A new analysis of Tesla's order backlog and wait times reveals that we might already be past the peak.

According to Troy TeslikeTesla's estimated order backlog as of August 31 was roughly 414,000 cars, which equals about 102 days of production. The numbers are based on carefully tracked Tesla-related stats (production volume, average wait times).

As we can see above, the result is significantly lower than in the March-July period, where it oscillated around 500,000. However, it's still a long way from 250,000+ noted in late 2021 (the average wait times were similar then).

The reduction appears to be associated with the Giga Shanghai and Fremont manufacturing plants, which are now producing more cars than ever.

Troy Teslike notes also that Tesla would like to reduce the wait times to 4-8 weeks (or 28-56 days) to create a better buying experience. It seems that the Giga Shanghai plant - after the recent upgrades - beats that target as the estimated delivery time is just 1 to 10 weeks.

The worst situation concerns the Tesla Model X Long Range (365 days and some 22,000 units) and the Tesla Model 3 Long Range (AWD) in Fremont, which was temporarily removed from the ordering page. Its estimated time is 202 days (some 41,000 units). The Tesla Model Y is also in high demand - especially the Long Range AWD version (167 days in the US).


If the expanded manufacturing capacity will allow Tesla to reduce its order backlog and wait times, it will be a good news for customers. It might also prompt Tesla to reduce prices or to add some new versions of existing models.

Everything depends on the balance between supply and demand. For now, it seems that at least the wait times are shorter.

Nonetheless, that's might not be the case with the all-new models, like the Tesla Semi or the upcoming Tesla Cybertruck.

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