OP-ED: A Deep Dive Into Tesla’s Dominance in Electric Cars

SEP 23 2018 BY DAVID ROPER 110

Let’s take a look at how Tesla leads the electric vehicle segment by leaps and bounds.

I am a long-time follower of the progression of Tesla. I test drove the Tesla Model S several years ago and test drove the Tesla Model X over a year ago. I ordered the Tesla Model 3 on the first day possible and was delighted to get it on 28 May 2018, 2 years and 2 months later.

I have had five full electric cars since 2007, starting with a lead-acid-battery ZAP Xebra PK lead-acid-battery 3-wheel pickup, then two Nissan LEAFs, then the Chevrolet Bolt EV Premium and now the Tesla Model 3 Long-Range (TM3LR) BEV. My TM3LR’s VIN number is nearly 26,000.

My daughter and I recently drove my TM3LR on an easy round trip from Virginia to Texas using Autopilot most of the way. I have driven a huge number of cars since I am over 82 years of age and started driving on an Oklahoma farm at age 12. The TM3LR is the best car I have driven.

I have given many lectures on hybrid-electric cars(HEVs), plug-in hybrid-electric cars (PHEVs) and battery-electric cars (BEVs), have organized several local shows of them and have organized several local parade entries for BEVs. I have published several commentaries in The Roanoke Times in Virginia about BEVs; the latest is The electric vehicles revolution. I have followed closely the installation of charging stations for PHEVs and BEVs across the U.S. I have helped get such stations installed at several locations in my region and constantly admonish other locations to install them.

It is clear that Tesla is far ahead of other organizations in installing fast charging (480-volts-DC) charging stations (Superchargers) for Tesla cars and Tesla has installed a large number of 240-volts-AC charging stations for Tesla cars and all PHEVs and BEVs through its Charging Partner program. See below for maps of Tesla charging stations in the U.S.

I have read many online articles with titles such as:

I note that many of these articles have been written by Tesla stock-shorters or Internal-combustion-engine( ICE)-oriented people with vested interests in their predictions to be true. I think they are not considering much contrary evidence against their predictions:

  • A long-range BEV brand will survive long term only if a massive fast-charging (480-volts-DC) network spanning the U.S. in all directions is available for their BEVs to charge easily and pleasantly. Tesla has most of such a network (Superchargers) already and is rapidly adding to it:

Note the gray graph symbols for Superchargers to open in 2018 and 2019. The Superchargers are at interesting sites such as shopping centers, hotels and even gasoline stations. They range from 4 to 40 charging stations.

  • In addition, a long-range BEV brand will survive long term only if a there are many hotels where BEVs can charge overnight while their drivers are sleeping. Tesla has a large network of DestinationChargers (240-volts-AC charging stations) at many hotels across the U.S. and is constantly installing more:

Tesla is even working against its own interest by also installing at the same hotels standard 240-volts-AC charging stations that all PHEVs and BEVs can use. An example location is Courtyard Blacksburg in Blacksburg VA with two Tesla High Power Wall Connectors (up to 80A) and two Clipper Creek J1772s (up to 40A) available for patrons only.

Supercharging stations:  The large symbols show the Electrify America charging-station locations open currently. An example is the location at Brugh’s Mill Country store on I81 near Fincastle VA with one CHAdeMO station and four CCS stations.

Of course, there are negative aspects of Tesla Inc. I do not discuss them here because Tesla stock-shorters and ICE-oriented people have done a good job at that. Those who are predicting the fall of Tesla should study the history of Musk’s SpaceX. Pulling SpaceX from predictable demise after the first three rocket-launching failures make Tesla’s success look like child’s play!

My summary of upcoming BEVs of other car companies indicates that only VW will have an array of BEVs that can compete with Tesla’s BEVs over the next few years. VW is the originator of Electrify America, so combining its upcoming BEVs with the planned Electrify American charging network probably will place VW as the closest competitor to Tesla, but far behind it.


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110 Comments on "OP-ED: A Deep Dive Into Tesla’s Dominance in Electric Cars"

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Great article!

To bolster it, there’s this comment fresh from Pulitzer-Dan, last Friday: “It’s axiomatic that no company can catch Tesla if they don’t first leave the gate.”

Whether hoopla over cars years away, low volume plans, or likely limited geographic distribution, Evannex was spot on this time.

This should be noted as a dominant in USA market article.

BYD has been number one for a few years now worldwide.

Nothing against Tesla, but historically call a spade a spade please.

Tesla actually sells globally BYD doesn’t.

BYD is not sold worldwide,would be nice if they could sell it in USA ,first get them to pass North American crash and safety standards.

