Tesla Model 3 Production Pushing Towards 4,000 Per Week

Red Tesla Model 3

MAY 14 2018 BY STEVEN LOVEDAY 59

Perhaps the Tesla Model 3 production line is actually ahead of schedule for the first time, at least based on public perceptions?

Yes, it looks like Telsa Model 3 production is going to hit 4,000 cars per week. According to bkmxp100d on Tesla Motors Club (via Teslarati), inside information from a claimed Fremont factory worker points to huge numbers as of late. Tesla shut down Model 3 production for a brief time recently to assure forward momentum and it looks like the plan worked.

 Related: Musk Says Tesla Model 3 Production Target Is 6,000 A Week By June

The report says that Tesla has been able to build 4,290 Model 3s in seven days and bursts of some 638 cars inside of 24 hours times. While we don’t want to inundate you with daily Model 3 production estimates and VIN registrations, if true, this is big news for Tesla and the segment as a whole.

This falls in line with ramp up estimates based on Bloomberg’s Model 3 tracker, as well as other inside sources reporting on the Tesla Model 3 Owners Club forum and other related social media groups and forums.

Further, Teslarati reportedly solidified the dates for the next upcoming Model 3 scheduled shutdown: May 26-May 27.

Moreover, Musk noted in the recent earnings call that peak progress is already extrapolated to hit some 5,000 Model 3s per week. He stated per Teslarati:

“The thing I’m most excited about is the rapid increase in output. We got just in the last 24 hours at the Gigafactory managed to achieve a sustained rate of over 3,000 packs per day – sorry, per week, and actually reached a peak hour with extrapolated outward would be a rate of about 5,000 cars per week.

We also saw enormous improvement in zone four of module production. This, I should point out, is a fully automated zone, and we’re able to also achieve sustained rates of 3,000 vehicles a week. So, we’re actually slightly ahead in factory module and pack production than expected. And with some work at the Fremont vehicle plant, primarily in the general assembly area, I’m confident we will very soon exceed the 3,000 mark in Fremont.”

In a recent Tweet reply to Ars Technica, Musk complimented the publication’s article and went on to say that Tesla is working to get past production issues and bottlenecks, which Ars compared to GM’s struggles in the past.

Source: Teslarati

Categories: Tesla

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59 Comments on "Tesla Model 3 Production Pushing Towards 4,000 Per Week"

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Nix
Guest
Nix

4,290 TM3’s in one week? That is around as many as Tesla’s closest 2 pure EV competitors have sold in the US all year so far! that is closing in quickly on BMW 3 Series US sales monthly numbers!

James
Guest
James

OMG and it’s more than Rolls Royce annual sales

SansIce
Guest
SansIce

The numbers are startling. People are so fixated on previous projections that they don’t understand how huge this is for EVs as a whole. It is looking like after all of the years of build up the model 3 domination is going perform as promised. It is a great car and production numbers are rising. Demand is extremely high. This is getting good – break open the popcorn haters. I am seeing 2 or 3 up here in Seattle every day now.

Dave
Guest
Dave

Unfortunately this is not real… They have not hit 3K produced in 7 days yet…

7ond
Guest
7ond

What are your arguments and sources for this statement? Because if they seem more valid than the sources, this articles statements are based on, I might believe you.

Dave
Guest
Dave

Musk stated this AM, they are likely to get to 500 per day this week… Thats a good enough source for me.

BenG
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BenG

Do you have a link to that statement?

Chris O
Guest
Chris O

Title article on Electrek today: “Tesla Model 3 production to ‘likely exceed’ 500 cars per day this week, says Elon Musk”

Dave86
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Dave86

4000 per week is 200K per year! This fabulous news.

Hopefully Model 3 does to the market place at its price point what Model S did at its price point.

Elon says 6000 per week inn June? How cool!

