Tesla Produced Over 80,000 Model 3, Almost 40,000 In Last 2 Months

Tesla Model 3 Performance - Midnight Silver Tarmac Motion

AUG 31 2018 BY MARK KANE 95

Tesla’s cumulative Model 3 production now exceeds 80,000.

According to Bloomberg, cumulative production of Tesla Model 3, estimated through its VIN-tracking algorithm, is now above 80,000! Yes, we’re aware that the tracker is not entirely accurate, but it’s often close to actual.

The Tesla Model 3 Tracker indicates (as of August 31) 80,383 units produced, which means that more than 39,000 were made in the past two months (July and August). The current production rate, however, is just 4,588 weekly, which is not what we expected (as 5,000 should be the base with hopes to reach the goal of 6,000). This downturn could be tied to recently exposed paint issues.

Taking into consideration that at least 20,000 more Model 3 will be produced in September, Tesla will reach the milestone of 100,000 copies by the end of third quarter and 60,000 or 60% of those will be cars made within three months. That’s huge progress.

Production and deliveries of the Model 3 in previous quarters thus far:

  • 2017’Q3 – 260 produced, and 222 delivered
  • 2017’Q4 – 2,425 produced and 1,542 delivered
  • 2018’Q1 – 9,766 produced and 8,182 delivered
  • 2018’Q2 – 28,578 produced and 18,440 delivered
  • 2018’Q3 – already >39,354 produced

Tesla Model 3 Tracker (Source: Bloomberg)

Source: Tesla Model 3 Tracker

Categories: Tesla

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95 Comments on "Tesla Produced Over 80,000 Model 3, Almost 40,000 In Last 2 Months"

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Get Real

Can you say the leading Western EV manufacturer by far and certainly the leading EV manufacturer of compelling, long-range EVs in the world with an ecosystem to match.

This is what happens when you build up your capacity to reach true mass-production of such EVs and of course with true mass-production comes much faster lowering of unit costs.

Dima

It’s not yet that mass production. Companies like Toyota produce 215,000 cars a week.

Viking79

How many EVs does Toyota produce a week? The supply chains are substantially different so it won’t be easy for Toyota to ramp for a similar number of vehicles. They will face many issues that Tesla has already worked through, like battery supply issues, etc. It will take them a several years to ramp to a similar level Tesla is at. They already have the car part down, so that will be easier and they have revenue flow to get loans to get the money. The issue is they won’t commit that kind of cash as it is not what their investors want.

Miggy

Tesla is at number one spot in the Global EV sales.
http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2018/08/global-top-20-july-2018.html

David Green

for July, but how about #1 for the Year?

philip d

Yes for the year. Tesla is ahead of BYD for the year already. Nissan is just barely ahead by a couple thousand but only selling around 7000 a month worldwide so Tesla will pass them in September for 1st place in the World.

Greg

That’s not a good example, Toyota does know haw to make batteries and many other components used in EVs. At the same time they simply wouldn’t have paint problems or any production hell issues. On top of that they could add a small range extender for next to no cost and eliminate the need for fast changing network.

In some ways that’s part of their problem. They feel confident (or arrogant) they can catch up quickly. But the industry is full of examples were incumbents underestimated the rate of change or missed some key technological developments.

Vexar

You don’t understand that a range extender gives you very little. A gen 1 Volt makes more sense than an i3 Rex.

BroncoBet

If Toyota doesn’t make batteries then, neither does Tesla.

Robert Weekley

And because, similar to Honda, they are big on FCV vehicles!

Zachary Hafen

Do you consider the Nissan Altima and Nissan Sentra to not be mass production? Because the Model 3 is set to have more sales in the US in August than those two sedan models and claim its spot as the 5th best-selling sedan for the month. It’s aiming to be #1 by the end of the year, bypassing both the Toyota Corolla and Camry.

johnny mars

What happens when Tesla meets its reservations? Will the sales continue? Hard to say, unless they are offering the $35k car they promised. And they won’t be offering the Fed tax credit of $7500. like other some manufacturers still can. That will hurt sales, and has already caused reservation cancelations.

John

I’ve mentioned this before, but I don’t think the reservation list ever gets exhausted. Here’s why: rezzies drop off the list in exchange for a rolling advertisement. Tesla doesn’t advertise with commercials, they use their cars for word of mouth, and it’s always served them well. Every week, 5000-ish new advertisements hit the streets, ready to do their advertising job. And they then create new orders. There’s 360+ million people in America alone, another 700+ million in Europe. Massive un-tapped market, the least of Tesla’s problems are the folks who want their product.

