Could it reach an average of 10,000 per week in 6-9 months?
Tesla soon will significantly increase the production of the Model 3 according to the latest news - first the upcoming increase was hinted by internal email, written by Jérôme M. Guillen, Tesla’s President of Automotive to employees.
Now, the precision stamping service provider China FineBlanking Technology (CFTC) - one of Tesla's suppliers from China, will reportedly double its monthly shipments for components of relays used in the Tesla Model 3 from 20,000 to 40,000 as early as August 2019.
Assuming that Tesla is able to produce on average around 5,500 Model 3 per week (up to around 7,000 peak) in California and is gearing up for 3,000 per week in China (starting with low-volume in Q4), the Tesla Factory in California would need to increase production significantly maybe to around 7,000+ per week and 90,000+ per quarter (more at peaks).
Together with the start of the Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai, Tesla will also use its local suppliers to provide additional parts:
"CFTC has also landed orders for other components used in Model 3, with shipments to begin in October 2019, the sources said. As Tesla is hiking Model 3 output and its Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai, eastern China, will kick off production of the electric vehicle by year-end 2019, CFTC's shipments to Tesla are expected to rise, the sources noted."
One of the most interesting missing parts is the supply of batteries, which also would need to double. Tesla didn't yet reveal a local battery supplier in China.