Tesla Model 3 Production Details From Insider, Thousands To be Delivered End Of July

4 months ago by Eric Loveday 98

Tesla Model 3 first deliveries confirmed for July

Several thousand Tesla Model 3s are expected to be ready for delivery by the end of July.

Tesla Model 3

Tesla Model 3 “release candidates” hint at upcoming color choices for July configurator release

That’s according to an inside source that’s been accurate several times in the past.

Model 3 Owners Club reports:

“July is going to surprise a lot of people and especially Wall Street, as the production line is just about ready and will start production ASAP so that several THOUSAND Model 3s are produced and stockpiled for deliveries at the end of July.”

“This confirms what the source relayed to me back in February, namely keeping configs simple so they could make preconfigured cars instead of relying on custom configs. Later on when production ramps up in the 4th quarter more options could be added to the mix.”

We knew deliveries would begin in July, but the “several thousand” statement is new to us.

However, it’s still believed that Tesla will likely host a ceremonial handover of just a few Model 3s to certain individuals prior to starting delivery of these thousands of EVs.

Source: Model 3 Owners Club

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98 responses to "Tesla Model 3 Production Details From Insider, Thousands To be Delivered End Of July"

  1. floydboy says:

    Here we go!

    1. Cavaron says:

      So “short squeeze part 2” is comming?

    2. Texas FFE says:

      Prepare to be disappointed.

      1. Nix says:

        Texas FFUD — I think everybody is prepared to hear about delays. It is just a matter of how long the delays will be, and how much impact they will have on deliveries.

        On the other hand, are you prepared for the point where the delays are over, and Model 3’s come flying out the factory by the thousands?

        1. Erik says:

          It honestly seems like they’re going to do this on time. Either they’ve actually figured out how long it will take them to get something to market, or they did what GE did and built a few extra months into the schedule. They promised 2nd half 2017 deliveries last year, then moved it to July. We’ve seen enough on the road already to know that they’re being build with at least some tempo – so let’s say sales-intent ones go into production the last couple days of June. That gives Tesla the ability to only produce 500/week, and still sell “thousands” – in this case, literally 2000 – in July. Especially if they’re keeping with what they said about previous owners and employees getting Model 3s first – getting people to take delivery at the factory won’t be that hard.

      2. paul smith says:

        YOU prepare.

  2. R.S says:

    So they will actually start production now, keep them in some storage facility, for up to a month, just to deliver the first thousand units to Tesla and Space X employees?

    That seems a bit unnecessary.

    1. georgeS says:

      They already cranked out 200. That surprised a lot of people.

      Now they are going to 5 times that many and get them out for production testing to Tesla employees.

      It doesn’t sound unreasonable to me.

      1. georgeS says:

        continued:

        What does sound unreasonable is calling these cars “production” cars.

        Yes they are coming off the production line supposedly with production parts delivered in July but these cars have not been fully tested. As far as I know they are “production” validation” cars that employees payed for.

        I don’t buy that they have already been secretly tested and fully validated.

        1. R.S says:

          The thing I don’t buy is that they would keep them at some storage site, just to deliver a bigger amount of cars at once.

          Especially since those deliveries will be to their own employees.

          1. Well, when they ship a load to China, they don’t send them there five or ten by a truck, so they do have a space to set up a large load for delivery by ship, so they would have the room to park them, until the day of the delivery party, or whatever, then insert the Sold Signs into each car, a few hours ahead of the delivery!

            1. Nix says:

              Shipping to another country by boat is actually already solved for all car companies. The ports have large secure storage lots where they store cars in protective car covers while they wait for their ship to come in.

              It is really domestic deliveries that will be the difficult challenge for them. For maximum efficiency, they will want to cluster deliveries on the same trucks and trains to the same sales locations. Volume ICE car companies have the same problem.

          2. Josh Bryant says:

            Most likely pen them so if an issue is discovered in production, they can fix it at the factory. There is going to be issues when they first start cranking them out.

            Look at the Pacifica Hybrid for example.

            1. JeremyK says:

              Right, and that’s from an experienced auto manufacturers that most likely followed a proper testing/validation schedule. Kudos to Tesla for pushing the envelope, but I highly doubt that they will “get away with it”.