Paul Stoller
Guest
Paul Stoller

I believe Tesla will hit their 6000 a month target but I think they might run into problems hitting 10k per month at Fremont they would be like 600,000 per year when you add in S and X. Getting much over 400,000 consistently could be an issue. NUMMI I don’t think ever did much more thank 450,000 and that was for short periods I don’t think they ever sustained production at much more than 400,000. And Tesla is also making a ton of parts on site there and GM/Toyota mainly did just assembly.

Dave86
Guest
Dave86

Thanks, Paul, for the info.

The comment about Tesla making their own parts is very, very, interesting. Is it because they are specific to electric cars, or is it because Tesla is trying to protect itself from “foul play”?

6000 per week translates to 300K per year, and to do that with a $35K+ car, one has to believe that would put a lot of pressure on the rest of the industry. That’s taking dead aim at Lexus, Acura, Audi, BMW, etc. Tesla is becoming “very disruptive”.

menorman
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menorman

Tesla has brought a lot of production in-house that was previously done by suppliers after they couldn’t deliver what Tesla wanted.

Scott Franco
Guest
Scott Franco

Tesla/Elon believes in vertical manufacturing. That’s why they did the Gigafactory. Vertical is a good match if you are making a car like nobody else is, its a bad match if you ARE making cars similar to everyone else.

Nix
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Nix

Paul — Tesla has greatly expanded Fremont, and with all the permits that have already been approved, and all the construction already complete, Fremont will be double the square footage as NUMMI ever was.

Paul Stoller
Guest
Paul Stoller

Do you have a source for the square footage claim, I’m aware Tesla bought as much of the area around NUMMI that they could, but it was my understanding even that amount was limited. I didn’t think there was was anywhere near the amount of space for them to double the footprint.

Pushmi-Pullyu
Guest
Pushmi-Pullyu

Yeah, I find that very questionable too. Looking at aerial shots of the Fremont plant and its immediate surroundings, I don’t see how it would be physically possible to double the footprint unless they tear up the streets around the factory!

In fact, on the latest investor relations call, Elon said the Fremont plant was “stuffed to the gills” and that it would be impossible to put Model Y production there. That’s one of the reasons why Tesla is now planning for a new auto assembly plant in China (and possibly another in Europe, too).

Nix
Guest
Nix

Well, to be fair you questioned the original story when it was published in 2016 too:

https://insideevs.com/teslas-new-fremont-factory-plan-double-size/

The China factory has no connection to any Model 3 or Model Y cars that will be delivered outside of Pacific Rim nations. Tesla will need another factory for the Y on top of the China factory. The expansion of Fremont is just for Model 3 production.

Nix
Guest
Nix

Paul, here is the source about the doubling of Fremont dating way back to 2016. It is all available here in the archives right here are insideev’s:

https://insideevs.com/teslas-new-fremont-factory-plan-double-size/

Since then you can actually see in the latest fly-over videos posted here at insideev’s that they have already completed some of the buildings in the plans, and have already broken ground on other buildings in the plan. If you aren’t satisfied with that, you can also get the zoning permits and confirm for yourself.

Nix
Guest
Nix

Dave86 — You have to read the details. The 6000 by the end of June is just a burst test, not sustained rate.

Robert Weekley
Guest
Robert Weekley

Burst in June, Regular by July-August!
😀

Miggy
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Miggy

just start building it in RHD and get on with it.

M Hovis
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M Hovis

” While we don’t want to inundate you with daily Model 3 production estimates and VIN registrations, if true, this is big news for Tesla and the segment as a whole.”
Not at all Steve, this is good stuff. Unlike endless dragstrip videos, getting a handle on Model 3 production is paramount. I always look forward to IEVs monthly reports, obsessing over the individual totals, the overall totals, but most of all, I look forward now to the Model 3 and will so for years to come. I also think about Jay Cole snickering to himself as he goes to sleep knowing that the someone on the IEV staff is still gathering data!

Pushmi-Pullyu
Guest
Pushmi-Pullyu

“Unlike endless dragstrip videos, getting a handle on Model 3 production is paramount.”

I second that! I would much, much rather see more articles like this one rather than yet more Tesla drag race videos. (Yes, yes I know… the drag race videos attract traffic to the site!)

