Navigant Puts Tesla In Last Place Among Autonomous Vehicles

JAN 19 2018 BY ERIC LOVEDAY 102

Navigant’s leaderboard ranks Tesla dead last in autonomous driving technology. Leaders include General Motors, Waymo and Daimler-Bosch.

It’s really no surprise to see Tesla down on the bottom of the list. Without LIDAR, Tesla vehicles aren’t really capable of self-driving in most situations. However, Tesla does lead in vehicles on the road capable of at least some high-level of assistance.

Navigant states:

This Navigant Research Leaderboard evaluates 19 companies developing automated driving systems. These players are rated on 10 criteria: vision; go-to market strategy; partners; production strategy; technology; sales, marketing, and distribution; product capability; product quality and reliability; product portfolio; and staying power.

Using Navigant Research’s proprietary Leaderboard methodology, vendors are profiled, rated, and ranked with the goal of providing an objective assessment of their relative strengths and weaknesses in the development and deployment of automated driving technology.

Here are the Top 10 rankings:

Chevrolet Bolt

General Motors Chairman and CEO Mary Barra shows autonomous Chevrolet Bolt outfitted by Cruise Automation.

Top 10 Vendors:

1.  GM

2.  Waymo

3.  Daimler-Bosch

4.  Ford

5.  Volkswagen Group

6.  BMW-Intel-FCA

7.   Aptiv

8.   Renault-Nissan Alliance

9.  Volvo-Autoliv-Ericsson-Zenuity

10.  PSA

The Top 2 are likely deserving of their high-up placements, especially General Motors with its Cruise Automation Chevy Bolts. Those cars have operated autonomously and mostly problem-free for quite some time now.

Interestingly, if we flip back to Navigant’s April 2017 report on automated driving, we see some shake-ups in the chart:

Navigant Automated Driving Leaderboard April 2017

Source: Navigant

Categories: Tesla

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102 Comments on "Navigant Puts Tesla In Last Place Among Autonomous Vehicles"

newest oldest most voted

GM has blasted past the field into the lead. The Cruise Automation acquisition is turning out to be one of the best business decisions they’ve made.

Go GM!

F150 Brian

+1

Definitely better to acquire an expert than convert old-school internal teams.

Seeing GM, Ford and VW (and other “dinosaurs”) at the top but be driving the Tesla fans nuts :8

mx

That’s hard to believe because you can’t take your hands off the bolt steering wheel while driving.

And, yet, with Tesla you can.

Steve

GM has loaded Bolts that are now in FSD testing. This is the difference between reading headlines all day on Tesla sites run by fanboys. You end up thinking Tesla is the leader. They have been surpassed in the two years since they started doing their own thing.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Google/Waymo has been testing full self driving prototypes, even ones with no steering wheel or foot pedal controls, for some years. If you’re going to use that metric, then Waymo is light-years ahead of GM.

But in the realm of actually deploying semi-self-driving tech in cars driven by the public at large, Tesla is light-years ahead of everyone else, certainly including GM and even including Waymo.

The easiest way to achieve victory is to redefine it, just as you’ve done, Steve. 😉

pjwood1

Tesla were shrewd enough to employ the maximum capabilities of radar and cameras, and avoid the $10,000 LIDAR units. Tesla’s Autopilot is here, today. These units must make battery production look simple. Cadillac wanted $1,700 for adaptive cruise. What will LIDAR cost in a Bolt?

The crazy thing is how companies expect to recover R&D, etc., by operating fleets of AVs, and capturing the price advantage of operating vehicles without a human driver. See? Human are such a bottom line (no, scratch that, “safety”) issue that we must get rid of them, as drivers.

Republicans and Democrats are about to hand our roads over to Google, GM, Tesla. Good thing AVs aren’t yet close to as good as an attentive human.

Hans Blix

Prices of lidar systems are falling fast. In a couple of years those sensors will be quite cheap. Tesla is on the wrong path with planning to not use lidar imho. I guess they will implement lidar in the the future. Isnt the tesla truck also equipped with lidar?

Get Real

I predict that once others lower the price and improve the performance on Lidar that Tesla will start to incorporate it at some point.

