Tesla May Come Close To Its 50% Delivery Growth Guidance In US

Despite mounting obstacles, Tesla still aims to deliver 50% more EVs than it did in 2021, and some experts say it may pull it off.

Tesla Model Y

Steven Loveday

By: Steven Loveday

Dec 29, 2022 at 1:15pm ET

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Tesla has continued to stand behind its guidance to achieve 50 percent delivery growth year over year. While it appears it may be closely in line to meet that target, some reports suggest it's just not possible. However, according to data from Cox Automotive, the EV brand may actually come close to pulling it off, at least in the US.

Automakers don't typically grow like Tesla has and continues to, though it is still a startup that's building and ramping up factories across the globe. The last few years have been rough in the automotive industry as a whole, but Tesla has stood its ground and proven that it can succeed far beyond most brands, amid much uncertainty and adversity.

Based on a number of recent media reports and statements from analysts, it appears Tesla may fall short of its 50-percent growth goal this year, which wouldn't come as a surprise considering the challenges it has faced in 2022. However, the electric automaker has been pulling out all the stops to try to ensure that it can deliver virtually every EV it can produce, and all ahead of the end of the year.

In order for Tesla to achieve its goal, it will need to sell over 1.4 million EVs across the globe in 2022. Based on Cox Automotive's detailed analysis, the firm believes Tesla will sell almost 134,000 cars in the US in Q4 2022. This would mark a 16-percent year-over-year bump from Q4 2021. Adding up all estimated Tesla sales in the US for 2022 brings Cox to a total of nearly 525,000 vehicles delivered on our shores, which is 48.9-percent sales growth in the US on the year.

At this point, there's really no way to know for sure exactly how many cars Tesla will deliver in the US for 2022, and it's still difficult to put a finger on how many EVs Tesla is selling across the globe as the year comes to an end. That said, the brand has been setting records in China and Europe, and inventory in the US is plummeting thanks to Tesla's temporary incentives and discounts.