Tesla Model 3 Production Could Be 1,600 Per Week, But Probably Not
A recent Tesla Fremont factory tour suggests that the automaker has the current potential to build about 1,600 Model 3 vehicles per week, and that’s only with a single line.
We’re pretty confident that this is not happening. But the fact that it “could” happen is compelling. And, we have no reason not to believe what the observer recounts.
Redditor hormesisaccountant posted some interesting information a few days ago at r/teslamotors. Amidst a tour of the Tesla factory in Fremont, California, he was able to observe Model 3 part stamping and vehicle production.
His first takeaway is that there are hundreds of finished parts stockpiled around the stamping area. He mentioned that it appears even though Model 3 production was experiencing bottlenecks, the stamping has continued on. While HA admits to knowing nothing about “what goes into the car”, he was confident that there must be:
“Multiple hundreds of a given part ready to go.”
The tour guide spoke of two assembly lines for the Model 3. HA was discouraged when he noticed the first line was at a standstill. But, we knew this was the case already. For now, only one line is running. He was unable to see the second line very clearly, however, it was clear enough that it is moving continuously (one would sure hope so!).
HA notes that the elevator up to the paint shop was in plain view and he observed the interval between Model 3s to be less than three minutes. Let’s take a look at HA’s napkin math here:
“Assuming 3 minutes for easy math, no stops at shift changes: 20/hour, 2 x 8 hour shifts, 5 days a week equals 1600 car per week.”
There are obvious flaws with this (such as the double shift/no stops being in the calculation) and HA even points that out, as do several picky commenters on Reddit. But, that’s not the point. It’s a simple, quick guesstimate for the sake of sharing. HA’s point is to shed some light on the situation for us, from the standpoint of an average Joe checking out the Tesla factory. He goes on to say that once the other line is producing equally and weekend shifts are included, there’s no reason that Tesla can’t produce 5,000 Model 3s per week. He concludes:
“Like probably all of you (short-sellers excepted), I was concerned; now I am somewhat reassured. Also: giddy as hell about my eventual Model 3.”
Click the link below to read his entire account and the comments that accompany it.