Musk Email: Let’s Go All Out Sunday For Victory Beyond All Expectations

SEP 30 2018 BY ERIC LOVEDAY 107

In a last-minute push, Tesla CEO emails employees to urge an all-out Sunday.

As the world awaits Tesla’s Q3 earnings report, early indications point towards profit.

Musk penned an email to all of Tesla’s employees on Saturday. The email states:

We are very close to achieving profitability and proving the naysayers wrong, but, to be certain, we must execute really well tomorrow.

If we go all out tomorrow, we will achieve an epic victory beyond all expectations.

Today is the end of the third quarter and it’s believed that Tesla will soon report a Q3 profit, but Musk is pushing for more, more and more. Mostly Model 3 deliveries, but the S and X will be in the mix, too.

In a just a few hours, InsideEVs will begin to report on our sales expectations for Tesla and a few other automakers. So, stay tuned for more to come soon.

Source: Bloomberg

Categories: Tesla

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107 Comments on "Musk Email: Let’s Go All Out Sunday For Victory Beyond All Expectations"

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Benz

@ Eric Loveday

“In a just a few hours, InsideEVs will begin to report on our sales expectations for Tesla and a few other automakers. So, stay tuned for more to come soon.”

You mean already today (30 September), or tomorrow (1 October)?

Wade Malone

We will provide our expectations for US GM and Tesla deliveries in our ‘What to Expect this month’ article based on deliveries through Friday and projecting sales data for saturday and sunday (and Monday for GM). So the final numbers might increase or decrease depending on how well they execute deliveries this weekend.

Following that, expect final sales breakdowns and an update to the chart during the week after GM and Tesla release their quarterly numbers. We will compare it to our own, filtering out est canadian Model 3 sales (that finally saw a boost in september.)

Benz

OK

Already looking forward to it.

Thanks

Madan R

Dear Mr. Wade Malone. Please don’t provide any estimate until 2018-09-30 23:59:59, let the thrill and zeal build up.
And any time >= 2018-10-01 00:00:00 provide the estimate / detail that you have so that the 1st estimate contains the sales of yesterday (Saturday) and today (Sunday).

Magnus H

Will there be official sales numbers provided for Tesla and the other manufacturers, or are some estimated even though it’s a end of quarter?

Taylor Marks

Tesla only gives global quarterly numbers. InsideEVs will take that and give us an estimate for September US numbers.

Actually… I think they’ll have exact data from the Canadian government, and Model 3 deliveries are only in the US and Canada so far, so you can just take Tesla’s numbers and subtract out Canada’s numbers.

james

More and more companies are moving to quarterly… see previous posts here.

a-kindred-soul

I think this means profit it close, but not yet guaranteed in Q3. Not that it does matter much since it will be there in Q4. However, imagine the joy of the shorts if Tesla would be just 10 dollars in the red. And imagine the press: “Tesla misses sales forecast!”

So Musks last effort is understandable.

gagaga

“Not that it does matter much since it will be there in Q4.”
They might produce a profit in Q3 – but they will be back in the red in Q4. They sold all these high priced models out of the order backlog in Q3, and will fall back onto the lower margin models in Q4 and beyond. No way to become sustainably profitable.
The huge question is, if they manage to place an equity offering into the euphoria caused by a single profitable quarter.

G2

And the Negative Nellies move the goalposts (yet) again…

Taylor Marks

Does what they say surprise you, though? I called it 6 months ago that this is what shorts would be saying today. I’m long TSLA, but you have to understand what the short thought process is. How can you invest if you don’t know both sides of the story?

Anyways, the shorts will be saying the exact same thing at the end of Q4 after Tesla is profitable again. They’ll talk about how the US incentives are going away which will lead to lower demand/sales. They’ll talk about how Tesla is either lying about the $35K Model 3 or about how it won’t be profitable. And you’ll basically hear those exact same things shouted all the way through 2019.

