January EV Sales Rise Again, As Tesla Model 3, Prime, And Bolt Lead

Red Tesla Model 3 LA Auto Show

FEB 2 2018 BY STEVEN LOVEDAY 108

EV Sales

Toyota Prius Prime

It comes as no surprise that plug-in EV sales were up again this January

Historically, January is not a good month for EV sales. Way back in 2014, the Nissan LEAF set a January EV sales record with an impressive 1,252 deliveries. In 2017, GM and Toyota were able to break that record with Prius Prime sales at 1,366, and Volt sales hitting a whopping 1,611. Not to mention Bolt sales, which didn’t quite break January EV sales records, but were very close behind the old LEAF record, with an impressive 1,162 deliveries. This year, a new January record was set by the Tesla Model 3.

Unplugged Performance Tesla Model 3

For the month, an estimated ~12,049 plug-ins were sold in the U.S., good for a slight gain from the ~11,004 moved in 2017. However, this is down from our estimated ~13,000 plugins sold. No worries, however, we expected January to get off to a rough start due to a multitude of factors.

As we move forward into the new year, numbers will continue to climb. Remember, we have new offerings that are just getting underway (Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, Honda Clarity PHEV, Kia Niro PHEV, and Hyundai IONIQ PHEV). Tesla Model 3 sales are slowly ramping up, the Nissan LEAF will be pushing stronger numbers soon, and the Bolt will be pulling away from a weak sales month, clouded by a detrimental model-year changeover.

Despite its production shortfalls, the Tesla Model 3 was top dog in January, with an estimated 1,875 sales. While the Toyota Prius Prime and Chevrolet Bolt claimed the number two and three spots with 1,496 and 1,177, respectively. We will say that we anticipated a slightly better performance by the Bolt due to healthy inventory, as well as solid growth throughout most of 2017.

Even though we hoped some models would start the year out more aggressively, plug-in sales exceeded January 2017. Let’s not forget that last January was about as stellar a month for EVs as one can imagine, especially for a weak sales month – sales the previous January were only at 6,221. Nonetheless, we are still up, and the year ahead should be super-positive for the segment.

Other Statistical Points of Interest from January 2018

Top Manufacturers Of Plug-In Vehicles:

  1. Tesla* – 3,375
  2. General Motors – 1,890
  3. Toyota – 1,496
  4. BMW Group –  1,018
  5. Ford – 944

All-Electric Vehicle Market Share vs PHEV In January*

  1. PHEV – 6,207
  2. BEV – 5,842

(*) estimated due to unknown official Tesla sales in the U.S. and BMW i3 REX vs. BEV sales.

The full monthly recap by individual plug-in (all-time) can be found on our Monthly Scorecard here.

Categories: Audi, BMW, Cadillac, Chevrolet, Chrysler, Fiat, Ford, Honda, Hyundai, Kia, Mercedes, Mini, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Porsche, Sales, Smart, Tesla, Toyota, Volkswagen, Volvo

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108 Comments on "January EV Sales Rise Again, As Tesla Model 3, Prime, And Bolt Lead"

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Robb Stark
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Robb Stark

If we get semi-accurate estimates for the first two months of a quarter, Model 3 will be permanently Number 1 on the USA sales chart.

Until Model Y is ramped up.

F150 Brian
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F150 Brian

If Tesla maintains their uneven sales over the quarter as they have for S and X, the leaf may have come out ahead in some months once they get going.

The Smyrna plant has capacity for 640,000 vehicles, so they can shift the mix in the Leaf’s favour if the demand exists.

The battery plant they recently sold off has capacity for 200,000 battery packs per year.

floydboy
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floydboy

There are NO uneven sales of Model 3. It’s sold out for at least a year. Production delays are the only worry for Tesla. They resolve that, nobody even gets close.

Lamata
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Lamata

+++1

WARREN
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–1, its,speculation, you dont really know.

Lamata
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Lamata

– 1000,000 for you Mr. “WO WREN” , you haven’t a Clue of what’s transpiring . They shouldn’t leave you alone at the computer at any given time or
as Frequently as they do, because you are Only a common Troll & Tesla Hater who is Mad at the World..

