Jaguar Considers Becoming Electric-Only Within Next Decade

OCT 12 2018 BY JEFF PEREZ 70

The I-Pace was just the jumping off point.

Everyone wants to take on Tesla, it seems… or maybe certain companies just see the benefit of electric motors over internal combustion engines. Whatever the case, Jaguar might be the latest in a laundry list of brands to do so. Following the initial success of the I-Pace, the British marque could switch to a fully electric lineup in as little as 10 years.

As first reported by Autocar, Jaguar might phase out all of its internal combustion engines in the next five to ten years in place of a fully electric lineup instead. Alongside the I-Pace, the outdated XJ will also be replaced with an electric offering, and the XE and XF could be replaced with similarly sized crossovers to compete with the all-electric Audi E-Tron.

In a separate interview, design boss Ian Callum said that the new electric XJ will be a big step up from the current model – not just in terms of powertrain options, but also looks. “The design has to signify the message of a sports car. It’s not just a three-box sedan. It’s something people wanna get into and drive. And that has to be a message of its shape,” he said.

The E-Pace and F-Pace might make room for a brand-new I-Pace in 2025, and the mid-engined J-Pace supercar – which should show up sometime in 2022 – won’t stick around for long. Jaguar will likely kill off the hybrid car in 2027, leaving only electric vehicles in its lineup moving forward.

With four or five fully electric models in its lineup by the late 2020’s, Jaguar could sell up to 300,000 vehicles per year, according to the report. The switch to full EVs could also affect Land Rover, which will shift most of its pure gas engines to 48-volt hybrid systems similar to what is already available in the Range Rover Sport P400e.

Even with all the information provided in this very in-depth timeline, plans could change between now and the next two decades. Factors like sales – or lack thereof – could ultimately decide Jaguar’s fully electric future.

Source: Autocar

Categories: Jaguar

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70 Comments on "Jaguar Considers Becoming Electric-Only Within Next Decade"

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ab

Wow, they might be the first British manufacturer to produce reliable cars that don’t leak a quart of oil every other day!

Sammy

My old series-1 Landy never leaked oil. Coolant was another matter 🙂

Lou Grinzo

Sure, but have you seen the way the I-Pace leaks electrons all over your garage floor? Looks like a big puddle of mercury.

EV Tart

It leaks while driving. hence the low efficiency….

Change

.

Dima

Also the first (not quite affordable) EV that I was actually drooling about a little (because of its really cool, subtly conventional aesthetics).

John

“We’re 60-90% sure that In 3-5 years we’ll be 70-100% sure that we’ll likely be 100% electric within the next 10 years.”

antrik

Hey, at least they are seriously thinking about it… Contrast that with BMW’s 15% in 2030 claims.

John

My comment was that I don’t think they are seriously thinking about it.

Roy_H

According to my prediction, if they don’t do this, they will be out of business. I have updated my prediction graph based on InsideEV sales scorecard with latest Model 3 accelerating BEV uptake.
https://insideevsforum.com/community/index.php?attachments/bevsales-png.2620/

Cypress

Curious why you think PHEV won’t be more? I think they could make up a significant chunk.

Roy_H

Just my opinion, but here is how I got there. I believe that BEVs will take over just like CDs replaced records, DVDs replaced VHS tape, digital cameras replaced film, flat screen TVs replaced CRTs. None of these just went to 70% and stopped with there still being 30% big fat TVs still for sale. But there is other examples like cell phones have not replaced all land-line phones. Anyhow I arbitrarily set BEVs to reach 100% and used an S-curve to get there. Similarly I see PHEVs as a stepping stone, not a permanent solution so I assigned a bell-curve. I used InsideEV’s data to match the BEV S-curve as close as I could for the years we have data, then using the same mid point for the bell-curve to the PHEV data. I honestly expected it to go to maybe 20% but got best match at only 4%. Of course this may change and I will follow for several years.

arne-nl

“But there is other examples like cell phones have not replaced all land-line phones”

That’s only because you don’t have to purchase a new landline every 10 years or so, at high cost. If that were the case, landlines would be gone long ago.