It’s not until we get to 2020 where the shorts really run out of ammo. At that point, the US incentives are gone, the $35K Model 3 is in full swing, Semi is here, and the Model Y is on its way. We’ve got pictures of the Chinese Gigafactory coming together, and Tesla hasn’t reported quarterly losses in nearly two years. That’s the point where shorts really stumble and you stop hearing from them.

antrik

Their story is becoming less plausible by the day, though. I think we should see much of the noise die down a lot sooner — in fact, my impression is that there is *already* less of it… (Though I guess it might just be coincidence that I have come into contact with it less?)

EVFan

Yes, I was thinking the same about shorts.

Ron M

There will be about 350,000 EV’s sold in the US in 2018 and half of them will be Tesla’s. The competition is non existent.

marshall

Maybe, but they still haven’t delivered or even built much in the way of model 3s for outside of the USA and Canada. So there are still plenty of months left for the high end long range models.

The unknown is the Trump tariff tax and how it will effect exports.

As auto-pilot improves, battery cost goes down and production numbers go up, I think they are here to stay.

antrik

Actually, the trade war already has crashed Chinese sales… Though I guess there might be other unknowns.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“…they will be back in the red in Q4.”

That’s extremely unlikely.

Going forward, we can expect Tesla to show a profit in most quarters. That’s not to say there won’t be an occasional need for Tesla to spend more than they earn in a quarter, to buy down Tesla’s debt or when there are some significant one-time expenses; but Elon has made it very clear that profitability has been given a priority at Tesla, and that is very unlikely to change.

HH

Please take that post of yours, print it out and stick it above your monitor.

Chris O

On the one hand the high end models will become a smaller percentage of total sales at some point (it’s not like most BMW 3 Series sales are M3’s) but on the other hand Tesla will have to spend less on solving production crises and scale economics are increasingly starting to kick in. This should even make the $35K version profitable according to some expert calculations.

a-kindred-soul

You forget that the world doesn’t consist of the USA only. How many high priced models will have been reserved in Europe, China and elsewhere, do you think? Tesla can keep mixing in high priced models with the cheaper ones (that will be delivered in the USA in 2019) as they see fit and that way “manage” their margin and profit.

james

They are making over 20% on each car, so they either need to ship more of the expensive cars to get more money or even more of the lower priced cars… it’s simple math.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Close, but not yet guaranteed: That’s exactly my reaction to Elon’s post.

“We are very close to achieving profitability and proving the naysayers wrong” indicates that as of Saturday, Tesla’s accountants didn’t think they had achieved a net profit. That gave them only one day to cross the line, which means that assuming there is going to be a profit, it will be a razor-thin one. That’s too bad; I was hoping for a comfortable margin, to drive the anti-Tesla cultists into deeper despair buoy up the victory for Tesla fans!
😉

antrik

Don’t read too much into it: I suspect estimations say there is likely profitability, but they simply haven’t tallied up all the numbers yet to know for sure…

It was pretty clear though that they would be near the line, not comfortably above yet.

Jopp

Why does every email in this company leak? It is so simple to find leakers (just change small parts of the email for each department/team, etc.) or does Musk now use “leaked emails” instead of twitter?

The question is not, if they make a profit, but how high the RoI will be.

Get Real

Look another lopp is moving the goalposts again.

Gasbag

“The question is not, if they make a profit, but how high the RoI will be.”

Have you forgotten your mantra already? Remember Tesla is supposed to run out of cash and collapse under the load of debt and bad credit before end of year. Your collective reputation as financial analysts is on the line…..but don’t fret too much. The penalty for being so embarassingly wrong is you have to create a new handle to avoid the stench of your prior posts.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“…does Musk now use ‘leaked emails’ instead of twitter?”