Spider-Dan
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Spider-Dan

The Model 3 is not “sold out for at least a year,” because $1000 refundable deposits are not “sales.”

Gasbag
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Gasbag

We don’t know what they will actually be able to produce.
We don’t know what the conversion rate will be
We don’t know which quarter they will have to play games with to maximize the federal credit for customers.

In spite of the unknown sales totals will almost certainly be a function of production limitations.

ffbj
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ffbj

You know for someone who knows what “we” think you really are quite a royal pain.
At least I think so.

Windbourne
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Windbourne

he did not say anything about what you or I or even himself thinks.
He spoke about facts that we do not know.

Gasbag
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Gasbag

Sometimes the truth is a royal pain

ffbj
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ffbj

How would you know?

Nix
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Nix

We do know that Tesla has a record of high conversion rates on their reservations.

We do know that Tesla has consistently far outsold reservations once the reservations worked through.

We do know that Tesla has continually increased their year-to-year total global sales numbers at a rate far beyond their initial reservation numbers.

What evidence do you have that the Model 3 would be the exception to Tesla’s ongoing trend, when it is actually the much more affordable than any car they have sold to date?

In the world there are uncertainties. That’s the real world. But hyping what-if’s to their illogical worst-case is not a logical reaction to the world’s uncertainties. Especially when the previous record is EXACTLY the opposite of the what-if’s.

Gasbag
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Gasbag

+1 Well put Nix

Pushmi-Pullyu
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Pushmi-Pullyu

+2

Thanks, Nix, for once again giving us a broad view of the subject well grounded in real facts, rather than speculation or an overly narrow focus on one or two factors affecting the whole.

Will
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Will

++. Yeah reservations are not orders. Thats why the model 3 sales are coming too the east coast very early with the trim they are saling at 54k not including taxes. Let’s see sales when the base model comes out

Windbourne
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Windbourne

why will that matter?
I seriously doubt that the base model will be a big seller. At the least, I think that the majority of ppl will either add the bigger battery OR the interior upgrade OR both.

Robert Weekley
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You also forgot that people want the Dual Motor! Some want Long Range + Dual Motor, too, and are holding off for that!

However, the 3 also appeals to those with lower slush fund budgets, that ‘Want a Tesla’, but can’t cover the $9K big battery premium, or the $5K Premium Upgrade, or the $5K EAP option! Dropping those from the price, and getting the base model, even in California, and for Employees, will add a jump in sales!

What is still a big ‘Unknown’, is if the Dual Motor will offer Towing and be rated to Tow, and if the first Dual Motor offerings will only be for a Performance Version, as Elon said the Midel 3 will also get such an offering!

We also don’t know if the Dual Motor Model 3 will have a noticeably Longer Range, over the Single Motor offering! All these are factors that will affect the sales numbers!

jimjfox
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jimjfox

Robert, just a pointer on good English; sentences can and usually do, end with a full stop/ point.
The ! is not compulsory at EVERY sentence conclusion.
“We are not amazed”…

Pluto
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Pluto

What are you talking about! I always end my sentences this way, it’s a perfectly fine thing to do!

Will
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Will

+ if i had 1k reservation i would go for thoer promise 35k with premium option no autopilot since its useless. That will be 41k. Whats the charging rate on 240v

energymatters
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energymatters

Charge rate on 240V is 50amps (12KW). About twice what current public chargers can provide.

Nix
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Nix

Will, do you actually think that the majority of BMW 3-Series sales are stripped base model 320’s?

The sales of base models will be based upon customer demand for base models. And we actually have very good data on that. Model3tracker has a huge data set, and only around 20% of reservation holders there are looking to get the base battery RWD version with minimal options.

Will
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Will

BMW customers are loyal plus the majority are not ev proponents and dont anything about ev

Nix
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Nix

You obviously haven’t owned a BMW in the last 10 years. BMW owners are frustrated with the reliability of their vehicles. On the other hand, Tesla owners have been topping customer satisfaction:

http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-tesla-customer-satisfaction-20171221-story.html

BMW Customer satisfaction is actually very poor lately, with BMW not even being in the top 10:

10 Most Satisfying Brands

• Tesla
• Porsche
• Genesis
• Chrysler
• Audi
• Mazda
• Subaru
• Toyota
• Honda
Lincoln

andre
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andre

what about KIA???

