Highlights From Bloomberg’s Electric Vehicle Outlook 2018

AUG 25 2018 BY MARK KANE 30

According to the latest Bloomberg’s Electric Vehicle Outlook 2018, the plug-in electric vehicle market is bound to succeed.

The sales of plug-in electric cars are going to increase with tremendous pace, reaching 11 million units annually by 2025 and 30 million by 2030. In 2040 sales should stand at 60 million, which will be 55% of the total anticipated volume. The total fleet of plug-in cars is expected to stand at 559 million in 2040 (33% of all cars).

We know that some expect even faster pace of growth, but even that forecast means we are just one generation away from the fade of ICE.

Nissan LEAF CHAdeMO charging

The electrification will be lead by China, the biggest automotive market. Chinese share in plug-in car sales to be 50% in 2025 but then will decrease below 40% in 2030.

The main force behind the upwards push of electric cars is to be battery prices – lower and lower. In 2010, battery packs were estimated to cost $1,000 per kWh, while in 2017 just $209 per kWh. By 2030 Bloomberg sees $70 per kWh possible. At the same time energy density is higher so are the range of new models.

All that should enable cost-parity on an unsubsidized basis between BEV and ICE cars to start in 2024. By 2029 it’s expected that BEVs will become competitive in almost all segments of the market. Why would one purchase gasoline car then, if the all-electric mid-range or long-range car would be at a lower price and generate savings on fuel? A foretaste of this phenomenon we already see in the high-end segment, where long-range, premium/luxury BEVs are comparably priced and often with better performances than ICE.

The market for electric buses, will be developing even quicker than cars – the routes are fixed, the emissions are more severe and there are depots/bus stops to facilitate charging stations.

On the other hand, the market of battery materials like cobalt and lithium will be pretty volatile. By 2040 electrified buses and cars will displace a combined 7.3 million barrels per day.

Source: Electric Vehicle Outlook 2018

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30 Comments on "Highlights From Bloomberg’s Electric Vehicle Outlook 2018"

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Viktor

Only 1,6 million in2018? I believe we will come mush closer if not pass 2 million this year already.

Jiří

You are right. 1,6 million would mean only 30% growth. Now we are at 65 % (749729 vs. 454892 in 1H 2017 vs. 2018).

Roy_H

second number should be for 7 months, 547,727 so up 36% times last years 1,227,117 = 1,679,678

I don’t understand why you would compare 6 months of 2018 with 7 months of 2017?

Anyway, we should reach 2 million in 2018.

ffbj

I was watching an old Babylon 5 season 1, where Lenier rebuilds the last production ice motorcycle, from 2035.
I thought that was a good prediction considering the show was made in 1993, and electric motorcycles weren’t even in production.

energymatters

I remember that episode. Lenier replaced the ICE with a “mimbari”electric powersource….

Daniel Fearns

The UK Government has introduced a price estimate of 4 pence per mile for driving an EV versus 14 pence per mile for driving diesel and petrol vehicles.

OtteryLexa

Those numbers look low to me. I think they are projecting the future based on fitting a linear curve (based on an eyeball estimate)

antrik

Actually, they seem to be assuming more or less exponential growth (but slower in the second half of the next decade) up till 2032 or so, and linear after that.

According to the teaser text, it seems they are basing this on an assumption that apartment dwellers in cities will have trouble with charging. That doesn’t make sense to me: installing chargers in all public parking spaces is not such a big deal really…

max

Just hang on… “By 2030 Bloomberg sees $70 per kWh possible”… Oh really? Tesla will be at $100 / kWh in 2020. The cost reduction trend has be greater than 15% per year in the past 2 or 3 years. So all of a sudden (with more and more money coming into mass production and R&D) we are going to drop from 15% per year to 15% per five years? Bloomberg are amateurs, consistently underestimating the reality of what’s happening in the actual industry.

G2

I think the entire financial/industrial/political world is too fearful of saying just what the actual timeframe for EV/ICE parity is and what that means to about $8 Trillion ($5T fuels + $3T LICE industry) in annual revenue/income. It is figuratively the ‘Emperor-has-no-clothes’ moment and they can’t fathom the economic and social implications.

Mr. M

it has been 8% per year…

Battery pack has, according to Bloomberg, dropped from $800/kWh to $208/kWh from 2011 to 2017 or 20,1% on average per year. 23,8% drop between 2016 and 2017.

antrik

I think their pessimism is based on the fact that there are physical limits to how much battery prices can fall with existing chemistries — most notably, the price of raw materials.

However, as the market grows, so do research and development spendings; and there seem to be some quite promising venues in battery research — so I believe it’s actually reasonable to assume that we will see enough breakthroughs enabling major price drops to continue in the foreseeable future…

101101

BNEF is utter blsht seriously. Its figures are based around presuming petrol can continue to make is phony profitability claims and continue its massive society destroying theft. Its projections also assume we don’t meet Paris targets.

But if your’re a Tesla investor supporter its projections show Tesla a decade ahead of what BNEF is trying to deceive the public about.