              1. Trolly says:

                They will say it is a beta car…too bad it will be financed for most suckers

          3. Steve says:

            I see what you’re saying, but perhaps you’re imagining that they push a button a BOOM, a car pops out. I don’t think its a case where a car is being built today and it sits in a warehouse for a month. They’re building thousands of cars, not necessarily completing even one today, tomorrow, etc. And just like any product, they don’t come off the assembly line and are directly handed to a customer (though that would be efficient!). There’s always some sort of staging/warehousing that goes on while other parts of the system are put in place. Being this close to “launch”, even if they were sitting in a warehouse for a month that seems appropriate. Even advantageous because then they can appear to be really moving from Day 1.

          4. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

            “The thing I don’t buy is that they would keep them at some storage site, just to deliver a bigger amount of cars at once.”

            Agreed, that makes no sense at all.

            What might make sense — and this is just speculation on my part — is that some of those cars wouldn’t be stockpiled, but would be used for extended test driving to try to spot problems in time to fix them before they actually start selling them to paying customers. (Even selling them to their own employees is still selling them to paying customers.)

            Remember, Tesla has been on a very aggressive schedule for development and start of production for the Model 3, skipping more than one validation stage which more established auto makers like GM use on new models. So if Tesla decides to pause for a month or so between actual start of production and its first deliveries, and use that time to do test driving of those early production units, that would be wise. It might reduce the number of early problems which have plagued all three of Tesla’s previous models: The Roadster, the Model S, and the Model X.

            Again, this is just speculation on my part, not a prediction.

            1. R.S says:

              Yea but that doesn’t change the fact that they would need to store a couple of thousand vehicles, with no-one noticing and all the downsides that come with it, like cost.

              And I don’t really see what would be gained with it. Just set the reveal 3 weeks earlier…

        2. George, if you have time to be posting on here, you probably don’t have the money to pay for the Testing that Tesla HAS been doing, either, just like the rest of us here!
          🙂

          1. GeorgeS says:

            Lets see. How did dr strangelove put it?

            “Much time and little to do”

        3. Nix says:

          george — “I don’t buy that they have already been secretly tested and fully validated.”

          Well, we do actually know that Tesla has already been testing cars in secret at a well-known secure testing facility that ICE car makers also use. So they HAVE been “secretly tested”.

          But I understand the questions surrounding “fully validated”. It is hard to say, since we don’t actually know what secret testing Tesla has done in secret. That makes it a “known unknown”. As in we know that we don’t know exactly what testing has been done.

          1. TM says:

            Nearness to Area 51.

            It all makes sense now.

    2. Tony bryan says:

      I think maybe that’s why they leased that huge building near SanFrancisco. To store cars temporarily

      1. R.S says:

        But why even do that? If they start production 4 weeks before the reveal, why not just move the reveal 4 weeks earlier?

        What is gained by stockpiling a couple of thousand cars?

  3. With limited Color and Wheel choices, they could just simply make 500+ of each combination, or so, then simply assign them to buyers (Staff) according to the orders received from the Online Ordering and Configuration page, and production match, and easily deliver 2,000 to 3,000 cars, with a small number of cars on stage, then a Graduation Ceremony Style of delivery: Call the name, person comes to the front, shakes hands, gets package with Key, Thank You letter from Elon & JB, Share Bonus Document, etc., and walk off stage! (Special Staff or Security lead them to the Delivery Lot and to their cars.)

    1. John says:

      Why on earth would they walk to their car. This is 2017! Your car comes to you!

      /sarcasm

      1. OOOOPS! Sorry! My Bad!
        Your Right – Not Just a Delivery Party, but an Unveiling, and a Revealing of the newer level ‘Summons’ as delivered on the Model 3!

    2. GeorgeS says:

      Robert,
      I sense some sarcasm in your statement but it could very well be true.

      Supposedly these employees have payed for their cars. This is a first in the industry: getting people to pay for a production validation vehicle.

      I’d like to know the real secret terms of this purchase of these validation cars. Calling them true production cars seems to be a bit of a sttetch.