Nix
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Nix

Genesis is actually a Hyundai/Kia family brand. Even they do better than BMW in customer satisfaction.

Pushmi-Pullyu
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Pushmi-Pullyu

There’s my argument against home schooling.

Terawatt
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Terawatt

Profitability!

WadeTyhon
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WadeTyhon

I don’t think the model 3 will have ‘staggered’ sales this year. They should consistently rise. The S and X fluctuate due to global shipments.

For most of this year, the Model 3 is a US only vehicle. Any increase of production means an increase in US sales.

pjwood1
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pjwood1

Well said. They’ll sell every one. The super chargers, that make a difference against luxury ICE cars, should have no problem displacing the other 25-50K BEVs/PHEVs.

Robert Weekley
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Speaking of Superchargers: we turned on a few more large sites in Ontario, Canada this last few days, each with 20 stations, and one with 16, all near Toronto! 2 more 20 stall sites still under construction, near Toronto, likely to turn on shortly! Plus an 8 stall site, that will make a loop through route, very easy from Sudbury, ON, down through Tobermory, ON, and back to Toronto!

wavelet
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wavelet

Maybe, but AFAIK, Tesla is still over a year and a half late with chargers for a Trans-Canada route that Musk promised in mid-2017, and Tesla’s charging map in 2016 showed as being planned for CY2016.
A trans-Canadian route via the Trans-Canada Highway would require 5-6 superchargers for the 1300km+ between Calgary and Winnipeg, and then ~10 more for a route from Winnipeg to Toronto through Thunder Bay, north of the Lakes. I don’t see any of that, let alone anything in the easternmost part of the Trans-Canada, which is this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-Canada_Highway

The Northern-US route Seattle to Minneapolis is also over a year late.

Now, maybe those routes are less important than others, or than urban Superchargers, but it’s not confidence inspiring to publish unrealistic projections for years running.

Pushmi-Pullyu
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Pushmi-Pullyu

If Tesla maintains their uneven sales over the quarter as they have for S and X,

Deliveries of the S and X will continue to use the three-month rotation between Asia/right-hand drive markets, Europe, and U.S./Canada which they have been using for years now, thus the misleadingly lopsided numbers for the third month in the quarter on the InsideEVs Monthly Sales Scorecard, which shows only U.S. sales.

However, at least over the next several months, we should see only U.S. (or perhaps U.S. plus Canada) deliveries for the Tesla Model 3, so that should even things out somewhat.

However, complicating things is the 200,000 limit to U.S. sales for the Federal tax rebate. Tesla may very well choose to concentrate on foreign sales for a few months, especially for the MS and MX, to delay exactly when they pass the milestone of 200,000 U.S. sales.

Robert Weekley
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That ‘Sales and Shipping Focus Shift’, might be the right thing to do, even increasing ‘Inventory’ cars, and ‘In Transit’ cars, to delay the crossing point of the 200,000 mark in the US, to hit in the first week of a new Quarter, and then open the Floodgates!

Would Tesla be able to do that, without getting scrutinized by the SEC, or other giverning bodies, is the big challenge, possibly!

Of course, shipping a few 100 Model S’s or even Model 3’s to buyers in Canada, and even Mexico, to keep from having too many ‘In Transit’, might not be too hard to do! But holding back 10,000 or more might be an issue!

Nix
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Nix

What would the SEC care?

Gasbag
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Gasbag

But holding back 10,000 or more might be an issue!

If we’re talking about shipping a couple of weeks production out of the country I don’t see that as a big problem.

Terawatt
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Terawatt

Inventory is to be avoided – one of the major strengths of Tesla’s dealership-free model is that cars are made to order and delivered straight to the customer without spending months at a dealership.

With such a huge backlog, it makes much more sense to ship abroad than to build inventory.