Tesla has done that rather often… just like many or most companies do. This is nothing new, despite your limp attempt at trolling here.

antrik

When an email is sent to ~40,000 people, there is no way not one of them will pass it on to the public. And it’s not even confidential to begin with; so talking about “leaking” in such a case frankly seems rather silly…

AtlantaCourier

Winston Churchill said this in 1942 after a big victory in North Africa:

“Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”

If Tesla reports very strong results this week, what significance will history attach to that date pertaining to fossil fuels? Will it be considered the beginning, the end, the end of the beginning, or the beginning of the end? Or something else, perhaps?

John-EU

The shorts will say it is not sustainable! For me it is the beginning of the end of the shorts!

gagaga

“The shorts will say it is not sustainable!”
Exactly. How many millions do you expect they will need in ZEV sales in order to fabricate this quarter profit ? (given that there will be a profit!)

Pushmi-Pullyu

Hmmm, I don’t think the short-selling FÜDsters will need any ZEV credits to fabricate their millions of B.S. posts to social media attempting to smear the good name of Tesla. 😉

Get Real

And right on que comes gagagagme answering the clarion call of the shorters!

Chris O

We’ll see if those ZEV credits are still significant in Tesla’s overall results.

I suspect it’s a minor sideshow but considering the half hearted efforts of many of the traditional carmakers and quickly increasing ZEV demands over the coming years I would say those ZEV credits are a pretty sustainable side show. Having to compete with a heavy gun like Model 3 means that the incumbents will have to subsidize their compliance cars even more making it that much more attractive to simply buy those ZEV credits from Tesla.

antrik

As the market keeps growing, they will be *less* inclined to just leave the field to Tesla without fight…

ffbj

The great phrase maker, and he made some great ones.
Never in the course of automotive events has one company, done so much for so many with so few.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Despite it being a momentous event for Tesla, I don’t think turning the corner to profitability is going to go down as a significant event in history. Can you name the quarter in which Amazon.com started showing a consistent and substantial profit? I rather suspect only a very small percentage of people could. I certainly can’t!

No, I think the event which is going to signal the true start of EVs replacing gasmobiles is going to be seen, in hindsight, when Tesla got 455,000 paid reservations for the Model 3. That really made the auto industry sit up and take notice, and I think it likely that it caused a real shift in strategy at many legacy auto makers.

I’ve often wondered what will be considered “The Breakthrough”, as it’s labeled on the chart linked below, for the EV revolution. I’m beginning to think it’s Tesla getting an unprecedented number of paid TM3 reservations. But this will only be clear in hindsight as the EV revolution progresses.

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AtlantaCourier
“No, I think the event which is going to signal the true start of EVs replacing gasmobiles is going to be seen, in hindsight, when Tesla got 455,000 paid reservations for the Model 3.” Well, for some of us who have been paying attention, that may be so. For me, the momentous realization came years before that, however. It was when I first saw the picture of the Tesla “Skateboard” chassis on the Tesla website. That picture summed everything up for me in one sudden lightning-bolt strike which made the future clear to me: One motor and a flat battery replaced all that was wrong with internal combustion vehicles. The design eliminated a huge engine block and transmission. Also the transmission tunnel was suddenly gone. It eliminated the gas tank, the exhaust and emission systems, the fuel delivery system and it greatly simplified a clumsy and sloppy cooling system. The setup relegated the traditional braking system to a secondary role to such an extent that it never needs servicing. No longer was there a need to check engine oil, transmission fluid and antifreeze. All these factors amounted to the possibility of vastly improving reliability and slashing maintenance costs. It was… Read more »
The Woodster

AtlantaCourier, what a great posting. Perhaps my favorite of the year on InsideEVs. So true, all around.

G2

Well said Sir!

zzzzzzzzzz

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Pushmi-Pullyu

Is that poster on the wall of the Russian troll farm where you work? 😉

zzzzzzzzzz

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Pushmi-Pullyu

Q: What’s another word for someone who keeps copying and pasting FÜD which he finds on other forums?

A: Parrot.

John

“The lady doth protest too much..”

Chris O

Hmm, the little girl whines too much.

