Tesla Q2 Production – Model 3 Hits 28,578, Total Reaches 53,339

JUL 2 2018 BY ERIC LOVEDAY 89

Production has been “in tents” the past two weeks.

In spectacular fashion, the automaker produced over 28,000 Model 3, which is more than Model S and Model X production combined.

Tesla has just released official production figures for Q2 2018.

Tesla notes that the 53,339 total vehicles produced actually represents an impressive 55% boost over Q1 production. The automaker states:

Q2 production totaled 53,339 vehicles, a 55% increase from Q1, making it the most productive quarter in Tesla history by far. For the first time, Model 3 production (28,578) exceeded combined Model S and X production (24,761), and we produced almost three times the amount of Model 3s than we did in Q1. Our Model 3 weekly production rate also more than doubled during the quarter, and we did so without compromising quality.

See our detailed sales estimate post with expectations for June. This is not to be confused with production figures, which vary widely as compared to sales.

Moving on…

Tesla notes in its release that the new “Tesla Tent” (referred to by Tesla as GA4) is actually turning out to be a solid producer. The automaker states:

GA4, our new General Assembly line for Model 3, was responsible for roughly 20% of Model 3s produced last week, with quality from that line being as good as our regular GA3 line. We expect that GA3 alone can reach a production rate of 5,000 Model 3s per week soon, but GA4 helped to get us there faster and will also help to exceed that rate.

As we noted over the weekend, Tesla production hit nearly 7,000 units in the past 7 days. Officially, Tesla puts that figure at 6,944. Here’s the breakdown:

In the last seven days of Q2, Tesla produced 5,031 Model 3 and 1,913 Model S and X vehicles.

Tesla says it should be able to produce 6,000 Model 3s per week by late August.

As for deliveries, Tesla states:

Q2 deliveries totaled 40,740 vehicles, of which 18,440 were Model 3, 10,930 were Model S, and 11,370 were Model X. Model S and X deliveries are in line with our guidance provided on May 3.

There are those in-transit vehicles to mention too:

11,166 Model 3 vehicles and 3,892 Model S and X vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of Q2, and will be delivered in early Q3. The high number of customer vehicles in transit for Model 3 was primarily due to a significant increase in production towards the end of the quarter.

And lastly, Tesla has provided us with all-time delivery figures for the Model 3:

…we have now delivered 28,386 Model 3 vehicles to date.

And some 420,000 reservations for the Model 3 are still out there somewhere, according to the automaker.

More info in the Tesla press release below.

Tesla Q2 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

PALO ALTO, Calif., July 02, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — In the last seven days of Q2, Tesla produced 5,031 Model 3 and 1,913 Model S and X vehicles.

Q2 production totaled 53,339 vehicles, a 55% increase from Q1, making it the most productive quarter in Tesla history by far. For the first time, Model 3 production (28,578) exceeded combined Model S and X production (24,761), and we produced almost three times the amount of Model 3s than we did in Q1. Our Model 3 weekly production rate also more than doubled during the quarter, and we did so without compromising quality.

GA4, our new General Assembly line for Model 3, was responsible for roughly 20% of Model 3s produced last week, with quality from that line being as good as our regular GA3 line. We expect that GA3 alone can reach a production rate of 5,000 Model 3s per week soon, but GA4 helped to get us there faster and will also help to exceed that rate.

Tesla expects to increase production to 6,000 Model 3s per week by late next month. We also reaffirm our guidance for positive GAAP net income and cash flow in Q3 and Q4, despite negative pressures from a weaker USD and likely higher tariffs for vehicles imported into China as well as components procured from China.

Q2 deliveries totaled 40,740 vehicles, of which 18,440 were Model 3, 10,930 were Model S, and 11,370 were Model X. Model S and X deliveries are in line with our guidance provided on May 3. As we previously noted, we are in the process of changing the quarterly production pattern of those vehicles for the various worldwide regions to ensure a more linear flow of deliveries through the quarter. Both orders and deliveries for Model S and X were higher in Q2 than a year ago. Our overall target for 100,000 Model S and Model X deliveries in 2018 is unchanged.

