Wall Street Expects Record Quarter For Tesla With 420,000 Deliveries

For the entire calendar year, Wall Street analysts forecast Tesla deliveries to come in around 1.8 million.

By: Dan Mihalascu

Mar 29, 2023 at 7:48am ET

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The first quarter of the year is on track to bring record deliveries for Tesla around the world.

The price cuts implemented by the company early in the year in most global markets combined with the production ramp at Giga Texas and Giga Berlin are paying off.

The consensus among Wall Street analysts is that Tesla will deliver approximately 420,000 vehicles in Q1 2023, up approximately 15,000 units (+3.7 percent) over the previous quarter and an increase of 110,000 units (+39 percent) over Q1 2022. For the entire calendar year, Wall Street forecasts Tesla deliveries to come in around 1.8 million, according to Investors.com.

Tesla is currently ramping up two new factories at the same time, in Berlin, Germany and Austin, Texas. In addition, the EV maker is still increasing capacity at its other vehicle assembly plants in Fremont, California, and Shanghai, China.

The company recently announced that Giga Berlin achieved a production rate of 5,000 Model Y vehicles per week. In December 2022, Tesla also announced that Giga Texas reached a production rate of 3,000 Model Ys per week; despite no further updates, production likely increased since then.

These plants have allowed Tesla to post record deliveries over the last few quarters and consolidate its domination of the EV market.

Gallery: 2023 Tesla Model S

When it comes to sales, Tesla is looking good in all major markets worldwide.

In the United States, Tesla's biggest market, the EV maker is on track to post more than 180,000 sales in the first quarter, according to a forecast from Cox Automotive. That would be an all-time record quarter for the company and would allow it to surpass 5-percent market share for the first time in the US.

In China, Tesla's second-biggest market, the latest registration data show that the company already beat its record for deliveries in the country with 126,000 deliveries reported a week before the end of the quarter. The EV maker is expected to deliver around 140,000 vehicles in China in Q1 2023.

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Things are looking good in Europe too, with some countries like Portugal reporting overloaded Tesla delivery centers. Owners are reportedly asked by the company to get their cars directly at the truck companies as there's no physical space to store the cars.

The Model Y is the top-selling EV by far across Europe, while in Norway, Tesla is on track for a record month of March and around 10,000 vehicles delivered this quarter.