Alltesla

Would be good as redundancy once the price hoes fiwn

Kdawg

GM did buy Strobe, who’s goal is to reduce LIDAR sensor cost by 99%

https://www.wired.com/story/gm-cruise-strobe-lidar/

Pushmi-Pullyu

“What will LIDAR cost in a Bolt?”

Five solid state LiDAR units with fixed (non-rotating) mounts x $200 = $1000, for GM or Tesla or anybody else. That allows one LiDAR unit pointed in each of the four cardinal directions, plus one more narrowly focused for longer-range forward detection. Some analysts are predicting a price of just $100 per unit, but I’m guessing that’s too optimistic, at least for the near term.

Welcome to the world of rapidly falling prices for solid-state electronics.

Cosmacelf

I wonder how well LIDAR will work when everyone is using it. My front lidar receiver is going to get blinded by your backwards blasting lidar transmitter.

jelloslug

Nobody really know were Tesla is at with their progress. They don’t have cars covered in stuck on sensors so you don’t know if the Model X two cars in front of you in traffic is an autonomous test mule or not.

Steve

They don’t have the hardware installed to be fully autonomous. No redundancy in hw, etc… Never mind the fact that the current release of AutoPilot isn’t up to par with the Mobile Eye technology of 3 years ago. Disappointing to say the least.

Steven

The hardware is redundant. The required sensors are there, and the hardware is better than the mobileye from three years ago, the software just isn’t. And we don’t know what they’re testing, they probably have a separate fully autonomous team that can do god only knows what currently. As was posted above, you never know if the Model X in front of you is full self driving, and going cross country, or a grandma dropping her grandchildren off. Their vehicles aren’t covered in strapped on LIDAR.

Doggydogworld

Tesla’s hardware is redundant? Seriously? They have dual steering, brake and motor controls with real time diagnostics and failover?

zzzzzzzzzz

Hardware is useless junk without software.

/s It must be easy, we just need to write some software to emulate human brain, who needs these expensive Lidars? Yeah, it will be ready in few weeks, around December 2016. Easy peasy my disciples! /s

Jason

Do any of them have dual steering? I thought the idea was to remove the steering wheel, haven’t heard anyone has dual steering controls.
I don’t really understand all this issue about redundancy, cars don’t have redundancy at the moment and realistically the crash rates are going down.
I can understand redundancy in the computer processors, of something goes wrong there then the car should safely pull over to the side of the road, just the same as what a human driver would do.
Tesla still has Camera, RADAR and SONAR that it can use for this safe maneuver.
Brakes could be considered redundant because you have the generator and the friction brakes, and I guess there is still the mechanical Park brake in the mix.
If redundancy was such a big issue then all cars should be left and right hand drive so that the passenger can take over of the driver has a heart attack, just like what we see in an air plane, but it really isn’t that big a deal.

Six Electrics

Tesla’s self-pimping, if they had anything competitive to demo, even in testing, they would show it.

jelloslug

Like how they were showing off the Semi and the Roadster for months and months before the reveal?

agzand

The current hardware cost is more than $100k. Unless Tesla gives the car away for free, the hardware cannot be there.

Roy_H

Yes, I was very disappointed to find that Tesla has only 1 forward facing camera. You need binocular vision to determine distance and I think the ultimate configuration would have two binocular cameras, one at each side of the windshield. This would provide redundancy, and greatly increased accuracy in defining objects and their distance ahead.

I believe if they did this, it would be superior to LIDAR, as it is, it is not.

Tom

Test drove a Subura Outback. Outstanding execution. It truly extends or assists the driver in being safe rather than making a false claim of autonomy. And yes 2 forward eyes.

jelloslug

There are three forward facing cameras.

Roy_H

Where are the other 2? The only one I could see was top center windshield.

Jolinar_cz

Tesla AP HW version 2 has 3 front cameras!
Tesla AP HW v1 used to have only 1 front camera, but that is not in production anymore…

Tesla also has necessary redundancy with several cameras, sonars and radar as primary sensor which can innitiate breaking maneuver on its own even if cameras are totally blinded.

jahav

Being redundant and fully autonomous are two different things. Being able to drive itself has nothing to do with reliability or engineering tolerances or failures.