11,166 Model 3 vehicles and 3,892 Model S and X vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of Q2, and will be delivered in early Q3. The high number of customer vehicles in transit for Model 3 was primarily due to a significant increase in production towards the end of the quarter.

The remaining net Model 3 reservations count at the end of Q2 still stood at roughly 420,000 even though we have now delivered 28,386 Model 3 vehicles to date. When we start to provide customers an opportunity to see and test drive the car at their local store, we expect that our orders will grow faster than our production rate. Model 3 Dual Motor All Wheel Drive and Model 3 Dual Motor All Wheel Drive Performance cars will also be available in our stores shortly.

The last 12 months were some of the most difficult in Tesla’s history, and we are incredibly proud of the whole Tesla team for achieving the 5,000 unit Model 3 production rate. It was not easy, but it was definitely worth it.

**********************

Our delivery count should be viewed as slightly conservative, as we only count a car as delivered if it is transferred to the customer and all paperwork is correct. Final numbers could vary by up to 0.5%. Tesla vehicle deliveries represent only one measure of the company’s financial performance and should not be relied on as an indicator of quarterly financial results, which depend on a variety of factors, including the cost of sales, foreign exchange movements and mix of directly leased vehicles.

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89 Comments on "Tesla Q2 Production – Model 3 Hits 28,578, Total Reaches 53,339"

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G2

Well done to the Tesla Team!
Hope the ‘Shorts’ are getting it in ‘the shorts’😄

Seven Electrics

Stock is still down from the recent high caused by Elon buying stock using money borrowed against… his Tesla stock. No alarm bells there.

Nix

Manufacturing stocks in general keep getting hit by trade tariff fears driving down stocks. F and GM are much further off their 52 week highs. GM is down 15% off their 52 week high. F is down 20%. TSLA is off 10%.

Big Solar

Dont forget to mention the entire US (and most of the worlds) economy is a propped up house of cards.

Will

First ones to go are luxury startups

William

Hopefully, “most of the world”, will have a “propped up house”, with a PV solar/power wall system, and a couple of real (non-compliance) EVs in the driveway. Now that would be a winning hand.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Seven Electrics continued his anti-Tesla FUD campaign:

“Stock is still down from the recent high…”

Not nearly as much as your “short” investment in TSLA is down, dude! Just how much money have you lost on that just this year alone? And hey, Tesla appreciates how you shorters keep propping up the stock price every time you have to cover your shorts!

Shorts goin’ thru the wringer — again!
😆 😆 😆

Elooney Muskey

“Hope the ‘Shorts’ are getting it in ‘the shorts’”
Yeah, baby! We are loving scr**** Tesla!

Pushmi-Pullyu

You’re “loving” the ~$2 billion lost by TSLA shorters just in the last month (June) alone?

So you’re not only a troll, you’re a masochist!
😀 😀 😀

Albaby

Does that mean that Tesla has tripped the 200K threshold in Q2 2018?

bro1999

Sounds like it. I believe they were at ~194k entering June. If IEVs estimate of 6k 3’s in June is correct, that would be enough to break the 200k barrier without even adding in S and X sales.

Seven Electrics

Tesla needs the money.

Dav8or

Yes, at this point the $7500 credit really isn’t that important to Tesla. While I’m sure most all Tesla buyers would like the credit, it’s clear they don’t need it and that they’re going to buy the car one way or another. On the flip side, Tesla really does need the money.

ffbj

No, since those are not deliveries, and only cars delivered in the U.S. count. These are production numbers.

bro1999

IEV’s estimated Tesla sold 10,125 Model 3s in April and May combined. Since Tesla just announced they “delivered” 18,440 3’s in Q2, that means they sold 7-8k 3s in June..more than enough to break past 200k without even factoring S and X sales. Looks like the credit clock just started ticking!

Viking79

I wouldn’t assume those earlier estimates were correct. Given the number of lots with thousands of Model 3s on them and with how many they were shipping to Canada, I would not at all be surprised if they let their deliveries suffer in June when investors are already expecting bad results from Q2. This will also bolster Q3 deliveries to help Q3 and Q4 show profitable results.

jelloslug

You are missing the Canadian deliveries.

dan

Model S and X sales also count towards the credit. If those sales numbers are correct, it would be mathematically impossible to avoid 200k. Canada’s population is only 10% that of the US. There are only so many Teslas you can send north of the border before running out out orders to fill.

