As initially forecasted several years ago, the Tesla Model Y is outpacing sales of the Tesla Model 3 in the U.S. and specifically in California.

Cross-Sell's registration data, invoked by Reuters, reveals that as far as California is considered, the Model Y noted 12,227 new registrations in the first quarter of 2021, compared to 8,060 for the Model 3. The Model 3 is down 54% year-over-year, which was indicated also in the Cox Automotive and Kelley Blue Book report for the U.S.

Registration data are not equal to the sales/deliveries, but highly correlated to sales (typically a new vehicle is registered within 30 days).

Cross-Sell's registration data for 22 states shows also 44,502 Tesla registrations and more than half falls on the Model Y. Cox Automotive and Kelley Blue Book estimates 69,300 units total in all states.

Tesla Model Y
Tesla Model Y
Tesla Model 3
Tesla Model 3

The switch from Model 3 to Model Y throws new light on the pricing changes and maybe why the Standard Range Model Y was discontinued?

Model Base Price Dest. Charge Tax Credit Effective Price
2021 Tesla Model 3 Standard Range Plus $38,490 +$1,200 N/A $39,690
2021 Tesla Model 3 Long Range AWD $47,490 +$1,200 N/A $48,690
2021 Tesla Model 3 Perf. LR AWD 20" $56,990 +$1,200 N/A $58,190
2021 Tesla Model Y Long Range AWD 19" $50,490 +$1,200 N/A $51,690
2021 Tesla Model Y Perf. LR AWD 21" $60,990 +$1,200 N/A $62,190

In California, Q1 Tesla registrations amounted to about 21,520 (slightly less than in 22,117 in Q4 2020), but we don't know the year-over-year result.

The lack of Model S and Model X in the stats was caused because in Q1 Tesla did not produce its flagship models (retooling for the refreshed version).

Globally, Q1 2021 was the best quarter in Tesla's history - 184,800 deliveries (up 109% year-over-year).

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