Robert Weekley
Guest
Robert Weekley

Tesla Model 3 Drag Race, towing a BMW 340i, while Racing a 340i, will be good to see, when the Performance Model 3 is out, though! 😀😳😂

darth
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darth

Sometimes ARS Technica is annoying. Comparing automation today to what GM tried over 30 years ago is ridiculous. Compute power has expanded a millionfold since then. Why not compare driver assist systems today to ones from 30 years ago? Oh yeah, there were none.

Nix
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Nix

This actually is not that surprising since they just added another full shift of production.

Dave
Guest
Dave

Model 3 has been 24/7 since at least February

Nix
Guest
Nix

Nope. Check the archives here at insideev’s. The move to 24/7 was just announced recently.

Dave
Guest
Dave

Nope… I have a friend at the factory… Its been 24/7 (Elon Stated in the earnings call “all Tesla operations are 24/7”) Inside EV has lots of BS, Like this… they are still under 3K in the last 7 days… Just the facts… Maybe shoot for 500 per day this week….

Dave
Guest
Dave

I highly doubt this report, if they were at 4000 or even 3000, and with the stock tanking today, Elon would be all over twitter… Even 2500 would be seen as an accomplishment… Bloomberg uses Vin Registrations as the basis of their reporting, Tesla has obviously skewed the chart with massive Vin registration… Lets see the deliveries report…

menorman
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menorman

Elon doesn’t really care all that much about the stock price.

Dave
Guest
Dave

Elon does not care about stock price?? Are you stoned? he has several billion dollars borrowed against his Tesla shares, and if the Stock price drops too much it could force a margin call on his shares…. Don’t you read the 10Q? It details that very clearly…

Pushmi-Pullyu
Guest
Pushmi-Pullyu

Dave said:

“I highly doubt this report…”

How is the track record for your endless Tesla bashing, Dave? Maybe 1-2% accurate at best… 98-99% wrong?
🙄

Not quite good enough to guarantee that if you say so, it can’t be true. But getting close!

Dave
Guest
Dave

Looks like I was right again… Elon stated today they are likely to hit 500 a day this week… That means all the 4k plus last week was BS…

John
Guest
John

This should make a few shorters nervous..

Dave
Guest
Dave

I think the shorters had a party today…

Robert Marston
Guest
Robert Marston

Looks like another buying opportunity to me.

Chris O
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Chris O

I’m sure every day is a party for shorters that can accurately predict small dips. Since billions are lost shorting Tesla stock that doesn’t seem easy though.

Testa
Guest
Testa

Actually, to be 100% accurate, the source was giving an update from “Freemont”.

Don Zenga
Guest
Don Zenga

Don’t believe in speculation. Still they may not sell all in USA until July for the 200,000 limit.
Tesla already sold 183,000+ vehicles and they should sell only another 17,000 vehicles in May and June to stay within the limit.

But I hope the Model-3 will be sold in Canada, Europe & China.

Robert Marston
Guest
Robert Marston

Given the size of the preorder pool, Tesla could probably sell 1,000 to 1,500 per week to the Canadian Market no sweat.

Robert Marston
Guest
Robert Marston

The model 3 is fulfilling Tesla’s promise of mass vehicle electrification. It is happening far faster than anyone would have guessed even just two years ago. If these reports bear out, and adding in S and X Tesla would be producing 6,000 BEVs per week or north of 300,000 per year. That’s insane. By summer it could be 8k per week and 400,000 per year. This year, Tesla could beat the nearest EV competitor by x2 on EV volume alone. High end to mid range ICE sales are in trouble.

Asak
Guest
Asak

Musk needs to remove the word “extrapolated” from his vocabulary. When I read that now I just think BS. No one cares about burst rates, it’s about sustained production rates.

Nix
Guest
Nix

It would need to be removed from the entire manufacturing industry first, because this is how lines are tested, with burst tests.

Pushmi-Pullyu
Guest
Pushmi-Pullyu

Okay, but do other auto makers brag in public about their burst rate by extrapolating it to a weekly or monthly rate?

