During the fourth quarter of 2022, Tesla managed to once again increase its market share, despite various challenges that required actions to boost sales (and ultimately led to price cuts in January).
According to the industry data (trailing twelve months), Tesla's market share in the United States/Canada (counted together) appears to be somewhere above 3.5 percent and is heading toward 4 percent. We guess that this level will be easily achieved in 2023, as the company benefits from price cuts (and federal tax credit in the US).
In Europe, Tesla's market share exceeded 2 percent for the very first time in history. Perspectives to improve this result are good, because the local production of the Tesla Model Y will increase, prices were lowered and the model qualifies for incentives in Germany (Europe's largest EV market).
In China, things appear to be more complex and the progress slowed down in recent quarters, preventing Tesla from reaching 2 percent market share.
Tesla's market share is increasing mainly because the company is consistently increasing its sales volume (to a new record of 405,278 units in Q4 and 1,313,851 in 2022). In some cases, the market share increases because of the overall market shrunk year-over-year.
In 2023, the company is expected to further increase production and sales - potentially to 1.8 million units - but it's very difficult to forecast anything in a highly volatile economy.
Tesla's long-term target is to increase electric car sales - on average - by 50% year-over-year.
"We are planning to grow production as quickly as possible in alignment with the 50% CAGR target we began guiding to in early 2021. In some years we may grow faster and some we may grow slower, depending on a number of factors. For 2023, we expect to remain ahead of the long-term 50% CAGR with around 1.8M cars for the year."
One thing worth noting is that Tesla already sold more than 3.6 million electric cars globally (since 2008) and its 12-month output improved beyond 1.3 million annually (1.6 million considering only Q4).