      1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

        “This is a first in the industry: getting people to pay for a production validation vehicle.”

        Definitely not a first. Tesla has done this with all of its new models. The difference here is that Tesla has gotten a bit more wily (not necessarily wiser) in restricting the earliest sales to its own employees, who are less likely to go spreading complaints all over social media if they have a problem with their new car.

  4. Ct200h says:

    Everyone remember the news story about Tesla leasing huge amounts of wharehouse square footage………..
    Seems likely they could use these spaces to store and or complete cars before delivery.

  5. Mister G says:

    GO TESLA GO…all the naysayers and gas guzzler addicts can kiss Elon’s Lily white ARSE LOL

    1. Nix says:

      *laugh* The next month will definitely be interesting!

  6. Chris O says:

    Maybe stockpiling and delivering at the end of the month is Tesla’s way of making good on its promise to start deliveries in July while sitting on early models as long as possible in case problems are discovered?

    Sounds like a sound strategy.

  7. William says:

    The delivery, of first production run of Tesla Model 3 cars, to those who are not the general public, is a good sign, that there will be some good user input on this vehicle, before the average Joe consumer can put the Model 3 through its paces. This car will be well validated, by the Tesla beta testers, well before the real public scrutiny starts to filter out.

    1. Chris O says:

      How is a Tesla/Space X employee who buys,pays for and registers the car on his name not the general public? Seems to me like just a private owner with all the legal obligations for Tesla that with that albeit probably one that’s less likely to run to the press every time there is a screw lose with those early models.

      1. Chris O says:

        Oups..the legal obligations that come with that…

      2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

        “…albeit probably one that’s less likely to run to the press every time there is a screw lose with those early models.”

        You just answered your own question. 🙂

  8. Loboc says:

    Nevertheless. Model 3 deliveries to actual customers won’t start until validation is complete.

    My estimate is 2nd quarter 2018. This estimate is based on past performance, so, maybe Tesla has changed? Doubtful that much change is possible.

    1. Chris O says:

      I wonder what that deliveries to actual customers 2nd quarter 2018 is based on.

      Looks like Tesla and Space X have less than 40K employees among them so even if every single one of them ordered a Model 3 they will all have their cars before the end of this year if serious production really starts in July as this article implies.

      ..and if they buy and pay for these cars they are in fact actual customers.

      1. Scott Franco says:

        Most likely less than 15k deliveries to Tesla employees. There are 30k total employees. I would guess that half of those wanting such a car already have a model S.

        The actual number is more likely 5k to 7k.

        1. Nix says:

          One datapoint we don’t know is how Tesla will handle new employees that became Tesla employees after employees were allowed to create reservations back in spring 2016:

          https://electrek.co/2016/03/18/tesla-employees-began-ordering-their-model-3s-last-night-sight-unseen/

          We don’t know if only the reservations made before customers were allowed to make reservations will get priority, or if employees who made reservations after that will also get priority.

      2. GeorgeS says:

        Chris,

        There was an article that estimated the number of employees that put deposits down was 10,000. Ill try to find it

        1. GeorgeS says:

          (link)

      3. Loboc says:

        It is based on writings from industry and financial analyst types. All three Tesla cars thus far were VERY late compared to Elon’s estimates. Even AP2 is late by 6 months.

        1. Chris O says:

          Don’t put too much stock in what the “analyst types”tell you. Definitely not literally you’ll lose your short…eh…shirt…Eh.. your shorts when you shirt, I mean your shirt when you short…eh…whatever.

          Point is, this time Tesla appears to be a lot more on track than many expected and it’s causing a certain type of investors a “tsunami of hurt”.

    2. Hauer says:

      Not enough employees for your timeline

    3. Hauer says:

      High time to add a ‘Model 3’ line to the monthly EV scorecard, isn’t it.

      1. Nix says:

        Easy trigger, there will be zero June deliveries. At least one more month…

    4. Nix says:

      Loboc — Your dates aren’t actually supported by any of the information we’ve been getting for the last few months.

      “Doubtful that much change is possible.”

      You mean like a brand new car company being started in the United States?

