If you follow Tesla and financial markets, you may have seen Ark Invest's latest stock forecast. While many people across the globe, including those involved in government organizations, are pushing back against Tesla's Full Self-Driving Capability, Ark is increasingly optimistic about it. In fact, the investment firm includes Tesla's prospective robotaxi business in its latest future valuation.
Ark predicts that Tesla stock could be valued at a whopping $4,600 by 2026. The firm's prior report set the estimated share price at $3,000 by 2025. As analysts put together their price targets, they look at a number of critical factors. We've noticed that while some analysts include Tesla's Full Self-Driving Capability and potential robotaxi business in their estimates, many do not.
This is likely due to the fact that the technology still isn't feature-complete despite CEO Elon Musk saying for years that it will be ready "by the end of this year." Regardless of Musk's overly optimistic social media posts, there are still just so many unknowns surrounding the progress of FSD Beta and the potential for Tesla to actually start a robotaxi business.
Our friends at Teslarati shared some of Ark's Tesla stock insights in a recent article. The investment firm notes:
“Tesla’s prospective robotaxi business line is a key driver, contributing 60% of expected value and more than half of expected EBITDA in 2026. Across our simulation set, we expect electric vehicles to constitute 57% of the company’s revenue in 2026, albeit at substantially lower margins than robotaxi revenue.”
As Ark compares its Tesla bull case and bear case, it says Tesla could make some $486 billion in yearly revenue by 2026 on its robotaxi business alone if all the right cards fall into place. On the bearish side, Ark says Tesla would only be generating $51 million per year from the self-driving fleet during the same timeframe. To put things into perspective, Teslarati adds that Tesla made about $54 billion in revenue in 2021.
This all comes as Ark is becoming more certain Tesla will be able to solve full self-driving technology. Perhaps Musk will be wrong again, and FSD won't be ready for a full-scale launch by the end of 2022. However, 2026 is still quite far away. Obviously, a whole lot will happen between now and 2026, and while there are many variables we're already aware of, there will likely be many more along the way.
Tesla could continue improving its FSD system between now and 2026 with few obstacles, and it could certainly achieve feature-complete status, but will that be enough to safely operate fleets of robotaxis? On the flip side, Tesla's FSD technology could be shut down by regulators, or, at the very least, progress could be hindered by numerous related roadblocks.
What's your Tesla share price target? What do you think shares will be worth in 2026? Is Ark's inclusion of the Tesla's robotaxi model acceptable in your opinion? Let's get a conversation started in the comment section below.