If you don’t want BS look at the projections of Tony Seba- 100% new car electric between 2025 and 2030 globally. Tony has been a lot more accurate than the BNEF fraud. Wish we had some means of prosecuting entites that could be shown to take money for knowingly and intentionally misleading the public as at the least it sows the seeds of violence. We have false advertising but this goes further.

G2

Concur, but the implications of the change are daunting.

Cypress

Tony is overly optimistic. But BNEF seems too conservative. The reality is probably somewhere between.

Andy

2% to 100% in seven years?

Optimistic is one word for that.

Bloomberg figures look a little on the low side, but it’s worth remembering that the are predicting worldwide car sales rather than just the US or Europe. Prices are going to have to come down significantly to become price competitive in poorer countries (like Africa and SE Asia) and that’s probably going to reduce worldwide adoption rate.

By 2025 in Europe, North America and other developed countries plug ins will probably make up a good percentage of the market, but realistically probably not much more than or even over half (consider battery production for one, alongside vehicle development times).

antrik

The actual extrapolation is 2% to near 100% in 12 years, i.e. by 2030. 2025 is just wrong.

It should be noted though that price competitiveness is not really dependant on location. In the initial stages, it depends mostly on government incentives, which are a function of political will, not wealth. Once EVs become competitive on their own, this becomes irrelevant.

Of course there is an indirect effect, since in less wealthy regions, people are more likely to buy budget cars, i.e. a segment where EVs will become competitive only somewhat later. However, the income window in which a big part of the population in a region can afford buying new cars at all, but only budget offerings, is actually quite narrow… And what’s more, the global EV transition should happen much faster than any major region will newly gain this level of economic development. (The one region I’m aware of that is seeing major increases in private car ownership right now is China — but they are in fact the fastest growing EV market…)

antrik

Tony Seba is simply assuming exponential growth will continue at the current pace. While it’s possible that this will happen, it’s by no means guaranteed. It’s based on the premise that technological breakthroughs keep happening without hitting any major snag. BNEF is simply more conservative in their assumptions.

Note what BNEF actually stands for: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. In case you aren’t aware, Bloomberg (the person) is one of the biggest supporters of renewable energy.

Like all market analysts, they prefer being conservative in their forecasts — but accusing them of anti-EV propaganda is frankly quite ridiculous.

(Also, I’m pretty sure Tony Seba never suggested 2025. The extrapolation actually works out to 2030 or thereabouts.)

menorman

> All that should enable cost-parity on an unsubsidized basis between BEV and ICE cars to start in 2024.

Tesla is already there, as is BMW with some of their PHEVs.

yo

Not exactly…
When Tesla, Nissan or anyone can make and sell a 150 + mile range BEV car profitably for 20K un subsidized they are there…

You do understand what cost parity means? Getting the BEV down to $20k in purchase prize would lead to it being basically free when compared to the costs of the ICE and it’s fuel.

The TCO of the Model 3 is already lower than for a Corolla long before the $35k version is here.

Cost parity is reached already, purchase price parity on the other hand has a long way to go. (not that it needs that, it only needs to get closer in price so that it’s obvious for even the average or below average idiot that it’s cheaper in total). Just like for the European diesel boom where diesel cars did cost more but gained it on fuel cost.

antrik

Tesla is pretty close to achieving purchase price parity in the premium sedan segment; but budget segments still have a ways to go. That’s why trying to put a specific date on “parity” actually doesn’t make much sense…

rey

It all comes down to TCO or total cost of ownership and in the near future EVs will be cheaper than ICE or Fossil cars. some 3rd world economies where you have unlimited sunshine and have to import oil the BEVs is a no brainer and they might start with cheap basic BEVs and electric bikes and Scooters.

antrik

Indeed, electric two- and three-wheelers already seem to be doing very well in India.

Nick

“Chinese share in plug-in car sales to be 50% in 2025 but then will decrease below 40% in 2030”.

I’m fascinated by the logic for the later decline in market share, it looks dubious, like someone was playing with the data to get the numbers they wanted.

That is Chinas percentage of the global EV sales, not their domestic percentage. So it is logical that China, who now is pushing ahead, will not keep that market share of global sales forever as the rest of the world catches up.

China has about 50% of the global EV market share today and might end the year with a few percentage points more since their last months of the year are always extremely strong.

I doubt that they manage to keep 50% share until 2025 though, that would mean that they would keep on growing with the same percentage as the rest of the world even though their volumes and EV share of the domestic market gets so much higher.

antrik

Well, currently they are growing *faster* than most other markets; and they do not seem willing to slow down any time soon… So until they start hitting saturation (which should happen only at some point after 2025), or others *seriously* step up their efforts, China is likely to be even more dominant by 2025.

Brandon

Our household isn’t rich or even middle class, we have just looked at the financial and environmental argument for electrics. So we all bought a pre-owned plugin. We have 2 Nissan Leafs (Leaves) and 1 Prius Plugin Hybrid. Where we live charging is actually sparse, but we manage anyway, and the perks outweigh the cons. We also have severe winters and summers and the area is actually very rural an hour in every direction, yet we still manage. Electrification will have many growing pains, but it’s important to pioneer an industry.