In usual Tesla fashion, the end-of-quarter push is in motion. Based on several reports, as well as footage from this recent Fremont factory flyover, it appears Tesla is cranking out cars and moving them out to owners rapidly.
This comes as no surprise. Tesla ramps up local and domestic deliveries at the end of every quarter. However, this particular quarter has been quite interesting. Tesla recently refreshed all of its cars, and it even shut down the Fremont factory briefly before officially launching the refreshed Model S and Model X.
We haven't heard the usual stories about Tesla pulling demand levers. No price reductions or free Supercharging or any other "special tricks" to promote sales, at least as far as we understand. Instead, Tesla has actually raised some prices in the U.S. and abroad. We also haven't heard stories about Tesla rounding up its local fans to help with delivery efforts.
So, how many cars will Tesla deliver in Q1 2021?
Wall Street expects Tesla to report delivering 170,000 cars in Q1 2021. If it pulls it off, it will be a 92% year-over-year-increase. Tesla only produced 102,672 cars in Q1 2020. During that quarter, just one year ago, Tesla delivered just 88,400.
It's probably safe to say Tesla will have no problem beating production and delivery numbers year over year, and likely by a huge margin. However, we have no way of knowing whether it will meet or beat Wall Street's 170k estimate.
The other question comes down to whether or not Tesla can actually beat Q4 2020 numbers. Tesla's Q4 production and delivery numbers have been its biggest push in past years. Historically, topping Q4 delivery figures in Q1 would have seemed impossible. However, Tesla delivered 180,570 cars in Q4 2020, not too far away from Wall Street's Q1 2021 forecast of 170,000.
Based on a growing number of estimates and reports floating around the web, as well as this recent Front factory flyover, it appears that Tesla may be attempting to do just that. In the past, the company has gotten burned for a lack of growth from Q4 to Q1. Can it beat the odds?
Check out the video above. Then, leave us your Tesla Q1 2021 production and delivery estimates in the comment section below.