Eveplayer77

Every tesla produced is a win for every earthling. Just another car that will never use a drop of gas.

Your Dad

No. We should stop producing cars no matter what the propulsion is.

Rad

Should everyone get off their butt and walk, ride a bike or use mass transit? Yes Are they going to if they can afford a car? No. Therefore the best option is a car that uses as little natural resourses as possible. Electric cars are not perfect, just a better choice.

Rad

chano1

Soon enough, when AI and automation kill most jobs, few will be able to afford a bike. Roller skates are the answer.

antrik

Unproductive work doesn’t create prosperity. Increased productivity does. If automation increases productivity, that means more prosperity for all.

J P DeCaen

So why are Amazon workers on social assistance when Bezos is the richest on 🌏?

antrik

Some analysis suggests that the income gap started widening as productivity gains slowed over the past few decades…

james

Not realistic. I have a 40 mile round trip commute. Not safe or practical to bike/bus/train it. Not practical to move out of my house to be closer when I could get a different job and then move again? I have an EV with solar panels on my house so I have it as about as good as I can practically get it. In a few years I’ll start adding home storage so I can reduce to near zero my grid usage. Everyone should get roof solar, over time we can eliminate coal burning. Just have to overcome storage issues… Solar farms with super heated sodium that last hours after dark, etc.

Rebel44

Mass transit is not always an option (even here in Europe) – I have 90+km (56+ mile) commute that is viable only when using a car.

Will

Here in the States if you not in Chicago San Francisco Boston Philadelphia and New York then transit sucks

DrDauger

Aren’t you violating the Ordnung by your posting online?

chano1

Walking is good for you. Start early for that 30 mile commute.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“We should stop producing cars no matter what the propulsion is.”

You don’t seem to have any problem with using electricity or owning a computer. Isn’t that rather hypocritical?

arne-nl

That line of thinking invariably ends with the suggestion that the poster is a hypocrite unless (s)he commits suicide.

Living is having an impact on the environment. The question is whether that impact x 7.5 billion is acceptable/sustainable or not.

mzs112000

Hopefully they are profitable in Q3, even if it is just by $0.02… One more short seller narrative destroyed…

antrik

They have had individual profitable quarters before… Sustained profitability is what Musk is promising this time around.

(Of course we know that if Tesla achieves profitability in Q3, it’s virtually guaranteed also to be the case the following quarters… But the shorters will try spinning it differently.)

TM3x2 Chris

Every Tesla sold creates a marketing win. People see it driven, people hear good things from the owners, and people wish they could drive one. That’s one of the reasons that Tesla does not need to create the standard advertising campaign. The word of mouth is enough.

Madan R

He mentioned close to profitability, that means still they suffered losses, but much lesser. 2018-Q4 will see the profit, whether that profit will be good enough to compensate the losses in 2018-Q3 is not know.

Will

No investors won’t like moving the goalposts

Pushmi-Pullyu

Investors already know that Tesla making a Q3 profit is iffy, and that a solid Q4 profit is almost certain. Or at least the informed investors know that.

The ones who keep moving goal posts are the Tesla bashers. They’ve gotten oodles and gobs of practice by now!
😆 😆 😆

BEVfan

Give bonuses, not commands. That is no motivation: go work even harder for me because I am a billionaire and I want more.

Will

Work for me harder or you won’t have a job

phEVfan

Which is why all these Tesla execs have been bailing recently. I’ll get out and go work for a company that appreciates my work, rather than brow beats me for nothing more than bragging rights. There are plenty of good companies hiring and paying just as well, without all the drama.

Mister G

Yes but those other companies are mediocre Tesla is unique and transformative, 50 years from now Tesla story will be required reading for all business students CONNECT THE DOTS ON CLEAN AIR WAKE UP EARTHLINGS CO2.EARTH

Doggydogworld

Work your butt off to offset the damage from my stupid tweets

antrik

AFAIK all Tesla employees get stock options — so better results always benefit the employees.