EVShopper
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EVShopper

Maybe I’m in a minority, but I like being able to shop around and look at cars that I can actually buy that day and drive home.

rey
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Then you will have to keep yourself happy with a Bolt or a leaf or Ionic , all good cars, but Id rather go home with the knockout girl than some tramp that just might happen to be walking the street if you know what I mean

Pushmi-Pullyu
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Pushmi-Pullyu

“Would Tesla be able to do that, without getting scrutinized by the SEC…”

You completely lost me there, Robert. Even in the unlikely event Tesla would choose to stockpile cars as “inventory” in lieu of selling them, to delay passing the 200,000 threshold, why would the SEC care? The SEC would only care if there was evidence of stock manipulation or fraudulent financial reporting.

At any rate, it’s silly. At the worst, Tesla could simply send some TM3’s overseas. American reservation holders would be ticked off, it would be bad for public relations (which is why we can be pretty sure Tesla won’t do that), but it certainly wouldn’t give the SEC any reason to be concerned.

Bloggin
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Bloggin

+++1

WadeTyhon
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WadeTyhon

Sure…

What exactly did Inside EVs have to change last quarter? Especially regarding model 3 deliveries?

They sure seemed to estimate the model 3 deliveries right on the money.

Windbourne
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Windbourne

Model 3 will within 6 months, if not sooner, be the #1 BEV sold on the planet. And that is even with Chinese gov attempting to screw over Tesla.

Mikael
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Mikael

The Model 3 will not be the worlds best selling BEV anytime soon. Maybe in a single month, if that is what you meant. Or possible in 2019.

wavelet
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wavelet

By all appearances, the global bestseller for the coming months will be the BAIC EC-series. For the past few months. they’re consistently at 10K+/months. According to its own projections, Tesla will at best reach that (2500/wk) by end Q1, and I don’t personally believe they’re done with the QA issues yet.
I also expect many of the reservation holders (and it isn’t 400K — the ones outside the US/Canada should be discounted since Tesla won’t likely deliver any elsewhere before 2019) aren’t really interested in the $56K+ models, so the likely conversion from reservation into US orders is not that high — maybe 100K in the US for the coming year.

Roy_H
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Roy_H

Being a big BEV fan, I am glad to see the slight win of 6,200 BEV sales over 5.800 for PHEV despite the 14 models of BEVs on the market vs 27 PHEVs. And with the expected rise of LEAF and Model 3 sales, hopefully that will continue even though there are many PHEV options coming.

Windbourne
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Windbourne

One other element that would be useful to see would be “BEV” >= 150 MPC, vs BEV < 150 MPC. The reason is that somewhere around 150-200 MPC, will mean nighttime chargers, while the less of 150 will mostly charge during the daytime, along with those PHEVs.

JustWillimPDX
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JustWillimPDX

Personally, I don’t know a single EV owner who charges “mostly during the daytime”.

While I agree that having the data to determine such charging habits would be fascinating, I sincerely doubt that ANYONE who sleeps at night doesn’t utilize that “down time” to do the vast majority of charging. The lower price of “off peak demand” electricity is another factor.
Regardless of range, free workplace charging is the only usage scenario that would logically favor “mostly daytime” charging.

TX NRG
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TX NRG

PHEV outsold BEV; the article had the 1 and 2 ranking flipped.

All-Electric Vehicle Market Share vs PHEV In January*

1. BEV – 5,910
2. PHEV – 6,206

The Dude
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The Dude

What is up with the Leaf? How many are they making a week? I expected over 1k sales. What gives?

Ron M
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Ron M

The Dude I’m guessing there not going to make that many of this generation Leaf. A longer range model which is being called a 2019 year model is scheduled to be released September 2018. Ithink it gets 200 mile range.

Robert Weekley
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The 2019 Leaf is stated to have 225 miles range, potentially challenging the current understanding of the base Model 3, at 220 miles range, and if it gets a new liquid Thermal management system for its new battery, migt also challenge Bolt EV sales!

Terawatt
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Terawatt

Expected – nothing has as been stated by Nissan, which is the impression you give. It’s simply based on the battery being 50% bigger and 150*1.5 bring equal to 225.

mx
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mx

This is good.
Because the BOLT Price is what’s keeping Bolt sales down.
And typically, you could lease than but, but GM’s suboptimal handling of the federal tax credit is hurting sales too.

mx
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mx

This is another Tesla advantage.
What’s the price of a Tesla? It’s on the web site.