But BYD does sell across the globe, had or has interests and sales ranging from Thailand, Brazil, Russia til the Ukraine fiasco, South America etc. just because they only do EV , note keyword EV.
buses and trucks in USA doesn’t mean they don’t have a global footprint. Your in denial if you don’t think BYD is a global company.

I’ve experienced the BYD Tang. I am not sure you have. On principle, I agree with you, but on experience, BYD doesn’t sell cars suitable outside their market. Let me put it this way: I also drove the Smart EV and the BMW i3 at an event (well, we weren’t allowed to drive the i3, long story, but we rode in it). The BYD Tang was coarsely assembled, their left-hand drive had all kinds of things that were overlooked from a RHD model conversion (my fave was that the speedometer was way over on the dash next to the passenger side mirror), but it genuinely felt like all it was good for was a taxi in heavy traffic because the Smart EV had better acceleration and could go more than ~45 MPH. It was hard to be certain because the display flickered out when you accelerated, like they were on the same electrical circuit or something. Considering the manufacturing build quality (and I’m not fussy, believe me) and that random pipe end sticking out behind one of the wheels in the wheel well, I am not sure that there are crash and safety standards in China. It’s probably safer than… Read more »

Tesla recently surpassed BYD in the number of vehicles sold globally per month. It has long since passed BYD in terms of revenue or KWH of its battery packs, revenue, since Tesla cars cost much more than BYD cars and have longer range.


My 40kWh Leaf covers 99% of my driving needs. For the longer trips there’s Enterprise’s ICE options instead of spending tens of thousands up-front for more battery equity & then faffing about with ‘SuperCharging’ while on the road.

The 64kWh LG cars coming out next year are the wildcard in the near-term picture. I don’t think LG’s going to have the production volume to make a serious dent in Tesla’s marketshare, but mind-share wise Tesla is going to start having dozens of competitors instead of the handful they have now (Nissan, Chevy, BMW, Kia, did I miss anyone??).

I wish Tesla as a company well, but for them to get my business they’re going to have to make a car I actively want.

A return of the Toyota Rav4 EV, or a Supra, or maybe an AWD Bronco. Something cool.

I don’t need to drive a glorified Taurus around. The Leaf is bad enough, but at least it was eminently affordable ($27,000 plus tax less gov’t rebates) so I can let the design slide.

When All Legacy Auto are selling nothing but BEVs Elon can say well done, he has accomplished what he and Tesla set out to do,and he can turn his attention to his other passion Mars and beyond and maybe even the other hobby he has the Boring Co.who knows he might even bore all the way to China. LOL

Model Y would be their equivalent of the RAV4 EV.

With which Tesla already has a lot of experience thanks to Toyota.

And yet, Tesla made about 2,500 or 2,600 RAV4 EV Drive Trains, about the same number as they made First Generation Lotus Based Roadsters!

Between both of those projects, Tesla’s Model 3 produces that many (2,500!) in 4-5 days, tops, on Average, now!

So, by the Time Model Y starts Production, Tesla should have “Nailed” the “10,000 Model 3’s Per Week” Production Goal, since it is not likey Model Y Production will begin before that is “SOLID”, and “Steady!”

That could also lead to a Faster Model Y Ramp Up, as well! I predict, it will be ultimately aiming for 20,000 to 25,000 per week in max Production Goals, as Well! Mostly due to Even Larger than Model 3 interest / Reservation Numbers, and Desirability!

What is the Total Current CUV sized vehicles Sales Numbers? That is the Market the Model Y will be cutting into, plus more! (Performance Model Y, anyone?)

@Troy – “for them to get my business they’re going to have to make a car I actively want.” Tesla makes cars for general pubic that was why more than 400,000 people made a deposit for Model 3 2 years ago. Tesla doesn’t make a car just for YOU!

Tesla will not disclose how many of those people have since exited the waiting line. Given that you can have a Model 3 delivered in a month, it is safe to assume that many thousands of people have exited the waiting line since.

They disclose it at the end of the quarter on their earning report if I remember correctly. Feel free to correct me

Tesla DID disclose that they have 420k net reservations remaining at the end of Q2, so why does it matter how many of them were replaced cancellations?

Delivery in a month is for the long range rear wheel drive, which is the least interesting version. You’re jumping to the conclusion that people are exiting the line when the more obvious reasons are that reservation holders:
A) want the dual motor model
B) want the short range model
C) live in Europe
D) live in China

Everyone in the above 4 categories have no use for the delivered-in-a-month version you speak of.