Get Real

Yes, another fact that escapes the shills, shorters and haters here.

William

I love it when my Billionaire Bosses Bark at me, because they know they want to get MOAR!

The kind of money they waist and flaunt (SEC $20 Million) on vanity projects, makes my job that much easier, picking up all the pieces in the wreckage!

LS

Hmm. Doesn’t really make sense. The expectation was a profit. If they’re not there yet then they might hit it with deliveries today. But surely they will only make a very small one either way, so I can’t see how they can possibly exceed wildest expectations.

Either way if they get close or hit profit that is a big win for Tesla

jim stack

Profit are here. They grow so fast that they could have a profit anytime but would have to stop growing.
Do you want a great car or profits?
Save the World or make a few dollars?

chano1

Margins are excellent. Profits require adequate volume sales to shoot past the break-even point. That is already happening. Average M3 selling price in Q3 is approx’ $60,000. These are very high margin sales. 50,000 M3 sales equals $3 billion revenues.Even at a low margin figure of 25%, profits will flow big time, now or in Q4.

antrik

For Q3, they projected only a 15% margin on Model 3. (To raise to 20% in Q4 and 25% in 2019.)

Doggydogworld

Gross margin goal for model 3 is 15% this quarter, not a “low 25%”.

Pushmi-Pullyu

It’s not what we want, it’s what Tesla’s investors want. Tesla needs to continue to borrow money or otherwise raise funds if it is to continue to grow rapidly. If investors turn away from Tesla, that doesn’t help anyone. Not Tesla, not EV advocates, not Tesla fans. The only people that would help would be the anti-Tesla brigade.

Alex

What’s “wrong” with the “model 3 tracker”?
Productions numbers there are “strange”.

Pushmi-Pullyu

It continues to puzzle me that some people seem to think Bloomberg’s Model 3 production “tracker” (actually it’s just an estimator) is anywhere close to accurate. Bloomberg makes it clear that its number are far from accurate on a week-to-week basis. That has been pointed out quite often by now; are people just ignoring the disclaimers?

Here’s an example from Bloomberg’s “Production Blog”, dated Sept. 21:

The biggest problem for our model this quarter has been a dramatic separation between our two datasets. Prior to today’s changes, our model for registered VINs estimated Tesla’s total production at about 87,000, while our reported VINs model estimated a whopping 102,000 cars. We concluded that the reported VINs model had gone off track.

Tesla doesn’t produce cars in perfect sequence—we’ve known that from the beginning and our model accounts for it. What our model doesn’t account for is major gaps in VIN production. This quarter, there appears to be at least two such breaks in the normal order of VIN deployment.

source:
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

Eric

Can I add FSD for $1000 today? Extra profit.

pjwood1

Try it. Only hours left.

Will

👏👏👏

Another Euro point of view

There has yet been a profitable quarter (or two ?) in the past right ? If so I don´t get it why it would be so extraordinary to have another one . If we do have a profit this quarter will a cathedral be built in Freemont ? From “pedo” tweet to “funding secured” to “SEC drama” to “alleluia alleluia dear brothers let’s rejoice we may have some profits this quarter” we at least are being well entertained.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Is there a special shop where you serial Tesla bashers buy moveable goal posts?

So now, Tesla making a net profit isn’t a big deal… despite a lack of net profits always being the #1 complaint from serial Tesla bashers, for literally a decade.

“…we at least are being well entertained.”

Not nearly as well entertained as we have been in the past by your clownish comments. My favorite is where you said:

“How will hubby explain to wifey that their hard won cash just blew up in smoke buying Tsla stock… That may lead to divorce, that to children with substance abuse issues etc.”

https://insideevs.com/vw-ceo-blasts-tesla-low-sales-losing-millions/#comment-1348778

This one also made me laugh so hard I cried:

It took huge resources to make ICE cars that could do 0-60 in less than 4 seconds, with EVs, just take the electric motor of a large elevator and fix it on a steel frame with wheels. It brings costs down so does profit margins.

https://insideevs.com/watch-new-tesla-roadster-accelerate-lightning-quick-video/#comment-1367078

Get Real

And from a serial anti-Tesla clown who is so proud that he drives an Audi “Clean Diesel”, while their CEO sits in jail nonetheless from that con-job! Snicker, snicker.

