If only the Model Y repeats the Model 3 success in the crossover segment, sales might be two times higher (300,000 annually).

Tesla has high ambitions and expectations for the Model Y, which might not only match but significantly expand on the Model 3 sales results.

Most recently, the company showed on a chart that the Model 3 noticeably outsold in the U.S. all of its main sedan competitors combined. The list of those main competitors includes Mercedes C-class, BMW 3-series, Audi A4/S4, Lexus IS, Jaguar XE.

Model Y market potential US deliveries in the last 4 quarters

The Model Y production and sales just started in Q1 (to be resumed in Q2), but assuming that the results will be similar, sales of the Model Y might be around 300,000 annually just in the U.S.

At least that is the combined result of all main crossover competitors (according to Tesla): Mercedes GLC, BMW X3, Audi Q5, Lexus NX, Jaguar F-pace, Porsche Macan.

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The installed manufacturing capacity of Model 3/Y in Fremont is 400,000 units annually and will be expanded to 500,000 later this year.

At least theoretically, Tesla should be able to crank some 300,000 or more Model Y.