This is not a bad problem to have. If Tesla exceeds 200k, it likely means that they are finally succeeding at getting their manufacturing process together. That is a good thing for their long term health.

Pushmi-Pullyu

This is almost certainly correct. It’s laudable that InsideEVs is showing proper scientific skepticism in holding off stating as definite fact that the 200,000 milestone has been passed before all the evidence is in, but at this point it’s extremely difficult to find any justification for thinking otherwise. There is far, far too little evidence to support the belief that Tesla still has not passed the 200,000 milestone.

Canadian Model 3 deliveries are estimated, we don’t have that number for sure. We also have no 100-percent guarantee of how many of the total Model S and X deliveries from the quarter and the month went overseas. So, there’s always still a chance.

We are talking about years and years worth of data here that had the same issue with Tesla never splitting U.S. deliveries from international deliveries. We won’t likely know for sure for some time. The IRS will have to “every so slowly” work its magic and come to a determination. Tesla doesn’t have to report it. To say outwardly for certain that it has been hit would be to mislead everyone. We honestly don’t know.

windbourne

Only if they all went to Americans, which is not the case.

windbourne

Only if they were all delivered to Americans.
OTOH, if Tesla delivered to Canadians, and Mexicans, and Europeans , along with simply parked a lot and are waiting to deliver them, then no. I’m sure they did not hit 200K.
But hey, nice troll.

I provided our estimates from Canada in this article:

https://insideevs.com/why-we-believe-tesla-passed-200k-u-s-sales-in-june/

When added with our US delivery estimates for Q2 and about 200 Canadian 3s delivered in late May, our quarterly estimates almost 100% match Teslas final numbers.

No Model 3s have been sold in Mexico or Europe. (although a few wealthy Europeans have imported ones from the US)

Jan

Great Job! Well done. Does anyone know if they did hit the 200k mark of deliveries regarding the incentives?

Robert Weekley

Some stories that Elon will shortly be making some big announcement…Maybe it will be the 200,000th Tesla Delivery? (shortly = what seems to be in a few days!)

Mil

I’m gonna enjoy reading the lame excuses the shorts and naysayers are gonna throw around now……”but, but, but…Tesla was also involved in the Kennedy assassination”

Robert Weekley

No – really – THAT one is True! As a Baby, Elon Said – He’s Gotta Go, in Baby talk, and the CIA Agreed!
/S

Soops – Wrong Story! Baby Elon was thinking about Fossil Fueled Cars – even back then! CIA Mis-Translated his message! “He’s Gotta Go” – was really – “They Got To Go, and So do I!”
🙂

Taylor Marks
Shorts already began their new narrative of quality having suffered as of last night. Wasn’t where I expected them to go. I was expecting them to scream about how the cars aren’t profitable. The quality narrative will be easily and obviously be shot down within 60 days and more likely in less than half that time, when Tesla puts out their Q2 results and talks about customer satisfaction. Profits, on the other hand, had a chance of being a difficult story to combat for the next 4 months. Tesla almost certainly took a loss on the Model 3 in Q2. They needed to deliver 36K – 45K depending on where you believe the breakeven point is – they only delivered 18K. Probably results in a loss of ~$300M. But Model S and X probably brought in ~$400M… so I expect the net will be about $100M positive. Shorts will argue that Tesla is only making $2K/car and their margins are garbage and, oh yeah, all the special tricks Tesla did this one quarter that can’t be done next quarter. So yeah – that was the angle I expected from shorts. Until we have Q3 results roll around in November with… Read more »
CCIE

That does seem like an interesting line of thought. It used to be that you didn’t want a Chrysler made on a Monday or Friday. I don’t recall exactly why. With Tesla, you don’t want one made in the last couple weeks of the quarter, or one made in the tent!

ffbj

Because on Monday the work force is hung-over from the weekend, and then on Friday, they’re all just putting in the time and watching the clock, for the weekend.