Even so, Q4 will get a ton of RWD orders because it will be the last chance to get $7500 in tax credits instead of $3750. If potential buyers delay too much and join the crowd wanting delivery in December, they will risk being spilled over into January.

Yeah, what’s important is the net number of reservations plus orders. The exact number of cancellations is meaningless without the context of the number of new reservations and orders coming in.

This obsessive focus on cancellations only, taken out of context, appears to be just more fact-twisting Tesla bashing.

Please list what car makers disclose their reservation numbers. Please especially list those with over 100K reservations.

The reality is that reservations are just the tip of the iceberg on total future Model 3 sales, just like the Model S, the X, and the rest of the entire automotive industry.

Well, the eTron Quattro has sold out of their limited edition models in one day (granted, that was a scant 1000 units). Nikola Motors claimed a large reservation number for their CNG-based PHEV, but the only news we hear out of them of late is a dwindling lawsuit, and they never named who reserved their vehicles.

Yup! They did “Disclose” that 63,000 Cancelled their Reservations, Leaving 450,000 Net Reservations to fill! I also remember last Quarter Numbers stating 30,000 Model 3’s had been Delivered, and 420,000 Reservations Remained! So for every additional cancelation, they took another Reservation, New!

What a bogus comment.

That is what gets me. I am a Tesla fan, but I am sure the other car companies can make great BEVs too, but they don’t. Why not? You are not the only people I see mention the Rav4 would make a great BEV for example.

Also the Volt just got a software upgrade that makes it seem like a far better car, but it is my understanding it is to be dis-continued soon.

What is wrong with these companies.

Well for one they have capital tied up in the production of non-electric cars. Then you have to spend a lot of money to develop and make evs. It’s a big money sink for a number of years. Couple that with the fact that most evs that are to come out in the near future are not even competitive with the premium ev car maker, Tesla.
Tesla has not entered the low end of the market so that is available to the legacy auto-makers, but then those cars don’t make much money and may even be produced at a loss.

It’s hard. Volkswagen executives have admitted to it. Chevrolet isn’t exactly doing the “EV” part of the Bolt, that’s coming from LG. I think VW is leaning on Bosch a little, you know, the makers of the diesel cheatbox, but generally speaking, it is hard. Jaguar’s accomplishment with the iPace is significant, however, it is, with the successful exceptions of the Leaf, Bolt/Volt, BMW i3 and a couple not coming to mind, an EV-ification of an existing product line. I remember what Elon said about how frustrating it was to build the Roadster on the Lotus Elise glider, and they may as well have built their own chassis for all the effort. Electric vehicles have a lot of parts that have different requirements, but almost none of them are moving parts. That’s a concept. You do need to work on a transmission, but you don’t need to work on an on-board charger (there’s no scheduled maintenance on it, but if it fails, you should be able to swap it). If all you’ve ever done is build things the same way, followed certain rules your entire career, when someone comes along and says “most of that changed,” it’s hard to change… Read more »

They don’t have the battery tech. Tesla/Panasonic have got a secret sauce.
There is nothing the OEMS can do about it until they can match or better the battery tech

@earl colby pottinger: it could be that the oil industry are major shareholders and are ensuring their own interests are protected?

I see the need for justifying your Nissan Leaf. It’s a great car, be happy with it.

However when saying that it would cost “tens of thousands up-front for more battery” when going from the 40 kWh you have now to, say, 75 kWh, is nonsense. Batteries have come way down in price.

True but he got the Leaf for $20k net. Currently cheapest Tesla available is $42k net. So that is a chunk of money. But of course, there is a lot more that you get for that $20k.

Disclosure – have a Leaf and an S. Sometimes I want for a small battery higher end car. The Leaf is great but isn’t the S even to go 3 miles. The Leaf is great for a second car. Renting is just a pain. We had a roadtrip yesterday and the only Enterprises open are at the airport. So I saved $50 on rental and $40 on gas by having the Tesla. It doesn’t make up for “tens of thousands” but… there is resale also. My Leaf has lost $24k over 5 years, Tesla $30k over 3.5 years so the resale hit is still larger on the Tesla but going annually – about $5k for leaf and about $8k for Tesla. Throw in a few rental cars and gas and you aren’t talking a really huge difference…. until you throw interest back in.

