According to DriveElectric's forecast, there are strong reasons to expect a 160% year-over-year increase from 37,850 to almost 100,000.

DriveElectric, a British electric vehicle leasing company, released a forecast for 2020, which hints at even greater BEV sales in the UK than in 2019.

While in 2019 the total number of new all-electric car registrations was 37,850 (up 144% year-over-year), this year it might be almost 100,000 - at least 98,500 according to DriveElectric calculations.

Here are the reasons behind the expected 160% improvement in sales ahead:

"DriveElectric uses its own model built from its intelligence of the UK market to forecast EV registrations. Reasons for this substantial increase in EV numbers are:

  • Changes to Benefit in Kind (BIK) company car tax: there will be zero company car tax on pure electric cars from April 2020 for a period of 12 months. Switching to an EV from a plug-in hybrid could result in savings for the employee and the company in BIK, fuel and National Insurance in just one year of £4,578.1
  • A return to company cars rather than employees taking car allowances: DriveElectric already has evidence to show that this change is happening.
  • Increased availability of electric cars in 2020 compared to 2019, in part due to the new EU fleet-wide average emissions targets - selling larger numbers of EVs can help car manufacturers avoid substantial fines.2
  • Existing manufacturers such as Tesla will continue with a large market share and a high number of deliveries (approximately 25,000 units).
  • A number of manufacturers are entering the market with new battery electric vehicles, for example PSA, with a predicted volume of 12,000 units. Volkswagen will have a big push with EVs; although the new ID won’t be ready to roll out of UK showrooms until later in 2020, other all-electric Volkswagen models will help with the firm’s numbers.
  • There is growing environmental awareness, about climate change and also about challenges with local air quality; EVs help to provide a solution in both areas.
  • Increasing numbers of initiatives such as Clean Air Zones are resulting in organisations considering renewing their fleets with electric rather than petrol or diesel vehicles."

An additional factor might be the persuasion of skeptics to EVs through trials:

"DriveElectric has witnessed in its trials of EVs with organisations around the UK: drivers, many of whom may initially have been sceptical about a move to EVs, vastly prefer the driving experience of electric cars and vans to that of their petrol or diesel engine equivalents after experiencing EVs."