I can buy an electric kettle with no redundancies that might cause a fire in case of a sensor failure or I can buy one with many redundancies and sensors. Both of them boil water. One is obviously better.

That said, watching Mr. Bjorn video when his Tesla computer shuts down while driving at pretty scary. I sure do want redundancy and system designed to be fail safe.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“They [Tesla] don’t have the hardware installed to be fully autonomous.”

You’re comparing GM’s small testing fleet with Tesla’s mass produced cars. You have no idea whatsoever how advanced Tesla’s testing fleet is.

But then, this sort of double standard is what we’ve come to expect from serial Tesla bashers like you.

R.S

If it is in CA, then they need to publish disengagement and accident reports, with how much autonomous miles were driven and how often it disengaged.

In 2016 Tesla was really bad, but 2017s aren’t out and GM-Cruise made a massive jump within a year(but they were better to start with).

Tesla is REQUIRED by LAW to file all trips/miles performed by autonomous vehicles it is testing on CA public roads. This isn’t optional.

Tesla recorded a little over 500 miles in 2016 according to CA records. GM’s and Waymo’s recorded miles dwarf Tesla’s. You can’t simulate real world traffic situations in an empty Tesla parking lot, if you were planning on bringing up the point that Tesla is surely doing internal AV testing on its properties.

jelloslug

This may surprise some people, but Tesla may be testing their cars someplace other than California just so they don’t have to report it.

sveno

Well don’t all Autopilot Teslas also operate and gather data in shadow mode?

If the sensor systems in place (LiDAR-less) aren’t capable of true level 5 autonomous driving to begin with, it doesn’t matter how many miles of data are collected.
Tesla’s insistence that LiDAR is not required for L5 autonomous driving is silly. They’ve even been called out on it by experts in the field.

http://www.businessinsider.com/a-gm-exec-says-tesla-self-driving-promises-are-full-of-crap-report-2017-10

earl colby pottinger

We are talking if Tesla can develop the needed software.

If LIDAR is needed to drive a car NOT A SINGLE HUMAN ON THE PLANET CAN DRIVE.

Okay, I have seen what is on the road, you can claim a lot of humans can’t drive but the fact is most of the drivers are doing it with less sensor information than Tesla cars have.

Roy_H

I certainly agree that LIDAR is not required (see my post above about binocular vision). My point is that with a single camera, it is not equivalent to human vision. Try driving with a patch over one eye, possible but depth perception is worse.

There isn’t a camera sensor out there that can see the dynamic range a human eye can, not to mention the tiny (non movable) lens that are being used. Not sure where you live, but here we have dirty roads 4+ months of the year. I can see through this by moving my head around and interpreting g missing information. That is a monumental software problem to solve, and they have crappier sensors then my eyes to begin with. (I’m an engineer and photographer)

Alltesla

Are you using Lidar to drive around?, No

1-2 eyes
2-2 ears
3- brain to process the above

Jolinar_cz

Yea, “experts” used to say that building EVs is not viable…

Forever Green

bro1999 +1

Gasbag

You can’t simulate real world traffic situations

You can record real worlld traffic situations. With AI having training data sets is what it is all about. Tesla should have an advantage but we haven’t seen that in the end product.

I’m not convinced Lidar is required. Most humans rely primarily on stereo vision. If done properly vision and radar could offer an improvement over humans. lidar will likely be cheap enough in two years that it will be worth it as a selling point regardless of impact on efficacy.

mxs

And you expertise or credentials are exactly what? Before we go ahead and take your word for it ….

Everyone seems to be an expert on everything these days. We are such a smart population, really …

Alltesla

Start by telling us what is yours

Pushmi-Pullyu

@MadBro:

😆 😆 😆

Your post should be preserved for use in Logic classes, as an exercise to see how many, of the large number of many logical flaws and fallacious premises it contains, can be spotted and counted by students.

Reality check: Tesla’s fleet includes tens or even hundreds of thousands of cars, all collecting data on road conditions and on the operation of its semi-autonomous cars.

