In “Era Three,” Tesla Will Release Its $25,000 EV

NOV 16 2013 BY ERIC LOVEDAY 26

Tesla Model S

Tesla Model S

ValueWalk compiled Tesla-specific information from Barclay’s analyst Brian A. Johnson to lay out what’s being called “growth eras” for Tesla Motors.

According to Barclay’s there are three “eras” in Tesla’s near future.

The graphic shows these “eras,” but will add that Barclay’s is using these “eras” for guidance in offering financial advice.

Of note is the mention of a $25,000 Tesla EV in “Era Three.” This is not a vehicle we’ve heard even a peep of from Tesla, so we think Barclay’s is just guessing on that one.valuewalk tesla

Okay, here’s what ValueWalk says of these “eras;”

“Barclays came up with three possible growth eras for Tesla Motors Inc based on the company’s product plans. Era One is the current phase that began in 2012 and will continue through 2016. It will see the launch and subsequent growth of Model S cars and Model X SUVs.”

“Era Two will kick off in 2017 and will last until 2022. The company will launch Gen III vehicles during this phase that will be more affordable. Though Tesla Motors Inc (management said that Gen III will be a mass-market vehicle, Barclays believes that it won’t be for the masses. According to Brian Johnson, the company will price Gen III in the range of $40,000-$45,000. So, its price will be similar to Audi A4 or BMW 3 Series.”

“Era Three will begin in 2023, and that’s when the company would bring truly mass-market cars with market price of around $25,000.”

Source: ValueWalk

Categories: Tesla

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26 Comments on "In “Era Three,” Tesla Will Release Its $25,000 EV"

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Maybe Era Three will be the F-150 competitor.

They could save some money on the interior.

Jouni Valkonen

No, F-150 competitor will be released simultaneously with Gen III car. Base price will be around $40k and productions starts around 2017.

Brain Shur

The hypothesis that Elon can produce a $40k F-150 is absurd. If he can, because of “battery developments”, then so can his competitors. Elon is not doing the battery development, just adopting it on completion. He has a big dirty car (the S) adopted by the very rich fake greens of CA. Tesla will be gone in 5 years when the Gen III never arrives; just like the 40kw S did not arrive. Simply put Elon has never shown he can do anything that WAS cost effective! His false promises are akin to Madoff.

Ad van der Meer

As always, innovation proves to be harder than expected. That said, Tesla is transforming the automobile industry. Do you think Mercedes, BMW and Porsche would have introduced (plug in) hybrids if there had not been the Tesla Model S? All OEM’s are working on plug in cars, but Tesla and Nissan-Renault are leading the pack and there is no indication that the competition is catching up.

Brian

Yes, his competitors COULD build an electric truck. They could also build a Model S competitor today if they wanted to. They have all proven they don’t want to, so Tesla has the market to themselves. The same will still be true in 3 years – this big companies are slow to change.

Dr. Kenneth Noisewater

If he can, because of “battery developments”, then so can his competitors.

Nope, his competitors will be stupidly continuing on with overpriced proprietary prismatic batteries while he uses standardized 18650 cells that already have billions of dollars worth of manufacturing capability and years/decades of process maturity behind them, in a non-proprietary competitive market.

The only way prismatics win is if there are cost and density improvements that for whatever technical reason cannot be applied to 18650 cells.

If his competitors can simply take advantage of the same densities and costs as Tesla, then why haven’t they yet? Model S’ battery density is nearly 2x that of the brand new BMW i3, and its cost per kWh is likely far less.

Nelson

I wonder what Elon Musk thinks about Barclay’s attempt to roadmap Tesla’s future.
Probably best just to ignore Barclay’s and not burn any bridges.

NPNS!
Volt#671

Anon

“Of note is the mention of a $25,000 Tesla EV in “Ear Three.”

Ear three??? Three ears would be pretty shocking. 😉

Foo

Also a pretty big ear to fit a Tesla.

So far Tesla has exceeded everything they have promised. I don’t doubt they will make the Gen III ,25% smaller vehicle in 2015 , with major volume in 2016, 200+ mile range $35K before incentives. . In fact they could exceed the promises as they always do.

