Trip Chowdhry of Global Equities Research recently released a memo to investors that provides a look into Tesla's production and delivery potential for Q2 2022. Despite the automaker's Shanghai plant shutdown, as well as supply chain constraints, it appears Tesla is on track to have another massive quarter.

We are well aware that analysts have been very hot and cold over the years when it comes to Tesla, and the company rarely shares much. This makes it difficult for typical analysts and Wall Street, in general, to put a finger on estimates, and they're often far from accurate.

That said, Chowdhry stands out for at least one very simple reason. He spends time doing personal checks of progress at Tesla's factory in Fremont, California. In the past, the information that Chowdhry has gleaned from "the inside" has proven valuable to people trying to crunch the numbers, and he's been correct with his assessment of Tesla's situation on many occasions.

According to Teslarati, the Fremont factory has an annual production run rate of 600,000 cars, which equates to 150,000 per quarter. Chowdhry's visits to Fremont have revealed that the factory is running at up to 20 percent above its typical capacity, which could mean as many as an additional 30,000 vehicles produced at the factory in Q2 2022. Chowdhry wrote:

“May 2022 is off to an extremely strong Production, Shipments, and Deliveries. Fremont Factory is running 10% to 20% above capacity.”

Teslarati notes that the analyst went on to suggest that “2Q is shaping to be a Monstrous Quarter.” Chowdhry referenced images of logistics lots and car haulers, stating that he's seen at least 20 percent more shipping vehicles than he counted in Q1 2022, and it's still early in the current quarter. 

As we've said in the past, Tesla supporters and detractors have often used drone footage, factory checks, and images of parking lots to support their predictions and narratives. However, after the Tesla factory closure in China, it would make perfect sense for Tesla to ramp up its efforts where possible to make up for at least part of the lost production.

At this point, we'd love to learn about your Tesla Q2 2022 production and delivery estimates. In Q1 2022, the brand produced 305,407 EVs and delivered 310,048.

Will the numbers be higher in Q2? If so, by how much? On the flip side, was the production pause at Giga Shanghai enough for Tesla to have its first delivery "miss" in a very long time? Let us know in the comment section below.

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