The recent data about production indicates that the Tesla Giga Shanghai plant is running at full speed, noticeably exceeding sales.
If such a rate would be maintained over 12 months, the annual production would be at about 1,050,000 million, compared to over 750,000 of declared manufacturing capacity. That does not surprise us, as there were reports that Giga Shanghai would be able to produce even 1.1-1.2 million annually (or 100,000 per month) after the summer upgrade of the plant.
Nonetheless, Reuters noted that production is noticeably exceeding sales in recent months. In October, the gap amounted to 16,002 units (71,704 sold locally or exported versus 87,706 produced). That comes on top of a 9,095 gap in Q3.
Difference between Giga Shanghai production and wholesale sales:
- Q3 2021: -4,174
- Q4 2021: 1,181
- Q1 2022: -3,287
- Q2 2022: 2,646
- Q3 2022: 9,095
- October: 16,002
According to the article, Tesla does not have a significant car inventory compared to established manufacturers (and their dealers), but it might be another sign that the supply/demand proportion changed.
We already saw how Tesla's order backlog dried out in China, which prompted the company to lower the prices of the Model 3 and Model Y in China and add some additional incentives to increase local sales. Export is also at a record high level to keep the plant busy.
In October, Tesla sold in China 2,809 Model 3 (up 566% year-over-year, from a very low base) and 14,391 Model Y (up 8%). So far this year, the Model 3 noted 102,409 local sales (down 9%), while the Model Y was at about 233,910 (up 120%).
For reference, in 12 months of 2021 and 2022, Tesla sold, respectively, over 138,000 and over 150,000 Model 3. Sales of Model Y in 2022 amounted to nearly 170,000. It means that the Model 3 results are mostly flat, while the Model Y is still growing.