Tesla has some interesting designs but in 2018 do they have a clear technology advantage? Very few legacy manufacturers can operate under such leverage as Tesla – they have strong Board of Directors and oversight. I contend if any legacy manufacturer was approved to borrow 13 billion dollars with an unspecified payback period, they too could replicate the efforts of Tesla with far less production and delivery hell. The latest ‘race’ to the end of the quarter with Tesla throwing out all the stops illustrates once again they have to employ extraordinary methods / incentives to meet production and delivery goals. As Tesla manufacturers more cars per month, their cash and credit balances get pushed to the limits. I suspect those who have ordered but are not getting VINs or timely communication on their orders has more to do with operating capital constraints. Tesla was increasing their payables to show less of a loss in Q2. The cash and payable balances need to be watched closely at the end of the quarter. We now know Tesla is incurring increased debt / cash obligations by building vehicles not ordered by paying customers (i.e. holding inventory) and offering incentives to move them.… Read more »

Yeah, there is no point having a great product if not manufactured profitably, things could unravel quite fast after Q3

@Dam said: “Yeah, there is no point having a great product if not manufactured profitably, things could unravel quite fast after Q3”


Smells like jimmy cheese…

By now, this laundry list of anti-Tesla FÜD is merely amusing. Every item on your list has been thoroughly refuted, so why should anyone waste time refuting them yet again?

You serial Tesla bashers are in very deep denial that Tesla’s Model 3 is a runaway success, and that Tesla is rapidly becoming profitable on a sustainable basis. Tesla had to pull out the stops to achieve profitability this quarter, while continuing to ramp up TM3 production and deliveries rapidly? Yes, I think they did. But next quarter they won’t, as the economy of scale continues to tip ever more strongly in Tesla’s favor.

You say other auto makers could easily show a profit where Tesla struggles to do so? Yes, but what other auto maker is going to increase its production by (probably) over 100% in a single year? It’s unimaginable that GM or Toyota or even Ford could double their output in a single year while continuing to be profitable!

Go Tesla! Keep going Tesla!

Tesla has 3 times more employees per car than BMW,In all likeliness they will again book a massive loss for Q3, their processes are very expensive.

Was that last quarter? They doubled the number of cars they were selling Q2 vs Q3. Worthless stats like that are meaningless.

It’s true, too, that comparing Tesla to other car companies is rather a stupid exercise.
Yes, they make cars but nothing can hold a candle to them, as in nothing can compare or compete with them. Saying other legacy companies would do better is beyond a logical fallacy, which it is, but it’s even worse, since no fact, or extrapolation of fact, indicates anything remotely correct about that conjecture.

If you think Tesla will book a massive loss for Q3, you haven’t been paying attention.

Gosh do you think Exec (VP supply and accounting) are fleeing a profitable company ? !!! good luck with that

Are you the last person to learn out the shortage of highly qualified workers and executives in Silicon Valley, and the massive poaching between highly successful companies?

The more successful your company, the more other companies try to poach your talent.


… isn’t Tesla

Yes, what a beautiful example of a completely invalid comparison.


Dude, that’s the financial equivalent of calling someone a Nazi. Once you do that, nobody will listen to anything else you try to say.

And they might not be the only Executives in a company that Jumped Ship for more money, with a plan to Sell their skills to a higher Bidder!

Under /over on profit or losses

Wow, what business school did you attend to come up with a metric like that?
Are you a landscape material supplier? I’m sure you have the best/lowest employee per unit item sold. Your business must be very profitable.

yes it is, and yes it s also a good metric to look at cost.Telsa manufacturing has very little chance of being profitable, it s a business that runs on shareholders money.
BMW with a similar pricing has only 120k ( Tesla 40k) employees for over 2.7M vehicle a year

I would be very surprised if Tesla loses less than $500M this Q3 (my bet is they will stay around ($700MM))

(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous

“it s a business that runs on shareholders money.”

Aren’t they all???

By those numbers, it’s 22.5 BMWs / employee, and 9.1 Teslas / employee (7000 / cars per week). Not great, but if they do manage to ramp up to 10,000 Model 3’s a week + 2000 S/X, that brings it to 15.6 Teslas / employee. Still not as efficient, but Tesla buys less OEM parts than other manufacturers, which means you should add in the OEM maker’s employees to make it a better comparison. Unfortunately, I don’t know how to estimate the number of OEM part maker’s employees.

Throw in the Tesla employees at Tesla Stores and Delivery Centers, means you should also add in BMW’s dealer’s employees.

So sayeth Bob Lutz in his old folks home for retired auto executives, with a pool, billiards parlor, and interview stage. This is an over-simplification of concepts here. Tesla makes a whole lot more of the car themselves, including their own batteries. Amazingly, they are seeing Porsche-grade margin on the Model S and Model X. They are also doing 100 other things no other manufacturer is doing.

It will always be perceived as FUD when your mind is closed.

