Sources Say Tesla Model Y Production Will Start November 2019

APR 11 2018 BY ERIC LOVEDAY 60

The Tesla Model Y electric crossover may be arriving on the market even earlier than previous reports suggested.

Model Y will be a long-range electric CUV based off the existing Tesla Model 3 and it’s expected to be the highest volume offering to date from the electric automaker.

Related – Tesla Model Y Launch Date Rumored To Be March 1, 2020

According to Reuters:

“Tesla is targeting November 2019 as the start of production for its Model Y sport utility vehicle, with production in China to begin two years later, two sources told Reuters this week, shedding some light on the electric vehicle maker’s next project that could tax its resources and capacity.”

This falls mostly in line with our previous source-fed report that stated the Model Y would launch in March of 2020. So, production starts November 2019, then a few months later deliveries will commence.

Now that we’ve got several sources backing a similar start-up timeframe for the model Y, we’re fairly confident in the validity of the intel. However, Tesla often delays launches, so even if this is accurate right now, that doesn’t mean the Y launch will stay on track.

Tesla Model Y Rendering

Reuters adds:

“Tesla has given suppliers scant details about the program and had not provided a production time frame, but has now indicated the vehicle would begin to be built at its Fremont, California, plant in November of next year, the two sources with knowledge of the supply chain said.”

The Fremont factory can’t handle the expected production volume of the Y and 3 combined though, so Tesla will eventually seek out other sites for production and it looks like China may be in the running. Per Reuters:

“The two sources said suppliers could be estimating an annual production of 500,000 vehicles in the United States, with much lower volume in China, likely in the tens of thousands. Building 500,000 Model Ys per year would be the equivalent of what Musk has planned for total production in Fremont by the end of this year, although the company is nowhere near that volume.”

The sources say that Tesla issued them a supplier “request for information (RFI),” which is a first step in setting up the supply chain for a new car. Typically this RFI is issued more than 2 years ahead of the launch of a new vehicle, but Tesla always sets aggressive timelines, so it likely expects supply demands to be met in less than the industry standard time. Additionally, much of the Y will be carry over parts from the Model 3, so it seems feasible that it could be ready in shorter order.

Tesla has not commented on this new information leaked by supplier sources.

Source: Reuters

Categories: Tesla

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60 Comments on "Sources Say Tesla Model Y Production Will Start November 2019"

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F150 Brian

Another CUV to arrive 2020 – the segment could be crowded. Gonna be tough to sell 500,000/yr with plenty of other options available – they had better plan to price it competitively.

TheWay

There is actually not enough CUVs. All the others are showing production rates of 20k cars per year. You think that is large enough to facilitate the growing CUV market?

Not to mention charging networks are also important.

Windbourne

Given the choice of a tesla CUV vs something like a GM bolt or koniq, most ppl will buy a tesla over those.

If you do not believe it, look at model 3 vs all the other EVs.

F150 Brian

Model 3 vs what???

There is no direct competition. A BMW 3 series BEV, Audi “A4” BEV, etc would be direct competition but they don’t exist yet, so you can’t use Model 3 sales as a baseline.

F150 Brian

The Model Y will have direct competition from Audi e-Tron, BWM ix3, Volvo XC40, Jaguar I-PACE and others who play in the entry level luxury market.

mx

How can “always going bankrupt” Tesla build a model Y, whereas Ford and GM cannot?

(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous

Please, Please PLEASE!!!!!! Don’t make it look like the rendering or the 3 or S or X.

Yeah, I know CD is in play but dang man…

2020 is the year I plan to buy the 3. Hmmm, I’ll need to see what the Y will actually look like and some specs.

Dave86

Model Y needs real utility, which the Model X lacks.

People want to be able to put bikes, kayaks, or a SkyBox on the roof. Rear door needs real utility for big box items like appliances.

The lack of any utility of Model X makes me wonder what Elon Musk does with his spare time in life.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Elon doesn’t have any spare time, at least not in the normal sense. His second full-time job, in case you don’t know, is running SpaceX. That leaves far too little time for family life, and no “spare” time at all.

If Elon has a “hobby”, it’s his third job — running The Boring Company. I don’t know if he considers it a hobby, but he obviously doesn’t take it seriously!