Another reality check: Amazingly enough, the world does not end at the borders of California. There are 49 other States and various territories in the USA, and hundreds of other countries, where Tesla can (and does) conduct testing of its self-driving test mules and prototypes.

CDAVIS

From Article: “It’s really no surprise to see Tesla down on the bottom of the list. Without LIDAR, Tesla vehicles aren’t really capable of self-driving in most situations…”
—————-

Wrong…

It’s the other way around. Using LIDAR as the primary sensory mechanism, LIDAR based autopilot cars aren’t capable of self-driving in adverse weather situations (i.e. light rain & light fog). LIDAR is only useful in a narrow window of ideal environmental conditions which is why Tesla has steered away of relying on LIDAR.

LIDAR is very useful for precise indoor navigation, high altitude target guidance, and SpaceX docking to the International Space Station.

The Navigant Autonomous Driving Leaderboard placing Tesla at the bottom of its ranking is in big part due to non-technical score criteria items (go-to market strategy; partners; production strategy; sales, marketing, and distribution) which bias against Tesla because of Tesla’s decision to bring autopilot R&D in-house and be and Tesla products being sold only through Tesla owner retail channels.

Seems to me that Navigant intentionally designed the “study” to bias against Tesla…

Steve

Why did you wait until the end to prop up your agenda?

“Seems to me that Navigant intentionally designed the “study” to bias against Tesla…”

Of course you think it’s biased against Tesla. Anything critical of Tesla or showing Tesla in less than flattering light is “biased” to you TSLA defenders.

Alltesla

Because Tesla doesn’t use lidar at this point you are critical of them? Why don’t you wait and see, maybe they are up to something. It’s not because they don’t jump on the lidar band wagon that you have to be critical of them. It’s easy to get on the band wagon when you are a follower.

R.S

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=24&v=IY7O_-nWUbk

LIDAR can already handle snow and rain. And fog is also a problem with cameras. But for LIDAR there are already algorithms that can even see through fire, smoke or fog, better than a regular camera.

https://spinoff.nasa.gov/Spinoff2015/ps_5.html

sveno

You call this snow and rain? This is mild weather even for older LIDAR tech. How about this weather: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UoZLaLSW5lg

earl colby pottinger

Goodness, you have never driven up here in Canada during winter. That was clear weather to me.

Bunny

+1

CDAVIS

… for those that bring up that recent advancements in LIDAR algorithms allow filtering out the noise from fog, rain, & snow:

That method thus far has proven to work under limited conditions when the read target is near the LIDAR sensor… the further out the target the higher the probability of total noise fill-in… sort of like running between rain drops in a straigh line… the longer the run the less chance of having a clear run path… thus the longer the target the lower the confidence of the return data.

Doggydogworld

If the competition was lidar only you might have some kind of point. But lidar+camera beats camera alone in every scenario.

That said, the Navigant report was goofy last year and it’s still goofy.

CDAVIS

@Doggyworld said: “But lidar+camera beats camera alone in every scenario“
—————

I agree with that.

But Tesla in addition to cameras is using multiple sonar and radar. The advanced radar algorithms that Tesla has been developing and currently testing will likely prove out to be more reliable in real-world marginal weather driving than using LIDAR.

Doggydogworld

Waymo, Cruise/GM, etc. all have radar and ultrasound, too. And Tesla’s “advanced radar algorithms” was just another Musk throwaway comment.

Tesla has been flailing since the MobilEye divorce. They’re way behind now. IMHO they’ll end up licensing from Waymo and giving refunds to anyone who paid for FSD.

sveno

I also agree that this is the only true statement in the whole article: More sensors = better.

However that doesn’t automatically mean that Teslas implementation has no chance of operation at the same performance.

Pushmi-Pullyu

CDAVIS said:

“LIDAR based autopilot cars aren’t capable of self-driving in adverse weather situations (i.e. light rain & light fog). LIDAR is only useful in a narrow window of ideal environmental conditions which is why Tesla has steered away of relying on LIDAR.”

That’s pretty close to 100% wrong. Both LiDAR and radar are somewhat degraded in light rain, but both are still operable.