FACT – Every quarter Tesla goes to final week scramble mode to meet projected targets- instead of steady state progress throughout the quarter

FACT – Tesla’s cash and cash equivalents are quite low during a time when they are trying to increase production

FACT – While Tesla is trying to deliver a profitable (self imposed) Q3, their payables have increased.
—Some Tesla Suppliers Fret About Getting Paid
Auto maker’s tumultuous year has concerned some of its suppliers, which are pushed to extend payment terms or asked to give cash back
WSJ – By Tim Higgins, Marc Vartabedian and Christina Rogers
Updated Aug. 20, 2018 4:48 p.m. ET

—Tesla suppliers have multiple liens against the company – viewable on line from Alameda County web site

FALSE – ‘You say other auto makers could easily show a profit where Tesla struggles to do so?’
When your mind is closed, comprehension is the 1st casualty

Who can have a conversation with you when you are disoriented about demonstrable Tesla FACTS?

Wow…talk about closed minds! All you care is the stock game while most here could not care less…

No Elon mention profit q3, that’s what is expected. I want them to make profit I hope they do

he has stopped talking about profit, only delivery LOL

(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous

If you don’t deliver anything you don’t profit.

Yeah, and Darn is very afraid that Tesla will show a significant profit. That’s why he’s in here desperately making FÜD after FÜD post.

But all he’s accomplishing is highlighting his own increasing fears about losing on his short investment.

FACT – Every End of Month traditional ICE car dealerships go on a massive push to meet their numbers. Is this somehow bad?

FACT – Tesla’s cash is over $2 Billion, and will likely still be well over $2 Billion at end of Q3. What imaginary problem does that cause?

FACT – Inventory (cars in the pipeline) has increased 3X faster than payables. Building cars costs money up front to order parts that is recouped when the car is built and sold. Is ramping up production bad?
—Some Tesla Suppliers had to renegotiate their contract as Tesla successfully reached mass production rates and now has leverage to renegotiate. Successful companies do this all the time. Is being successful enough to have leverage to renegotiate contracts bad?

—Tesla suppliers have multiple liens against the company — specifically ones that Tesla FIRED because they did things like fail to correctly build parts. Are you under the false impression that liens are because Tesla can’t pay? Why are you making a mountain out of a run-of-the-mill contract dispute?

What you have done is simply prove you are blind to the big picture.

Dealers have nothing to do with company since they already brought the cars from the company

Tesla does both the role of dealership and manufacturer, so if in your comparisons to other car companies you have failed to take this into account, all of your analysis on Tesla is fundamentally and irreparably faulty.

(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous

Then why do they always have an end of the month Truck/SUV sale????

The problem you’re going to have getting anyone to agree with you is the fact that you appear to have put a huge amount of time into these arguments, and why would anyone do that for a company they don’t like unless they’re getting paid to do so?

How about backing up your screed of anti-Tesla FUD with some attribution from verifiable news sources? Can you manage that?

Really? It is not anti-Tesla, these are just facts:

– end of quarter push that is not sustainable -> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-02/tesla-model-3-burst-sends-thousands-of-sedans-to-waiting-buyers

– cash burn is really bad and Tesla will probably run out of cash -> https://seekingalpha.com/article/4190397-bad-teslas-cash-position

– Tesla is likely to stop paying suppliers -> https://www.businessinsider.com/suppliers-worry-about-tesla-bankruptcy-survey-2018-8

– Tesla sells a lot of cars….except consumers don’t buy cars, SUVs are the growth segment and Tesla has nothing to offer except the Model X that is out of reach for most customers

– By 2022 Volkswagen alone will have 27 EV models for sale around the world and will sell 10 million EVs….how many does Tesla sell ?-> http://fortune.com/2018/09/17/volkswagen-electric-id-meb-10-million/

– Tesla has problems delivering cars -> https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-musk/musk-says-tesla-now-in-delivery-logistics-hell-idUSKCN1LX054

– Tesla repairs take super long -> https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/why-does-it-take-months-repair-tesla

– Tesla cars are so screwed up that nobody can repair them well so Tesla has to do it themselves -> https://www.caranddriver.com/news/elon-musk-tesla-body-shop-repair

– Tesla cars are very expensive to insure -> https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-expensive-porsche-911-insure/

– There is a lot more….Tesla has poor reliability….Tesla is priced as a luxury car, but Elon says that Tesla does not make luxury cars. ….