Windbourne

Why do you say that Musk does not take boring company seriously, when he has multiple tunnels going in right now?
These will be running either hyperloop (high speed) or loop (“slow speed” at 150+ MPH).

Pushmi-Pullyu

If you have to explain a joke, then it’s not funny! But for the humor-challenged, there’s this:

https://twitter.com/i/moments/810167683752693760?lang=en

Also, promoting the Boring Co. by selling a blowtorch labeled a “flame thrower”. Some humor-challenged people expressed outrage at that, too! 🙄

Null

He tries to integrate time with kids and work.

Will

Lmao problem Margaret is your source.😂😂😂 how about start producing the model 3 at 5k a week and 200k a year before building pre production models of the model y

Viking79

The Model 3 is already being built at a rate of around 130,000 per year. Last year, in the US, 200,000 cars with plugs were sold, but less than 100,000 BEVs. Tesla is already building at a rate greater than all of US 2017 BEV deliveries. This is one model.

A rate of 250k or 500k is needed for global deliveries, but just for US the current production rate is probably acceptable.

EVShopper

They need a new factory to meet those volumes. They may be able to dribble a few out on the same line as the Model 3. Like GM building the Cruze sedan and hatchback on the same line.

So maybe mid 2020 for volume production, but more likely 2021 based on past performance.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Yeah, it seems rather premature to be talking about a date for start of production on the Model Y (perhaps it’s a forlorn hope, but hope they change that name!) before they’ve even started building a new auto assembly plant, or renovating an existing one.

As I recall, it took Tesla about 1 year and 9 months to renovate the NUMMI auto assembly plant for their use. Generally speaking, starting from scratch by building a new factory takes about two full years to get it up and actually mass producing.

Last report I saw, Tesla was only in talks with some Chinese auto maker to start building Tesla cars there. No indication that any deal has yet been made.

So I’m going to treat the info in this article as just a rumor, at least until we see something that looks much, much more like verified facts.

Asak

I think it depends what the organic, sustainable demand for the Model 3 is. Right now there’s obviously pent-up demand and a backlog, but that doesn’t mean once you get through the backlog that there’s really demand for 100,000+ Model 3s per year (especially if the base model ends up being a teaser). If not, then having the Y on the same line could work out.

Regardless, based on Tesla’s past track record I’m skeptical we’ll see significant availability until 2021. The 2019 production target will slip back into 2020 where it will go into “production” with a few dribbling out. And then we’ll finally actually see true production around the start of 2021.

BenG

That production time-line sounds about right

TheWay

Why do they need a new factory when they are doubling the size of their current one?

Picture:
comment image

Article:
https://www.sfchronicle.com/business/article/New-Tesla-plan-could-double-size-of-Fremont-9936003.php

Filing with the city:
http://fremontcityca.iqm2.com/Citizens/FileOpen.aspx?Type=1&ID=1338&Inline=True

Pushmi-Pullyu

I dunno, things are already pretty crowded there, with insufficient room for employees to park.

I do see from aerial views that there appears to be “empty” land or farm land adjacent to Tesla’s Fremont complex, so perhaps Tesla can indeed do a major expansion if they buy up some of that additional land.

But they would be advised to either build a high-rise parking lot, or dig a huge basement and put a multi-level parking lot in that, before they do any major expansion! With parking space already being insufficient for current workers, hiring more is going to become more and more problematic.

EVShopper

They are also apparently bidding for a large chunk of land in Oakland. But building a second assembly factory in CA seems foolish. Work a deal with one of the states preventing the direct sales model to open up sales to them if the build a factory there.

Or come to the Pacific Northwest. We’ve got lots of tech and advanced mfg talent here.

Pushmi-Pullyu

I don’t see Tesla building a 2nd auto assembly plant in California. I will be very surprised if they build any factory there that has a lot of blue-collar workers. California is too pro-Union for that, and Tesla is already having enough headaches with all the dishonest union agitprop that the UAW is using to attack the company.

Not that I personally have anything at all against local unions or collective bargaining, but large national or international unions like the UAW, with layers of management separating union bosses from actual workers, become top-heavy parasites on their own members.