That’s just my opinion.

BroncoBet

5K 3’s have never hit the streets in a week, read the numbers,28,386 in 11 months. Tesla has accomplished a wonderful thing with these 3 sales, but the fanboys always give ridiculous estimates.

John

I love folks like you, always keeping it negative and real. Honestly, I don’t give 2 shytes about the semantics between 3,000, 4,000, 5,000, whatever thousand. Means nothing. All I know is I saw 4-5 Model 3’s today. 2 months ago I couldn’t find one. They’re popping up all over. While you claim your “win” with whatever numbers you spew, Model 3’s, X’s, and S’s continue to be produced. Every day there’s more on the streets than yesterday. Every day. That’s my point.

For the record, re-read my post. I added an “ish” at the end of my number. It’s somewhere in the thousands, that much I know.

“Fanboy.” Get a new term. If you’re gonna stoop to labels, at least make it original. And have a great weekend.

antrik

Model S and X sales didn’t drop when they ran out of pre-reservations. No reason to think it will be different with Model 3.

Get Real

Yep, when you make a superior product and ecosystem your sales keep growing and by scaling your capabilities into the largest mass-production of compelling EVs you can also drop your unit costs to get to that $35,000 base Model 3.

Then see where demand goes through the roof even more.

BroncoBet

Except S and X have dropped like a rock.

Get Real

Read and weep, S and X occupy numbers 3 and 4 on the scorecard of EVs sold:
https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

terminaltrip421

but that’s EVs. if all we wanted was to compete with other EVs then yay! job well done. but I thought the point was to displace ICEs.

Rightofthepeople

Really? Last numbers I saw said Tesla delivered roughly 50k S & X combined in 2016, then 100k in 2017. And they are on pace to deliver 100k in 2018 while at the same time delivering another 100k+ Model 3s. So S & X sales doubled from 2016 to 2017 and will be roughly flat in 2018. How is that dropping like a rock?

Get Real

Maybe on mars, here on Earth not so much but nice try!

Vexar

Yeah, good question. They may have to start doing advertising or something. I can’t imagine demand softening globally. Too many of your friends and relatives are thrilled about theirs. And they talk. The enemy of Tesla demand is the “big truck/big SUV” market. The (I met someone who said this) I-haul-a-two-horse-trailer types, who do that once a year and brag about it otherwise.

BroncoBet

Tesla,according to these numbers ,sold 28,386 3’s through Q2,they have 12,386 cars in inventory, they are either defective or they have a demand problem.

Rightofthepeople

Or maybe they have a logistics and delivery problem. It’s one thing to produce all those vehicles, it’s quite another to deliver them. Tesla is still learning the finer points of being a mass market auto producer. Can’t make an omelet without breaking a few eggs.

Dima

Nissan doesn’t produce just one line of cars. It’s closing in on a rate of production of 5 million cars per year.

antrik

How many lines they have has nothing to do with whether any individual line is mass-produced or not.

philip d

All of Porsche AG is now making less cars weekly than Tesla. Is Porsche not a mass production company?

johnny mars

No, rather a boutique company. They don’t offer economy cars at all.

Dom

Porsche can’t sell their cars in Europe right now. And it’s the 3 Rd month in a row. Their motors don’t meet the new regulations. So they can’t be homologated (approved by the state). Volkswagen only has three! Motors that passed the tests!!!

trackdaze

For reference Toyota are selling well over 1million hybrids per year and over 50,000 plug ins. So over 25k per week.

Its probably well placed to transition to electric once it settles on battery technology.

antrik

Plug-less hybrids have tiny batteries. (And most of them haven’t even moved to Li-Ion yet…) They will still have to build up a supply chain for large batteries pretty much from scratch when they finally decide to offer BEVs. This will take some years to get to serious scale…

Pushmi-Pullyu

You’re claiming that somewhere around 5500 cars per week (just for the Model 3, not counting the MS and MX) isn’t “mass production”? Just how far are you going to move the goal posts before you stop?

Tesla is mass producing three models of cars. Now, if you want to argue that a car which is partially hand-built, like a Rolls-Royce or a Lamborghini, isn’t really “mass production” despite the fact that they are made from mass produced parts on a production line, then you might possibly have an argument, even if it’s not a very strong one.

But to claim that Tesla hasn’t yet started mass producing cars… well, that’s not merely an outlier opinion, it’s factually incorrect.

Get Real

And wishful thinking for some reason(s).

BroncoBet

Tesla has produced a wonderful amount of 3’s,fantastic job, yet they are at half the production rate predicted by its fans.

