Tesla Model 3 Final Reveal Set For June 2?

MAR 6 2017 BY STEVEN LOVEDAY 41

Based on the fact that the new Project Loveday commercial competition is set to run until May 8, with the winner being chosen after May 22, we may have a guess as to what the assumed grand prize will be.

The Tesla website states:

Grand Prize Winner (1): The Entrant with the top winning Submission will be invited to and introduced at a future Tesla product launch event

On or about May 29, 2017, the Grand Prize Winner will be sent an email notification with instructions on how to claim the prize. The prize must be claimed by June 2, 2017.

What might Tesla be planning for June 2nd (or thereabouts), and why might the winner have to act so fast?

Likely Model 3, Part 3 right? One would assume that that’s the only substantial launch event that Tesla would be planning for the immediate future. There wouldn’t be a better event to invite and introduce the winner to, and the event would present the perfect opportunity for Tesla to “air” the winning commercial, due to the wide level of press coverage, and the huge audience.

Perhaps Tesla picked June 2nd to give the winner a bit of time to make travel arrangements, once the prize is claimed and details are divulged.

Obviously, “Model 3 Part 3” will have to happen within a reasonable time around that date if production is to begin this July.

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41 Comments on "Tesla Model 3 Final Reveal Set For June 2?"

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PBrawnerR

As much as I would love to have concrete news of a reveal date… This assumes that to “claim” is to attend the event as opposed to indicating an intention to attend. If I won a tv in a contest to claim it would be to indicate that I would like the TV and I am eligible to claim it. Later (i.e., after they certify I won within the rules, it is shipped) I would receive it. Similarly if I make an insurance claim I am merely informing the company that they should help pay for something in the future. They will not cut a check immediately, and even if they did it will take time to arrive.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Right. If the “respond by” date is June 2, then we can be sure the actual event will be at a later date. To suggest the actual event would be June 2 is just lazy reporting.

The thing to do here is for those who received invitations to past Tesla “reveal” events to check the dates involved. How many days or weeks before the date of the actual event was the “respond by” deadline?

When do people expect the configurator to be released?

CDAVIS

~11:45pmEST Jun 2nd

Nix

I predict it will be scheduled for 11:45pmEST Jun 2nd, but won’t be available until 11:47 due to delays caused by the 2-speed transmission.

*rimshot* Ba dum tss

Zwalderon

Configurator will be available about a week before the 3rd reveal to Tesla employees.
Those employees will receive the first of the Model 3s and will test them for a short while before launching to the public.

realistic

Any guess about what constitutes “a short while”?

Roy_H

A manufacturer like GM would test production cars (made on the production line) at least 6 months before selling any to the public.
The idea that These first production cars will be made in the June/July time frame and sold to the general public just 2 or 3 months later suggest to me that the early purchasers will be beta testers and have lots of bugs to report. Not a good idea IMHO.

Nix
Beta car manufacturing began Feb 20th. Sources posted here many times (ibid). Yes, the initial set of early cars that will go to employees are intended to be very low production volume for the first two months exactly so they can work out any last minute bugs before ramping up to Volume Production. That puts the Tesla timeline of Beta to Volume Production from Feb to Sept, at right around 7 months. Does 7 months satisfy your 6 month requirement? Yes, there may be minor reworks in the cars built in July. No, they aren’t going to go out the door with major problems. Yes, Tesla does things more like Silicon Valley than like the Big 3 US car makers. Including using WILLING customers to WANT to be part of helping finalize the last details, and WANT to be part of Tesla’s success. Just like the millions of people who willingly downloaded and beta tested Windows 10. Adapting Silicon Valley techniques has proven to be a big success for Tesla. While it is trendy around here for certain people to bash the Model X for quality, the reality is that after the first few months, Tesla reports they saw a… Read more »
Mark C

In my case, I expect the configurator to open about 8-11 months +/- before they invite me to use it. Sigh….

David Murray

That’s actually kind of sad to make everyone wait until the last minute to see the production model. I mean, if they are building pre-production models now and are supposed to be actually making real customer product later this year, I don’t understand why we haven’t already seen the production version?

Alan

Good job you are not waiting for Leaf 2.0 then !

Pushmi-Pullyu

“…if they are building pre-production models now and are supposed to be actually making real customer product later this year, I don’t understand why we haven’t already seen the production version?”