      Or a revolutionary new EV with 3 times the range of any EV built by any ICE car company?

      I’m not sure your doubt of change matches Tesla’s actual track record of revolutionary change. In fact, there are hundreds of stories available detailing all the changes that Tesla has made between how they built the Model S, and what they are doing with the Model 3.

      1. Loboc says:

        Forward information from Elon doesn’t match the actual deliveries by Tesla. Never has.

        Using past information, an estimate of 6 to 9 months from now for first actual customer deliveries is reasonable.

        1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

          But you’re ignoring more current info, such as the reports of Tesla sending reps to directly work with or oversee production by suppliers, Tesla very publicly “firing” (i.e., severing the contract) with one supplier who fell behind schedule, Tesla secretly testing 200 pre-production units in a test facility in… was it Ohio?… and Tesla buying out a German auto parts maker to produce parts for the Model 3, with much consternation when Tesla abruptly ended that supplier’s contracts with other auto makers.

          Tesla is waving huge signs saying “THINGS ARE DIFFERENT THIS TIME”. Perhaps you should stop ignoring those signs.

    5. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      Loboc said:

      “Model 3 deliveries to actual customers won’t start until validation is complete.

      “My estimate is 2nd quarter 2018.”

      With what is almost certainly now well over 400,000 reservations, and plans to ramp up production as fast as possible, you think Tesla is nonetheless going to restrict sales to only its own employees for 3 quarters of a year?

      I find that highly unlikely. Even if Tesla wanted to, the numbers don’t add up.

  9. Ron M says:

    Tesla is going to make or improve on there existing schedule and the battery storage is going to become an increasingly large share of the company, plus the solar roof installations begin in two weeks and there going to sell like crazy. Once people see these solar roofs in there neighbor they’ll be selling themselves. Go Tesla Go.

    1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      I echo your “Go Tesla Go!” sentiment, but…

      Tesla’s solar roof tiles are going to be sold only to a niche of a niche market: Upscale home owners who are replacing their roof, or solar power advocates who are having their own upscale home built to their specifications. Very few if any contractors building new houses are going to install such an expensive roof “on spec” in the hopes of finding a buyer willing to pay extra for it.

      1. Nix says:

        True, solar roofs are still at Model S price levels. There will need to be a Model 3 price level solar roofs. Luckily solar panel prices are dropping, so maybe in another 5-10 years if they manage to get decent volume at the current prices?

        I have no idea, really. Just throwing out a number and hoping it will stick.

  10. David Murray says:

    If they will have several thousand ready by the end of next month. I tend to think they are already rolling them off the line today.

    1. Mike says:

      I think you are probably correct, given the earlier reports that they have 100+ people assembling battery packs by hand. You wouldn’t go through all that expense and hassle to build 100-120 packs a week if you weren’t planning on building 1000+ cars right off the bat.

      1. Nix says:

        There was also a report of the battery construction being automated. We don’t know their status on that, but I would suspect that they would need to have this step fully automated by Sept. at the latest based on their previous statements about parts from other suppliers ramping up in Sept.

        1. ctuna says:

          How could it not be automated do think people are hand rolling battery’s anywhere but in a lab.

          1. Nix says:

            Sorry, my bad, I wasn’t specific enough.

            It is the battery PACK that I was trying to talk about, and failed to communicate that point.

            You are correct, the manufacturing of battery cells are indeed all automated at the Gigafactory. It is the Model 3 battery packs that were being manufactured by hand. Tesla announced that they were automating that work, but did not give a timeline.

            If Tesla stays on schedule for thousands of deliveries in July, they are going to have to get that automation in place quite soon, if they haven’t already done it.

  11. Josh Bryant says:

    I hope the final unveil (delivery ceremony) is all of the initial employees getting their cars at the same time. Have all the employees outside next to their cars while the on stage stuff happens. Then switch the camera outside, and they all hop in and drive off in a monster parade.

    That would be much cooler than a few big wigs getting keys on stage.

  12. pjwood1 says:

    Given Tesla’s will to improve the cars within production years, lots of changes are apt to be included as months go by.