Will

Unions and liberals built America. Sorry that they want a honest wage

TomArt

Truth.

Will

Here in my town of lorain ohio we had the ford plant that shutdown in 2005 they use to make econoline vans and thunderbirds, tesla we be good over here plus theres alot of suppliers here

Will

Build on the track. And test the cars at California raceway

Nix

Go back in the archives and take a look at the latest overhead drone videos of the Tesla factory. They have already broken ground on major construction on one end of their property.

They already have the Model 3 assembly line built, so expansion may be related to future manufacturing of new models.

Also, Tesla’s plan is to increase factory output through continuing to increase automation. They are trying to get V1 running now, with V1.5 and V2.0 for the Model 3 to be rolled onto the factory floor over time. The Model Y is planned to start production with a V3.0 level of automation.

Jason

Given Tesla history, they have a reveal for their vehicle announcements. When they have the reveal for the Model Y then you know a couple years later they will be making it. All these fantasy stories don’t mean anything at this stage, I might as well tell you they are in talks with the state of South Australia, where they plan to build the Model Y in one of our abandoned cart factories. Anyone can say anything, so just wait for their reveal, where all will be revealed.
If they were going to do the Model Y in November 2019, there would have to be a reveal now. Maybe the referral will be November 2019.

TJKR

With this, Semi and Roadster and maybe Model S/X refresh, Tesla will burn alot of capital to get these assembly lines up and running and to open their China factory. They really need several quarters of good cashflow. Only thing holding them back is Model 3 production. I think they need to crank out 10K Model 3’s a week to even think about starting to build Model Y’s.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Yes, but at the same time, given the long development time (4-5 years) for a new car model*, and the approximately two years between breaking ground on a new factory and starting mass production in that factory, Tesla needs to have been already moving forward with plans for the Model Y. So it’s good that it is doing so, even though it looks like what’s reported here is likely more rumor than fact.

Tesla can always put off start of Model Y production for a few months somewhere down the line, if it comes to that. Far better to have that be the plan than what happened with the Model 3; rushing to start production faster than planned, then having to put the brakes on for several months because not every production line was ready to roll!

*Hopefully somewhat less for the Model Y, since it’s supposed to be a variant on the Model 3 rather than an entirely new model like the Model 3 was. I hope that turns out to be more true for the TMY than it was for the MX, which was originally supposed to be a variant on the MS but turned into something quite different!

gary

Another nail in the coffin of the $35K Model 3. They’ll be able to sell lots of LR and/or highly optioned Y’s and will likely produce those over the “stripper” 3.

Pushmi-Pullyu

I really don’t understand this drumbeat, this incessant propaganda meme of Tesla bashing, based on the idea that Tesla won’t build many of the base “stripper” TM3’s, for an actual sales price of $35,000. No auto maker makes a lot of base “stripper” units with no options at all, and I think it’s safe to say that most Tesla reservation holders wouldn’t want one if Tesla offered it today.

Once again, Tesla bashers keep trying to make it out to be somehow “bad” or “wrong” when Tesla follows automotive industry standard. I find it bizarre that they apparently think those reading their comments are clueless enough to believe their FUD, if not downright stupid! It’s pretty insulting on their part, too.

Thank goodness I’m a Tesla fan, so I can stick to real facts and honest opinions, rather than the obvious B.S. seen in most Tesla bashing posts!

Asak

Honestly, I think a lot of reservation holders probably want the base model. $35K still isn’t exactly a cheap car. It’s just my opinion, but I don’t think you get 400,000 reservations all from people who want to spend $50K on a car.

TheWay

While there are probably plenty of people who want a base Tesla Model 3. I will remind you Tesla sold 300k cars with prices over 75k.

So I wouldn’t say 500k cars at 50k is too far to fathom. (not saying it is the case)

Doggydogworld

Tesla sold 300k cars TOTAL at 75k+. The want to all 500k Model 3s PER YEAR. Can’t do that at 50k+….

For those who say free people but stripper versions, Musk said 35k was NOT a stripped down version, but was “well equipped”.