Tesla isn’t avoiding LiDAR because it doesn’t work as well. On the contrary, LiDAR works almost infinitely better at “painting” what surrounds the car, for a clear virtual picture of the immediate environment. The picture from radar is much, much fuzzier.

Tesla is avoiding LiDAR because it was much more expensive than radar units. But with rapidly falling prices for solid state LiDAR units, hopefully Tesla is already working on integrating that into its test mules and prototypes. If Tesla continues to refuse to integrate LiDAR into its self-driving sensor system, then I predict (opinion, not fact) that it’s going to be left hopelessly far behind.

CDAVIS

@Pushmi-Pullyu said: “ Both LiDAR and radar are somewhat degraded in light rain, but both are still operable… Tesla isn’t avoiding LiDAR because it doesn’t work as well. On the contrary, LiDAR works almost infinitely better at “painting” what surrounds the car..”
—————————-

Two years ago… Elon Musk said:

“[Tesla] Working on using existing radar by itself (decoupled from camera) w temporal smoothing to create a coarse point cloud, like lidar… Good thing about radar is that, unlike lidar (which is visible wavelenght), it can see through rain, snow, fog, and dust”

source: https://insideevs.com/elon-musk-tesla-doesnt-need-lidar-will-tweak-radar-to-be-lidar-like/

CDAVIS

Upgrading Autopilot: Seeing the World in Radar:

https://www.tesla.com/blog/upgrading-autopilot-seeing-world-radar

EVShopper

I think the real reason they have avoided LiDar so far, is the units are bulky and would be hard to integrate seamlessly into their vehicles. And much of the Tesla appeal is the sleekness of their vehicles and aero efficiency.

Pinewold

Sorry, but real world testing of autopilot is no match for billions of miles of testing in shadow mode. WayMo made a critical mistake In letting the software drive first and many car companies have followed them down the Erin path. Shadow mode let’s the software learn from real world mistakes thousands of times a day.

zzzzzzzzzz

We had heard about “shadow mode” as yet another Musk’s “secret weapon” that will help him take over the world for years now from his disciples.

The reality doesn’t confirm it. It just went downhill after MobilEye kicked out Tesla.

Shadow mode usefulness is very limited as you can’t learn much without being able to take decisions and get feedback. It is like learning how to play violin by watching world star concert on TV all day long :/

Tim

It’s nothing like that analogy at all.

Software that trains itself is the only possible way for things like AI (which full automation truly requires) to develop at a fast enough pace to be useful.

The fact is, no one knows whether the ongoing data collected by Teslas on the road will be critical to Tesla getting to FSD. But it’s ludicrous to suggest that software that is able to train itself off of this real world data won’t benefit from it.

As to an analogy, you hardly need one. How did we all learn how to drive? Others taught us, but we also had years of observation as passengers in cars that formed the basis of our own driving capabilities. Same will happen with software.

przemo_li

Pfffff.

You are right as soon as somebody invents artificial human brains.

Because computers learn exactly as you described it…

Try processing input. Compare output to real thing. Too much difference? Stir computation equations a bit. Repeat until success.

Forever Green

At the top of the article it says, “It’s really no surprise to see Tesla down on the bottom of the list.” I’m not only surprised, I am shocked! What’s also shocking is to see who is number one. General Motors? Are you serious?
Good for GM.

Jason

I’m certainly surprised to see some of the other companies up there. It is not common knowledge to me that the likes of Ford even has autonomous driving systems, let alone they are so high on the list. Maybe they should just list the underlying developers, like MobiEye, rather than the end user companies like Ford?

Pushmi-Pullyu

Obvious conclusion: GM paid for this so-called “analysis”.

Given the history of the wildly contradictory conclusions of disparate so-called “analyses” from Lucent/Navigant, nobody should take anything here seriously. The only real value here is the amusement value in seeing Tesla Hater cultists fall all over themselves in trying to make this out to be something real.

😀 😀 😀

WadeTyhon

I’m not surprised to see GM and Waymo out in front.

Waymo has been doing it the longest and GM bought a company that had the experience built in. Which is smart. If the tools already exist to accomplish your goals don’t build a new tool.