The EVs are the future, but Tesla as a car company is just another Blackberry

-Tesla will go much higher over the long term, just like with S and X
-Tesla’s cash is over $2B and Tesla goes through a burn cycle as they launch every new product before recovering
-WSJ story just proves that 1 in 3 old school automotive industry refuses to accept Tesla. Tesla disputed the “survey”
-Model Y
-VAG talks big and rarely delivers
-Do you think that short term teething pains because sales growth is so massive is BAD?
-Tesla just opened their first repair shops to deal with repair times. Turn-around has been documented to be as fast as 25 hours after the collision.
-There is a national shortage of skilled repair techs for 3rd party shops, so Tesla is paying to train techs. Tesla shops have no problem repairing Tesla’s…
-That is one survey from one source. Actual owners report getting much better rates when they shop around.
-Reliability has greatly improved, and people are reporting very high satisfaction ratings. The highest in the industry.

You are a rolling “Gish” style FUD disaster who can’t see that big picture that Tesla has successfully broken into mass production of EV’s at a level beating ICE

“VAG talks big and rarely delivers”

Apparently there is also FUD for companies other than Tesla.

You need to look up FUD”. There is D for sure and that has good precedent.

Clearly you haven’t been watching how many of Volkswagen’s announcements for putting EVs into production have turned out to be vaporware over the past decade or two. I’m fairly sure it’s easily more than 90%.

If I was a VW fan, I’d be monumentally embarrassed about their endless stream of EV vaporware.

Thanks for the sources

Seriously, “I know”? You’re actually citing Seeking Alpha and Business Insider as “authorities” on Tesla’s business?

WOW! 😯 How sad that you actually believe those are reliable sources. Well, you’ll find out in about a week now just how “reliable” those are — or rather, aren’t — when Tesla reports its 3rd quarter earnings statement.

Ok pu with no ev

Strong board of directors and oversight led-
GM to bankruptcy.
Ford to leverage even it’s brand name to avoid bankruptcy.
VW to indulge in massive emission fraud that almost brought them to heel.
Chrysler had to be sold to a foreign brand.

Yeah!! Sure.

Tesla going private and selling to the dirty terrorist Saudis

Along with dirty diesel VW. That fell through, FYI.

As bad as the ones that keep saying Tesla will fail, model 3 will fail, Tesla can’t make 5000 cars a week, … bla, bla, bla, are the ones that think competition will be always behind and/or inexistent.

The problem lies with the fact that most of the other legacy manufacturers think like legacy car manufacturers. They don’t have a leader with an entrepreneur/disrupter mind like Elon. So in a way yest they will always be behind. They want the market to stay the same so they can reap profits. The rocket industry has not changed in what 50 years, Elon come along and destroys it in ten years.
Enuff said

“…the ones that think competition will be always behind and/or inexistent.”

That won’t continue forever, but it has been and continues to be entirely predictable that this situation will continue for at least a few years, and probably several.

(BTW — The word you want is “nonexistent”. #GrammarNazi)

See The Innovator’s Dilemma:


“Apparently, there are over 300,000 TM3 orders to be filled and several hundred orders per week are coming in.”
“Apparently” or “probably”?

I’d say both, altho I wonder why he thinks the number is as low as ~300,000. Isn’t it more like 400,000 or even more? Aren’t new reservations coming in as fast or faster than Tesla is building cars?

Actually I think the number is high but what do i know….

I think you’re right, though that may not give you any solace.

Actually no, the reservations are not coming as fast as Tesla can build cars. You can have a model 3 in 4 weeks. Model S on the other hand is more like 6 weeks wait time.

Model 3 is currently only being sold in the US and Canada, and only the most expensive versions of the range are available, so it’s hardly surprising delivery times are relatively short. I’m sure you you know that, I know.

I’m pretty sure that “I know” is just the latest existing serial anti-Tesla username to re-register under another username to try and magnify their FUD.

Correction: you can only have a rear wheel drive with long range battery and premium upgrade package in 4 weeks if you live in the US. The following versions are not available in 4 weeks:
-rear wheel drive without premium package
-rear wheel drive with short range battery
-all wheel drive with short range battery
-all wheel drive with long range battery
-performance all wheel drive
-all versions in Europe
-all versions in Asia

That’s probably 90% of demand that is not available in 4 weeks. If Tesla had any issue with orders not coming fast enough, they’d start shipping to Europe already.

As for your Model S comparison, remember how demand was supposedly falling for it when wait times got short now and then since 2014? That prediction still hasn’t materialized…

And even more illustrative is how the Model S is still the best selling large, luxury sedan in both the Us and Europe.

But haters are going to hate.

Thanks! You made the point much better than I did.

“Actually no, the reservations are not coming as fast as Tesla can build cars. You can have a model 3 in 4 weeks.”

That’s as silly as claiming Wal*Mart is out of DVDs because you can’t find a copy of “Gung Ho” (1986).

