IEA Says Global EV Fleet Will Triple In 2 Years

JUN 19 2018 BY MARK KANE 16

The International Energy Agency forecast in its latest Global Electric Vehicles Outlook that the number of plug-in electric cars will triple in the next two years.

More than one million plug-in cars were sold in 2017, so the total global fleet exceeded 3 million (54% up year-over-year).

IEA sees strong policy and falling battery costs as the main forces that drives plug-in sales to new record levels every year.

Read Also – Plug-In Electric Car Sales Hit 1,224,000 in 2017

Depending on the scenario, the number of plug-in cars could reach 125 to 220 million by 2030.

The outlook for EVs is bright, but requires ambitious targets (International Energy Agency – Global EV Outlook 2018)

The biggest plug-in car market is of course China (580,000 cars in 2017, up 72% year-over-year), but nothing compares to the market share in Nordic countries.

“Nordic countries remain leaders in market share. Electric cars accounted for 39% of new car sales in Norway, making it the world leader in electric vehicle (EV) market share. In Iceland, new EV sales were 12% of the total while the share reached 6% in Sweden. Germany and Japan also saw strong growth, with sales more than doubling in both countries from their 2016 levels.”

Only a handful of countries have significant market share (International Energy Agency – Global EV Outlook 2018)

The number of publicly accessible charging stations worldwide was ~430,000 at the end of 2017, according to the report.

See Global EV Outlook 2018 here.

Bloomberg’s review of the report notes four major points:

  • China will remain biggest market
  • The oil market finally will start to feel the demand displaced by EVs
  • Governments will recognize falling taxes from road fuel (up to $42 billion by 2030) although we believe it will be offset by higher taxes and higher price of the vehicles
  • There will be need to build at least 10 more battery factories, of a gigafactory size, by 2025 to meet the demand of nearly 800 GWh annually.

“Electric mobility is not limited to cars. In 2017, the stock of electric buses rose to 370,000 from 345,000 in 2016, and electric two-wheelers reached 250 million. The electrification of these modes of transport has been driven almost entirely by China, which accounts for more than 99% of both electric bus and two-wheeler stock, though registrations in Europe and India are also growing.

Charging infrastructure is also keeping pace. In 2017, the number of private chargers at homes and workplaces was estimated at almost 3 million worldwide. In addition, there were about 430,000 publicly accessible chargers worldwide in 2017, a quarter of which were fast chargers. Fast chargers are especially important in densely populated cities and serve an essential role in boosting the appeal of EVs by enabling long-distance travel.

The growth of EVs has largely been driven by government policy, including public procurement programmes, financial incentives reducing the cost of purchase of EVs, tightened fuel-economy standards and regulations on the emission of local pollutants, low- and zero-emission vehicle mandates and a variety of local measures, such as restrictions on the circulation of vehicles based on their pollutant emission performances.

The rapid uptake of EVs has also been helped by progress made in recent years to improve the performance and reduce the costs of lithium-ion batteries. However, further battery cost reductions and performance improvements are essential to improve the appeal of EVs. These are achievable with a combination of improved chemistries, increased production scale and battery sizes, according to the report. Further improvements are possible with the transition to technologies beyond lithium-ion.

Innovations in battery chemistry will also be needed to maintain growth as there are supply issues with core elements that make up lithium-ion batteries, such as nickel, lithium and cobalt. The supply of cobalt is particularly subject to risks as almost 60% of the global production of cobalt is currently concentrated in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Additionally, the capacity to refine and process raw cobalt is highly concentrated, with China controlling 90% of refining capacity. Even accounting for ongoing developments in battery chemistry, cobalt demand for EVs is expected to be between 10 and 25 times higher than current levels by 2030.

The report notes that ensuring the increased uptake of EVs while meeting social and environmental sustainability goals requires the adoption and enforcement of minimum standards on labour and environmental conditions. The environmental sustainability of batteries also requires the improvement of end-of-life and material recycling processes.

Looking forward, supportive policies and cost reductions are likely to lead to continued significant growth in the EV market. In the IEA’s New Policies Scenario, which takes into account current and planned policies, the number of electric cars is projected to reach 125 million units by 2030. Should policy ambitions rise even further to meet climate goals and other sustainability targets, as in the EV30@30 Scenario, the number of electric cars on the road could be as high as 220 million in 2030.”