Chris O

Gullible investors? Tesla’s stock has remained stratospheric throughout the shorter’s FUD bombardment in the past few years.

I wouldn’t worry too much about Seeking Alpha&co, I don’t think anybody takes this stuff all that seriously anymore.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Make some popcorn and watch the shorters whine and sputter.

Apparently, from his comment here, “Elooney Muskey” enjoys being Tesla’s b*tch. 😛

philip d

Yep. I thought it was predictable that the criticism would be after they made their target that Tesla must have cut corners to do so. And they loved the “tent” because they could weave that into their narrative.

Will

What’s the numbers on the power wall solar roof and solar city

Pushmi-Pullyu

Looks like SolarCity is still winding down its money-losing sales model. I would have expected that to happen sooner, but they only recently ended sales thru Home Depot. Maybe there was a contract with them which had to run out?

Anyway, it seems pretty apparent that SolarCity is currently losing money due to its legacy obligations, and I don’t think it has yet started sales in quantity of its in-house commercial solar panels.

I don’t know about PowerWalls and PowerPacks, but Panasonic’s recent statement about having difficulty meeting Tesla’s demand for cells leads me to think that they probably have little if any excess capacity with which to build PWs and PPs. So likely not much income there, aside from what was sold in Puerto Rico.

Seven Electrics

Deliveries were below 50K in the first year of production, as I predicted. 5K per week deadline missed for the third time, although this one by only a few hours, despite the tent desperation play. Still, maybe we will actually see the 35K car after all, which is good news. Opening orders to everyone, along with the performance price cut, indicates supply will soon exceed demand for the higher priced models.

Nix

Twenty Two Electrics — Yawn. You whine about 50K, and Tesla will blow past 50K in Q3 alone at current production rates. Meanwhile GM has STILL failed to ever hit their original 2012 production target of 60K Volt/Ampera units 6 years later.

Actually hitting targets, even if it is a few quarters late, certainly beats never hitting targets ever, or having such tiny, minuscule targets that the numbers are a rounding error on the monthly sales chart, like so many car makers with models at the bottom of the list.

Pushmi-Pullyu

@Seven Pretend Electrics

Your increasing desperation is showing, as your FUD diverges more and more obviously from reality! Slink back under your bridge, Mr. Troll.

Go Tesla!

Kbm3

5031 > 5000, so deadline was made.

The right pointing arrow means greater than. It’s pretty apparent you don’t understand basic arithmetic, so I’m not sure how much more explanation is required?

ffbj

Congratulations!

Ron Swanson's Mustache

This is wonderful news!

Congratulations go to the hardworking teams at Tesla and Elon!

James

FINALLY got my order in – Juuuust under the July 1 threshold.

AWD ( Non-performance ). In Gotcha Red. 19″ wheels.

No Autopilot. OK, tell me what you think about ordering without Autopilot. I know Tesla
says they’ll charge me more for it after the fact – but the price of the Dual Motor dropped
$1,000, and I said …priorities, priorities…. Dual Motor won out.

A black Model 3 pulled up next to me at a stoplight. His window was open, so I rolled down
mine and asked him how he liked his car so far. He effused: “Had it since February with
zero problems – Love the quality, absolutely love the car!” Good sign. I saw no panel gaps
and he had the 19″ wheels too. I’m optimistic. My main concern was getting the tax credit,
as I previously had considered waiting for the $35,000-$40,000 version. I also am counting
on that quality issue – that pumping out 7,500 cars per week isn’t going to compromise
build quality.

So far – things are looking up.

Vexar

One of the main reasons I don’t want a newer Tesla is autopilot means almost nothing to a guy who loves to drive! Congratulations on your order. Just remember that incentive which is starting to expire is for early adopters to incentivise market growth in manufacturers producing electric vehicles.

Doggydogworld

Dual motor >>> Autopilot
Good choice

Seven Electrics

According to various Model 3 trackers, production was so low earlier in the month, I wonder if parts were being stockpiled to make this goal. Sustained output is what matters. We’ll know within a month or two.