Just because U.S. buyers can get a Model 3 with a narrow set of options without much waiting, doesn’t mean the total number of reservations is declining. Foreign reservations are still piling up, and a lot of people are holding onto their reservation, waiting for the Standard Range version of the car, or at least until they don’t have to pay for the PUP (Premium Upgrade Package).

@Op-Ed David Proper- Great job detailing the Tesla advantages that have allowed Tesla to dominate EV especially the detail you provide about the Tesla convenient and reliable fast charge network for those occasional long distance trips.

Yes, despite the serial anti-Tesla haters who post their weakn repetitive whining FUD here.

BYD in California with the buses and trucks don’t count? They are EV yes?
China and USA would be global yes?

Except on this thread, it’s always an escape from reality.

I wish Tesla the best, but look at insideevs worldwide sales vs Tesla only sales and also look at USA vs world and it’s not like nobody else makes EV’s geesh, get a grip.

If you are going to save the planet we need everybody in!

Other than BYD selling to a captive audience, Tesla is it. The Volt/Bolt sales are stagnant, Leaf sales are tanking, BMW is barely dipping its toes in the water, Ford has been found on road dead. Hyundai/Kia have good game but won’t build more than a handful. Who else is there? Jaguar with their three dozen a month iPace? Chinese NEV’s? Tesla is it for the next year or two.

Leaf sales are tanking… in North America. Worldwide the sales are better than last year with the previous model.

Great! So that is why they held off going to the 60 kWh Battery for Early 2019’s? I mean, if the 40 kWh pack is selling so good, why offer an upsized Battery, yet? Right?!

Agreed so go tell your employers to hurry the fu&ck up. Gatineau just got hit with a major Tornado and Montreal had the longest humid summer filled with flash thunderstorms. The environment has rapidly changed just in the last 2 years and it’s going to get worse.

I am weary of the old repeatedly recycled bullshit the naysayers cling to so desperately. I posted this comment elsewhere a few days ago, but I think it will serve well enough here too. ––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– Nonsense. Just stop, have a coffee and THINK, for once. It’s not that hard, if you’re honest and even-handed in your view of the world.. Hooo…ahhh! Listen close now, cos I’m givin’ you pearls here (with much respect to Bo Goldman and Al Pacino). Do you naysayers truly believe Tesla will fail? Really? That’s still your claim, with zero evidence to support you? Think of all your other, glorious, long-established ICE carmakers shackled by their dead technologies, and their vast supply chains and their many after-market suppliers, their dealers, their engineers and mechanics and more besides. Sadly for them, they will all have to face up to a bitter, totally unavoidable reality rsn. I’m sure they already are by now. The writing is on the wall in big bold letters. It just will not go away. The ugly truth is the imminent and inevitable collapse in value of their vast accumulated investment in their ICE infrastructure – in the oh-so-costly fixed assets of ICE car… Read more »

btw, a good article. Thank you. I hope my comment below adds some useful, undeniable market intel, about the ICE franchises, to your case.

The biggest problem with this is twofold. First, Tesla was never intended to be the ONLY EV car company. The goal was to push the technology to get other companies to adopt the tech – mission accomplished. The second, and the most important in my book, is that their cars are simply way too expensive for the majority of the automotive buying public. Don’t talk to me about the so called “affordable” Model 3 that isn’t even in production yet and even when it is, thirty five grand is still too high for people looking for basic transportation. It is also should be mentioned that not everyone on the planet WANTS a Tesla in the first place, something that seems to get lost in all of these pro Tesla articles. It’s like trying to convince people that there are other phones out there besides Apple.

The biggest problem is that Tesla is the only one that really cares about doing it. The rest only care about profit and are willing to destroy the environment and kill people in order to do it.

Spare us the moral outrage. All companies are expected to be profitable. Those who are not go bankrupt, which is why most traditional manufacturers are taking a gradual approach.

Profit and margins are the only thing that matter on the manufacturer side. Comfort, Initial cost and cost of operation are the only things that matter on the mass consumer side. No car company has presented a truly compelling case to a general public who would drive cars that run on orphan tears if it meant saving some money. People only pay lip service to the environment. If you want to make an impact you need fully loaded EVs under 30k that have the Tesla range. Doesn’t matter who makes them, how they make them, or where they make them.

Speak for yourself. “Comfort, initial cost, and cost of operation” are not the only things that matter to me, nor are they the top things. First and foremost thing I considered when buying my PHEV was the ability to do my commute on EV only so that I could to 100% carbon free commuting, even if it cost me more. I don’t pay “lip service to the environment” I pay my hard earned dollars. Granted there needs to be low cost EVs to fully capture the market, but NOBODY can make long range (300+) EVs profitably at sub $30k price today, not even Tesla. That is simply due to battery costs. Eventually that will come to fruition, but still several years out.