  13. HVACman says:

    These will be validation vehicles, as there is one possible future IEV headline that Tesla knows they absolutely can not afford:

    “Tesla Model 3 Recall Details from Insider:
    All the Thousands of Model 3’s Sold in 2017 To be Recalled To the Factory”.

    1. Chris O says:

      Of course there will be recalls. Even quality champ Toyota recalls cars by the millions these days, why would Tesla be any different. Nobody gets it right all at once any more if they ever did.

      Point is: it doesn’t matter, people have come to expect it, for carmakers it’s sort of part of the production cost.

      1. JeremyK says:

        Oh, it matters. Especially if a part redesign is required. That doesn’t happen overnight. If a safety or powertrain related component failed in the field (large scale, requiring recall) the part would have to be redesigned, usually it would be revalidated (Tesla would skip this of course), then the new parts would be made and parts stream re-filled. While this is happening, the Model 3 line would potentially be SHUT DOWN.

        1. Nix says:

          J/K — “While this is happening, the Model 3 line would potentially be SHUT DOWN.”

          That’s pretty funny, since every single ICE car maker deals with recalls every year, and they somehow manage to continue production despite that. No, recalls don’t normally shut down production in ICE cars.

    2. Nix says:

      Of course there will be recalls. And they will be all listed right here for everybody to see:

      https://www.nhtsa.gov/recalls#vehicle

      Tesla is VERY fast and proactive about issuing recalls. They once issued a recall for every single Model S because they found ONE car with a seatbelt bolted on incorrectly. That is completely unheard of in the automotive industry.

      1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

        Thank you.

        If minor recalls were going to cause people to stop buying any brand of car, then nobody would be buying any cars.

        It’s only when there are deaths and serious injuries caused by defects which the company is shown to have ignored, that gets people to stop buying a particular brand of car.

        The Ford Pinto’s unsafe gas tank? Yeah. The Model S’s problematic extending door handles? Not so much!

  14. unlucky says:

    We’ve only seen these on roads or even Tesla’s test track for 3 months tops. No matter what Tesla says these are validation vehicles. Even if they sell them to people you’re buying an experiment.

    If this were to happen I would strongly suspect Tesla would keep the vehicles in-house, by loaning them (ostensibly selling them) to employees.

    1. Nix says:

      Ah yes. The same old boring “if we don’t have pics, it didn’t happen” bogus argument. Let’s test that theory vs. reality and see how well it has done.

      1) We didn’t see the Model 3 demo cars used for the 2016 reveal event. Trolls said there wouldn’t be cars at the reveal, just renderings, because no pics. Tesla proved them wrong, not only showing up with complete cars, but cars that had already gone through enough testing that they could run demos all night. “pics or it didn’t happen” fail number 1.

      2) Tesla built a handful of crash test cars, and successfully completed crash testing. We didn’t hear about it until months afterwards. No pictures exist even to this day. “pics or it didn’t happen” fail number 2.

      3) Tesla started building even more test cars on their assembly line. We haven’t seen pictures of cars coming off their assembly line either. Not a single pic to this day. Yet we’ve seen the final product driving around anyways. “pics or it didn’t happen” fail number 3.

      4) We’ve gotten leaks of Tesla testing on closed testing grounds that other car makers also use for their testing. No photographs allowed. Reports started leaking out after a few months of testing that there were over a hundred test cars there. Still not a single picture of those test cars begin tested. Not a single shot of testing even to this day. “pics or it didn’t happen” fail number 4.

      So tell me again how what you have seen in any way accurately predicts what Tesla has actually been doing? Because the evidence points to exactly the opposite. That whatever Tesla does, you will be the last to ever see it, long after it is complete.

  15. vdiv says:

    Wouldn’t the sale be gated by the issuance of a Monroney sticker? How would Tesla know when the gov’t will do that?

    1. Nix says:

      Yes, they would take a $$$ penalty for each car they sold without a window sticker. The EPA moves as fast as the EPA moves. Tesla is totally hostage to when the Trump administration completes their work.

      We haven’t seen a window sticker yet, but we have no idea if Tesla has already gotten window stickers for the TM3, or if they are still waiting for them.