I even made a website about with any FACTS as Elon releases them.
http://www.TeslaWanabeOwners.webs.com

Brian

The information on your site is out of date with Tesla’s plans for Gen III. Just read through some articles here on Tesla, and you’ll know what I mean.

io

Musk/Tesla certainly delivered lots of great things, for which they deserve full credit. That every single one of their all-to-frequent promises was exceeded just isn’t one of them, however.
Some counter-examples I can think of:
– Price of the Roadster, raised after people made deposits.
– Gen 2 (Model S now) pricing, initially announced to be about half the Roadster’s.
– Supercharger installations falling short of earlier announcements.
– Battery swap stations.
– Model S vampire draw: fix repeatedly postponed, then only partial.

Joe Huber

The 40 kWh Model S was about half the cost of a roadster and even the current 60 kWh version costs significantly less than the Roadster.

Superchargers are largely on schedule. A few promised ones haven’t happened yet, but a few unannounced ones did happen.

Model S vampire draw has been virtually eliminated with the software update

io

The 40 kW*h Model S was canceled before a single one was built. Anyway, my point wasn’t whether 71k$ (cheapest Model S available) is “about” 55k$ (the base Roadster was 109k$) or how “meh, close enough” other commitments were met, but only to put a touch of reality into @Jim’s assessment.

Rick Danger

Barclay’s estimate for Gen 3 is probably accurate, in stating a $40,000-$45,000 price. If Tesla offers 2 sizes of battery packs, and a performance model, the “P85” version will probably top out about where the Model S starts, at $65,000-$70,000.

It would take a Gen 4 car to really hit mass-market affordability in the $25,000-$30,000 range. The question is, does Tesla really want to go there?

David Murray

I’ve really wondered that myself. It would be like BMW building an $18,000 car. It just doesn’t fit with their business image. I suspect Tesla will remain the halo brand for electric vehicles and I doubt you’ll see anything in the $20K to $30K range.. I suspect GM, Toyota, and Nissan are the ones going to be filling that need.

Brian

I’ve heard this argument quite often, but I don’t believe it. Tesla never said they want to stay a small, premium brand. They said they want to work from the top down. What you’re saying is that they will never go down market. Yet Elon Musk has implied that he wants to be the next Toyota – aka the largest auto maker in the world.

Steve Strange

I suppose they could introduce a lower-priced nameplate… I just don’t see it being a priority for them within the next 15-20 years though.

George Parrott

Actually it might be possible for Tesla to make a $25,000 base model as a GenIV car. It even makes a good business case in terms of real volume. With THREE platforms/price levels Tesla would truly be competitive with pretty much all the really major players.

Dr. Kenneth Noisewater

If he’s made such statements publicly, then he must be confident in upcoming battery density and cost improvements. If he wants to sell a $25k EV in the kilohundred range, it’ll need at least 40kWh of usable battery. A 500Wh/kg battery which costs $75/kWh would do the trick.

scott moore

In era 4, Elon Musk has most of his body replaced with electromechanical equivalents and becomes a reclusive superhero.

Dr. Kenneth Noisewater

On MARS!

Jouni Valkonen

I think that this refers to rumored “Model C”, i.e. small compact car, comparable to Mercedes A Class.

George Parrott

When does the Model Y arrive? I recall seeing somewhere that a Tesla had a sense of ho or in their model designations.

S. E X. Y?

George Parrott

Humor that is above..

I don’t think this is guessing on the part of Barclay’s. They are reacting on recent comments made by Musk. I have watched too many interviews recently to remember in which one it was revealed. But to paraphrase Musk, he stated that after the Gen III vehicle they would do another optimization of the platform (4th Gen) and develop an “even cheaper” vehicle. This seems to go directly in contrast to the recent Musk comments that Tesla would only have 6 vehicles in their lineup at a time. There was no mention of size of the 4th gen vehicle platform or if it would replace Gen III or add to it. Barclay’s seems to think it will be a new vehicle line. I see Tesla lineup as Model S, Model X, Model E, Model Y (Gen III CUV), Roadster (on Gen III platform Model R?), and Truck (Model Truck?, Model T seems to be taken). I really wasn’t sure how to take the 4th gen platform comments from Musk. Keep in mind that we are talking 7+ years away at this point, so things are bound to change. Until Tesla produces Model E at a starting price of $35k (on… Read more »