The wait times for deliveries of the new Tesla Model 3 and Tesla Model Y in the US have been consistently increasing for more than a year, a new customer survey reveals.
In the case of the Model Y, buyers who took delivery in Q2 2022 waited 175 days (almost 6 months since placing an order) on average. That's much longer than in Q2 2021 (46 days), and noticeably more than at the launch/ramp-up phase (over 130 days).
In the case of the Model 3, the numbers are lower, but still at record highs: 89 days (or over three months) on average for deliveries completed in Q2 2022. A year earlier, it was barely 50 days, while two years ago, it was just 20 days.
As we understand, the numbers are averages for the models, which means that some versions (the top of the line or with options) might have shorter wait times. On the other hand, the entry-level versions (which are potentially less profitable for the company) might require a longer wait time.
Troy Teslike expressed hope that production of the Tesla Model Y in Texas will increase and reduce the queue, which will be checked in the next edition of the survey.
The data is especially interesting because Tesla has recently decided to axe the possibility of ordering the Tesla Model 3 Long Range (AWD) version in the US and Canada, explaining that the waitlist is too long. The version is expected to be re-introduced at some point in 2023.
As we can see, the issue with the Tesla Model Y (top-selling electric car in the US and globally in 2022) is even bigger. However, the data for the Model 3 also indicates an accelerated increase of the number of days from 60 in Q1 to 89 in Q2.
Tesla estimated deliver times
A different approach to see how long customers are waiting for cars is to see Tesla's estimated delivery time, which is visible when ordering.
According to the research done by Troy Teslike, it's 4 months on average globally. The Tesla Model 3 LR in the US and Canada spiked to over 5 months, but the Model Y LR was at over 7 months. The biggest issue is with the Tesla Model X LR which is at over 9 months.
A side effect of this method is that it can be used to estimate the order backlog (assuming production volume in the previous periods and wait time). Currently, it seems that Tesla has more than 500,000 orders on hand for four core models.