The obvious answers — not necessarily correct, but obvious — are:

1. If they’re just now (or rather, starting Feb. 20) building a second round of pre-production units, then they need some time to allow for actual testing and any subsequent changes that the result of such tests might indicate are needed.

2. There have been a lot of comments asserting or at least suggesting that Tesla is doing quite well at attracting more Model S/X sales from all the publicity over the Model 3. If that’s true, then Tesla has a strong motive to put off showing the final form of the M3, in the hope that more prospective buyers will switch to the higher-priced MS or MX.

Nix

#2 — Yup, Tesla is actively upselling to the Model S. Even going as far as re-introducing the entire line of 60’s with lower prices in order to capture as many up-sales as possible.

Dav8or

If this latest round of wild speculation is true, I think that tells you something about how far along these “production cars” are. Basically Tesla can make you wait as long as they want. They have already seen that competing cars like the Bolt have not caused many drop outs on the reservation list. They now know you want it so bad they have you by the short hairs.

Nix

The final reveal is a Marketing event, not an engineering event. The purpose of the final reveal is to sell the Model 3, not to prove how complete the engineering is for production.

But Tesla’s first reveal already did that job of selling customers on the TM3, generating way more reservations than Tesla (or practically anybody else) ever thought.

The only thing a Model 3 reveal can do to change Tesla’s sales numbers this quarter or next quarter would be to have an “Osborne Effect” on Model S and Model X sales. It won’t increase Model 3 sales, and they already have enough reservations.

I don’t see any sales upside for Tesla in them doing a reveal until as late in the 2nd Quarter as possible.

Terawatt

Nix, I can assure you Tesla has never aired an “engineering event”. Nor will they. Engineering is superficially featured in their marketing events, but that’s it. It is far too difficult a subject to lend itself towards events anyway!

William

I say 6/9/17 Model 3 reveal is my “Final Answer”. But, the earlier the better. This will be an amazing event for those that attend!

Masum

Any news about Model Y? Tesla need to bring more car in it’s hand. The more type of car, the more sell will come.

JeffD

No new news yet, but I would guess we could hear something after Model 3 hits full production and things are going smoothly before publicly announcing the next big auto. I expect more factory and service center announcements before they try to announce another new vehicle.

realistic

How would you define “full production”? This is not a sneaky question; I just want to have an idea of what the general M3 enthusiast would accept as “full production”.

Before the first Model Xs were delivered to various early investors and key insiders, the commitment was for production deliveries in Q3. The company delivered six acrs. In Q4 they built about 500 and shipped around 250 (+/-).
I think it’s reasonable to say that Model X was in “full production” about at the Q1/Q2 transition of 2016, with several hundred per week.

So would it be reasonable to say that definition will apply to Model 3 as well?

IMO, if Tesla is genuinely planning some sort of “employees only” delivery bloc of hundreds of cars to Tesla badge wearers, then that doesn’t count. Those cars would most certainly be built to unvalidated configurations. (BTW, even though I’m a Tesla skeptic I don’t think Tesla will do this; still, it’s a frequent topic of speculation here.)

Also, nothing has ever kept Tesla (or the former Solar City) from announcing the next prouct well in advance of a current project completion, so there’s no reason to think that a “Model Y” won’t be unvelied next week.

(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous

“How would you define “full production”?”

When the first single car rolls off the line that is NOT an employee purchased car but a regular schmucks car purchase.

BenG

I’d personally say that ‘full production’ would be the 5,000 car/week build rate that Monk mentioned they aim for by the end of 2017.

It’s kind of arbitrary to pick that particular goal-post but that’s mine for now. 🙂

R.e. Model Y, I agree Tesla will not introduce it until the Model 3 is well established. They’ll want to focus media attention on the 3 as it is fully introduced, delivered, and ramped up.

needa

5k was my first thought when I read the question. But if they are pumping out 2500 a week b4 2018 I think I would consider that substantial, and good enough.

Nix

5,000 per week is what Tesla themselves defines as full volume production. And they have publicly published schedules of parts arriving in that volume in September.

Dav8or

I don’t think they would unveil the Model Y until after 3s are shipping. The reason being, it may well cause many people waiting for the 3 to cancel and wait for the Y. They would likely want the cash flow right about now, so I don’t think they will do anything that might prevent as many quick sales as possible.

needa

One of the few, if not the only, skeptics I have seen capable of defending their stance without trolling.

Nix

Definitely way better than average 90% of the time. Worthy of respect.

