Cumulative Tesla Model 3 Production Estimate Exceeds 150,000

Tesla Model 3

DEC 31 2018 BY MARK KANE 49

Tesla closes the year 2018 with roughly 150,000 Model 3 produced cumulatively.

According to Bloomberg’s Tesla Model 3 Tracker, cumulative production of the Tesla Model 3 stands now (as of December 31, 2018) at 154,791.

The number consists of officially announced production results in previous quarters and estimated production rates in the current quarter, which translates into the uncertainty of at least a few thousand.

The average weekly production output based on the available unofficial data is now 4,611 per week, but again, we don’t know if that’s exactly accurate either. We didn’t see a production pace above 5,000 in the Tesla Model 3 Tracker for prolonged times, which makes us wonder why, if there was a goal to reach 7,000 by the end of November?

Compared to 193,556 registered VIN numbers (according to Model 3 VINs), around 38,765 VIN numbers (8 weeks of 5,000/week worth of production) are ready for use.

Production and deliveries of Model 3 in previous quarters thus far:

  • 2017’Q3 – 260 produced, and 222 delivered
  • 2017’Q4 – 2,425 produced and 1,542 delivered
  • 2018’Q1 – 9,766 produced and 8,182 delivered
  • 2018’Q2 – 28,578 produced and 18,449 delivered
  • 2018’Q3 – 53,239 produced and 56,065 delivered
  • 2018’Q4 – already 60,523 produced (estimated)

Source: Tesla Model 3 TrackerModel 3 VINs

Categories: Tesla

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49 Comments on "Cumulative Tesla Model 3 Production Estimate Exceeds 150,000"

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It is only a few hours and we will all know.

Exactly. My hunch is the US demand probably is around 4,000 per week, and the 7,000 per week is for shipping internationally (I think they claim about 3,000 per week?) so this would still leave around 4,000 per week for the US. Until they release a cheaper model here in the US I don’t think we will see many more than that.

oh, I suspect that American demand is MUCH MUCH higher than 4000 / week.
But, I am guessing that Tesla will SUPPLY only around 4000 / week, until another factory is opened.

An economy site stated they have 3000 unsold cars, that they aperently did not manage to sell.
That don’t happen to be just cars heading for Europe?

That is less than three days production. More likely a small mismatch between production and deliveries.

John Doe — How many days on average do you think it takes to deliver a brand new car after it rolls off an assembly line? What number of unsold inventory do you think Tesla should have at the end of each quarter? Do you think it is zero? Please name a specific number.

Since they build around 1,000 a day, if Tesla had 1000 cars that would be the equivalent of delivering all of their cars to customers within roughly 24 hours (1 business day) after production.

2K would be delivering all cars within 48 hours (2 business days).

3K is the equivalent of delivering all their cars within 60 hours (3 business days).

Every quarter WILL have unsold inventory for EVERY car maker. If you are gullible enough to believe any car maker building upwards of 4-5K cars a week could sell them all before the end of the week, that’s your mistake.

Not at $50,000 and up, it will maybe be a bit higher than supplied, but my guess is next year they will need less expensive models to sell more units than they did second half of 2018, which is probably why the cheaper Model 3 cars will come then. They can have year over year increases, but average price will drop some.

2 days ago it was at 146K, then yesterday it was at 156K.. Now its 154K!! Wonder what it will say tomorrow..

They were at 147k then suddenly “poof”, they were at 154k!

Funny how their number only makes these sudden changes near the end of the quarter….

This goes to the reliability of the Bloomberg tracker. They have a limited, incidental data set, such as VIN registrations and state Department of Motor Vehicle records. These things do not see regular patterns. There may be a government furlough, or VIN issuance departments may be on holiday. I expect that the tracker to be least reliable in late December. Knowing that all seven blocks of the battery production line at Gigafactory 1 are not bottlenecking production is meaningful. Knowing that GA 4 assembly patterns have been applied to GA 3 is also meaningful. Did a supplier struggle to get enough parts on time? Maybe. The fact that they recently patented a technique to automate QA for panel assembly strongly suggests that they are encountering a need to improve process in that area. I don’t think Tesla will invent a solution in search of a problem.

Like GM Suddenly Closing Plants: It’s All A Big Mystery!

If Tesla was only at 147k Model 3s, they would deliver less than 20k units in December (given the number already sold in US and Canada).
At 154,7k, then there are about 31k unsold based on end of November sales. Depending on the production to delivery times, that means they may be able to get to close to 25k units delivered in December. That would make a lot more sense.

Considering that the Model 3 I purchased at the beginning of December had a VIN in the 149k range, this 154k is more than believable.

While I agree with the sentiment it’s worth knowing they aren’t all sequentially vinned, as it depends on the configuration where the vin falls. They could go back and make more in the 140k range for example if those were rwd models and yours was awd. But all said and done I think they will be around 20k in December for delivery. Hopefully I’m off and it’s actually 25+k!

Of course, many of us notice that trolls come out here in-mass near the end of that same quarter. Funny how that is.

If this comment is based on Bloomberg’s tracker, they don’t have real numbers go by so they do their best effort estimation based on things like registered VIN numbers and customer surveys etc iirc.

So they would be a bit inaccurate as well as delayed by a couple weeks or so pretty much every time you check. But it’s better than nothing, still provides a general idea.

For cars produced for foreign markets, Tesla probably doesn’t need to obtain U.S. VIN numbers, since the cars will be sold in foreign countries. Right?

That, if true, “Could” account for quite a few thousand units error, particularly next year, if they are building for Europe in January; but do you think Canadian Product gets their VIN’s from elsewhere?

VINs are global. They do not all have the same format but they all start with a manufacturer index to make sure they are globally unique. VINs are registered and applied at the place of manufacturing.

which is good. it makes it easier to locate stolen cars that are being moved between nations.