“Profit and margins are the only thing that matter on the manufacturer side.”

…according to the “greed is good” philosophy which has ruled far too much of Wall Street starting in the 1980s.

Thank goodness some businessmen, including Elon Musk, and some businesses, still have some remaining traces of a soul and a conscience.

“Don’t be evil” — Google’s recently removed motto

After talking to fellow Tesla owners on my first road trip in the model 3 this weekend, I think Tesla will be dominant in their price range for the foreseeable future. And once used model 3s come on the market those will soak up a lot of the lower priced market as well. The reason is owners are just so fanatically enthusiastic about the cars and Tesla. The brand just as a ton of value right now. Can you name any other car manufacturer where people would volunteer to do free work them? If, and to be clear I don’t think this will happen, the worst case were to happen and Tesla got into financial trouble I have to believe Apple, Google or a legacy car company would scoop them up in a heart beat. So, I have no concerns whatsoever about my model 3 becoming a stranded asset. BMW, Mercedes and Audi should really be puckering about the other Tesla shoe (model Y) dropping. Personally I think Tesla should be held out as a shining example of what an American company can pull off.

I’ve been following Tesla as long as anyone (2005, bought TSLA at $19) and am a huge fan of what they are doing, but I’m also very aware of the possibly fatal problems they still have ahead of them in scaling, in particular trying to do delivery and service without a massive dealer network. Yes, I think that could still sink them.

Several minor errors to correct in the article:

typo: “lead-acid-battery” twice in one sentence

error: “480 V DC” — you’re confusing the DC charging system voltage (typically 400V but rated up to 500V) with one of the common three-phase AC supply voltages (480V); you should just change it to 400V, as it’s a bit embarrassing as is.

typo: “actuated”

First off, congratulations on your Tesla stock gain.

As far as the errors go, for someone conversant with electricals its not that uncommon. The article writer doesn’t claim any particular knowledge of the subject, and it may be pointed out that MOST Superchargers run from a 277Y/480 system in North America. They charge at 277 and not at 480, btw since they’re the same units they used to use in the cars.

One REAL error in the article is that “Tesla is not helping the competition” at the Peppermint Restaurant in Avon, NY, where they have THREE destination docking stations yet NO Clipper Creeks. I ate lunch there last Saturday, but couldn’t charge up since I never bought the Tesla Adapter. I figure leave the Tesla docking stations for the Teslas. Although that is a HUGE number for tiny Avon, Ny.

I always ask new Model 3 owners if they had any problems to speak of as of yet. I’m pleasantly surprised that most say they have not. If so, the ‘3’ is the most trouble free Tesla to date.

Tesla not only dominates EVs, but provides badly needed Leadership in modern transportation.

More people will want to buy. Tesla’s and EV’s in general because crude oil alone has gone up $20.00 from a year ago to over. $70.00 a barrel now. Also gasoline prices are higher in the US because oil companies are exporting 1.8 million barrels a day overseas rather than make gasoline for consumers here.
Thank you oil companies for accelerating the adoption of EV’S.
The fossil industry has had consumers under there thumb, finally there’s alternatives.

Just a note, the only thing that changed on the oil side is that we went from exporting gasoline to exporting crude. That just transferred the wealth from refineries to drillers, I don’t see an global effect on prices of either.

The spacex links don’t work unless you’re logged in to ‘pocket’ something.

Stupid banter, back & forth from those that gush over Tesla & those that are haters. My opinion is they are not only great cars, but Mr. Musk overcame insurmountable odds to bring them to market. That being said, they are still too expensive. Does the gushes think that Tesla is going to replace Toyota, Honda, GM, Ford & Fiat/Chrysler just to name a few? Do the haters think Tesla will go bankrupt? Will Tesla suddenly replace Kenilworth because they makea battery powered truck? What about Caterpillar, is that there next conquest? The answer is a resounding No to ask these dumb questions. You need to all get off your high horse and accept the fact that others are entitled to their own opinions & quit trying to bring a flame thrower (I know, he makes those also) to those with opposing points of view.

“Do the haters think Tesla will go bankrupt?”

Many of them have been predicting exactly that, on a regular basis, for years. Whether or not they actually believe what they post… well, that’s far more questionable.

Perhaps you should read more about all the efforts the “haters” go through in their efforts to manipulate Tesla’s stock price, before you post another rant about those of us who actively oppose them.