YouTube Electrified channel host Dillon Loomis recently posted a video in which he announced that he is making a “prediction spreadsheet.” He is intent on tracking predictions made by analysts and pundits. He wants to track how accurate those predictions turn out to be.
Well, I’m going to have a go and make a few predictions of my own. Dillon, please feel free to add them to your spreadsheet, if you like. (Not that I’m an expert on anything, but I reckon I can proffer an opinion about the future as well as anyone can, provided the publicly available data.)
Tesla’s Growth
Tesla’s recent outstanding delivery numbers for 2021 threw a lot of people for a loop, particularly those with ties to Wall Street. Dillon pointed out that predictions made by those who can be termed “the Tesla community” came much closer to the actual delivery numbers, but even they came up short. Now people are lining up to give their predictions for 2022 deliveries.
Here is mine. Tesla will deliver at least 1.7 million vehicles in 2022.
Tesla’s annualized production rate is already at about 1.2 million. I suspect that Tesla’s past experience in ramping factories will come into play and it will accelerate the Austin and Berlin factory ramps. I do not think it a stretch to suppose that the two factories together can produce 500k vehicles in 2022 (given that the Berlin factory gets approvals and actually comes online before Q2). This is a bit of an ironic paradox (OK, I know, that isn’t a real thing I but I think you’ll get what I’m saying) because this means those two factories will add more deliveries in 2022 than Tesla sold in total in 2020.
In 2023, I predict that Tesla will deliver at least 2.3 million vehicles. The factory ramps will continue to be fleshed out, but there will be shrinking headroom for growth. The exception to this will be if Tesla greatly expands capacity at the two factories. Otherwise, the only way for Tesla to keep growing will be to build more factories.
By the end of 2025, Tesla will have completed or will be nearing the completion of at least one more new factory. I would not be surprised if during that year Tesla is again concurrently working on at least two new factories.
I want to interject that if in the future Tesla can produce and sell a vehicle with a 60 kWh (usable) battery pack for under $28,000, it will expand its addressable market by many, many millions of customers. If I were in charge of Tesla marketing I’d be very tempted to call it the model Mars or just Mars. (The logo would be some sort of reference to the Mars transfer orbit, something at least vaguely akin to what the StarLink receivers now have on them.)
Jordon Giesige, YouTube The Limiting Factor host believes that if Tesla teamed up with BYD and used their blade batteries, Tesla could produce just such a vehicle “at roughly a 30% profit margin.” See his recent video for more details.
General EV Adoption
By the end of 2025 in North America will reach at least 5%, meaning that at least one out of every 20 cars we see on the roads will have a plug and be able to be driven either always or much of the time solely on electric power.
By the end of 2025, at least 2% of ALL vehicles on North American roads will be Tesla vehicles. So, yes, at least 40% of the electric vehicles in North America will be Tesla brand vehicles.
Tesla's Full Self-Driving
This will likely be my most sketchy prediction, the one that could get me into the hottest water. By the end of 2022, Tesla's FSD Beta will be very competent. Driver interventions will be way down. Even Gali Russell will find it usable and useful.
By the end of 2023, Tesla will release FSD into the wild to any paying customer with a Tesla driving score above 40.
By the end of 2025, Tesla FSD will be fully proved out, only awaiting governmental approvals to allow the vehicles to drive themselves. Tesla FSD owners will routinely allow its cars to do the driving for them. (I’m not going to say it. You can imagine the implications and possible scenarios.)
Some detractors may say that I’m way off. Some “experts” don’t see self-driving as a real possibility until near the end of this decade or beyond. I say this. Consider where Tesla's “self-driving” was four years ago and compare it to where it is today. Project out those improvements, even in a straight line, over the next four years and imagine where the technology could be by then. It seems clear to me that extremely competent Tesla self-driving vehicles are very likely by the end of 2025.
What do you think about all this? What key predictions do you have?
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