In reality it costs next to nothing to keep the wire in the ground (although I believe most lines in the US run above ground, but never mind, I digress). And that wire has found a second life for internet access.

Roy_H

I should have been more specific, I meant land line phone, not the wire, which as you say has found new value. Most businesses find them more useful than cell phones on people’s desks etc.

tko

Land lines in many businesses are actually ip Phones.

Dave100e

I think you’re making a mistake comparing consumer electronics with motor vehicles. All of the examples listed above are new technology replacing old technology, that new technology also brings clearly better performance and general upgrades across the board. EV’s aren’t new technology, its an already existing technology competing against a technology that is fundamentally ingrained into society. On top of that, to a normal customer (safe to say most of us on here are exceptions and do not represent a regular customer) the EV tech we have now actually comes with some compromises which people have never had to deal with before.

You’re also not taking people into account. Some people are set in their ways and simply do not want an EV.

Brian

Gimic

William L

Very smart move for Jaguar, hope they can accomplish the transition to full EV line up sooner.
Tesla already proved to sell more cars than Jaguar world wide combined, so the market for EVs is definitely there.
It will take bigger manufacture much longer time to transition to full EV, give a rare chance for smaller brand like Jaguar to move first and gain EV market share.

CDAVIS

@ William L said: “…It will take bigger manufacture much longer time to transition to full EV, give a rare chance for smaller brand like Jaguar to move first and gain EV market share.”
———

+1

Considering automotive is undeniably transitioning to EV, a car maker gaining EV market share today means gaining an advantage to take a bigger automotive market share tomorrow. The EV transition is not static, either a car maker is today creating and advantage or disadvantage for themselves to compete in EV which aside from four wheels being on the car is a totally different business model than ICE.

CDAVIS

This Article Headline:
“Jaguar Considers Becoming Electric-Only Within Next Decade”

Vs.

Recent Article Headline:
“BMW Exec: 85% Of Our Cars Will Still Have [ICE] Engine In 2030”:
https://insideevs.com/bmw-exec-85-cars-engine-in-2030/

… I’d wager within next 10 years the car makers that most aggressively fully transition to EV will pick-up market share at the expense of those car makers that do not.

DrDauger

I suggest a third possible reason: It’s economic for Jaguar to consolidate onto one drivetrain type as soon as possible. They’re being smaller is an advantage in that they can ditch ICE sooner than, say Toyota or VW.

Doggydogworld

It’s taking more and more ICE R&D to meet pollution controls. That puts a small outfit like Jaguar is at a disadvantage.

ttt

Yeah, and it’s relative. Businesses, in general, look out for theirselves. The ones that are faster to move suggests they *have* to. Of course, not every business is smart, and some will miss the boat.

Mike

Yup. Good point. If you don’t have to maintain a presence in the low margin economy space (VW, Fiat, Ford, Honda) then a bet on a full EV future is probably wise, especially given that your competitors (MB and BMW) are taking the opposite bet.

Someone will win, but it won’t be both. The problem is you have to choose now and suffer the short-term consequences

antrik

MB is not exactly taking the opposite bet… They are cautious — but at least they are working on a dedicated platform with various models based on it pretty soon; and they are expecting 25% BEV share in 2025 IIRC.

Andy

MB isn’t cautious! They are super-cautious. Compared to the e-tron, the EQC is a disaster. Audi is going to outcompete MB heavily!

antrik

Yeah, just like Porsche said they won’t develop any more combustion cars beside the 911 once they switch their lineup to fully electric a few years from now, since developing both power trains in parallel would be too expensive…

BoltUp

Just do it!

Andy

“and the XE and XF could be replaced with similarly sized crossovers to compete with the all-electric Audi E-Tron.”

Are you sure that’s right, and you don’t mean the E and F Type?

The XE and XF are saloons/sedans, while the E and F type are the ICE crossovers.

That seems to be what Autocar are saying, but that makes little sense, Jaguar getting rid of one of their current crossovers, only to replace it with a crossovered version of one of their saloons/sedans, while not replacing that saloon/sedan.