What’s GM’s price? It’s a Rug Bazar.

fotomoto
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fotomoto

A level playing field only applies to those paying cash and sometimes Tesla offers discounts but they just don’t call them that.

If a trade-in or factory financing is involved, then the waters quickly get murky and two buyers could pay vastly different amounts for the same spec’d Tesla.

David Murray
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David Murray

Production is just now underway on the next generation Leaf. I would imagine sales will rise sharply in the next few months.

ffbj
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ffbj

You can imagine as you wish, but reality, now that’s quite a different matter.

Will
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Will

ffbj stop being a troll. He is stating his opinion

Windbourne
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Windbourne

And while I am not a fan of the leaf, I think that he is correct that it will rise for a bit. The fact is, that leaf TNG esp with the long-range battery (superior cells AND has real HVAC) is superior to the low-end leaf TNG and the previous one.

Pushmi-Pullyu
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Pushmi-Pullyu
The Dude asked: “What is up with the Leaf? How many are they making a week? I expected over 1k sales. What gives?” Quoting from InsideEVs’ latests Monthly Plug-in Sales Scorecard article: Unfortunately, Nissan USA is apparently not as capable as Nissan Japan, which managed to launch the new LEAF as planned in October (to some very impressive results), while the U.S. (and Europe) had to wait until January. This wouldn’t be a problem if the wind-down of the first-gen 2017 model wasn’t pre-planned to be defunct by October. The resulting gap between the ‘new’ and ‘old’ left Nissan with almost no remaining inventory, which caused sales in October to drop to just 213 deliveries, ending an impressive eight-month run of four-digit results. In November, that number dropped further, to 175 sales. December, the best-selling month for EVs, saw only 102 LEAFs delivered. We’re pretty sure Nissan is wishing it had done things differently, as the LEAF closed out 2017 down some 20% overall. Fast forward to today, when the LEAF was supposed to have been rolling off of lots last month, and that’s not quite how it worked out. Cars didn’t begin arriving until recently in small numbers and… Read more »
Gasbag
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Gasbag

Fast forward to today, when the LEAF was supposed to have been rolling off of lots last month

Locally Nissan has consistently been telling customers the 2018s would be here by March. I’ve gotten that from the dealer and customer reps. Both were aware of the Announcements indicating December and both flat out stated March. That goes back to last August.

The only indication of an issue was at the Experience Nissan event held in October they gave away a trip to the production launch in Smyrna and they indicated it was expected to be in mid November. I believe that didn’t actually happen until mid December.

I would expect Nissan to be able to best GM’s Bolt launch because the Bolt was a new car and Leaf is an update. Bolt production started in Oct and they managed to deliver almost 600 at the end of Dec.

(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous
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(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous

I predict TM3 sales in Feb to be 2655.

Unless I hear otherwise from some dudes within Fremont….lol
🙂

Another Euro point of view
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Another Euro point of view

I hope for Tesla you will be wrong as another month under 5K and it will likely be bye bye for 2018 best sold EV title (further east across the pond best EV is currently sold at a rate of 13K+ per month and that could prove hard to catch up given this very slow ramp rythm).

(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous
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(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous

What EV sold 13K+ in one month?

Just curious.

Ramp is really sloooooow…….but it will get there.

ffbj
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ffbj

Not as slow as the incipient Bolt roll-out from last year. That was ridiculous, but the Bolt is history now, yesterday’s news.

I think it might held on longer if GM would have done something about charging it, but that was never to be in the cards, since it’s just a nice compliance car.

WadeTyhon
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WadeTyhon

“Not as slow as the incipient Bolt roll-out from last year.”

Dude, Trollnonymous didn’t even bring up the bolt.

Bolt EV total after 7 months: 8,151 in the US – available in 15 states. Also at that time, about 1,000 sold internationally in Canada, Europe and S Korea.

Model 3 after 7 months: 3,647 with deliveries primarily to California.

The Model 3 will torch the Bolt EV in 2018 sales. But don’t rewrite history and make up crap just because you are a Bolt hater. 😉

ffbj
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ffbj

You don’t know what I said, but yet you criticize it.
Nothing I said about the Bolt was incorrect.

