Tesla aims to grow production and deliveries by 50 percent year-over-year, and some people believe it's on track to do just that for 2022. It hasn't been an easy year for automakers across the globe, and Tesla had one relatively rocky quarter, but it seems there are plenty of positives in the present and the future. In fact, according to Global Equities Research analyst Trip Chowdhry, Tesla is on track to deliver more than a whopping 500,000 EVs in Q4 2022. 

As we've previously reported, Chowdhry visits Tesla's factories and tracks production and deliveries. He uses the visits to get a handle on factory productivity in comparison to previous visits, as well as to note any issues, concerns, or bottlenecks that may be limiting successful production efforts. 

Chowdhry's recent visit to Tesla's original factory in Fremont, California, left him with some details that convinced him of his delivery estimate of over 500,000 cars next quarter. At this point, we have no idea how many electric vehicles Tesla will deliver in Q3 2022, so estimating Q4 2022 deliveries is a difficult task. This is especially true since Tesla doesn't provide the same detailed production and delivery reports as most automakers.

According to Teslarati, Chowdhry isn't the only analyst visiting Tesla's factories and making similar estimates. George Gianarikas of Canaccord Genuity also visited and came to many similar conclusions.

Chowdhry pointed out employee work effort, long hours, working over the holiday weekend, and Tesla's production timeframe as a whole, which he said is at least 10 percent more efficient than it was just last quarter. He also reported that Tesla is ramping up production and deliveries of its Model S Plaid.

The analyst went on to reveal that CEO Elon Musk is, once again, sleeping at the factory at times. This time, Musk spent three nights or so at Tesla's new Gigafactory and headquarters in Austin, Texas. Finally, Chowdhry noted that while he was visiting Giga Texas, car carriers loaded with Model Y crossovers were leaving the factory on September 1. Below are Chowdhry's most up-to-date Q4 2022 delivery estimates via Teslarati:

  • Fremont: 145,000
  • Giga Shanghai: 246,000
  • Giga Berlin: 60,000
  • Giga Texas: 60,000
    TOTAL: 511,000

Looking back, Tesla delivered about 310,000 EVs in Q1 2022 and some 255,000 in Q2 2022. This adds up to about 565,000 of the ~1.5 million cars Tesla aims to deliver in 2022, leaving some 935,000 yet to be delivered. With Chowdrhy's estimate of 511,000 Tesla vehicles delivered in Q4 2022, this means the automaker would have to deliver about 424,000 EVs in Q3 2022.

What's your Tesla delivery estimate for Q4 2022? What about Q3 2022? Or, if you'd rather, tell us how many EVs you think Tesla will deliver across the globe for the entire year. Leave us your thoughts below.

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