      1. GeorgeS says:

        Interesting fly in the ointment vdiv and Nix!

        1. vdiv says:

          We saw that particular fly with the BMW i3 if I remember correctly. The point is there are probably still a lot of gotchas that can unfortunately delay the Model 3 and Tesla seems inconsistent in managing the expectations on that.

          1. Nix says:

            Yes, the BMW i3 REX had that problem, and even Tesla recently saw a few weeks in delays for the 100D versions of the Model S and X while waiting for the EPA:

            https://electrek.co/2017/03/15/tesla-model-s-x-100d-longest-range-vehicle-epa/

            At one point earlier this year, the approval of all window stickers for all car makers had come to a complete halt as new leadership took over. This isn’t one of those fake FUD risks. This is a real risk that is out of the hands of Tesla, and entirely in the hands of the current pro-oil head of the EPA.

  16. fred says:

    Why all this conversation about these cares being for employees? Nothing in the subject article says anything about employees. I’d assume these are all intended for general public.

    1. Nix says:

      fred — That is due to collective tribal knowledge that a number of posters bring to the article that is not in the article. It has been reported widely, and confirmed by Tesla, that employees will have priority for getting the first cars.

      Current Tesla owners will also get preferred delivery slots, and deliveries will start in California and work across the country after that.

    2. Nada says:

      Tesla and SpaceX employees were allowed to order their vehicles before the general public so they are first in line…

  17. Nix says:

    We’ve known for quite a while that the PLAN is to have supplier deliver enough parts each week to build 1000 cars/week in July. That’s enough parts for 4,000 cars. But with manufacturing time, etc only a fraction of those parts could ever be built into complete cars and make it to customer delivery with funds clearing so they can be counted as “delivered”.

    So a few thousand has always been the implied plan, so this isn’t exactly new news.

    What everybody has been wildly speculating about is whether they will actually be able to execute on this plan and hit the numbers. I think that is still the great unknown, and can’t be known until about a month from now. We will see.

  18. Taylor S Marks says:

    Tesla did lease 3 warehouses in the Fremont area a few months ago, totallying 1.3 M square feet of space.

    If you allow 260 square feet of space per car (171 square feet is a standard parking space), you can fit 5000 finished cars between those three warehouses:
    https://electrek.co/2017/03/27/tesla-expand-bay-area-model-3-launch-bart-station/

    1. Truthhhrts says:

      The warehouse space is for all the outsourced parts for m3 production, definitely not to park finished cars

  19. JeremyK says:

    Just to be clear, the way this is supposed to work now is that these cells would go into Beta test vehicles and into specialized battery test chambers for durability testing. 6-12 months later (if no problems were found), they’d be validated and ready to be built into saleable vehicles. I wouldn’t buy one of those first M3s unless it came with a 10 year bumper to bumper warranty. Even then, who wants the hassle of scheduling and waiting for service.

    1. Nix says:

      They’ve had those test cells for well over a year already. They put test cells into test cars long before they even did the spring 2016 reveal where they used them for customer test drives.

      This isn’t even the start of mass production of 2170 cells. That started 6 months ago, with the first units being sold for storage units. (PS – that went fine)

      This isn’t a story about the first 2170 cell being built. This is a story about the launch of mass production. No, they don’t have to repeat work that has already been done. A simple, industry standard practice of pulling a few production samples for testing, just like every other battery maker does every day they manufacture batteries is sufficient at this point.

    2. N. A. Lee says:

      That’s why the first few thousand are going exclusively to employees. Think about it. According to your timeline, 6 months of beta testing is needed, right? Well, end of July delivery for employees would allow that first batch to be run through the paces and then mass consumer production would begin in January 2018. No other car company could get away with using their employees as guinea pigs because there isn’t a mass demand for another up and coming vehicle like the Model 3 that allows for this scenario. Plus, there are advantages using your employees for testing such as the standard non-disclosure agreement, keeping everything wrong with the vehicle hush hush. In my opinion, it’s a genius strategy. Tesla gets credit for starting production on time and gets to use those first so-called production cars as beta test vehicles. It’s a win-win situation for Tesla.

