If only the Model Y repeats the Model 3 success in the crossover segment, sales might be two times higher (300,000 annually).
Most recently, the company showed on a chart that the Model 3 noticeably outsold in the U.S. all of its main sedan competitors combined. The list of those main competitors includes Mercedes C-class, BMW 3-series, Audi A4/S4, Lexus IS, Jaguar XE.
Model Y market potential US deliveries in the last 4 quarters
The Model Y production and sales just started in Q1 (to be resumed in Q2), but assuming that the results will be similar, sales of the Model Y might be around 300,000 annually just in the U.S.
At least that is the combined result of all main crossover competitors (according to Tesla): Mercedes GLC, BMW X3, Audi Q5, Lexus NX, Jaguar F-pace, Porsche Macan.
The installed manufacturing capacity of Model 3/Y in Fremont is 400,000 units annually and will be expanded to 500,000 later this year.
At least theoretically, Tesla should be able to crank some 300,000 or more Model Y.