Pluto

This year alone they’ll produce as many Model 3’s as the first four years of Model S production.

Dima

They’re finally this quarter starting to enter the market in substantial numbers.

ch

YEA lose more $$$

philip d

You did? Should have bought stock.

Pushmi-Pullyu

If you’ll stop shorting TSLA stock, then you won’t lose as much. 😉

David Green

If you believe this, prepare to be disappointed in a month when the real numbers are released… Tesla is still below 73K model 3’s produced, and Bloombergs Tom Randall explains why the tracker is so high in his latest post dated Aug 6th.

Get Real

I’m not disappointed in any way, shape or form that Tesla has reached true mass-production (just look at the EV scoreboard) of compelling EVs before the laggard, legacy OEMs.

Of course I don’t have the same agenda.

David Green

My only agenda is the truth… I do not like hype of misinformation, no matter what the subject is.

Ron M

Your a troll that actually just hates Tesla now because it’s the leader in EV. If another manufacturer was the leader you would hate them too.

David Green

Ron… That is a silly statement… I do not even hate tesla, just in the last week I have talked to friends about buying their cars, and helped them gather information.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Yeah, that’s why you make coal-rolling posts on other forums, bragging about how successful you are at trolling Tesla fans. You do all that just to show us all how much you love EVs and how you “really” hope Tesla succeeds, right? 🙄

Well, you hide it pretty well.

David Green

Wrong as usual PuPu, can you show me this rolling coal comment you and Nix imagine I posted?

Who was right on production? Fred Lambert gave up to the minute number on his podcast today, Looks like my numbers were right there, he also one into detail that there have not been any 5K or 6K weeks since the last week of June… Told ya!

antrik

Haven’t watched the podcast (the one time I did it was way too boring): but IIRC in the article he acknowledged that they reached ~5,000 occasionally over a 7-day window — which is more relevant than calender weeks IMHO.

Get Real

You can’t handle the truth!

Chris O

No your agenda is FUD to further an agenda of shorting TSLA, nothing to do with truth.

Some Guy

I think that Bloombergs weekly numbers are somewhat made up, as there is noone outside Tesla knowing the truth. Their quarterly numbers so far heve proven to be rather precise, though. Whether they deviate or not will be revealed first week of October.
BTW: How is the construction business doing? Given the frequency, timing and length of your postings on this and other EV related sites, and considering the time required for actually reading the articles and some of the comments you reply to, you seem to put in as many hours as a certain CEO, if not more, but in your case solely for the commenting activities. Is it that easy to own a successful construction business nowadays?
Too bad that the postings are only listed with an xxx minutes ago, would be much more fun to have a timestamp to make a computerized data analysis with a few nice plots of activity per hour of the day, the results would surely by revealing…

David Green

Bloomberg has made correction to their total numbers in the days leading up to the end of Q1, and Q2, Q2 was adjusted by 4500, and I think a similar adjustment will need to be made on Q3…

Construction is going well, but we are starting to see a market wide slowdown. I have lots of free time, as I manage the company, and spend several hours a day reading about EV’s, and also have a group of EV nerd friends that point me to the articles that are interesting. My posts are either factual or they are not… You are welcome to challenge the accuracy of anything I post, and I will respond.

BroncoBet

The relentless harassment by Tesla management and fans of anyone who does not have true religion is disgusting, and it sometimes obscures the great work they are doing in the sustainable transport business.
I find this article so strange,Bloomberg numbers are not very good, yet they are referenced, while the best numbers come from this very website! If you add them up you have a large unsold inventory.

philip d

I’m certainly not going to be ringing my hands either way. Stepping back to see the forest, who cares. There is a ramping trend that is heading where they want to be. The important thing is which other major automaker is producing even 60-70k long range EVs a year with a continuing ramp up? That is far from disappointing.

It’s not like Magna Steyr will be producing 200,000 iPaces a year anytime soon. Now that is a disappointment. “Jaguar, a British brand owned by an Indian company, will use a Canadian-owned contract manufacturer to build full-electric crossovers in Austria.”

David Green

I think this funny when the posters reply to me with a comparison that always goes back to I-Pace, are there any mature adults in the room? This discussion is not about Jaguar, Magna, or what country the car is built in… I simple stated that the tracker is inaccurate, as Fred on another Tesla biased website commented earlier in the week… I think Tesla intentionally leaked that info to Fred, to soften the expectation, so there is not a huge disappointment on the miss at the end of the qtr… Fred stated at that point in time, Tesla has made slightly less then 30K in Q3 so far, and that was with 5 weeks to go in the qtr.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“…are there any mature adults in the room?”