  20. Nix says:

    This is going to mess with poor Jay. I’m not sure he will be able to use his normal methods to estimate July deliveries if Tesla waits and shoves them all out the door at the very end of the month….

    Maybe they are just trying to mess with him?

    *laugh*

    1. Jay Cole says:

      If it happens, we are planning on inserting this pic into the scoreboard beside the Tesla Model 3 heading…as this answer can never be wrong:

      1. Nix says:

        *laugh*

        +1!

      2. georgeS says:

        I don’t get it!

        1. Nix says:

          Saturday Night live Jeopardy skit. It is a classic.

      3. Don Zenga says:

        If they sell in 1,000s, then Tesla will publish the sales of all 3 vehicles.

        But if they did not, then it may be tough to estimate. But a number like 1,000 + can be published. That will give us a lot of comfort.

        1. Jay Cole says:

          We have had a pretty incredible run with pegging Tesla sales over the past 19 quarters (average margin of error when data has ultimately presented eventually itself has been about ~375 units per quarter/125 month over that time), so I am pretty confident we can get the numbers fairly tight over a full month.

          Its just the potential of a ‘very end of the month’ Model 3 dump that Nix rightly assumes could throw us a bit (not that it will happen in anyway in July). A lot of our accuracy on the numbers is via what Fremont is actually building and pushing out the door – and where it is destined, and then from there “mathing” the turnaround to customer.

          Theoretically speaking, if Tesla were to hold built inventory back until after a “first delivery” ceremony, say on Thursday, July 27th…then fat chance on getting the numbers right through July’s end on the following Monday.

          With that said, the ‘early days’ of a new model from Tesla are the easy ones, as when Tesla reports their first couple quarterly deliveries for the 3, 100% of Q3 2017 will be for US, and probably 97% of Q4 2017 (if not 100 too).

          So even if there is some odd end-of-month/delivery issues that make the visibility poor (and honestly, we don’t expect that) at some point this year, ultimately we will know US deliveries of the Model 3 almost exactly in 2017.

          1. Bonaire says:

            Jay – given the July 2 tweets by Musk about 30-end-of-July delivery party, this story still “could” have non-party goers getting some cars (the employee bunch quietly getting builds). What’s your thoughts on July Model 3 “real deliveries” that might occur? I see Model S/S demand slowing so they need to keep the factory busy doing something.

            1. Jay Cole says:

              Haven’t seen anything from our end that would suggest more than the announced deliveries would be going out. So if they hand over 30 keys, that is likely the extent of the deliveries for the month.

  21. midimal says:

    The initial Version of M3 will be a cheap version. Expensive Options will be availble later – M3 will cost than more than 45.000 USD

  22. Don Zenga says:

    100s is believable, but 1000s not.
    Let see.

    1. Nix says:

      I’m definitely on the “let’s see” side, since in just another month or so, we’ll actually see with our own eyes.

      It could be 100, 1000, or thousands. Literally nobody can actually say for sure, not even Elon.

  23. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

    This is absurd. I don’t care how often this source has been accurate in the past, he can’t predict the future any better than the rest of us. I have no doubt that Tesla has planned to deliver thousands of Model 3’s in July, and has ordered parts accordingly. But that is only going to happen if everything goes smoothly with start of production; if there are no unforeseen difficulties, none at all.

    Now, now often does it happen that production of something as complex as a modern automobile, with its thousands of parts, goes that smoothly? In the entire history of the world, has that ever happened? I would be quite surprised if it has happened even once.

    No plan survives contact with the enemy. — Helmuth von Moltke the Elder

    Finagle’s Law: The perversity of the universe tends towards a maximum.

    Murphy’s Law: Anything that can go wrong will go wrong.

    See a theme here? 😉

  24. don says:

    I will certainly be happy if they sell in 1,000s.

    For a small company starting only the 3rd product on mass production basis, its difficult to visualize how they can sell in 1,000s.

    Time and again, we are disappointed by the low sales of electric vehicles like
    Focus, Golf, Soul, B250 … and plugin vehicles like ELR, 3 Series, Accord and so on.

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