My Model 3 has had some quality issues, and the doors and malfunctioning smartphone key drives me crazy, but is a genuine hoot to drive. Reminds me a bit of a WRX.

Rightofthepeople

Just curious 7-E, what kind of smartphone do you use? It seems most iphone users report few problems with the smartphone as key whereas android users tend to report more problems.

Nix

Twelve Electrics — Tesla shut down the factory at the end of May for 6 days of line upgrades. When the line came back up, initial run numbers were low as the validated the line upgrades.

Just like every car maker does when they have had a line down for updates. Which every single car maker does at least once a year.

You own zero Tesla’s.

Will

He owns a model 3. He has shown us several times on this blog and forum

Nix

Lol!! Funny hoke there will!!

Pushmi-Pullyu

He has shown photos of someone else’s Model 3, which he wants you to believe is his because he thinks that makes his anti-Tesla narrative more compelling.

Or do you really believe someone who says they have bought two Tesla cars despite telling everyone for years how awful they are?

Which set of lies are we supposed to believe?

ROFLOL

Ah,I feel for the owners of imaginary Tesla’s. Their minds just haunted by all the imaginary problems their imaginary ride is causing them!

ROFLOL!

Pushmi-Pullyu

Right. 22 Electrics’ imaginary Model 3 can have as many or as few problems as he imagines.

But just think of the money he’ll save by all the service those cars will receive being virtual rather than real! 😀

Steve

“Production has been in tents the past two weeks.”

Your application for Cheesy Punster has been received 🙂

CDAVIS

From article Tesla said: “Q2 production totaled 53,339 vehicles, a 55% increase from Q1…”
—————-

Likely Q3 will have a similar ~50%+ production increase from prior quarter putting Q3 production ~80,000.

Car sales are a zero-sum-game…

Would be interesting to know from where Tesla is taking those sales.

For sure some pain is starting to be felt somewhere…

philip d

Looks like BMW.

comment image:large

CDAVIS

@philip d said: “Looks like BMW.”
———————

@philip d,
That’s a very revealing graph… thanks for posting it. Looks like Mercedes also taking a good hit though not as dramatic as BMW.

What is the graph source? If solid source this graph is worthy an InsideEVs article!

Teslas twitter account posted it last month.

antrik

Source is shareholders meeting IIRC?

Doggydogworld

Graph is misleading. BMW sales shrank a little in the period. The others all grew. They lost “share”, but total sales increased.

CDAVIS

@Doggydogworld said: ”Graph is misleading…”
————-

The graph is not misleading… it’s intended to show relative market share change between the car makers over a period of time… it’s not meant to show change in units sold which often fluctuate cross the automotive industry due to seasonality, economic market conditions, tax rebate season, weather, and otherwise.

It’s possible to have an increase in sales while at the same time loosing relative market share and visa-versa.

If this graph does not have the traditional car makers and TSLA shorters loosing sleep from concern then blind fools are they…

floydboy

Congrats Tesla team! Awesome stuff.

floydboy

Over 15,000 cars in transit?! Jesus the lawnman, Q3 is gonna be nuts!

Kbm3

Maybe not. There may be nearly that many in transit next quarter also.

Doggydogworld

There will be more in transit on 9/30.

windbourne

I would be willing to bet that 200k was delivered on July 1 or 2.

David Green

by my math that is not 7000 cars produced in a week, and Elon’s tweet does not say 7000 cars in 7 days… “It says 7000 cars, 7 days”… there is a difference. Lets not get the car in front of the horse.

CDAVIS

@David Green said: “by my math…”
——————

Short-queeze math?

Pushmi-Pullyu

Reality denying, bubble-world math.

Scott Franco

Whatever happens, at least the whole 200,000 limit thing is over. Tesla can move full speed ahead now, and the idiots on SA who predicted the end of the credit would be the end of Tesla can go suck it.

Pushmi-Pullyu

What’s not over — what has barely begun — is the stages of grief posts from those who were counting on the full $7500 federal tax credit. I expect we’ll be seeing a lot of posts showing those stages over the next few weeks: Denial, anger, bargaining.

A few have already been posted in this discussion thread.