WadeTyhon
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WadeTyhon

You said the Model 3 ramp in its early stages is not as slow as the early stages of the Bolt ramp from last year.

That is wrong. I gave you the correct numbers. It’s not like they’re hidden. You can’t deny reality.

You called the Bolt a compliance car, which is also 100% wrong. As I have told you before, GM has enough ZEV credits to last into the middle of the next decade if they stopped Bolt and Volt production today. The numbers are readily available on the CARB website. I have given them to you before as well.

And your opinion about the Bolt being old news is entirely subjective. You are projecting your own hate for the Bolt and GM onto others.

So literally everything you said about the Bolt was wrong except for charging infrastructure not being ‘in the cards’.

If I am misinterpreting what you said (I don’t see how I could be) then by all means explain what you *really* were saying. 🙂

Emc2
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Emc2

The BAIC EC 180 or EC series in China. With 78,000 units sold it was the top selling plug-in car in 2017.

Pushmi-Pullyu
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Pushmi-Pullyu

“What EV sold 13K+ in one month?

“Just curious.”

Consider the source for that claim: A serial Tesla basher. Did I really need to Google the subject to know it wasn’t true? Nope! I knew before I looked.

Looks like the best-selling PEV in Europe is the Renault Zoe, and it looks like the best monthly sales it’s had over the past few years is ~4000. Usually it’s <3000.

13,000 of one model sold in a month? Maybe on Bizarro Planet FUDster, but not in the real world!

It seems reasonable to expect the Tesla Model 3 to be the first PEV to reach sales of 13,000 per month, and that may well not happen until next year.

WadeTyhon
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WadeTyhon

I understand the instinct to assume Another Euro point of view would be speaking of some model in Europe (and to discount his opinion of Tesla) but he is actually referring to the BAIC EC-Series, a Chinese model.

http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2018/01/china-december-2017.html

IT was the best selling EV of last year, and (I believe) the best selling model in the world in December at 13,000 units.

It was the far and away winner for December. The Chery eQ was next in line in China. and sold 5,650 units.

GM also had a good December in China. The Baojun E100 EV sold 5,545. This is GMs budget line in China that they have an ~50% stake in with Chinese partners SAIC.

Nix
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Nix

He implied 13K a month for a full year, not just 13K a month in A month (one singular month). Mixing one record month numbers with yearly sales numbers is a fallacy.

WadeTyhon
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WadeTyhon

Actually the record month was November at nearly 15,750
October was 11,300
September was 9,143

http://carsalesbase.com/china-car-sales-data/baic/baic-beijing-ec180/

Pretty good way to end it’s first year on the market! It is too soon to see if those numbers continue for 2018 though.

Another Euro point of view
Guest
Another Euro point of view

Yes, this is indeed the car I was referring to above. Now indeed it is not sure it will sell as well in 1st Q 2018 as Chinese EV sales can be weird in the beginning of each year I noticed. I realized I mixed east and west in my post above.

Tom
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Tom

Well it is called the Far East for a reason. Depends on where you start from I suppose.

Pushmi-Pullyu
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Pushmi-Pullyu

WadeTyhon said:

“I understand the instinct to assume Another Euro point of view would be speaking of some model in Europe (and to discount his opinion of Tesla) but he is actually referring to the BAIC EC-Series, a Chinese model.”

Hmmm. Well, what he said was :

“(further east across the pond best EV is currently sold at a rate of 13K+ per month”

I see according to a reply from “Another European…” that you’re correct, he did mean China, but at best that’s geographically confused; that’s not what his statement communicated to me. From his location in Europe, “across the pond” means North America, whereas “further east” would indeed indicate Asia… which certainly isn’t “across the pond” from his location!

/geography

Terawatt
Guest
Terawatt

You’re starting to really show your age; mental acuity and all that.

Next time, do Google. You may not have any comment when you discover he was indeed correct and accurate, but at least it will prevent you from making a total A of yourself by posting that you didn’t “need to Google it to know it wasn’t true”.

Pushmi-Pullyu
Guest
Pushmi-Pullyu

I must say, Terawatt, your absolute dedication to exposing a truly amazing depth of ignorance on virtually every subject, continues to amaze me.

