Forecast Predicts China Will Account For 57% Of Electric Car Sales By 2035

JUL 21 2018 BY VANJA KLJAIC 20

The Chinese market is expected to consume 6.42 million electric vehicles yearly by 2035

A recently published report by Japan’s Fuji Keizai Group, reveals that China is predicted to account for 57% of the world’s electric vehicle sales by 2035. The market research company prophecises that global EV sales are set to reach around 11.25 million by 2035 – almost 15 times more than 2017 yearly sales that accounted for 760,000 vehicles. The Chinese market is expected to account for approximately 6.42 millions of the whole vehicle total – or the aforementioned 57% of the global sales volume.

Sales of 2.17 million electric cars, or 19.3% of the global amount, are expected to happen in Europe. North America is expected to follow with 1.36 million vehicles – or 12% of the global sales volume. Japan comes in fourth place, with a prediction of 450,000 units or 4% of the global sales volume happening in the land of the rising sun.

Plug-in hybrid wise, Fuji Keizai forecasts that global sales will reach 12.43 million cars by 2035 – a huge improvement over the 400,000 sold last year. China will once again be the leading market, accounting for 37.4% of the global volume with 4.6 million cars sold. Europe once again follows as a close second with 30.7% share of the global sales volume for plug-in hybrids, with 3.81 million units sold. North America – with 2.47 million  – and Japan at about 900,000 cars sold (7.2% of the global sales volume) follow in the third and fourth place, respectively.

The market research company predicts that hybrid vehicles are slated to grow to a level that is double that of 2017 – Fuji Keizai expects the sales of hybrids to reach 4.2 million vehicles sold by 2035 globally.  But, unlike the fully electric and plug-in hybrid sales charts, the Japanese home market will dominate both the number sold and the global volume percentage for hybrid sales. They predict that, in Japan, sales of 1.31 million cars (31.1% of the global volume) will be made by 2035. Japan is followed by North America with 1.03 million hybrids (24.5%) and Europe at just 580,000 hybrid vehicles (13.8% of the global volume) sold.

As far as hybrids go, China is predicted to claim the fourth spot in terms of sales, with the world’s most populous country accounting for 510,000 vehicles or 12% o the global hybrid sales volume.

Source: Green Car Report

Categories: China, General

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20 Comments on "Forecast Predicts China Will Account For 57% Of Electric Car Sales By 2035"

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Hmm… China will get close to a million this year and are increasing by ~100% per year at the moment. If if the pace slows down extremely two doublations will be done by 2022. If it slows down even more they will maybe not reach 6 millions until 2025, but that is pretty pessimistic.

Vanja Kljaic wrote the article stating peak oil will occur in 2036. I still believe we will reach peak oil in 2025, I also disagree with global sales of 11.25 million by 2035. The source is written in Japanese and I can’t read Japanese but she also wrote that global sales were 750,000 EV’s in 2017. InsideEVs 2017 total global sales count was over 1.2 million. I predict that EV sales of cars buses and trucks will be 30% of global sales by 2025.

The Science Museum of Virginia has a display that shows how much power the world needs it currently at 20 Terawatts but by 2040 it will be at 29 terrawatts and by 2050 it will be 40 something terrawatts or less.

The chart showed that by 2035 we will run out of natural gas and by 2050 we will run out of oil and by 2085 we will run out of coal.

Nuclear fuel will last into 2070’s or even into the next century but once we have burned though the oil and natural gas it will get ugly fast.

The thing did show however that there is a 100 terawatts of untapped wind power and 24,000 terawatts of untapped sun power.

But this chart is something to fear at how fossil fuels still run the show.

With the status quo of oil and gas use along with farming, ranching, deforestation, permafrost melt things could get ugly fast…
And lets not forget the number one problem with global warming and that is the human population…

Nuclear fuel will last longer than the sun, so if there is something to count on it is that nuclear will survive us all. Just the “waste” in form of already used fuel will last us hundreds of years if not thousands…

What kind of nuclear fuel are you thinking of? AFAIK known Uranium reserves are actually quite limited.

Thorium, check out http://flibe-energy.com only China is working on Lithium Flouride Thorium Reactors.

If that is just total electricity, that chart is SOOOO off.

Because the energy used for transportation, is about equal to the energy used for electricity.
IOW, as we move from oil-based transportation to electricity, we are going to DOUBLE the electricity.

As to wind/sun, it is a horrible mistake to depend on indeterminate energy even combined with small storage.
We need at least 2/3 of the electricity to be stable and on-call. That leaves us with hydro, geo-thermal, and nuclear.

And what is interesting is that the best nations with the cleanest electricity depend on hydro, geo-thermal, and nuclear. In fact, none of them have any real amount of wind/solar.

OTOH, those that are moving to wind/solar are finding that they can not make it work.

I haven’t seen the specific chart; but usually, these statistics refer to *primary* energy usage. Since EVs are much more efficient, transitioning all transport to EVs will not result in doubling electricity usage.

As for the anti-solar/wind FUD, your claims are completely made up.

the 760,000 claim is for BEVs only; so not far off.

Forecast Predicts China Will Account For 57% Of Earth Sales By 2035

Fix it for you

Yes, that sounds better although the prediction seems incorrect.

And how much of the Moon are they going to sell?

I think this must be the most useless “forecast” I’ve seen yet. I’m too lazy to check the exact figures: but it sounds very much like they didn’t do any kind of analysis at all; rather just made a linear extrapolation from current trends… Congratulations: every high schooler without prior knowledge should be able to do that.

I definitely lack any prior knowledge therefore am able to predict 62.37% by 2025.

I worked in the computer (and computer journalism) fields for a long time, so trust me when I say that yes, this prediction isn’t worth the bits it’s printed on, but it’s still not nearly as bad as many I’ve seen.

In 2035 >95% of Global vehicle sales will be fully electric.

“The market research company prophesizes that global EV sales are set to reach around 11.25 million by 2035”
Does the author thinks that the world market will drop from the current ~100million to less than 12million in 2035?

That will have some dire economic consequences!

It is highly speculative to “predict” future sales of EVs vs PHEVs vs ICE vehicles. Extreme claims are almost certainly wrong. 11 million EVs (maybe 10% of the total 2035 market?) certainly could be low, but a 95% EV market share is certainly way too high.

In five years when the legacy vehicle makers have substantially gotten their EV programs going we will have a better idea of the trend.

The question for 2035 is not whether sales of EVs will be 10% or 95% but where they will be between, say, 10% and 30%.
I do think that the remaining vehicles that are not EVs will be mainly hybrid drive because substantial fuel savings can be achieved at quite low cost this way. What share of those will be PHEVs seems less clear to me.

Expecting such a low EV share in 2035 makes no sense. Growth has been exponential ever since modern EVs arrived early this decade. At current rates, EVs should take over pretty much all of the market before 2030. There are no signs of slowing down, nor reasons to expect a slowdown. Everyone agrees that mass production of BEVs will be cheaper in the long run; the only major hurdle being battery costs. With ongoing cost reductions, I’m pretty confident BEVs will be competitive in purchase price (not to mention TCO) even with entry-level combustion cars no later than 2025. Just like it’s already the case today, EV sales growth will be limited more by the makers’ ability to ramp up production than by demand.

I agree strongly with the prediction of 95% BEVs sold in the year 2035. How many vinyl records are still sold? Betamax or VHS video tapes? Film cameras? Tube type TVs? Standard Line phones? When people recognize a superior product, the market changes almost 100%. My prediction for US sales based on insideEVs data.
https://insideevsforum.com/community/index.php?attachments/bevsales-png.1503/