JeffD

I would consider full production to be the previously mentioned 5,000 per week goal. This would be enough for any issues that might not have previously been ironed out to be dealt with. One of the reasons I feel they will at least wait til then to announce the Model Y, is they are both on the same platform. You don’t want to have issues still lingering with a platform and try to build something else upon it.

Nix

Well, Tesla technically announced the Model 3 way back in 2007 as the “Bluestar” in their publicly published “Secret plan”. So it isn’t like they’ve been trying to keep it a secret.

Same goes for the Model Y. They’ve technically already announced it. And the GEN II Roadster and future pickup, etc. So yea, they can and will announce whatever they feel like, whenever they feel like it.

Nix

Realistic — “IMO, if Tesla is genuinely planning some sort of “employees only” delivery bloc of hundreds of cars to Tesla badge wearers, then that doesn’t count.”

It is actually more like 10,000 (maybe even 13,000) cars into the hands of Tesla and SpaceX employees. Even with 20% cancellation rate, that is enough to keep them busy for their first 2 months of lower volume production.

https://electrek.co/2016/06/09/tesla-model-3-data-spacex-employees-reservations/

Taylor S Marks

Going forward, I think Tesla will be much more secretive about their cars than they were with the Model 3. With the Model 3, Tesla needed the huge reservation numbers a year in advance so they could take them to suppliers to show that Tesla was serious when they said they wanted millions of parts per year.

At least with the Model Y, I don’t think Tesla will need to show huge reservation numbers to get suppliers on board with providing millions of parts per year. So they’ll probably have an initial reveal of the Model Y no more than 6 months before beginning customer deliveries.

They may have to still reveal things earlier for the pickup, semi, and bus… those are in completely different markets, so it’s less certain how much demand there is for those products.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Right. Advertising the Model Y at this point would, to a greater or lesser extent, cause an “Osborne effect” problem with the Model 3.

As you say, the first (and any subsequent) Model Y “reveal” will very likely be much closer to the actual start of production of that model.

needa

Right. So if Tesla would have received the number of reservations they thought they were going to get… no suppliers would have talked to them?
Seriously… quit pulling idiotic thoughts out of thin air. You are ultimately proven wrong each and every time I see it.

Nix

needa — I’m not sure he’s saying that, but I’m not familiar with his posting history enough to know what he normally posts. So I’m not really commenting on his post as much as throwing in my 2 cents:

It is a very real thing in the finance world to establish product viability through things like reservations and the number of people who sign up to mailing lists, etc. Being able to show potential customers definitely helps attract funding.

pjwood1

Just from the delay, so far, I put greater odds the prototypes will be photographed before we officially have confirmation that what is in them, will be what is in production.

The only wild card in my head is Tesla’s December hiring, of Volvo’s Anders Bell, to presumably work on their interiors. No idea if that includes version 1.0, of the Model 3.

ffbj

Maybe June 22nd. Musk has a penchant, in my view, for reveals to coincide with astronomical events.

Steve

Good guess.

IMO there will be factory downtime during the week of July 4th so that final adjustments to the assembly lines can be done. After that, employee cars will begin to be built.

I’m still holding out for another reveal of something, e.g. HUD, in Model S+X before end of Q1, i.e. by March 31st, to coincide with 100D deliveries which will ship with those changes.

Nix

If there were to be a big reveal for the S+X, my money would be on 2170 batteries ahead of schedule. The Gigafactory seems to be flying in pace, and it would allow Tesla to increase their profit margin on the S+X.

Tesla signed a 4-year contract for Model S batteries way back in 2013, that is supposed to expire some time in 2017:

http://www.autonews.com/article/20131030/OEM05/131039990/tesla-awards-panasonic-4-year-battery-contract

I still haven’t seen an announcement for what is going to happen when that contract ends.

Of course the way Tesla does it, one day a new option will magically appear on the configuration website showing all new orders will have 2170 cells, with no formal announcement. But insideev’s will publish a story ahead of time about some insider saying it is coming, or some hacker seeing a stub for the new battery in some lines of code from a new software refresh… *grin*

Bill Howland

Humm, pretty nice looking car, as long as its available in something other than Silver. I’ve had too many Silver cars in the past and need a change. I think it looks better than the current “S”.

Terawatt

It looks stunning in this picture. But I’ve seen many where it looks oddly proportioned, with an undersized now relative to the rest of the vehicle. That may have practical advantages, but it’ll take some getting used to.