach a temporary burst of 5000 $60k cars isn’t doing it for me.

Scott G

I get the significance of hitting that number. What I really want to know is the status on whether the 200,000th key metric was hit last quarter or not so I can relax on getting the full $7,500 for the 3 I finally ordered this weekend. Want to know if my Q4 estimated delivery is safe. Anyone know the story there?

No. We don’t know for sure and have no real way of knowing.

Seven Electrics

Tesla “started” the quarter producing just over 2,000 Model 3 units per week. In the end, the quarter “averaged” sales of 1,418 units per week. What is the credibility of a management that says they’re starting the quarter at just over 2,000 and will be growing to 5,000 by quarter end, but then delivers only 1,418 as an average for the quarter as a whole?

antrik

They *produced* 2381 per week on average.

MDEV

Please somebody help short sellers, please, they are losing billions betting agaist an American company
🙁