Perhaps they do, but I certainly haven’t noticed anybody except Elon talking about that. Seems to me that should be for internal discussions only. Citing burst rates in public statements comes across as hype to me.

EVShopper
Guest
EVShopper

Hype=marketing=free advertising

Dave
Guest
Dave

Other automakers rarely talk about production rate, because they set and reach their targets, and usually on time.

Nix
Guest
Nix

That is because they rarely build clean sheet designs. They just tweak an existing chassis and use a ton of parts out of existing cars.

Much easier than what Tesla is doing with the TM3.

Dave
Guest
Dave

You mean like Cadillac CT6 last year? All up clean sheet design… No production hell…

Nix
Guest
Nix

You mean the same CT6 that the most common trim level uses an engine based off of a 2004 design? And a transmission that was first debuted in 2014 that was actually based off of a 2007 design (which was in turn based on a a line of transmissions that date back to 1982)? Is that what you think a clean sheet is? That is the exact opposite of clean sheet design.

Scott Franco
Guest
Scott Franco

My production estimator is the number of Model 3’s I see on my commute each day, about 20 miles through the heart of Silicon Valley. I am up to about 3 per day each way (work and back) for about 6 per day. The interesting thing is most of them have new car plates, which means they were manufactured within 1 to 3 weeks ago.

A month ago it was about 1 per trip. They are flooding the valley with these cars.

Pushmi-Pullyu
Guest
Pushmi-Pullyu

“According to bkmxp100d on Tesla Motors Club (via Teslarati), inside information from a claimed Fremont factory worker points to huge numbers as of late.”

Well I hope that’s true, but anonymous “insider” posts to social media, even TMC, do not qualify as a credible source. This should be treated as just a rumor.

Robert Weekley
Guest
Robert Weekley

638/Day × 7 days = 4,466 per week
(Burst Rate -> Extrapolated)! Nice!

Tim Miser
Guest
Tim Miser

So it wouldn’t be a stretch to see 12,000 M3’s on next month’s scorecard? I’ll believe it when I see it.

JJG
Guest
JJG

Considering the scorecard is deliveries and also US only I don’t see your point. Deliveries are 2-4 weeks out from production and Canada is starting to receive a large number of the configs now.

BenG
Guest
BenG

Yeah, and especially if Tesla manipulates US sales to push the tax credit trigger to the start of quarter, the US sales could be grossly under-representative for a while.

James P Heartney
Guest
James P Heartney

Even if they could only sustain 3000/wk, they’d surpass world production of Nissan Leafs in two years. At 6000/wk they do it in one year.

At 3000/wk they surpass Chevy Bolt sales in 10 months. At 5000/wk they surpass Bolt sales in 6 months.

And this is with every car they produce pre-sold. At full asking price.

BenG
Guest
BenG

Here’s a story on Musk’s recent comments saying they are likely to exceed 500 cars per day this week: https://electrek.co/2018/05/15/tesla-model-3-production-500-per-day-elon-musk/ .

So seems like he’s saying they are approaching sustainable 3500/week, and the earnings call comments indicate they are at 3000/week sustained … it’s behind the optimistic projections of a year ago, but WOW, Tesla is building and selling a TON of killer EVs, selling at ~$50k+. If they just kept this up it would be a crushing success, so long as you’re not measuring against the prior expectations based on ‘blue-sky’ optimistic projections.

We’re talking about CURRENT build and sale rate of 3,000/week, 13,000/month, 150,000 per year (with some minor downtime). That is a big number for a sedan priced to compete with BMW, Audi and Mercedes Benz, far more than BMW sells 3 series in the US. And the projections that they will get to 5,000/week sustainable this year are starting to look very credible.

The dream of Tesla building and selling more than 200,000 Model 3s per year is looking increasingly likely to be reality next year. That is a game changer that vaults Tesla to the top of the sport-luxury sedan market.

SJC
Guest
SJC

Considering they still produce Model S and X, that is impressive.