It could easily be argued that a lack of Lidar makes future Tesla systems inferior to the others. And they’re intentionally making it harder on themselves by doing so. But I don’t know that Tesla should be dead last…

Alltesla

The lidar that the so called leaders are currently using will not be the ones used 2 or 4 years down the road

Pushmi-Pullyu

Probably true, given how fast prices are dropping on solid state LiDAR units.

But then, that’s also a good reason to think Tesla’s refusal to incorporate LidAR units is also a temporary situation.

ffbj

What a joke.

Tesla being at the bottom is certainly a joke (on them), considering all the public hoopla about “Autopilot” and how great they’ve said it is. Tesla used to be the leader in the field…now it is sucking the e-exhaust of the competitors that have leapfrogged it.

ffbj

Yeah, right. I do think buying Cruise was a good move, as you say. GM would clearly would just screw things up if they try to do it themselves.

(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous

That’s typical when a company doesn’t know sh1t in that field. They go buy another company with the knowledge and expertise that knows their sh1t.
What often happens is the purchasing company will eventually ruin that sh1t then sell that division off stating non profitable branch of the business.

HVACman

You mean like how Tesla bought assembly-line expert Grohmann to help them with their main Model 3 assembly line and bought automated-assembly-expert Perbix in November to straighten out their Gigafactory battery module and pack assembly line?

No one has a monopoly on in-house expertise.

And then fired one of the execs of that company they acquired, making them the scapegoats of the Model 3 production “bottleneck” fiasco.

Bunny

Good example of that is Tesla buying that German automation company that knew how build cars, just sayin.

But that was a good thing because it’s been obvious they needed help in that area. Much better than thinking you can do everything in house with limited talent.

JeremyK

Well, somebody at GM knew enough to buy Cruise, and somebody knew that Telsa was heading down a dead-end road by attempting full autonomy without LIDAR.

Cruise has been under GM now for a couple of years and it appears to be a very excellent partnership, based on the real world fleet they’ve developed and their current ranking among their industry peers.

Alltesla

Tesla was not a leader in the field, mobileye was/ is. Now, Tesla has a chance to be a leader in the field

HVACman
The ultimate measurement of autonomous capability will not be related to the arguments made on this forum. The SAE has established exacting standards of performance for the various levels of autonomy and the state governments and the Federal DOT is likely to use those standards as guides for certifying AVs. The governments have no biases “for” or “against” Tesla, GM, Waymo, or anyone else. SAE standards are used as guides for numerous regulatory programs. The chart represents where the various manufacturers’ execution-to-date and plans stand relative to meeting those standards, along with their marketing, manufacturing, and cost-control execution and plans. We arm-chair engineers can debate radar vs Lidar vs cameras and various processors as much as we want. The real winners will be determined by who is government-certified first to put L4 and L5 AVs out the retail market, which AV products the market elects to actually buy the most, and who makes a profit doing so. When that happens, the debates about “which” sensing and processing technologies are “better” will be moot. As silly as the debate of how many angels fit on the head of a pin. Applying a little “physics” to the debate, the comparison between Navigant’s… Read more »
earl colby pottinger

It is not just meeting the government specs, the cost of meeting those specs matters too.

Tesla has gone for the low cost hardware, expensive to develop software approach.

Most of the other have gone the most expensive hardware, easier (not cheap) to develop software approach.

The costs of the hardware will have a big effect of the base price of the car since in all cases the software needs the basic development to only be done once and then spread out across all the cars that use it.

But the hardware costs have to be paid for each and every car.

Get Real

ECP nails it!

ALL Tesla cars (built since Oct 2016) have the hardware for Level 4 and when they get the software done ALL these cars will be Level 4 (contingent on Govt regulations of course).

ALL the others are now building VERY EXPENSIVE, customized versions of a model or two that only fleets will buy and will only be used in certain geofenced areas.

Unlike what shills, shorters and haters like zzzzzz, MadBro, and 6 FoolCells say, Tesla’s approach will lead to much more affordable self-driving vehicles that you can actually own.

Texas FFE

In October 2016 we all thought it was just going to be any day and then Level 4 would get activated. Now it’s a year and a half later and there’s still no Level 4. What happened?

