Is Tesla's 500K/Year Giga Berlin Output Low Considering 8 Giga Presses?

Between China and Europe, it seems Tesla may be keeping its estimates conservative.

Tesla Giga Berlin (Gigafactory 4) Model Y factory construction (Tesla Q4 2020 report)

Steven Loveday

By: Steven Loveday

Feb 4, 2021 at 10:48am ET

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Tesla just barely hit its 2020 production and delivery estimates, though we are in the midst of one of the worst global pandemics in history. Is the company playing it safer going forward?

This is obviously a tough question to answer, especially this early in the game. In addition, Tesla didn't share a concrete production and delivery estimate for 2021, though it did speak about potential growth. Perhaps the company is sandbagging just to be sure not to let Wall Street down.

Tesla has maintained aggressive production and delivery estimates over the past years, and it seems every quarter there's a race to perform. However, 2021 will be a very interesting year for Tesla. Much like 2020, the global COVID-19 pandemic is still heavily upon us. Moreover, with Tesla expanding factories and building two more at the same time, it's really difficult to put a fair number on the automaker's potential annual output.

According to Teslarati, Giga Berlin will be able to produce some 500,000 vehicles per year once it reaches full capacity. Despite some roadblocks, the factory is supposed to begin manufacturing Tesla vehicles later in 2021. In fact, Tesla says Model Y production at the plant will start by the middle of this year.

Based on reports, Phase 1 Giga Berlin factory construction includes a whopping 8 Giga Presses. If the machines are as capable as advertised, and the manufacturing process is as streamlined as Tesla expects it to be, perhaps an annual output of 500,000 vehicles is actually very conservative.

Per Teslarati, Tesla's IDRA Giga Press is capable of 40 to 45 completed casting per hour, or about 1,000 per day. This is only a single Giga Press. So, with 8 working at the same time at Giga Berlin, that's the potential for 8,000 completed castings per day. Teslarati speculates:

"If one were to assume that Tesla uses three megacasts per Model Y and a 20% downtime for each Giga Press, the Germany-based plant may very well be on track to produce significantly more than the 500,000 vehicles that the EV maker has declared in its filings."

What do you think?

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Others in the Tesla community following the situation closely estimate that Giga Berlin could easily crank out 1 million vehicles per year if all 8 Giga Press machines are working in tandem.