2020 should bring an increase in Tesla EV sales by some 40% compared to 2019.

In 2019, Tesla delivered a record number of 367,656 electric cars (49.8% more than in 2018) and this year it targets sales of more than 500,000!

The company released an expectation that the Model 3 ramp-up in China and Model Y launch in the U.S. should allow it to "comfortably exceed 500,000 units".

"For full year 2020, vehicle deliveries should comfortably exceed 500,000 units. Due to ramp of Model 3 in Shanghai and Model Y in Fremont, production will likely outpace deliveries this year."

During the past quarter (Q4 2019), the company sold more than 112,000 cars and was producing EVs at the annualized rate of over 415,000 units. With the upcoming changes at the Tesla Factory in Fremont in mid-2020 and the Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai, the goal of 500,000 EVs shouldn't be a problem.

In Q4, the annualized total vehicle production rate in Fremont was just over 415,000 units, about the same rate as the factory under NUMMI reached in its peak year of 2006. We achieved this production rate in spite of Model S/X running on a single shift and before the start of Model Y production.

Tesla Q4 2019 results:

  • Production: 104,891 (up 21% year-over-year)
    • Model 3: 86,958 (up 42%)
    • Model S/X: 17,933 (down 28%)
  • Sales: 112,095 (up 23% year-over-year)
    • Model 3: 79,703 (up 42%)
    • Model S/X: 19,475 (down 29%)

Tesla Model S/X/3 Deliveries (quarterly) – through Q4 2019 + forecast for 2020

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More than 500,000 cars annually means at least 125,000 cars per quarter on average - for example, it might be some 100,000 in Q1, and 150,000 in Q4.

Overall, Tesla EV sales should expand in 2020 by roughly 40% year-over-year.

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