Chris

The f type is the new sports car replacing the classic and iconic e type sportscar from the 60s. They’re definitely not crossovers

EV Tart

Sell EVs or Die. Its not that complex…… Specially for Jag and other Luxury , and decent performance cars…

Nelson

I’ve heard Elon Musk use the phrase ,“If you can’t beat them, join them.” Someday a Tesla competitor will realize they will be more successful selling EV’s if they partner with Tesla with regards to the Supercharging Network. Just license the Tesla charging protocol, use the Tesla charge port in your vehicles, and pitch in to support and expand an already existing worldwide network.

NPNS! SBF!
Volt#671 + BoltEV + Model 3

Andy

Or even better, put some money into the pot for the open standard – CCS – which is what most of non Tesla manufacturers are doing.

JoeInTheUK

The CCS standard doesn’t need money, charger networks do.

robus

I really thought Jaguar would be the first. I don’t understand why no one has signed on. It seems like a no-brainer?

Cypress

Tesla’s terms must not be attractive. People will call me a troll or Tesla short, but I’ve always thought both the “all are patents a open” and “join our SC network” were mostly marketing and PR and not really serious. Brilliant marketing, don’t get me wrong.

antrik

I don’t think so. Elon is very vocal about moats being worthless.

Chris

Because it costs a lot of money to switch over all production lines. Jaguar has less to lose than others so this could be the chance for them to become bigger. Just need Tata to help them with the capital

dgate

Drove the I-Pace recently on a disused airstrip and it was very impressive accelerating fiercely with a full load up to the ton with more to offer. As it wasn’t my car I went into regen which is very strong allowing one pedal driving however it does have creep unlike my i3 which comes to a full stop.
Having driven a few electrics the I-Pace is one of the best, they have a winner.

robus

Why were you concerned about regen?

G2

Consider quickly, or die.

MaartenV NL

Just replace those FFV as fast as you can.
Once your customers know what an electric drivetrain does, it is bye, bye to your current line-up.

Antonio Briz Ena

What initial success of i-pace?
Expensive, small inside, low efficience….Tesla is success. Jaguar not.

antrik

Long waiting lists with thousands of pre-orders in various markets certainly make it a success… It’s not quite a Tesla; but it’s close enough — better than anything else on the market, and unique in its own niche. Plenty good to sell very well, apparently.

Dima

It’s been better reviewed than any Tesla though, excepting the Model 3. It received very very good reviews, including from motor journalists who are usually sceptical of EVs. And the I-Pace is aesthetically, the most beautiful looking (non-Rimac) BEV in production so far.

Dima

The I-Pace is an absolutely beautiful looking car. It’s also been very, very well-reviewed so far, and it even won over many sceptical motor journalists who would usually never praise an EV.

Sammy

It is not a Tesla and that makes it different enough to be a success.
Not everyone wants a Tesla or their minimalist design.
Vive La Difference

Loboc

10 years is pretty fast unless these cars are already in engineering. I’m surprised that luxury marques such as RR aren’t dumping their V-12s in favor of superior EV technology.

And now Cadillac builds a clean sheet turbo V-8?!? What tea leaves are they reading?

antrik

10 years is about two generations… More ambitious than some other makers for sure, but not exactly much haste.

Milfan

Please talk about the next 2-3 years rather than 10 years. Ideally they can set on plugins with different ranges. Like 30, 50, 70 miles or even 10, 30, 50 miles.

For those who have very short commutes, a 10 mile range should be good enough.
And even for someone who has 20 mile round trip commute and there is a charger in office parking lot, a 10 mile range is enough.

antrik

I take it you are talking about PHEVs… Does Jaguar even have any PHEVs in their lineup right now?

This is about a plan they are considering right now — so by the nature of automotive development cycles, results of it won’t make it to dealers before some five years from now…

Dave100e

The original Range Rover PHEV was released in 2013. The newer P400e was released last December.