Are the governments refusing to license Tesla L4 AV systems? Is Tesla going to have to install new hardware to get the government license? What are owners going to do if the L4 systems they were promised never materialize?

If the L4 systems don’t materialize very soon this could result in the biggest class action law suit Tesla has faced yet.

Get Real

Well Chuck, If you paid attention then you would know that Tesla is methodically developing their software in house and only releasing it piece by piece as they validate for safety and utility.

It is taking time and in today’s society of instant gratification that does lead to inpatience and the opportunity for serial anti-Tesla trolls like yourself to FUD but they will get there and unlike the others have a relatively affordable Level 4 available on ALL their cars not just a few franken-cars for fleets.

Texas FFE

So basically, Chuck, you have absolutely no idea why Tesla has not activated a system that began installing in every Tesla fifteen months ago and you have absolutely no idea when, if ever, Tesla will activate the Level 4 system. But keep up the good work, I’m sure Tesla appreciates your blind loyalty.

DJ

Yep, that’s it.

Sooo yet another thing that many of us have been saying for quite a while, and being called a troll, shorter, hater, etc. in the process, has come to pass.

No real shocker there. That said, I sure do appreciate everyone that ponied up $5k or whatever it was for “FSD”.

Get Real

There can’t be two Chucks so you will have to be Chucky.

I’m wasting my time arguing with someone as dense as you that continuously rants and raves about how Tesla will not allow you to use it with your car that can’t even accept it.

In any case, Tesla has activated their system, but only some features are available now with new ones being added via OTA as they get validated.

Get Real

Sorry, left out that TexaSFFUD is still angry about Tesla’s SC network.

As far as people paying for Autopilot, they have a choice you know.

JeremyK

It’s not FUD that real people paid for this autonomous hardware and have nothing to show for it.

Doggydogworld

“Tesla” and “methodically” in the same sentence, wow!

I once specialized in s/w that allowed inexpensive h/w to do things that “required” expensive, custom h/w. We had a saying:

Hardware Always Wins

Sometimes it took a year, sometimes two or three, but the “expensive” hardware inevitably got so cheap that our software no longer offered a cost savings. We had to get our software out quickly, otherwise the window to sell it would close.

That’s happening to Tesla. In mid-2016 they had a 2.5-3 year window before LIDAR got cheap enough. Had they released FSD on schedule they’d have enjoyed a window of exclusivity. But Musk massively underestimated the task and they’ve pretty much blown their window. They need to dump their internal effort and license the tech from someone.

Get Real

Really, so where are all those FSD cars that you or I can afford and buy?

Maybe when that happens you will be correct but not until then.

JeremyK

+1

Pushmi-Pullyu
@HVACman: Thank you! sir, for stepping back and giving us a much-needed broad scope view of the situation. Far too much focus in individual comments here on one or another aspect of the total picture, such as LiDAR vs radar. I do think that Tesla’s refusal to incorporate LiDAR tech is holding it back in that one area, but that’s only the area of building up a SLAM* virtual reality simulation of the car’s environment. That’s not holding back Tesla’s advancements in other areas, such as virtual mapping of all the roads which Tesla cars drive on, nor the ability of Tesla cars to steer (and when necessary, brake) the cars to drive safely in real-world situations. *SLAM stands for Simultaneous Localization And Mapping technology, a process whereby a robot or a device can create a map of its surroundings, and orient itself properly within this map in real time. * * * * * However, HVACman, I think you have overstated your case here: “The chart represents where the various manufacturers’ execution-to-date and plans stand relative to meeting those standards, along with their marketing, manufacturing, and cost-control execution and plans.” I submit that it’s not where the various auto… Read more »
Texas FFE
I think I need to point out that SuperCruise is now available on Cadillac models. SuperCruise may not be a sophisticated as Tesla AutoPilot but it does show GM has a Level 3 AV system currently on the market. Tesla may have been the first to offer a L3 AV system but that novelty is wearing off. I think I should also point out that GM and Ford have real Level 5 AV systems (no occupant required) that are supposed to go into production in the next year or so. These L5 systems will not be available to the general public but will get sold to ride share groups, taxi companies and the like. I think the target market for Tesla AV systems is completely different than the technology leaders which may explain why Tesla is now lagging behind. Right now the metric of the best advanced AV system is very complicated but in ten years from now advanced AV systems will be standardized. Just like Level 1 AV systems (cruise control) are now, there won’t be much difference between the L5 AV system of one manufacturer and the L5 AV system of another manufacturer. The big question right now… Read more »
Vexar

Your best post here, ever. The only thing I’ll add is that Navigant favors its own. Most of their customers are in the oil and fossil fuel industry, and many of their research analysts have held positions in those industries as well.

