Nissan LEAF Sales Dip to 2012 Lows With 370 Units Sold

MAY 2 2012 BY STATIK 15

Nissan LEAF sales hit a fresh 2012 low with just 370 deliveries in the month of April. That number represents a fall of about 200 units over March (579) and far from a high of over 1,700 mid last year. Unfortunately for Nissan, the media stateside has been more than a little unkind of late, saying that this year’s results show a weakness in demand for the car. A fact that simply is not accurate.

Prior this sales announcement Ghosn has asked the media to have a little perspective on the matter, without elaborating so much as to the why:

“Don’t take one or two months’ sales results in one or two markets,”to make conclusions on this important segment of the market”, while also adding that Nissan does still expect to sell over 20,000 vehicles in the US by the end of the year.

So, with only 2,100 sold through the first 4 months, is Ghosn’s expectation to sell at least that amount for each of the next 8 months (on average)to hit Nissan’s year end sales target realistic? It is…and here is why. Nissan currently allocates production to the US, it is not a function of demand, ie) they can only sell what they ship, when they decide to ship more, they will sell more.

The issues begin with the Nissan LEAF not being a US-specific car. It is a world car, and is being offered in 19 countries.   All of which are supplied by one very undersized battery planet, namely the AESC plant out of Zama, Japan.  However, this would not explain why Nissan was averaging about 1,000 units sold per month in the US right up to about October of last year, and why the sales have been cut in half since then.

Enter Renault, the ‘other half’ of the Nissan equation. Renault started production of the Kangoo ZE (all electric utility van) late last year, then added the Fluence ZE earlier this year, and then the Twizy just this month. And where are all these battery packs coming from to supply these new offerings?  The same AESC factory out of Zama. Demand for packs has become so great for Nissan-Renault have actually subcontracted LG Chem to produce some of the battery packs for the Fluence ZE in Europe.

The takeaway is that currently Nissan-Renault can only produce about 5,000 (LEAF sized) packs per month out of Zama, and that the partnership’s production is divided amongst 4 cars (with a 5th, the Zoe, coming online soon), in over separate markets.  Basically, they are supplying everyone and satisfying no one.

The good news for Nissan, and future sales in the US, is that the Sunderland facility in the UK, and the Smyrna factory in the US, while not producing LEAFs, have now both started production of lithium cells, and the stress on battery production in the LEAF supply chain is about to be relieved.

 

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15 Comments on "Nissan LEAF Sales Dip to 2012 Lows With 370 Units Sold"

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GeorgeS
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GeorgeS

Hi Jay,
News travels fast.

Please explain: You say that all Japan production right now is sent to the US. If that’s true then the poor sales figure this month can’t be because of inadequate supply (or maybe I’m wrong).

Surely Nissan shipped more than 370 Leafs to the US this month. I guess one would have to look at dealer inventories and units shipped (last month?) to get a clearer picture.

I’m just not convinced the sales numbers are because of limited supply. Please convince me since I want the Leaf to succeed.

Thx,
GSB

GeorgeS
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GeorgeS

Thx for the response. I guess the statement in the article “Nissan currently allocates production to the US,” is what threw me off.

I am getting the impression though that there are lots of places other than the US that like the Leaf. (Norway). of course the subsidies help. Hopefully with all the countries taken into account Nissan will be able to sell many more in the future.

Get crankin’ on them batteries Nissan!!

William NY
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William NY

Just wanted to say welcome back to the internet Statik, missed reading you!

Lyle Dennis
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Me too =)

GeorgeS
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GeorgeS

PS Jay,
I missed kdawg’s staff link.
I am super impressed and will definitely be checking in again.
I really like what Ford is doing in the Hybrid/ electric area.
The Focus seems to be pretty quality with it’s thermal management system like the Volt.

backstroke
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backstroke

Both of these Lithium-ion battery plants aren’t due to come online for a number of months, What makes you so confident that they are up and running early?

NZDavid
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NZDavid

Hey Statik, great to see you and Lyle teaming up on a site!

Meanwhile, downunder we just wait for any of these great cars to make it here.

Cheers David

backstroke
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backstroke

Thanks for quick reply. Found that same nissannews.com url just a few minutes ago. Interesting…

Schmeltz
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Schmeltz

Hi Statik! Long time no “see” old friend. Great to find both you and Lyle again posting EV stuff. I guess I have another place to visit now on a daily basis! 🙂

You gave a good explanation on the Leaf sales…or lack thereof. I guess Nissan is getting their ducks in a row which is good, although I was a little suprised the factory in Japan doesn’t expand to meet the demand. You would think they would want the business for themselves?

Again, good to see you again.

Dave R
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Dave R

Any idea how Nissan will manage the logistics of battery and glider production with the 2 being half-way around the world from each other? RORO ships are the current transport method of choice for getting cars around the world – but if those cars don’t have batteries I would think that would make RORO difficult. And shipping heavy batteries to Japan for assembly only to ship them back again doesn’t make much sense, either.

Maybe Smyrma and Sunderland will ship all their batteries to Europe for vehicles there (since batteries would otherwise be shipped there from Zama), freeing up Zama to produce batteries for the LEAF until Smyrma and Sunderland start producing LEAFs of their own late this year?

statik
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statik

Battery production in Japan to the world is pretty much bad news all aroung. You have the currency play (which has eased somewhat of late), then the difficulty on the production capacity itself, and then the cost/difficulty to ship of batteries (this is the most consistant of all problems).

Sunderland will/is now beginning to ease the problem in the UK. As will be the secondary LG Chem contract for the Fluence ZE very shortly (which will be the bigger of the 3 models for Renaul…until the Zoe is engaged).