Wrong, all cars manufactured in USA require USA VIN numbers. Same goes for other countries. However Tesla uses one of the digits to indicate European versions and only a few have been made for demonstration and show in Europe.

Wrong again.
Multiple standards, with the first couple of digits being shared.
Look at the components as well that lays out the digit map.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vehicle_identification_number#World_manufacturer_identifier

I used to be obsessed with Bloomberg’s Model 3 tracker but not so much anymore. I liked it better when the weekly spikes were notated. Note that they are showing 60,523 for the quarter and each day has consistently shown the weekly average under 4,600. Statistically speaking it is fine, I just think their method of retrieving VINs is starting to weaken. So far they may show that the number produced for the quarter is pretty close to 60,523 though I think the fleet vehicles may affect the number delivered which is what the IEV number will reveal.

i wonder when RWD will get a comeback…

We reach peak of the S curve or it’s just a delay until SR Model 3 comes out

It’s very possible Tesla are already at 300,000 annual run rate just for mod3 alone.

I would be surprised if they are NOT close to that.

Prediction: When Tesla releases the actual numbers Bloomberg will have no explanation as to why they grossly underestimated Model 3 production.

Bloomberg adjusts their count just before the end of each quarter. The adjusted number is ALWAYS right on target. The adjustments were huge the past two quarter (7-10k). Is there any way this is remotely possible without getting late quarter info from an inside source?

This is the inverse of what happened when people got over exuberant about vin tracking in the Model S days that lead to one of the biggest sell offs. People were counting vins and made poor assumptions that Tesla was going to produce thousands more units than they actually reported.

How short sighted we have become that we are counting vins all over again and expecting some kind of different result. VIN counting hasn’t worked in a very, very long time. I don’t know why people continue trying to use it.

Although I agree with your assessment, it is about the only official piece of data we have to work with.

Elon was dropping all kinds of hints about strong volume as the end of Q3 approached. We haven’t seen that as the quarter and year come to a close which makes me wonder if it has been a bit softer than anticipated. Indeed, the move into Europe, etc. Seems sooner than anticipated too.

Honestly, if I was holding out for the cheaper Model 3, I think I likely would have already pulled the trigger on the MR and taken the full rebatr. Of course, I recognize some folks looking for the 35k version are already stretching to hit that number

I don’t think anyone in Europe would agree that deliveries are happening “sooner”.

Also, the restrictions on Elon’s tweets went into effect last week. I expect to see less “hints”.

Demand in US tends to be down in Q1, this is exactly when I expected them to ship to Europe (starting Jan 1). I think $35k model ships Q3 to make sure their year over year numbers increase.

Based on an earlier report of 7000 per week in November and the video showing 48seconds per vehicle 1.25 per min assembled M3 that plant is finally equal to what GM and Toyota was building and with flexible line the model Y could be built out of another tent, would be really cool.

They did not build 7000 cars in a week and the video does not show 48 seconds per vehicle.

The 48 second video is speeded up. Also, I hope they have more than one car on the line at a time.

Just some minor discrepencies in your numbers: the total US sales for 2017 is 199826 in your comparison table for 2018, but it is 199818 in the older tables. There are similar or smaller differences in most of the monthly numbers.

Sadly, I called the Cleveland Tesla and they still have Model 3 stock on December 31. Quite sad that they couldn’t sell out.

The day is not over

They get more cars every day. It is like trying to stop the wind.

If this were any other car company, they would sell all the remaining stock to themselves, take the $7500 tax credit, and sell the new stock as used, for $7500 less than list price. This is what is done in the rest of the industry.

Not possible. The terms of the tax credit are only valid if the purchaser claiming the credit owns the car for one full year after purchase.

You are correct, they can’t just do a straw transaction where they title the vehicle and keep offering it for sale. They have to actually put the car “into service”.

The one tax year is definitely the safest way to prove to the IRS that your intention was to put the car “into service”. If the car isn’t up for sale on the day you file your taxes, it is hard for the IRS to show that you are violating the “not for resale” part of the rule. But technically it isn’t a hard and fast one full year rule where you cannot sell your car until 365 days have expired. As long as you put it into service in good faith, and not as a straw transaction, you can resell in less than a year.

Keep in mind that the IRS doesn’t have to PROVE you violate the rules before they deny your tax credit. Proof only comes into play if/when it goes to court (like if they charge you with tax fraud). Otherwise they deny your credit, you have the burden to show you didn’t violate the rules when you file an appeal.

Ross — If you have any actual evidence of that happening anywhere without the dealership putting the car into service (such as a service department loaner), please post it. They have to actually put the car into service in order to take the tax credit, and not just put it right back up for sale without putting it into service.

https://www.irs.gov/businesses/irc-30d-plug-in-electric-drive-motor-vehicle-credit-sales-definition-clarification

https://www.irs.gov/businesses/irc-30d-new-qualified-plug-in-electric-drive-motor-vehicle-credit

It seems Tesla is very likely to sell n deliver over 300k model 3s for the USA in 2019. That I would think place the model 3 in top three of sales for cars(non truck or suv) for the year.

I’ve been telling folks for months here in CA to prepare themselves for seeing just as many model 3s soon here as we did prii a decade ago.

We don’t know how accurate this is, but at least we know that the production of Model-3 has increased and stands at around 4,500 / week which puts the total production including Model-S/X at 6,500 / week which is closer to their big target of 10,000 vehicles / week.
Anyway, Tesla has made great strides in 2018 and will be remembered as the year that electric vehicles captured nearly 2/3 the plugin market share.

Not bad.

when is the standard tesla 3 star production and delivers to Vancouver?