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16 Comments on "IEA Says Global EV Fleet Will Triple In 2 Years"

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Here’s another Wacko Koch Bros attack: Public Transit.
Why? Not because they’re anti-tax, a tax they won’t pay.
But, because if you’re sitting in Traffic Your BURNING MORE GAS.

If public transit effectively increases traffic flow, they lose.
Another Republican example of Make the World Worse, so I Make More Profit$.

And this is why CHINA is being made Great Again by these wacko billionaires.
Making America worse, makes China better.
They don’t have an oligarchy of insane rich.

“They don’t have an oligarchy of insane rich.”

This line alone shows you haven’t a clue what you’re talking about.

Google: 2018-06-19 Climate Koch-brothers-public-Transit. New York Times.

That was a weird article in the paper. Hope the people living there will see the advantage of a well working transit system. Hope they ask the queation about who will profit if they choose no, and who pays for the expenses with people knocking on doors. Follow the money..
Just make the richest few (like the Koch brothers) pay more tax to pay for more of the cost, for a public transit system, like they do in other countries. Then the rich people can drive on roads with no congestion. . . as long as the public transit system is cheaper then driving a car – and as long as it is on time and works well.

It’s been one of the Big Oil/Car cartel’s tactic since the 1930’s.

It’s just not “oil companies” and the Knock brothers – there is definitely some history around this with the car companies – Some documented history around GM, as there were convictions in 1949 (so this isn’t a recent EV only tactic), also the below does a reasonable job pointing out some of the counter-arguments..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_streetcar_conspiracy

As electric vehicles get power from Local Utilities, that means MORE TAXES for the STATE, just not in gas taxes. And as local utilities increase hires and solar, wind and battery capacity that’s also More Jobs and more people paying taxes.

Transportation fuel, especially from the NorthEast is money that Escaped to Iraq,Iran,Saudi Arabia and Qatar. That’s escaped profits and jobs, that will now be Sourced In America.

And NOTE: China is the biggest market by Mandate.
The reasoning is to clean up Chinese city pollution as soon as possible, but it’s by mandate and government incentive and subsidy. Because they don’t have a wacko political party to argue against Pollution and for Profit for the few.

No, because China has no backtalk at all, opposition is governmentally prohibited.
To think China does it for pollution reasons is laughable, it’s a nice secondary effect, but China despite it’s usually successful tactics failed to compete in the ICE car market at all.

Now though: Due to rising costs in the West and better trade connections Chemical companies have moved to China or at least Asia giving them the ability to easily produce batteries on home turf and when you look at the line-up of Chinese electric cars sprouting in western countries it’s easy to see the government is trying to compete again and take the crown they have so long wanted, but never got.

The EV mandates in China are forcing outside countries to compete, according to their rules, against their own companies.

Electric buses in cities, was for pollution reasons.
Well and economic.

Sure they are doing it for pollution, mainly when there is alot of pollution in a countries Capital, then things start to change (Beijing) – There is actually alot of historical precedent for this – Namely, London, and the introduction of sewers to cities (versus the old night-soil men) of the Victorian area).

Once the political leadership can’t breath, then things are due to change:

https://www.cbsnews.com/pictures/beijing-pollution-before-after-smog-pictures/8/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Stink

Wow. This is big news in that IEA has never used an exponential or geometric growth target before. It’s had a deep history of predicting nearly zero linear growth. Are we near the tipping point?

Well, the model is clearly geometric with a constant growth in geometric (percentage) terms. Can such a curve seriously be said to have a tipping point..? It looks the same everywhere…

For market share, such growth obviously can’t go on, since the logical cap on market share is 100%. Say it doubles every year from 1% to 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64… and then what?

Everyone and their grandmother agrees EVs are going to take over. Nobody knows what the curve will look like, even those who try to hide that behind fancy “models”.

“and then what?” Then the top of the normal “S” curve.

I think the innovation curve slows down at 50% and then levels off somewhere around 75% where there’s slower uptake. Probably for economic reasons.

“Electric mobility is not only cars” : Over 10 million electric bicycles were sold worldwide. I would say that’s a number that shouldn’t be ignored in an article like this

to make up for the missing tax revenue, people need to start demanding a carbon tax