Gasbag

Often strippers are well equipped 😏

Nix

Doggy, you are comparing base price for the S/X with moderately optioned price for the Model 3. The moderately optioned price of the S/X is roughly double the moderately optioned Model 3 price.

In ICE cars, that type of price gap typically comes with 1-2 orders of magnitude in higher sales.

Nix

There are a couple of places on the internet where huge numbers of reservation holders have actually reported what they want, and how much they expect to pay.

Even people who want the 220 range version typically want some options. True stripper cars with only a paint option is a small minority, but still represents more buyers than ALL Model S and Model X reservation holders combined.

So no, not everybody wants the $35K version with no options, and no, the numbers aren’t tiny like the 40kWh Model S (which were in the hundreds) where Tesla would cancel production.

gary

Other Automakers may not sell many base models, but they are available. Therein lies the difference – the announced and much ballyhooed $35K version is NOT available, and the timeline when it will be keeps getting pushed out. We may never know how many will/would buy it as it does not exist.
I’n not bashing Tesla, it is good business sense to make and sell higher cost/margin/profit products if the demand is there. But it doesn’t bode well for those that DO want the base model – whether that is a few or many.

“Thank goodness I’m a Tesla fan, so I can stick to real facts and honest opinions, rather than the obvious B.S. seen in most Tesla bashing posts!”
This statement is at the root of the criticism of Tesla fan bois. Self serving and self righteous control over what constitutes “facts” and the only “honest opinions” being offered.

I too am a Tesla fan. But I don’t let that fact cloud my thinking nor distort reality.

Pushmi-Pullyu
It’s neither Tesla bashing nor FUD to point out — correctly — that the delay in Tesla ramping up production of the TM3 has delayed the availability of the “base model”. Whether or not that base model is really a “stripper” is a semantic argument; it’s an argument over the definition of “stripper”, and thus pointless. What is FUD and Tesla bashing is the claim — and we’ve seen that claim a lot here from serial Tesla bashers, not just a few times — what is FUD and Tesla bashing is the repeated false claim that Tesla never intended to make the $35,000 base model, and that Tesla intended all along to cancel that trim level while offering the lame excuse that there is “no demand” for it. That’s nothing but bull pucky. I gotta admit, that’s a clever bit of FUD. Give the Devil his due! The best lies contain some truth. It’s true that Tesla did cancel the lowest trim level of the Model S; the 40 kWh battery pack version. They cancelled it because there was so little demand for it; only about ~2% or less of the pre-orders were for the Model S40. That’s an honest… Read more »
William

It would be helpful to provide a link to your stated Russian Troll Farm agenda, to the good people of Catalonia, Spain, and their divisive political representatives on the local and national level.
I think the influencers and disrupters, are more internal state actors, than external ones (ie. Russian Trolls).

Bunny

But Tesla made a really big deal about that 35k price point
Almost anything printed about the Model 3
States 35k for a couple years now. It’s not like Tesla offers discounts like dealers do, so I think some of that criticism is warranted and definitely not
FUD.

Windbourne

Yeah, but a number of them are getting paid by the kock bros. There has always been naysayers on Tesla and SpaceX, but , the massive increase in Tesla naysayers would indicate an astroturf campaign, with loads of trolls.
In fact, I would not be the least bit surprised if these are not the same ppl that worked for Russia/China during the election. They just continue working for the GOP.

Don Zenga

Ford shows their Focus for 2019.
It has sedan, hatch & wagon styles.
It has 6 speed manual and 8 speed automatic tranny.
It has Gasoline & Diesel engines.

But where is the Electric?
No reference to it. Can we presume they are dropping the electric version.
For US it will come only in 2020 and there may not be MY-2019 at all.
So the remaining electric will be sold out soon.

Who cares when Model-3 sales is increasing.

DJ

“Production” as in build a couple by hand as prototypes maybe…

Tom

1. Presumably the Y uses the same motors, battery pack, etc as the 3 and of course software is re-usable. I think all the truly difficult parts of are copy/paste since the 3 by that point will have AWD. Would like to see a different external form than the 3 though. Something with a proper hatch.
2. After that, Tesla should make a Model Z. The Z would be a little eco car with a look similar to a VW Golf…i.e. well proportioned and compact. Make a low price point version of it that comes in at $25,000 perhaps than a hot hatch AWD GTI competitor.