We ought to put your photo up to illustrate the Wikipedia article for the “Dunning-Kruger Effect”. 🙄

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect

Kevin C
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Kevin C

Alrighty then. I like precise numbers. I’m holding you to that. Remind us of your prognostication next month…?

(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous
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(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous

If I’m wrong, I’ll be the first one to not remind you……..lol

On the real, it was talk from Fremont employees over the holidays and that’s Feb is the second part of the slow ramp up.

From the numbers for Jan, they were only off by 75 units.

ffbj
Guest
ffbj

I am going go to up to 3k.

stuart22
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stuart22

Model 3 sales number mentioned, but not a peep about Models S and X sales.

I’ve felt Model S and X sales would fall once the Model 3’s presence is felt at the market level. Which won’t be a good thing for Tesla’s bottom line.

Timothy Hughbanks
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Timothy Hughbanks

That may well be right, but I don’t quite understand why. The Model S should still be able to compete and win against a Porsche – they occupy different market segments.

Pushmi-Pullyu
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Pushmi-Pullyu

When BMW introduced its 3-Series, did sales of its 5-Series drop? No, they went up!

Altho it’s not impossible that Model 3 sales will cannibalize MS and MX sales, I think there is at least a reasonable chance that sales of the more expensive models will actually go up, due to all the extra attention Tesla is getting from the TM3. It has certainly worked that way in the past for other auto makers!

But let’s not forget that Tesla has chosen to reassign some of its engineers and other personnel from MS and MX production to work on ramping up TM3 production. On one earnings call last year, Tesla said that reduced production of the more expensive models by about 10%. Looks to me like that trend continued last month, and quite possibly it will continue for a few more months.

We can hope that Tesla will hire (or has hired) more engineers and more production line workers to replace the transferred employees.

Timothy Hughbanks
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Timothy Hughbanks

The entire market is determined by Model 3 production numbers. With a half a million or so customers waiting for delivery, Tesla has siphoned off so much demand that the year-over-year gains right now are pretty unremarkable. If Model 3 production were to hit 12,000 next month (they won’t) every car would be sold and the scorecard would suddenly look fantastic.

Pushmi-Pullyu
Guest
Pushmi-Pullyu

While that may be true to some extent for the U.S. or the U.S./Canadian market, I think it’s less true for Europe. Demand for plug-in EVs is finally taking off there, moreso than I think it is here, and that trend wouldn’t stop even if Tesla disappeared overnight.

And in China, Japan, and elsewhere in Asia, Tesla has even less overall effect on the market.

Some Tesla cheerleaders may envision Tesla absorbing as much as 90% of the market for PEVs, the way that Ford with its Model T once absorbed 90% of the gasmobile market. I don’t see that happening, because IMHO the worldwide automotive market is too diverse to be dominated by any single manufacturer.

Even if Tesla grows to the size of GM or Toyota, or even larger, is it going to dominate sales in China and India, as well as Europe, Japan, and other regions? I just don’t regard that as a realistic scenario.

Terawatt
Guest
Terawatt

1) Even is Tesla made half a million Model 3s in 2018 – and we all know they won’t! – that’s very far from “the entire market”, unless you expect the market in 2018 to shrink by 50%.

2) Tesla’s ramp up is progressing so slowly it looks like a stretch they’ll manage to make 200k this year. Meanwhile, the global EV market grow so fast it seems quite possible it may reach two million this year. If so, Tesla would account for ten percent of unit sales, which is about the same as 2017 and only a person with a severe case of tunnel vision could describe as “the entire market”.

I hope Tesla survives 2018. So far, the make or break car has come closer to breaking the company than making it. If they can make 200k cars and turn a profit they should be very happy.

Terawatt
Guest
Terawatt

Yay, TM3 on top. Just barely, but at least it’s there now.

I wonder if they’ll make 5000/month, never mind per week, before the quarter is out…

ffbj
Guest
ffbj

Tesla has pared back their predictions, though 5k in the month of March is certainly in the cards.

Texas FFE
Guest
Texas FFE

For those that think EV sales are going to double in 2018, we sure are getting off to poor start. There are a lot of new models coming out but sales of new models are really eating into sales of existing models. Inventories of existing models on dealer lots remain low and inventories of new models are only rising slowly.