Navigant does not want Tesla to succeed.

Did anyone read the entire report, or just the free summary which has no detail as to their argument?

This is all about LIDAR and Tesla stands apart as anti-LIDAR. Do we, as humans, need LIDAR? No.

Doggydogworld

Great post. I’ll add one thing. Since LIDAR systems, like the ones Waymo is deploying in AZ, are first to market they’ll set the bar for regulators. Any system which can’t match their performance will not be allowed to operate with an empty driver’s seat. “We’re twice as likely to wreck, but a few hundred bucks cheaper” won’t cut it.

“More likely to kill you, but cheaper” isn’t exactly a good marketing message for Autopilot, anyway. Tesla missed the window, but they’re good at changing course. They can license from Waymo or someone and still have the first FSD cars for end-users.

Get Real

Navigant sucks period.

Their “predictions” on battery costs shows how far behind the curve they are and/or how captured they are by their fossil fuel clients.

Again, I predict that Tesla probably will end up adding Lidar in the future once the costs have come down.

DJ

By your logic them Tesla sucks because they never meet their deadlines, I mean aspirational goals. Heck, even Elon said Lidar wasn’t necessary so if they do add Lidar that’s even more fire to back up how much they suck. Was that your intent to actually say that Tesla sucks? I can’t imagine it was but thanks for the unintentional honesty!

The typical response from people who don’t like the findings of a study is to attack the company that came out with a study.

Simple fact is that other self driving companies have far fewer touches per 1,000 miles than Tesla does. If Tesla can solve that problem then they’ll likely shoot to the top of the study, and really who cares if they add Lidar or not other than it will be yet another example of Elon saying something that isn’t true, but until then self driving means not having to touch the wheel and when your solution requires a lot of touches you are obviously not going to be at the top!

Get Real

The only person who sucks are the Serial Anti-Tesla trolls here of whom DJ has joined their ranks with his bizarro logic.

The thing about PEVS and autonomous cars is that like everything else, the market will decide.

Based on current market trends I like how Tesla is positioned.

Since the Serial Anti-Tesla trolls sliming up this site will not be buying Tesla’s (unless they are hypocrites which is always a good possibility), their reasons for posting as “concern trolls” is pretty suspect.

Pushmi-Pullyu

DJ continued his serial Tesla hater campaign:

“By your logic them Tesla sucks…”

Troll, you wouldn’t recognize logic if it came up and bit you on the arse!

Putting your obnoxious, Tesla-hater words into someone else’s mouth and then using that as a basis for your straw man argument, isn’t merely as far away from logic as anyone could get, it’s also an advanced case of trolling.

Now, go crawl back into the sewer you came from, and this time stay there.

Tim

Can someone point me to where I can buy a car from any of those “leaders”. With the exception of Tesla, what features can I buy in a car today?

The old camera adage applies. The best camera is the one you have with you.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Navigant continues to embarrass itself with such ridiculous “analyses” of the automotive industry.

While I certainly agree that Tesla’s refusal to put LiDAR into its cars is an ongoing barrier to reaching full Level 4 or Level 5 autonomy, at the same time it’s exceedingly clear that Tesla is the current leader in actually deploying semi-self-driving tech in cars driven by the public at large.

So, which company is actually ahead in the race for full autonomy depends largely on what you use for your yardstick. Navigant clearly chose a metric that is a much better fit to Tesla’s competitors, and you can be sure they were paid by a customer to choose that particular “yardstick” to produce the results the customer wanted.

Navigant’s “analysis” plus a couple of dollars will get you the cheapest cup of coffee that Starbucks sells.