Another Euro point of view

“So now, Tesla making a net profit isn’t a big deal”

No.

Specially an isolated fabricated tiny profit using ZEV credits sale. Now if we have a profit posted every quarter as from now then, yes we could start to donate for the building of a cathedral and give Tsla a valuation according to it (probably a lot less than now).

arne-nl

“an isolated fabricated tiny profit using ZEV credits”

Keep the faith, man!

But this is starting to look more like: “How will euro PoV explain to wifey that their hard won cash just blew up in smoke shorting Tsla stock…”

Another Euro point of view

You all seem madly in love with my past posts, it never occurred to me that it could be possible. Maybe its publishing material. If ever I do publish them I swear I will send to each of my best fans here (PuPu, get real and you for a start) a copy with a sweetheart handwritten note on first page.

chano1

What the market wants is a steady trend of rising, or at least repeated profitability. When you have profit, a meaningful P/E can be calculated. Even if T misses on profit in Q3, it will be the last time that happens. After ignoring profit for a long time, Musk is clearly on the case now.

The Electric Israeli

That’s the Elon Musk I want to see. Not the one who gets in trouble with the SEC for going private, when nothing was secured. That is the spirit we all love. This is the video I made today about the SEC settlement. It is the best thing that happened to Tesla and Musk. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ih2NVwOEwZA&t=2s

ffbj

Congratulations on the new Model 3.

Mark Baum

Wait a minute… This reminds me of an email he sent out exactly some 2 years ago:

“I thought it was important to write you a note directly to let you know how critical this quarter is, The third quarter will be our last chance to show investors that Tesla can be at least slightly positive cash flow and profitable before the Model 3 reaches full production.”

and

“It would be awesome to throw a pie in the face of all naysayers on Wall Street who keep insisting that Tesla will always be a money loser!”

We all know how this turned out.

Alistair

It turned out well? It was the last quarter of profit before Model 3 reached full production, as he said. They did post a profitable quarter.

Mark Baum

Just to burn through some $4 billions afterwards. I have a feeling that this might happen again. If thus turned out well for you… well, good for you 😎

antrik

The OBVIOUS difference is that back then, he explicitly said it would be a one-time profit before Model 3 CapEx sets in (you quoted that part yourself); while this time, he says it’s the beginning of sustained profits.

arne-nl

Ramping Model 3 would bring Tesla in the red again. Everybody knew. Even Elon predicted that. You’re rewriting history.

sandbun

Wait, they had to go all out, setting it up so they had a ton of local quick deliveries and selling their demo cars (which they’ll need to replace next quarter) and they still needed a big push on Sunday to hit profitability? That’s disappointing.

Alan Campbell

It sounds like Sunday is gravy and profitability will be had by Saturday! This is going to be BIG!

Ron M

I don’t understand why all the other car manufacturers don’t just pay a portion of the cost of Tesla’s charging systems and provide there vehicles with adapters.
Why invest money to build another charging system when one exists. Use that money to design and build EV’s people want.

BEVfan

Because they don’t want to be at Tesla’s hand. Why doesn’t Tesla want to go with everybody else? Let them develop it by themselves, maintain and upgrade. That is a huge price to pay if you want to be “special.”

antrik

You are rewriting history. When Tesla started building their Supercharger network, there *was* no one else interested in anything like that.

Mister G

And to this day legacy manufacturers are not spending on charging networks

antrik

That’s not true. There is EA in the US, and Ionity in Europe. (While the former was mandated by the Dieselgate settlement, the latter is a voluntary initiative of several legacy makers.)

antrik

Oh, and Porsche is additionally building their own stations.