In October, the overall wholesale vehicle shipments (local retail sales and exports) of Tesla Made-in-China (MIC) cars showed another warning sign.

According to the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA)'s initial data, the overall volume of Tesla MIC Model 3/Model Y cars last month amounted to 72,115 units, which is barely 0.6 percent more than a year ago.

This result is also lower than in October (74,073), which was down by almost 11 percent year-over-year, and lower than in August (84,159). On top of that, we must remember that most of the Chinese manufacturers are expanding their EV sales, which means a reduction of Tesla's market share.

* CPCA reports wholesale shipments, not registrations/customer deliveries.

The lack of growth in the past months is probably related to the introduction of the significantly upgraded Model 3 (code name Highland) and the slightly updated Tesla Model Y in China, which required changes at the Giga Shanghai factory.

However, deliveries of the refreshed Model Y started in China on October 15, and deliveries of the upgraded Model 3 started on October 26. It was potentially too late to boost October, but in November there will be no excuse, especially since Tesla officially admitted that the Giga Shanghai plant is ready to produce more than 950,000 EVs a year (roughly 80,000 a month).

Tesla MIC BEV wholesale vehicle shipments last month (YOY change):

  • Model 3/Model Y: 72,115 (up 0.6%)

So far this year, the total wholesale sales exceeded 770,000 units, which is 39 percent more than a year ago.

Tesla MIC BEV wholesale vehicle shipments year-to-date (YOY change):

  • Model 3/Model Y: 771,171 (up 39%)

As of today, the initial CPCA data does not include numbers for retail sales and exports or individual results for the two models.

An interesting thing is that the entry-level Tesla Model 3 RWD estimated delivery time (new orders) in China is now 2-6 weeks, compared to 6-9 weeks previously. The Long Range AWD still requires a wait of 3-9 weeks.

This indicates that the relationship between demand and production of the Model 3 RWD changed and the company expects that it will have more cars available.

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