If you want to talk the next 3 years, in 2019 there will be an updated P400e, a PHEV Evoque and around 2021/22 the new fully EV XJ should be released, along with other vehicles sharing that platform. MHEV and PHEV’s are being rolled out across the whole range over the next 3 years and anything that is currently not able to be EV’d will have electrification designed into it’s architecture.

Jaguar did announce all of this a while ago, so it’s not exactly open for speculation.

Gazz

What about that brand new ring factory in Wolverhampton?

Cypress

Why turn the XJ Into a sports car? They have the F-Type. Electrify that.

Would be great if they did an electric E-Pace at a similar cost to their current model.

wavelet

Looks like a really, really, really premature discussion on Jag’s part.
They haven’t even sold 1300 EVs yet, and none of them has been on the road for even 3 months. They need to wait how the cars hold up , whether customers still like them a year from now and how the business aspects look (not a knock on the company — this is true for any new model, certainly an all-new platform, from any company).
On the face of it, 10 years is far too quick… A lot of their customer base is conservative, and will take time adapting to EVs.

EV-A

“A lot of their customer base is conservative, and will take time adapting to EVs.”

I reckon they are getting a lot of attention outside their regular customer base. Besides, Jaguar has a lot more demand for their i-Pace, than production capability allows. It makes sense for them to respond to this “newly found” demand and electrify their entire offering.

Dima

Even many sceptical motor journalists fell in love with the I-Pace when they reviewed it. It was very very well reviewed.

Moreover, they have plenty of orders. Waymo alone have ordered 20,000 of them. The problem won’t be demand, but supply.

wavelet

I still don’t see how. Even if demand is wonderful and the EVs make money, it still takes time and lots of money to convert. 10 years is too short for products whose life is >11 years on average.

Dave100e

They haven’t only just started development last week. They had a PHEV available in 2013. The i-pace didn’t pop up overnight. They’re years into developing the new EV platform and most of the current line up is due replacement within the next 5 years, it’s the perfect time to convert.

antrik

Are you suggesting the cars might start falling apart in a few months, and everyone will cancel their outstanding orders?…

wavelet

Sigh.
No, of course not (there was such a period in Jag’s history, but it was decades ago).
But there’s a big difference between that, and optimizing performance/economy/production engineering/business issues, implementing the lessons learned. Committing a radical change in a heavy-production company in 10 years has no precedent. Most auto factories amortize over 20-30 years… They also need to support and service the current ICE installed base. Not saying they can’t go 100% electric, just that it’s the type of thing that takes 25-30 years, not 10.

antrik

If the legacy makers really can’t make the switch faster, they will just lose massive market share to upstarts. It won’t significantly slow the transition.

Dima

The I-Pace appears to be a masterpiece of a car though. Now it’s just a question of whether they can overcome their production (battery) constraints, and delivery them in any large numbers (and not just to Prince Charles).

Dima

The Jaguar I-Pace is easily the most desirable and aesthetically attractive BEV built so far (with the exception of some rare and unattainable Rimacs).

However, when the Porsche Taycan comes out, the Jaguar I-Pace could lose that crown.

Undertaker

It performed pathetically against Model X in range test..

Dima

And the Model X “performs pathetically” against a Skoda Octavia with a full tank of petrol. So what? It’s the same argument style people use against EVs. Once the electric range matches your needs (which these cars would for me – I never drive more than 80 miles in a single journey), then other considerations come into play.

The Jaguar I-Pace drives well, has a 200 mile range (enough for many drivers, particularly in Europe), and looks extremely fly (both inside and out), and that’s more than enough for a lot of potential customers. The only problem facing this car launch, will be whether they can produce enough to match the demand (especially as Waymo is ordering 20,000 of them).

antrik

Let me remind you that looks are subjective. I for my part consider the Tesla Model X and especially the Model S way more attractive than the I-Pace.

(Model 3 too — though by a smaller margin…)

Dima

If you look at the I-Pace Forums, you can see people are starting to receive deliveries, although there are production constraints.

The customers seem very happy with the cars though.

Dima
Dima

The I-Pace was even featured on Fox News.

EVs are definitely getting more prominence and positive coverage in the media this year.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fkRBQfeZHoM