Manufacturer commitment is still not there except for Tesla which appears to still be struggling with serious production issues on the Model 3. Model 3 sales in the US will be lucky to see 100,000 this year. There is an outside chance we will see 300,000 EV sales this year but prepare to be disappointed if you think we will see 400,000.

ffbj
Guest
ffbj

I think 125k, though that is long way from many who think they can produce 200k this year. Tesla has a tendency to bite off more than they can chew.

Vexar
Guest
Vexar

I’m looking forward to figures like this:
Tesla outsells all Mazda vehicles
EVs outsell all Cadillac vehicles
GM Bolt outsells the Lexus ES in the USA

cab
Guest
cab

I’m looking forward to a frigin’ Small SUV electric…I mean sheesh, talk about a vehicle with the most obvious chance for success. Speaking of which, whatever happened to GM revealing that Bolt-based larger CUV at the Detroit auto show? Guess that didn’t occur???

Benz
Guest
Benz

Tesla Model 3 deliveries in Q1 2018 will not be more than 10,000.

Total for 2018: 100,000

Counter-Strike Cat
Guest
Counter-Strike Cat

Where are the promised 400000 Tesla Model 3?

Tesla needs to deliver 36193 in each of the following month to reach 400000.

Nix
Guest
Nix

Tesla revised their schedule by 6 months. This was publicly announced and is public knowledge. Apparently you are the only person who doesn’t know this.

Anything else you want to prove you are ignorant of?

CCIE
Guest
CCIE

While everyone else is arguing about when Tesla will get their act together with the M3, I’m going to point out that the Prime’s sales numbers should make us all worried about the poor educational state of the human race.

john1701a
Guest

Ironically, your continuous belittling attempts do exactly that. There’s a very real disconnect between want & need. It’s important to recognize the difference.

CCIE
Guest
CCIE

Nope, a PHEV that is slower than an electric wheelchair and can barely get 25 miles of electric range in 2018 is just sad. No amount of useless marketing terms, like “dual wave glass,” can fix that.

So, if people still buy that car, when clearly superior options are available at the same price or less, then there is an issue with the education system. Again, very sad.

BenG
Guest
BenG

Prime sells better than the Volt for a number of reasons. Not least, IMO, is the second generation Volt’s poor reliability ratings thus far. We now have the 2017 Consumer Reports survey results in, and both the 2016 and 2017 Volt ranked a disappointing 2/5, below average reliability.

The Prime has the performance of a Corolla. There are millions of people out there happy with their Corollas.

CCIE
Guest
CCIE

It sells better than the Volt because people still think Toyota is a leader in hybrids. In reality they stopped innovating a decade ago. They’ve been dragging their feet and hoping EVs will fail. So, supporting their half-assed attempts (the PP and Prime) is bad.

That CR reliability rating for the Gen2 Volt is BS. Anyone who reads the Volt forums regularly knows that. At worst it has average reliability. I agree, that the Gen2 is not as rock solid as the Gen1. But, the Gen1 was one of the best engineered and most reliable cars ever made by anyone.

If we want electric cars to become mainstream, they need to perform better than a Corolla. And really, there is no excuse for any modern car having a 0-60 over 10 seconds.

john1701a
Guest

Dismissal of cost-reduction along with efficiency improvements is rather blatant denial of what mainstream consumers actually need.

CCIE
Guest
CCIE

What cost reduction? Toyota puts a small battery in their PHEVs to keep costs down. But, in reality, the Volt and Prime can be purchased for the same price out-the-door.

Mainstream consumers don’t buy EVs and PHEVs. The smart people that are buying want to have good all-electric range and reasonable performance. The Prime doesn’t provide either. The Volt provides both.

Again, Prime sales are being driven by an outdated view of Toyota as a leader in the field.

CCIE
Guest
CCIE

Just saw that Car & Driver has another solid write-up of the Volt.

https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/2018-chevrolet-volt-in-depth-model-review

The article’s tag line says it all: Still driving electric circles around the competition.

gaps-diet.tumblr.com
Guest

Called the Jewish Tinder”, it’s.