The expected delivery time of the MIC Tesla Model Y in China, listed in the online design studio (for new orders), has increased substantially, from January to February, and now to the second quarter. The waiting time for the Performance version is even longer - Q3.
Usually, a longer expected delivery time means that the company is receiving an overwhelming number of orders, in relation to the forecasted manufacturing volume. We guess that this is the case also this time.
Assuming that the rumors about a production rate of 3,000 MIC Model Y per week are correct, one quarter represents a volume of 40,000. Tesla surely could receive 40,000 or more orders (easily, considering MIC Model 3 sales volume and high interest in MIC Model Y in Tesla stores after lowering the prices), which would mean at least several months of wait for new buyers.
If the queue is longer - like late Q2, then we guess that the number of orders might turn out to be a lot higher.