Tesla Q3 2021 Deliveries: Bears & Bulls Predict New Record

Despite a chip shortage and plenty of other challenges, Tesla may set another delivery record in the coming days.

By: Steven Loveday

Sep 29, 2021 at 9:07am ET

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We've alerted you at least twice now that, as usual, Tesla CEO Elon Musk is encouraging employees to push as hard as possible to bring Q3 2021 to a healthy conclusion. He's also pointed out that this quarter may mark Tesla's most crazy delivery push ever. However, Musk never actually said anything about the numbers being massive, but rather, the automaker needs to make up for challenges caused by part shortages, the pandemic, and more.

Regardless of Musk's words, analysts on both sides of the aisle are projecting that Tesla will set another delivery record. If their research and speculation are correct, Tesla could deliver more cars in Q3 2021 than it has ever delivered in a quarter in the past.

The usual analysts all have their take. Electrek points out that a poll of Wall Street analysts shows a consensus of 222,700 Tesla vehicles delivered globally in Q3 2021. Tesla's current record comes in at 201,250 deliveries in Q2 2021. Piper Sandler and RBC are banking on 233,000 deliveries, and Credit Suisse suggests Tesla may deliver somewhere between 225,000 and 230,000.

What's arguably more interesting here comes from a recent article published by Teslarati. The site points out that one of the biggest Tesla bears, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research, has set his Q3 2021 Tesla delivery forecast at 223,000. Johnson typically sets a very low bar for Tesla and is constantly making excuses online when he is wrong.

What do you think?

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We're not sure if Johnson's high number is a good thing or a bad thing. This is because, over his career, he's had a reputation for being wrong about almost everything related to Tesla. If his track record continues, and he's as wrong as he usually is, it may not be good for Tesla. Unless, of course, Tesla beats Johnson's estimate considerably.

At his point, it's just a waiting, and guessing, game. We all know some folks' guesses are better and more well-researched than others. Scroll down to the comment section and provide us with your Tesla Q3 2021 delivery estimate.