The first quarter of 2024 has interrupted Tesla's growth of electric vehicle production and deliveries. The volume decreased year-over-year for the first time since Q2 2020 when the company was constrained by lockdowns.

It's worrying news, especially since it comes after a challenging 2023 when the growth was fueled by deep price reductions.

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Tesla remains the largest EV manufacturer

Tesla produced and sold the highest number of all-electric cars in 2023 (over 1.8 million units). In Q1 2024, Tesla had a solid advantage over BYD.

In this post, we will take a look at the numbers and charts to visualize the progress and to better understand what is happening and what to expect in the near future.

Results Q4 2023

In Q1, Tesla's global electric car production amounted to 433,371, nearly 2% less than a year ago.

As usual, the lion's share (over 95%) fell on the Model 3/Model Y duo - 412,376 (down 2% year-over-year). Production of "other models" (the Model S, Model X, Cybertruck, and potentially even the Semi) amounted to 20,995 (up 8% year-over-year).

The total global deliveries amounted to 386,810, down almost 9% year-over-year. In terms of the two vehicle groups, the Model 3/Model Y duo noted 369,783 deliveries (down 10% year-over-year), while the "other models" noted 17,027 deliveries (up 59% year-over-year).

Tesla Q1'2024 results (YOY change):

  • Total production: 433,371 (down 2%)
    • Model 3/Y production: 412,376 (down 2%)
    • Other model production: 20,995 (up 8%)
  • Total deliveries: 386,810 (down 9%)
    • Model 3/Y deliveries: 369,783 (down 10%)
    • Other model deliveries: 17,027 (up 59%)

* We are not entirely sure whether the "Other models" category includes the Tesla Semi electric truck, whose numbers were never reported separately.

The results are disappointing, especially because Tesla typically had consistent growth year-over-year. However, it might be a temporary slowdown, as Tesla wrote: "Decline in volumes was partially due to the early phase of the production ramp of the updated Model 3 at our Fremont factory and factory shutdowns resulting from shipping diversions caused by the Red Sea conflict and an arson attack at Gigafactory Berlin."

We can note that the Cybertruck deliveries started to boost the "Other Models" category, which replaced the Model S/Model X category.

Results Q1-Q4 2023

For reference, in Q1-Q4 2024, Tesla produced over 1.84 million electric vehicles globally and delivered over 1.8 million electric vehicles to customers.

Tesla Q1-Q4'2023 results (YOY change):

  • Total production: 1,845,985 (up 35%)
    • Model 3/Y production: 1,775,159 (up 37%)
    • Other models production: 70,826 (down 0.5%)
  • Total deliveries: 1,808,581 (up 38%)
    • Model 3/Y deliveries: 1,739,707 (up 39%)
    • Other model deliveries: 68,874 (up 3%)

Charts

Total deliveries

Deliveries by model

Several days ago, Tesla produced its six millionth electric car. As of the end of the first quarter, the cumulative deliveries exceeded 5.84 million units, including over 5.15 million Model 3/Model Y.

Total production

Production by model

During the past four quarters, Tesla produced and delivered more than 1.77 million electric vehicles. It's a slight decline from over 1.8 million vehicles in 2023.

In the past, Tesla's long-term goal was to increase sales by about 50% year-over-year, but the year 2024 might be much more challenging to achieve significant growth.

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