According to our data, Tesla has delivered by the end of 2021 more than 2,335,000 all-electric cars, which is by way more than anyone else.
Anyway, that's a very high number for the EV segment and considering the recent production rate of 308,600 units in Q4 2021, we should see 2.5 million total and 2 million Model 3/Model Y in February/March.
Tesla's CEO Elon Musk said that it will take 30-40 years before all cars (globally) will be replaced with BEVs. That's 2 billion units.
However, within the next 12 months, Tesla might get close to 4 million units, as it already produces more than 0.1 million per month (Q4 2021 average).
Assuming 1.5 million new Tesla cars in 2022, there would be over 3.8 million total, maybe more, depending on what the current year will bring. 4 million Teslas would be a tremendous achievement.
We believe that the EV market is advancing on the S-curve, quickly expanding from thousands to millions. And Tesla is not alone, as other manufacturers also hope to produce and sell more than 1 million BEVs per year before 2025.
For the automotive industry, the previous decade was mostly a decade of EV denial. This decade is the time to get into million-level or... well, there is no alternative other than fade and bankruptcy.
On the other hand, a lot has to be done, in terms of prices (higher upfront cost), charging infrastructure, range and market availability of EVs.