Why, does your nappy need changing?

philip d

I like how certain posters feign ignorance and surprise when other posters call out their obvious and very persistent campaign against a very specific EV maker. And their constant comparison to another EV that said poster is forever bragging about buying and waiting for delivery as well as extolling its superiority in business model and execution of aesthetics and build.

So some posters like to poke fun at said poster who does this by commenting with hyperbole after his posts to show this poster how exhausting and absurd it is that he trolls the comments after all the articles about this one specific EV maker.

I read many articles on the iPace and will even peruse the comments but I dont spend an enormous amount of time and make dozens of negative comments about its shortcoming on each and every single article about it. The same goes for other automaker’s EVs.

antrik

It’s funny to see you complaining about others bringing in unrelated issues, considering how that’s one of your own favourite trolling tactics 🙂

Get Real

Ironic isn’t it?

Just shows that people with overwhelmingly negative agendas on Tesla here have no real honor to stand on

Chris O

The guy is a spectacular hypocrite.

BroncoBet

I wouldn’t call him a hypocrite, he’s short Tesla stock, and he states facts about Tesla,yes,he’s not going to stay a fact that is positive about Tesla,only negative ones, but there are so many Tesla fans that that space is already taken.
Tesla deserves mad props for the model 3,GM has earned some rocks thrown at it. We’ll see competition coming, but Tesla remains in the lead in this small, but rapidly growing, segment.

Billy Gomes

at the very least, Tesla is maintaining 3,900 vehicles a week, meaning every day around 550 people stop contributing tail pipe emissions. if they stayed at 187,200 per year they would still be producing atleast 8x their closest competition, the chevy bolt which did 23k last year and may do even less this year.

Viking79

You might be right, but either way if it is between 73,000 and 80000 thousand you are only looking at a +/-5% difference from a value of 76,500. Irrelevant.

Get Real

Not irrelevant to desperate shorters grasping at straws it seems.

Pushmi-Pullyu

ROTFLMAO!
😆 😆 😆

Your posts claiming that Tesla’s production is actually dropping are becoming a running joke on InsideEVs, Mr. “Green”.

Please do continue to keep us entertained!

antrik

Yeah, it’s been becoming increasingly clear that the Bloomberg estimation is tracking too high over the past weeks — considering that it would be significantly above Tesla’s own guidance for the quarter. The low trend data seems to suggest that it’s correcting now… So maybe it won’t be too far off by the end of the quarter.

systemBuilder

A colleague at work just received VIN 101,xxx. You’re a clown, admit it.

Taylor Marks

On Monday (August 27th), Fred Lambert (Electrek) said he had reliable inside sources that told him that only 30K Model 3 had been built between July 1st and August 24th.

Assuming they managed another 4-5K in the week since, they’re closer to 34-35K this quarter and 75K since the first cars were build 14 months ago.

David Green’s 73K is likely closer to the truth than Bloomberg’s 80K.

Which isn’t to say this is bad. Just saying people need to reign their expectations in just a bit.

Yep. Very true. As we’ve said from the beginning, the Bloomberg model is not perfect, and especially not accurate over a short time. However we’ve continyed to share the data that they publish as a reference point. Our delivery numbers are much more accurate. Also, for those with the time to sift through tons of data on the internet, you’ll probably be able to get a much more accurate production number.

David Green

Agree… Steven you guys are the masters on deliveries… How is Aug looking? My estimate was a range of 15-19K, and the number was 18K, but with recent events delivery delays etc, I am thinking I might be a bit high?

Haha, thanks. We never divulge our numbers ahead of time. But, as you look around the internet, you’ll learn (as I’m certain you already have) that your numbers here are on target with much of what is being shared around. Stay tuned for next week!

BroncoBet

Wow, those are really poor numbers.

david

How are delivery bottlenecks looking? Some re-organizing of delivery management structure I read recently.

https://insideevs.com/tesla-hires-improve-delivery-experience/

Tesla is surely working on it. We’ll know next week exactly how deliveries are working out.

Stanislav

I don’t know why you or electrek even mention Bloomberg tracker, and write stories about it. Troys tracker is much much better, and it offers more data. It’s like everyone hate Troy, don’t know about his tracker, or have some “deal” with Bloomberg?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSkckurdmbXt5Bh4dVenUhsjoal1Y6qRIkFBG_tcOhTxGp6xUL5j8DqkMPY0K9TfOCDz83A_7HGcQCl/pubhtml?gid=742297099#

We are friends with Troy and follow him. We thank him on Twitter. We use his data as part of our estimates for the scorecard. We’ve said repeatedly that the Bloomberg Tracker is not necessarily accurate on the short term. However, we published a story about it when it came out and have been following it and publishing updates on it ever since. We don’t do business with Bloomberg. It is just more estimates as another piece of the puzzle for perspective. Troy is the man!