HVACman

From the Tesla press release:
“We expect that GA3 alone can reach a production rate of 5,000 Model 3s per week soon, but GA4 helped to get us there faster and will also help to exceed that rate.”

I’m confused. I was under the impression that GA2 was the original automated Model 3 assembly line and GA3 was a new parallel GA line added inside the factory to relieve bottleneck pressure. GA4 – the high-speed hand-build line – was recently added as yet another parallel line to further relieve bottlenecks. But I thought the original GA2 line was still operational and contributing the the assembly effort.

edit: Apparently I am not the only one confused: ValueAnalyst has a tweet regarding GA2

https://twitter.com/ValueAnalyst1/status/1013778244296953861

antrik

I was actually more confused when Elon said they are adding a “third GA line” for Model 3… My understanding so far was that GA1 and GA2 were Model S and Model X, and GA3 was Model 3. GA4 as additional Model 3 line would make perfect sense. Only the “third line” comment doesn’t fit.

One of the twitter replies suggests though that GA3 actually has two halves, which would resolve the confusion I guess.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Maybe whoever wrote that Tesla press release is confused, too! 🙂

Doggydogworld

The whole GA1/2/3/4 thing is a mess. I’ve been trying to figure it out for months.

Kbm3

What’s the problem? They have 3 Model 3 lines operative. Apparently GA3 is the highest performing. Remember > 10k is the goal. Maybe they’ll have downtime in GA2 to optimize and GA4 is temporary to help while the others are taken offline. Maybe GA4 will be packed and shipped to China eventually.

Another Euro point of view

Congratulations on the production numbers. For the short burn, it seems more efforts are needed.

Kbm3

Coming this weekend. Big news:)

Ron M

Tesla produced 53,339 EV in 2nd quarter or an average of 17,779 a month so it shouldn’t be surprising to hit 75,000 EV in 3rd quarter or an average of 25,000 a month.

William

Tesla supposedly missed their “Concensus” sales numbers, by a whopping 34% in Q2, according to the latest report from “SeethingAlpo”

Nix

That is what happens when shorters don’t know how to read the numbers on cars in transit. They make silly conclusions.

Pushmi-Pullyu

And there shall be a great cry throughout all the land of Seeking FUDsters, such as there was none like it, nor shall be like it any more.

(apologies to the First Westminster Company)

Will

So 28k for 3 months still underachieving but hopefully next Q they will be on a roll and the Base model start selling. They will get there money this q due to opening up the reservation ( $$$$$) so they will have some cash in hand

bro1999

Looks to be some market correction going on currently. After the initial morning pop, TSLA is now down 25 points from their morning high over doubts their ~5k/week 3 production rate is sustainable (duh).
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/02/tesla-drops-after-analyst-says-its-production-rate-is-not-sustainable.html

Seven Electrics

Tesla “started” the quarter producing just over 2,000 Model 3 units per week. In the end, the quarter “averaged” sales of 1,418 units per week. What is the credibility of a management that says they’re starting the quarter at just over 2,000 and will be growing to 5,000 by quarter end, but then delivers only 1,418 as an average for the quarter as a whole?

Benz

Tesla delivered more than 70,000 EV’s in the first half of 2018.

How many will Tesla deliver in the second half of 2018?

At the new 5k rate and higher since the goal is to reach 6k weekly, I expect the 3rd and 4th Qtr to be at minimum 60k Model 3 units each, while at the same time scaling back to two 8 hour shifts. Which would indicate more efficiency has been achieved.

Doggydogworld

They started with 4000+ S/X in transit, delivered only 22,300 vs 24,761 produced and ended with LESS than 4000 in transit.

Don Zenga

As usual, those media that spewed negative news about Tesla has published Tesla’s acheivements in the sidelines. Had Tesla come up with negative news, it should have hit their headlines. Shame on them for being so bad.

And what is our friend: Bob Lutz doing?
I will still appreciate him for launching Volt which is a great car though GM would like to sell it in lower volumes. Now with Model-3 sales increasing, GM recently increased the charging speed of Volt.

Prsnep

Imagine if every 2nd comment on a Tesla article was not about Tesla being in trouble or why people who say so are wrong. That’s the world I want to live in!