Tesla has taken the automotive industry by storm and it has forced important changes that OEMs probably would not have made on their own. But it looks like the changes they’ve made and will keep making in the near future are not enough to maintain their sales lead over Tesla and now analysts are predicting the likes of GM and Ford will have a lower market share within the next few years.

The prediction comes from known Morgan Stanley analyst, Adam Jonas, who expects Tesla’s US market share to grow to 18 percent, compared to GM’s 12 percent and Ford’s 10 percent by the year 2030. Today, GM’s share is 14 percent, Ford has 12.5 percent and Tesla 3.5 percent, but Tesla’s share is continuing to grow, even in spite of the shrinking market, the pandemic and the ongoing chip shortage.


Jonas also predicts that Tesla’s US market share will hit 10 percent by 2026 or 2027. GM’s share is expected to drop to 14 percent or less by then, before it will drop to 12 percent in 2030. Ford’s share is expected to dip even lower by 2030, to just over 10 percent.

However, even though Tesla’s market share won’t surpass that of Ford or GM by 2027, Jonas predicts that the EV manufacturer’s revenue will be larger than their combined earnings and that this trend should become obvious in the next two years.

Tesla recently surpassed BMW for total sales volume in the US, selling 16,000 more vehicles (regardless of power source) than the Bavarians (352,471 sales versus 336,644 sales). It also sold more vehicles than Lexus (304,476 cars sold in the US) and Mercedes-Benz (276,102 sales).

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