Stanislav

Thanks on clarification. Now when I think better i remember Troy mentioning Insideevs and telling that you guys do great job. Why I am mad at Bloomberg tracker articles (i think teslarati also made one) is because of those articles, and that tracker some part of readers will think that tesla will produce 70k model 3s in Q3 and then when Tesla tell the real number is 50-55 (as they announced) maybe 60, they will see that as a bad thing. Just don’t upp the expectations too much.

BroncoBet

Neat,I do like Troy.

BroncoBet

This was a funny article, you reference Bloomberg ,which is inaccurate, when you yourself are the expert in Teslas actually delivered, ie paid for. When are August numbers being printed? We eagerly anticipate.

Wednesday

philip d

That’s going to boost the InsideEVs scorecard next month!

Bonaire

Bloomberg estimator is not a true indicator of factory throughput. Hopefully everyone knows this.

BroncoBet

It’s garbage as this article points out,Troy tracker and this site and Tesla own numbers ,are the way to go.

Ziv

As production of the model 3 goes up, interest in shorting Tesla drops, slightly. This week Amazon passed Tesla as the most shorted company in America.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Tesla isn’t always the #1 most shorted stock. But it often is.

Yeah, the roar of anti-Tesla FÜD seems to have died down a bit recently. Those FÜDsters who were panicking over Tesla being taken private, sadly, no longer have any reason to panic…. or at least not to panic over that. 🙁

David Green

Actually short interest drops as a stock drops, its natural, people like me who do not think Tesla will go BK want to take our profits and run…

Roy_H

I have only recently been watching Bloomberg’s Model 3 Tracker. I must admit I don’t follow how they get their data very well. First it seems to be primarily based on newly registered VINs, which is public and because it is batch oriented, is (I assume) well averaged out for this purpose, complete with a suitable delay. The rest, however is much more questionable as it depends on voluntary submission of VIN numbers by customers. I feel that as time goes on, fewer people will be interested in providing this information. The last VIN registration shown was August 19 and last voluntary VIN submissions posted on August 22. Last Sunday they posted this weeks’ production at 4,833 per week and has remained unchanged since. Previous week 6,278. I look at the lack of new voluntary VINs and wonder if the data simply hasn’t been updated or did people suddenly stop reporting (I think the former). So has it dropped ~1,400 because it just hasn’t been maintained? Or because of additional input not explained?

Pushmi-Pullyu

InsideEVs staff have said that Bloomberg doesn’t actually try to make its production “tracker” accurate on a week-to-week basis, but only on a long-term basis; averaging out the weekly errors over time. I presume they know of what they speak. So it’s rather amusing seeing people get all excited about what the last week or two shows on their graph, either up or down.

I agree with those who say that Bloomberg shouldn’t even call it a production “tracker”, because it’s more properly a production estimator.

Stanislav

We built our own model to estimate weekly output of the car that could make or break Elon Musk’s master plan.

That is first sentence at their site written in big bolded letters!
Their tracker is useless, Troys is much better.

rey

Oh no! somebody call Anton Wahlman and warn him, and the SHORTS! the short burn of the century is coming!

Just_Chris

20,000 per month is exactly what I expected – I think people assume magic happens at Tesla. This is a new supply chain, new company and new factory. The best thing Tesla can do right now is build and sell cars. In a couple months they can start adding shifts and increasing production. In Few months more they can spend money building more factory and hiring more people. IMO Right now too slow is better than too fast.

systemBuilder

I know of a colleague at work with a VIN of 101,xxx.

Jeff

Contrary to previous comments, Tesla has not sustained 5000 cars per week since their one near miss at the end of Q2 when they made 5000 in 1 week and 5 hrs.

Next question, will Tesla be profitable in Q3? We’ll wait and see.

Speculawyer

The Electrek guys say that the Bloomberg numbers are not very accurate. I tend to agree with them. I think Bloomberg is overstating production a bit.

Rightofthepeople

This is welcome news, no matter the final number. Hopefully this means I am closer to getting my Model 3 soon. Ordered 9 weeks and 2 days ago, and have a Sept thru Nov delivery window. Can’t wait to fill up my current ride with gas for the very last time!