In summary, Go low after the Y. And yes dial back the space age nonsense a half turn. Perhaps actual door handles for instance….it won’t kill you to put door handles or a volume knob on the radio and such.

EVShopper

Sorry but Tesla has stated they have no intent of making a lower price entry than the Model 3. They plan to serve lower income folks by offering the privilege of paying to hail a wealthy person’s Tesla for car sharing using the Tesla network. Peons are not meant to own cars.

Windbourne

What elon says up front and what he does are different things.
They will be producing a lower-end models so as to push ICE out the door.
Always keep in mind that Musk’s goal is to destroy ICE vehicles and to do that, he has to cover nearly all bases.
He will produce a 20-25K car. I doubt that he will do below 20K.

Pushmi-Pullyu

I would like to believe you’re right, but all signs point to Tesla never making a lower-priced car so long as Elon is in charge of the company.

Looking to the future, Tesla is talking about the Model Y, the Tesla Semi Truck, the 2020 Roadster, and eventually a pickup. There has been not the slightest hint of something less expensive than the Model 3.

I hope that Tesla does eventually make a car inexpensive enough to be a true “Everyman” car, but my guess is that Tesla will only produce one in response to some other auto maker doing it first. Maybe BYD or some other Chinese EV maker will start selling relatively cheap EVs in first-world countries? That’s how Japanese auto makers got a toehold in the American gasmobile market; quite possibly the Chinese will do the same with the EV market.

Nix

EVShopper — Wrong. The future plan is for ANYBODY to be able to afford a Model 3, because you can drive it to work and then set it free to go autonomously pick up ride fares without out and pay for itself while you don’t use it. Then you drive home, and it autonomously picks up ride fares while you sleep.

Sorry you simply don’t understand the long term vision.

Nix

The cheap hatch EV market is already over-saturated. There is already a long list of cheap small EV’s to choose from that few people are actually choosing in the US market.

BenG

Nah, there’s still not a workable cheap hatch EV for every-day use. The old Leaf got to be cheap after the $10k discount and the federal credit, but it’s not a general purpose car and neither is the new one, nor is the new one cheap.

The Bolt is far from cheap. Drop the price 10k and you’re getting there but how long until that kind of discount happens? 5 years after you count for inflation?

A Tesla Model 2 compact sedan and an accompanying Model Z compact CUV in the ballpark of $25k for a base model would further Tesla’s goal of driving the ICE to extinction.

Stanley Hutchinson

what BS, Tesla “Elon Musk” can’t even get the 3 production right, it’s April and they’re still on !200-1300 units per week instead of the 5,000, and even 10,000 like Elon Musk wanted.

Arpe

2000+ per week atm. 🙂

Windbourne

You obviously do not know a thing about manufacturing. A typical car maker takes a year to get up to 20K/YEAR. Then in the second year, they can get it up to 100-250K / year.

He is already doing 130+K / year.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

Nix

At current reported rates, this month will sell more Model 3’s in the United States than ANY small or midsize luxury car from ALL the ICE car makers. Sorry you can’t do math.

Source: goodcarbadcar

Get Real

Flat Stanley the troll gets it wrong about Tesla.

Another Euro point of view

The problem with EVs is that, for the sake of being efficient (CD), they need to have that egg sort of body. That makes somewhat boring looking cars IMO so I hope Model Y will not be a small Model X. Cheaper batteries, super fast charging and an extensive charger networks should hopefully allow the car makers to relax a bit on the body styling.

Nix

“electric vehicle maker’s next project that could tax its resources and capacity”

That is a pretty negative viewpoint for a product that will also produce 10’s of Billions in new revenue and greatly increase Tesla’s market share vs. ICE CUV’s. It is amazing how short-sighted these folks are, focusing only on ramp-up costs and remaining intentionally blind to the sales that come after the investment….

Osvaldo Machado

Model Y should have the body style and proportions of a BMW X4 and a Mercedes GLC Coupé, but just a little bit more roomier. If Tesla is going to make something “fat” like the Model X them I think they won’t have a chance in European markets!